The Weekly Take, Issue 148: Still Missing That X-Factor

The recent Manchester derby did not end the way many had expected. Premier League champions-to-be Manchester City lost 2-0 to Manchester United. Bruno Fernandes opened the scoring for United with (as is almost expected at this point) a penalty kick before Luke Shaw sealed the three points for the Red Devils with a second-half goal.

Now, it is true that this result will almost certainly have no bearing on the league title race. Even with the loss, City are still leading the league by 11 points over United with just 10 matches remaining. That being said, the fact that City were nowhere near their best in a match in which they had been expected to make a clear statement to not only the rest of England, but Europe as well, points to a larger problem. This problem is one which has been evident at City for years - it was there long before Pep Guardiola took over as head coach and has persisted to this day.

It cannot be doubted that the Citizens have been extremely consistent over the past decade. Four Premier League titles, two FA Cups, 10 consecutive top-four league finishes, and an average of 82 league points per season - results of which any club would be envious. However, when we take a closer look, some worrying trends become apparent.

During this same period, only once have City advanced beyond the quarterfinals of the Champions League. In addition, City's lowest moments have been particularly disappointing for a club of their stature, especially when considering how they came about. Lowlights include a group-stage Champions League exit in the 2011-12 season, a loss to Wigan Athletic in the 2013 FA Cup final, a dismal 2015-16 Premier League campaign in which they only garnered 66 points and barely made the top four, and a 2017 Champions League round of 16 elimination against Monaco.

The main point is this: there have been times during which City have looked like a well-oiled machine primed to dominate world football. However, when considering all the money invested by owner Sheikh Mansour, it must be concluded that this club has again and again proven to be a paper tiger when the stakes have been at their highest.

On paper, City have all the elements needed to take their place as a team which should be making deep Champions League runs every year while also easily finishing first or second in the league. However, the fact of the matter is that against the very best teams, City just don't have that "something extra" - that additional gear that sees them go from being merely an excellent team to one which plays in a completely different stratosphere.

That's not necessarily that big of a knock on City; I'd say that today, there are only four other teams capable of achieving such a level. These are Bayern Munich, Paris Saint-Germain, Atlético Madrid, and (in spite of their struggles this season) Liverpool. However, if City are to win the Champions League for the first time in the club's history, they need to find a way to reach that level - if they can't do so, claiming the biggest prize in European club football will be almost impossible.

City have also begun to turn, if they haven't already, into a team which only performs as frontrunners. For all of Guardiola's brilliance as a coach, he has not been able to instill a mindset of resilience and grit within City's players. A prime example of this could be seen in their Champions League quarterfinal against Lyon last season. With the score at 1-1 and just 15 minutes remaining, City had to dig deep and tap into their unquestionable quality to finish off a Lyon side which had proven to be surprisingly difficult to put away. Instead, City capitulated, conceding two goals in an eight-minute span and thus crashing out of the tournament.

It isn't impossible to acquire this trait; after years of underachieving and choking, PSG, for example, seem to have begun to do so. However, the key difference between City and PSG is that in City's case, it appears to be systemic. PSG seem to have become a whole new team since giving the "keys" to Kylian Mbappé. City, on the other hand, have spent much of the last decade that the matches have to be played; they are neither won on paper nor with money.

The Weekly Take, Issue 147: The Turnaround Continues

The most notable fixture of this past Serie A matchday was unquestionably the match between AS Roma and AC Milan. Milan came out on top, beating the Giallorossi 2-1. Franck Kessié opened the scoring for Milan from the penalty spot just before halftime. After the break, Jordan Veretout equalized for Roma, but Ante Rebić's winning goal would ensure that the Rossoneri would leave Rome with all three points.

This was an extremely important victory for Milan. A loss would have seen them fall seven points behind crosstown rivals and league leaders Inter Milan and left them with only a very slight chance of claiming their first Scudetto since 2011. However, as it turned out, Stefano Pioli's team registered a victory which helped them keep pace with the league leaders in what has been their best season since the 2011-12 campaign.

Of course, the question has to be asked: after so many years of mediocrity, how have Milan turned it around this season?

One major key to their improvement in 2020-21 has been their attack. Over the preceding eight seasons, Milan had averaged just 1.51 goals per league match. In addition, only once during this span did a Milan player exceed 20 goals in all competitions in a season: Carlos Bacca in 2015-16. The club's nadir up front came in the 2018-19 season, when Krzysztof Piątek was Milan's leading goalscorer - with just nine league goals to his name. This hasn't been the case at all this season, though. Milan are averaging almost two goals per league match with legendary striker Zlatan Ibrahimović on pace to score 22 in Serie A. That would be the largest haul by any Milan player since Ibrahimović himself had 28 in the 2011-12 season.

In the dugout, Pioli has begun to establish himself as a solid coach. After many underwhelming stints in charge of several different Italian clubs including Lazio and Inter, many Milan fans were apprehensive when the Parma-born coach replaced Marco Giampaolo in October 2019. Defying the critics, Pioli has shown impressive tactical flexibility and versatility at the helm of the red half of Milan. Unlike Giampaolo, Pioli clearly understands how to maximize the respective strengths of each key Milan player. Hakan Çalhanoğlu appears to be a player reborn ever since Pioli restored him to his preferred number 10 position. Kessié has thrived ever since dropping farther back in midfield, while Rebić, in spite of his decline in goals scored this season, has been playing far better than he had been under Giampaolo. Though Pioli might not be on the level of the likes of Gian Piero Gasperini or Antonio Conte, he has at last proven that he belongs in a Serie A dugout.

Milan can also be very pleased with the continued development of several of their younger players including Kessié, Davide Calabria, and Rafael Leão. As great as Ibrahimović has been since his return to the San Siro last year, the fact is that the Swede is 39. The "cliff" will come for him any day now; it's also possible that "Ibra" might retire at the end of this season. It's thus crucial that they maintain the progress they have shown to date, especially Leão who, as a striker, is likely to take over from Ibrahimović at some point. Though he might not be a pure centre-forward, he has nevertheless shown the ability to play the position at a reasonably high level.

That being said, if Milan come up short in their bid to win the Serie A title, there is one important point that should not be ignored: their lack of activity in both transfer windows. Their most expensive signing this season was midfielder Sandro Tonali, who was signed on loan from Brescia in September. Milan paid €10 million to sign the 20-year-old. To his credit, Tonali has not looked out of place in the starting line-up. However, most of the club's other signings of note were merely to turn loan deals into permanent ones. In contrast, Inter added the likes of Nicolò Barella, Arturo Vidal, and Achraf Hakimi to their roster; all three have made major impacts as Inter have claimed the driver's seat in their own bid to end a decade-long league title drought.

Nevertheless, even if Milan finish the season empty-handed, they can still look back on this season with pride - this season and last have been like night and day for them.

The Weekly Take, Issue 146: Living Up to the Hype

Almost three years ago, a 19-year-old striker by the name of Kylian Mbappé announced himself as a superstar in the making with a stunning individual display in the 2018 World Cup's round of 16, leading France to a 4-3 victory over Argentina. Since then, however, he has not had a similar signature performance for PSG, largely due to the presence of other elite players such as Neymar and Edinson Cavani.

With Neymar once again ruled out due to a left adductor injury and Cavani having left PSG for Manchester United during the past off-season, the door was open for Mbappé to deliver a signature individual performance for his club. In the first leg of PSG's Champions League round of 16 tie against Barcelona, he did exactly that. Mbappé showcased just why many expect him to become a future Ballon d'Or winner by torching Lionel Messi and company with an electrifying hattrick, leading PSG to a 4-1 victory. PSG's lop-sided victory almost certainly guaranteed them a place in the quarterfinals.

Although this has not been an easy season for PSG by any means, Mbappé has clearly been their standout player. He is on track to become Ligue 1's leading goalscorer for the third consecutive season. Mbappé's contributions to his hometown club's success have been especially important this season because there is a genuine chance that they might lose the league title for the first time since 2017.

Mbappé's talent has never been in doubt. This season, though, he has taken his game to a new level. Despite being the third-youngest player currently at PSG, he has shown maturity and poise rarely seen in a player aged just 22. He is now not only a player capable of making incredible plays at any given moment; his understanding of the game has increased to a point at which he almost always makes the right decision. This is a trait of which not many players can boast; that said, it's one which Mbappé clearly has now.

Mbappé's interplay with Moise Kean has exceeded the expectations of many. PSG acquired Kean during the off-season on loan from Everton. After a difficult first season at Goodison Park, not many expected Kean to play as well as he is right now. However, Mbappé has been able to fine-tune his playstyle this season to blend well with that of his Italian strike partner, and this has allowed Kean to have a breakout season of his own.

This, of course, leads to the question: can Kylian Mbappé lead PSG to its first Champions League title? After all, many of the problems which plague this club are mental above all else. Over the past few seasons, PSG have invariably faltered on Europe's biggest stage when the lights have been brightest and the pressure at its most intense. Although Qatar Sports Investments has spent a colossal amount of money ever since acquiring the club in 2012, they have only once advanced past the Champions League quarterfinals since then. Almost as if to emphasize this point, PSG's most iconic Champions League moment over the past decade was a 6-1 round of 16 capitulation against Barça. This loss caused them to surrender a seemingly unassailable first-leg lead and exit the competition in humiliating fashion.

That being said, there seems to be such a difference between the current PSG led by Mbappé when compared to the club's previous iterations spearheaded by Neymar or Zlatan Ibrahimović. As great a player as Neymar was and is, you just never got the sense that he was the one who would lead PSG to the title they most desired. The same was true of the PSG teams built around Ibrahimović. However, especially after PSG's breakthrough Champions League campaign last season in which they reached the final for the first time, the current squad just seems to have something different which its predecessors never had.

PSG's road to a historic Champions League title will not be an easy one. Reigning champions Bayern Munich remain the overwhelming favourites to defend their title, while Atlético Madrid, Real Madrid, Manchester City, and RB Leipzig will be no pushovers themselves. That being said, should Mbappé continue to hit the heights which many expect him to, PSG might have the best chance they've ever had to land European football's greatest prize.

The Weekly Take, Issue 145: The Historic Season Nobody Is Talking About

This season, one team has thus far put together one of the all-time great league campaigns and in the process emerged as among the favourites to claim a first Champions League title in the club's history.

Yet, in spite of all of this, not many have paid much heed to this club's remarkable feats thus far. As has so often been the case with this club, their achievements this season have once again undeservedly ended up going under almost everyone's radar.

This club is Atlético Madrid; their remarkable La Liga campaign saw yet another victory this past matchday. Atlético registered a 2-1 victory over Granada, with Marcos Llorente and Ángel Correa scoring the two goals that extended Atlético's lead at the top of the league to eight points despite having played one match less.

To put into perspective just how dominant Atlético have been domestically, they are currently on pace for 98 points in the league. This total would be the fourth-highest of all time and the most since Barcelona had 100 in the 2012-13 season. In comparison, Premier League and Serie A leaders Manchester City and AC Milan are on pace for 88 and 85 respectively, while Bundesliga leaders would be on track to hit 91 points if the Bundesliga were played over 38 matches instead of 34.

In the Champions League, Atlético should face little to no difficulty in disposing of Chelsea in the round of 16. From that point forth, no team will want to face the club enjoying what might turn out to be the finest season they have ever had.

Looking at this current Atlético team, one name stands out. The primary reason for their success, the foundation on which this team is built, and the absolute force of nature who had made the Atlético goal an almost-impenetrable fortress is Jan Oblak. The Slovenian is far and away the best goalkeeper in the world and has been so for the majority of the past four years. Ever since Oblak became the club's starting goalkeeper at the beginning of the 2015-16 season, Atlético have averaged 0.65 goals conceded per match - an absolutely remarkable figure in the most attacker-friendly of Europe's four major football leagues. Atlético and Oblak have continued this goalkeeping excellence this season with 13 conceded in their 21 league matches to date. Oblak's mere presence between the posts gives Atlético such a boost that it's almost as though they start every match a goal ahead.

Up front, the 34-year-old Luis Suárez has kept Father Time at bay. The Uruguayan leads the league in goals scored with 16. His acquisition from Barça during the off-season has arguably been the factor most directly linked to Atlético's ascension this season. His arrival at the Wanda Metropolitano not only filled a void vacated by the departure of Antoine Griezmann over a year before; it also dealt a severe blow to the Catalan club's chances to win any silverware this season. Barcelona replaced Suárez by signing Francisco Trincão from Braga. Up to this point, the Portuguese striker has not lived up to his price tag of €31 million. Just to rub it in for Barça, Suárez left on a free transfer.

Perhaps at season's end, this will be the season in which Atlético head coach Diego Simeone finally gets the credit he so richly deserves. Since taking over at Atlético in 2011, Simeone has again and again taken the club to overachievement. However, his relative lack of titles belies his actual coaching skill; despite having just two major titles to his name during this time, the Argentinean is arguably the best coach on the planet today; the only coaches on his level are Jürgen Klopp, Pep Guardiola, and Zinedine Zidane. A Champions League title would make Simeone unquestionably the best coach in the world.

You can't say that many clubs deserve a season like this more than Atlético. This is a club which is superbly run from top to bottom and one in which everyone has truly bought into the system. Despite their relative lack of financial might in comparison to many of their direct rivals, Atlético have once again shown that it can still be done "the right way".

Quietly impressive though they may have been, their success speaks louder than any media attention ever could.

The Weekly Take, Issue 144: Everything that Could Have Gone Wrong Did

In a match with major implications on this season's Serie A title race, Juventus eased to a 2-0 victory over AS Roma. Cristiano Ronaldo opened the scoring for Juve in the 13th minute before a second-half Ibañez own goal sealed the Giallorossi's loss. Roma's loss not only left them nine points behind league leaders AC Milan; they also fell to fifth in the league and thus in position to miss out on Champions League qualification for the third season in a row.

Over the past few seasons, Roma's greatest moment was undoubtedly their iconic 2018 Champions League quarterfinal comeback to beat Barcelona. However, since then, not a lot has gone right for them. Their subsequent Serie A campaign saw them finish the season in sixth place, their worst league finish in six years. The mid-season firing of head coach Eusebio Di Francesco did not do much to improve the club's performance; his replacement Claudio Ranieri, in his second stint coaching Roma, could not lead them to a top-four spot and a Champions League berth.

The moment that signalled the closing of Roma's window as a genuine Serie A contender didn't directly involve them. In the 2018 Champions League final, Real Madrid beat Liverpool 3-1 with the assistance of an absolutely dismal performance by Liverpool goalkeeper Loris Karius. This absolute disaster of a performance prompted the Reds to search for a goalkeeper during that offseason; they finally settled on Roma's Alisson. Since then, the Brazilian has established himself as clearly the second-best goalkeeper in the world, only behind Atlético Madrid superstar Jan Oblak. Despite the high transfer fee he commanded, Roma have not even been close to compensating for Alisson's departure at all.

Alisson has not been the only key player to leave the Stadio Olimpico since 2018. During this period, Radja Nainggolan, Kevin Strootman, Kostas Manolas, and Aleksandar Kolarov all left the club. Of course, player departures from Roma cannot be fully covered without mentioning club legend Daniele De Rossi. After 18 years with his hometown club, De Rossi left for Boca Juniors on a free transfer in July 2019. Though already 35 years old and clearly on the decline by then, De Rossi's departure would surely have had a profound psychological impact on the team. The Roma captain provided leadership and stability which no one else at the club could possibly have.

To make matters worse, the career of a possible star in the making might very well have been derailed before the player had his chance to truly blossom. Since January 2020, Nicolò Zaniolo has suffered not one, but two ACL tears. The Tuscany-born attacking midfielder was named Serie A's best young player of the 2018-19 season after a breakout debut league season which saw him establish himself as a player who might someday emerge as Roma's heir to the great Francesco Totti. However, his progression came to a shuddering halt when he tore his right ACL in a league match against Juve. Astonishingly, not long after he return from the devastating injury, he would tear his left ACL in a Nations League match for Italy against the Netherlands. Even at just 21, it is almost certain that due to these injuries, he will never even approach his once-lofty ceiling.

On a related note, Roma's failure to invest in young talent might soon come back to bite them. At the moment, their two best players are 32-year-old Henrikh Mkhitaryan and 34-year-old Edin Džeko. Though Roma will bank on the continued improvement of Cengiz Ünder and Justin Kluivert when they return from their loan spells, it does not seem likely that either will reach the heights needed to lead Roma to a league title or another deep run in the Champions League (of course, they'd first have to make it back into the top four).

Roma's path back to becoming a genuine force in Italy has been made even more difficult not only by Juve's continued domestic excellence, but also by the recent resurgence of both Inter and AC Milan as well as the improvement of city rivals Lazio. A first league title since 2001 seems further away than ever before. Unfortunately, Roma fans could be in for a difficult next few years.

The Weekly Take, Issue 143: Plagued by an Inferiority Complex

This season's race for the Premier League's four Champions League spots for the 2021-22 season has to be considered one of the most hotly-contested ever. As of this post, the top seven teams in the league are separated by just eight points with barely over half the season played. One of the teams which needed points desperately in order to maintain their pursuit of a top-four spot just missed out on an opportunity to not only do so, but also put a dent in one of their direct rivals' chances.

Everton and Leicester City played to a 1-1 draw at Goodison Park during this matchday. James Rodríguez opened the scoring for Everton in the 30th minute, but a second-half error by Toffees goalkeeper Jordan Pickford allowed Youri Tielemans to equalize for Leicester. Had Everton won, they would have climbed to fourth in the league and overtaken crosstown rivals Liverpool, albeit temporarily with Liverpool due to play against Tottenham next. However, Everton's failure to pick up maximum points saw them remain in seventh. With how tight the league is at the moment, Pickford's error and the two dropped points because of it could prove costly at season's end.

The very fact that it was Liverpool who Carlo Ancelotti's team would have overtaken certainly could have played a role in Everton's failure to beat Leicester. This is a club which, for virtually the entirety of their existence, have been in the shadow of the more storied, illustrious Merseyside club. Over the past 30 years, only twice have Everton finished ahead of the Reds in the league. Just to rub it in for Everton, one of the seasons in which they did so was in 2004-05. That year, despite Everton placing ahead of Liverpool in the league, Liverpool's iconic come-from-behind Champions League victory ensured that the blue half of Merseyside would once again be overlooked.

Further evidence of this inferiority complex can be seen in these statistics: the last time Everton won a Merseyside derby was in 2010, while the last time Everton won an away derby match without being aided by a Liverpool red card was in 1995. These facts clearly point to an inferiority complex which has permeated Goodison Park for decades.

This season was supposed to have been so different for Everton. The off-season acquisition of Rodríguez from Real Madrid as well as the continued expected improvement of players such as Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Richarlison, and Yerry Mina were expected to provide a significant boost to Everton's top four chances. In addition, this season was to be Ancelotti's first full campaign at the helm; surely, one of the greatest coaches in football history could work his magic and make things happen.

Unfortunately, it hasn't quite panned out thus far. After a hot start to the season which saw them briefly lead the Premier League, they have since struggled for consistency. One reason for this can be seen in the relative weakness of their supporting cast. Players such as Pickford, Alex Iwobi, and Gylfi Sigurðsson have clearly underperformed this season. In addition, although his play apart from his goalscoring has been otherwise solid, Richarlison is currently in the midst of an alarming slump in front of the net. With around half the season over, Richarlison has scored just two league goals thus far; he had managed 13 in both of the past two seasons.

Everton will also definitely be ruing their decision to send Moise Kean on loan to Paris Saint-Germain. The young Italian striker is having a breakout season in the French capital. He has already scored nine league goals; more than any Everton player other than Calvert-Lewin has managed to date. Of course, it must be said that Ligue 1 is a far easier league in comparison to the Premier League. That being said, it can't be denied that Everton could really use Kean's input as they push for a first top-four league finish in 16 years.

Going back to the prior point about Everton's inferiority complex, it is somewhat ironic but probably true that if Liverpool were not underperforming themselves this season, Everton would be doing better than they are right now. They know that they have a slight chance to at last emerge from Liverpool's shadow; this in turn might be heaping additional pressure on Everton.

It isn't impossible for them to make the top four; however, their odds are becoming increasingly slim.

The Weekly Take, Issue 142: The Only Ones Who Can Stop Them

At the beginning of each new Bundesliga season, it often seems as though the main question is not about who will win the league title, but instead who will finish second behind Bayern Munich. This is perfectly understandable, given the fact that Bayern have claimed the title for the past eight seasons in a row.

However, it is not out of the question that for the first time since 2012, a new name could end up raising the trophy at the season's end. That team is RB Leipzig. In their most recent league match, Leipzig continued to apply pressure to league leaders Bayern by beating Union Berlin 1-0. Emil Forsberg scored the only goal of the match which saw Die Bullen remain within four points of Bayern.

Even though only half of the season has concluded, every challenger other than Leipzig has fallen by the wayside. Bayer Leverkusen, VfL Wolfsburg, Borussia Dortmund - all three are now too far behind Bayern to mount a serious title challenge. If any team is going to be the one to deny Bayern a ninth consecutive Bundesliga title this season, it would surely have to be Leipzig.

As has so often been the case in recent years, Leipzig's off-season went well. Their most notable signing was Spanish left-back Angeliño, brought in on loan from Manchester City. Remarkably, despite his position, Angeliño is the club's leading goalscorer this season as of this post. After years of either being consigned to City's reserves or being sent out on loan to a host of lesser clubs, he has had a breakout season and become one of the key pieces in Leipzig's title push. Perhaps the only full-backs in the Bundesliga who have been better than him this season have been Bayern duo Alphonso Davies and David Alaba.

Leipzig's front office deserves plaudits for their construction of this team. Despite not having any truly elite players, every piece that they have brought together fits perfectly. A team built around the likes of Angeliño, Dani Olmo, Dayot Upamecano, Marcel Sabitzer, and Nordi Mukiele does not, on paper, seem like one which would be making league title challenges and deep Champions League runs. However, this team's impressive chemistry and cohesion have allowed them to once again exceed expectations. On top of all of this, they do have a player with genuine superstar potential. Although Upamecano did not make the leap to that level as some had expected him to do this season, his ceiling remains sky-high. At just 22, there is no reason why the Frenchman cannot develop into one of the world's best centre-backs before too long.

Of course, the largest part of the credit for Leipzig's success must go to head coach Julian Nagelsmann. Nagelsmann has continued to build his reputation as one of the world's best coaches with another outstanding season. As has been the case in almost every season of his coaching career, Nagelsmann has Leipzig overachieving in relation to what had been expected of them. Despite reaching the semifinals of last season's Champions League, many expected them to be behind teams such as Dortmund, Leverkusen, and Borussia Mönchengladbach this season. While still unlikely, a league title this season would be by far the crowning achievement of a coaching career which has already seen remarkable success even in just a few short years.

All this being said, Leipzig still have to overcome the psychological effect which Bayern exert over all other Bundesliga contenders. Many teams over these past eight seasons have faltered after taking the lead or coming close to Bayern simply because of the mental block which Bayern's sheer dominance has imposed. On top of that, Bayern have the obvious advantage of having the best player on the planet in Robert Lewandowski, who has already scored an astonishing 22 league goals - almost double the tally of nearest competitors André Silva, Wout Weghorst, and Erling Haaland. Clearly, it's going to be an uphill task for Leipzig to unseat the Bavarians and claim a historic first league title.

Leipzig have finished in the top three in three of the last four Bundesliga seasons. However, over those three seasons, they ended the season behind Bayern by an average of 14 points. This season, though, the fact that they are just four points behind at the halfway point is encouraging. It will be difficult, but it could very well be possible.