Monday, September 16, 2019

The Weekly Take, Issue 80: How to Ruin a Season Before It Even Begins

Although the new La Liga season has just started, one of the teams which had been expected to have been contending for a Champions League spot have already ruined their season. They have made a grievous error which will all but ensure that they will fail to qualify for next season's Champions League.

This club is Valencia.

Last week, Los Che fired then-head coach Marcelino and replaced him with Albert Celades - a shocking decision which none could possibly have seen coming. This was especially surprising because the Asturian had been at the helm during a period which saw the club experience an impressive return to form. Marcelino coached Valencia to a Copa del Rey title and back-to-back fourth-place finishes in La Liga. This was a major improvement over the two seasons before Marcelino took over; in both of those seasons, Valencia finished 12th in the league.

Valencia have now become a club in disarray, and this was clearly exhibited in their recent La Liga match against Barcelona. They were completely taken apart by the Blaugrana in a crushing 5-2 loss. They seemed to enter the match with no cohesion, no plan, and no chemistry; these problems can all be attributed to the sudden coaching change. Even players who were usually known to be solid and consistent such as Gonçalo Guedes, José Gayà, and Dani Parejo appeared to be shell-shocked by the sudden turn of events, as they were completely overwhelmed by Barça in every conceivable manner.

The firing of Marcelino made absolutely no sense at all. He had led Valencia to their most successful span in many years. The back-to-back top-four finishes had not been accomplished by Valencia since 2012. Their Copa del Rey title was their first trophy since 2008, when they won the same title. They also made the semifinals of the Europa League with Marcelino at the helm; something they had not done since 2014.

Yet somehow, despite all this success and a team which boasted a cluster of above-average players to make up for a lack of a true star, owner Peter Lim was dissatisfied with the job that Marcelino had done and unceremoniously fired him.

This is a decision which will go on to haunt Valencia. Marcelino had proven his quality as a coach, a fact that was emphasized by his winning of La Liga's Coach of the Year award for the 2017-18 season. Their performance against Barcelona clearly showed that his firing has already had a major negative impact on their league campaign.

Marcelino's firing also has implications towards Valencia's Champions League campaign. Valencia had been placed in Group H which also contains Chelsea, Ajax, and Lille. It is by far the least threatening group of all eight groups - prior to the events that have recently transpired, one would have expected Valencia to have topped that group fairly easily. However, such is no longer the case. Not only will they probably not top the group, it is now in fact looking likely that Valencia will finish bottom of the group and even miss the drop-down into the Europa League which is granted to third-placed teams.

If, as expected, Valencia do poorly in the league and Champions League this season, it could set a domino effect into motion. Player such as Guedes, Gayà, Kevin Gameiro, and Rodrigo, among others, might end up attempting to make their way out of the Mestalla.

There are times when a change of coach is sorely needed. At those times, a new person is needed at the helm to freshen things up and revive the club's flagging fortunes. Valencia, on the other hand, chose the worst possible time to fire Marcelino. There was absolutely no reason to fire him and replace him with the inexperienced Celades, who has never been a head coach of any club before. Already, it appears to have been a calamitous decision that will severely handicap Valencia throughout the current season. It will take a miracle for Valencia to again make the top four.

One would certainly assume that before too long, Marcelino will find himself in the dugout again, but with a different club. All of Valencia's and Marcelino's good work over the last two years might just have been undone.

Sunday, September 8, 2019

The Weekly Take, Issue 79: An Under-the-Radar Contender

Euro 2020 is almost a year away and the 2022 World Cup is almost three years from taking place. Even so, despite the fact that these tournaments are some way from beginning, the leading contenders are all attempting to position themselves to increase their title chances by as much as possible.

However, one of the teams which happens to be a genuine contender to win both has gone under everyone's radar. This team is stacked at almost every position and is loaded with immense talent and skill, but is somehow being slept on by far too many people. It is also a team which actually failed to qualify for the 2018 World Cup.

This team is the Netherlands.

In the latest instalment of one of the most iconic rivalries in international football, the Netherlands beat Germany 4-2 in a Euro 2020 qualifying match. Goals scored by Georginio Wijnaldum, Frenkie de Jong, and Donyell Malen as well as a Jonathan Tah own goal helped the Oranje claim the victory over their eastern neighbours and arch-rivals.

Ever since the beginning of last season's Nations League, the Netherlands have been in fine form. In that tournament, they made it to the final, only to lose to Portugal. On their way to the final, the Dutch topped a brutal group which included France and Germany. Now, in qualifying for Euro 2020, they are well-positioned to advance to the tournament itself.

It has been a remarkable turnaround for the Netherlands. However, the emergence of many players as well as the career revivals of players who had once been overlooked or written off.

When looking at this Dutch team, one of the first things which draws attention is their remarkable defense. Of course, the foundation of this defense, best player on the team, and arguably the best player on the planet is Liverpool centre-back Virgil van Dijk. The Netherlands captain's outstanding play at the back has been one of the primary reasons for the team's upturn in fortunes. Supporting van Dijk in the defensive line are Stefan de Vrij, Daley Blind, and Matthijs de Ligt. In particular, the 20-year-old de Ligt has an incredibly bright future; it may even be the case that the two best centre-backs in the world both happen to be from the Netherlands.

The standout in midfield is definitely Frenkie de Jong. Barcelona's new signing lit up the Champions League last season during Ajax's underdog run to the semifinals. At just 22, de Jong has virtually the complete package for a central midfielder - a gifted passer, careful with the ball, an unforgiving but clean tackler; you name it, it applies to de Jong. The rest of the Dutch midfield is somewhat underrated as well - Marten de Roon, Davy Pröpper, Quincy Promes, and Donny van de Beek often do not receive as much of the spotlight as they likely deserve, as they have all made marked improvements over the last one to two years.

Up front, the two starters for the Netherlands are two players who have completely reversed their prior career narratives in Memphis Depay and Ryan Babel. When Depay signed for Manchester United from PSV in 2015, he was regarded as one of the most exciting rising stars in world football. Unfortunately, it never quite clicked for Depay at Old Trafford, and after one-and-a-half years, he signed for Lyon. However, ever since arriving at the Groupama Stadium, Depay has put his career back on track, re-emerging as a key part of both the Lyon and Netherlands teams alike.

Babel's story is even more remarkable. A 14-year veteran of the Dutch national team, Babel played his first game for the Oranje in six years in 2017. Although regarded as washed-up at the time, Babel only ended up going from strength to strength - in fact, of the 10 goals which he has scored over his international career, half of them have come during the last two years in what has been a remarkable late-career revival.

This Dutch team is clearly more than the sum of its parts. If everything continues in the way that has been shown over the last year or so, the Netherlands will be going places.

Perhaps that long sought-after first World Cup title might be coming sooner that one might think.

Monday, September 2, 2019

The Weekly Take, Issue 78: No, Not That Net

The standout match of Serie A's second matchday of the season was the clash between Juventus and Napoli. Not only did both clubs already have a fierce rivalry, but Juve have also been the reigning league champions since 2012, while Napoli have finished second to Juve in three of the last four seasons; they were third in the other. Furthermore, what was already one of the most heated rivalries in European football recently had extra spice added to it. This past off-season, Maurizio Sarri became the head coach of Juventus; he had coached Napoli from 2015 to 2018. Similarly, Napoli's legendary coach Carlo Ancelotti had been in charge of Juve from 1999 to 2001.

The match lived up to the hype and then some. Juve scored the first three goals of the match; it looked as though the Bianconeri were on the path to an easy victory. However, Napoli mounted an astonishing comeback. The Campania-based club scored three goals in 15 minutes to tie it at 3-3. Unfortunately for Napoli, all their effort would come to naught when centre-back Kalidou Koulibaly scored a stoppage-time own goal to win it for Juve. The Senegalese centre-back connected with Juve striker Paulo Dybala's free kick in just the right way to put the ball past Napoli goalkeeper Alex Meret and clinch the victory for Juve.

Obviously, no player ever wants to score an own goal. They are moments which not only provide a free goal to the opposing team, but will be replayed on blooper reels for months and sometimes even years to come. They also bring about the roasting of the own goal's scorer on social media.

However, it cannot be denied that some own goals are much more consequential than others. Koulibaly's own goal might just have been one because Juve and Napoli are both expected to be among the contenders to win the league title this season. Should Juve go on to win the league by finishing three points or fewer ahead of Napoli (which is a distinct possibility), Koulibaly's own goal would rightly be described as the own goal that won Juve the Serie A title.

Another own goal which had dire consequences for the team of the scorer was that of Fernandinho, who was playing for Brazil against Belgium in the quarterfinals of 2018 World Cup. The Manchester City midfielder stretched out to intercept a Nacer Chadli corner, but was only able to redirect the ball into the back of his own net. The Seleção went on to lose 2-1, meaning that had Fernandinho not scored that own goal, the match would have gone to extra time, in which Brazil may have possibly gone on to win and advance to the semifinals.

Of course, the most tragic own goal ever scored took place 24 years prior to that. It was also scored during a World Cup.

During the 1994 World Cup, Andrés Escobar's own goal scored while playing for Colombia against the United States ended up knocking Los Cafeteros out of the global showpiece. A few days later, Escobar paid the ultimate price when he was murdered in his hometown of Medellín. The murder was thought to be a direct retaliation for the own goal.

On a less sombre note, there was even an own goal which directly caused a team's relegation - the one scored by Pavel Krmaš which relegated Freiburg in 2015. With the score against Hanover tied at 1-1, Krmaš's botched clearance ended with the ball in the back of his team's net. Just to make it even worse for the Czech centre-back, he did this in his last game for Freiburg after eight years at the club from southwestern Germany. Furthermore, the own goal not only relegated Freiburg, but also kept Hanover in the Bundesliga.

Own goals are events that can happen in any football match at any time. They have been scored by everyone from the last man off the bench to legitimate Ballon d'Or candidates. However, regardless of the identity of the player who scored the own goal, what is important for the player in such a situation is having the ability and mental strength to put the mishap behind him and bounce back.

Monday, August 26, 2019

The Weekly Take, Issue 77: The Most Underrated Young Prospect in the World

It is always interesting to track the career developments of young players and finding out if they ever live up to the hype. Some end up fulfilling all the promise they showed in their younger years, while others simply peaked early and never lived up to the expectations that surrounded them.

Today, some of the more promising young prospects who have been receiving considerable amounts of attention include Jadon Sancho, Frenkie de Jong, Kylian Mbappé, João Félix, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Matthijs de Ligt, Christian Pulisic, and Luka Jović, just to name a few.

However, there is one young player who has consistently gone under the radar. It may be because he doesn't have a flashy playstyle, doesn't play for a glamorous, big-market club (in fact, his club is despised by most in the league in which he plays), and has never commanded anything approaching the fees paid out to sign some of the players just mentioned.

Still only 23, this player has been on a clear upward trajectory and has established himself as a rising star, but seldom receives the credit which he deserves.

This player is RB Leipzig striker Timo Werner.

Leipzig began their Bundesliga campaign on the right track. The Saxony club registered a 2-1 victory over Eintracht Frankfurt in the first league matchday of the season. Werner played a key role in the victory by scoring Die Roten Bullen's opening goal. He posed a major threat to Eintracht's defense throughout and combined well with strike partner Yussuf Poulsen.

Despite his young age, Werner has been quietly impressive for Leipzig ever since he joined the club in 2016.

In 95 Bundesliga games for Leipzig, Werner has scored 52 goals, with 21 of those coming in his breakout first season with Leipzig in 2016-17. He has been one of the Bundesliga's more consistent strikers over this period and was deservedly named as part of Germany's ultimately doomed World Cup squad.

However, despite his poor World Cup, he has been impressive for Die Mannschaft as well. In a team loaded with talent up front, Werner has already amassed 25 caps and 10 international goals at the age of 23. He was also the top scorer in the 2017 Confederations Cup.

There is every possibility that Werner might be primed to take his game to the next level soon. Werner already possesses impressive speed, ball control, and finishing skills. If he were to refine his decision-making and improve his passing a little more, he might very well become one of the most feared strikers on the planet.

Werner also holds three "youngest" records in the Bundesliga. He is the youngest player to score at least two goals in a game, to play 100 games, and to play 150 games.

Having already achieved all of this, it is surprising and something of an injustice that the Stuttgart-born player is seldom regarded as one of the brightest young prospects in world football, because he clearly is.

It must be kept in mind that if his career were to follow the trajectory of most players, he is still four to six years from his absolute peak. The fact that he already has such an impressive record in a major league for one of its leading clubs should give Leipzig fans much excitement and anticipation for what he might achieve in the years to come.

This excitement should only increase after Werner spurned Bayern Munich to remain at the Red Bull Arena until 2023. Many a young Bundesliga player in his position have been drawn away from other clubs by the allure of the glamour, prestige, history, opportunity for trophies, big market, and of course the money which the Bavarian giants are able to offer. However, such was clearly not the case with Werner, much to the delight of Leipzig fans (and the chagrin of many of other Bundesliga clubs).

Given all that he has already accomplished in his young career, it is evident that Werner could easily go on to become one of the best players in the world if his career continues on the path on which it has been. It's time he got his due - he has undeservedly gone under the radar for far too long.

Tuesday, August 20, 2019

The Weekly Take, Issue 76: A One-Season Wonder?

One of the biggest surprise packages in European club football last season was Getafe.

Last season, the club based in central Spain set a club record by finishing fifth in La Liga, narrowly missing out on a first-ever Champions League spot and ending the season ahead of more established teams such as Athletic Bilbao, Real Sociedad, and Sevilla, among others. They also reached the quarterfinals of the Copa del Rey.

However, they have started their current La Liga season with a loss. In their opening league fixture, Getafe lost 1-0 to Atlético Madrid. Álvaro Morata scored the only goal of the game to give Atlético the victory.

This match was expected to be the highlight of the matchday with last season's second- and fifth-placed league finishers going head-to-head. As it turned out, though, Getafe were somewhat fortunate to lose by just one goal. They failed to register even one shot on target, completed two passes for every three of Atlético's, and had far less possession than did Atlético.

Although this was the first game of the season, the question now hangs over Getafe's heads: are they a "one-season wonder"?

The history of European club football is rife with examples of teams which enjoyed one amazing season, only for it all to come crashing down the very next.

The textbook example of this is (yes, you've guessed it already) the Leicester City team of 2015-16.

Having finished 14th in the Premier League the season before, nobody could have foreseen what was to come from the Foxes. Led by the likes of Riyad Mahrez, Jamie Vardy, Kasper Schmeichel, and N'Golo Kanté, the club took advantage of slumps suffered and transitional periods undergone by virtually every single one of England's leading clubs to defy the odds and win the league for the first time in their history.

Before the next season began, Kanté was sold to Chelsea, and this proved to be the move that ultimately ruined this Leicester team. Apart from Kanté, the team understandably chose to run it back with virtually the same group of players. The only bright spot of an otherwise dismal season was a Champions League quarterfinal run - they finished 12th in the league and were knocked out early in both domestic cups.

Another example of this phenomenon was Wolfsburg.

In the 2008-09 season, the Lower Saxony club recorded a remarkable upset, edging out Bayern Munich to clinch one of the most hard-fought Bundesliga crowns ever. At the time, it truly seemed as though the sky was the limit for Die Wölfe after winning the league for the first time ever.

The next season, however, the club only finished eighth in the league and were knocked out of the Champions League in the group stage despite not making any major changes to the team. Head coach Armin Veh was fired during the season; he was replaced by Lorenz-Günther Köstner. The only positive for Wolfsburg that season lay in the fact that rising star Edin Džeko topped the Bundesliga's goalscoring leaderboard. The Bosnian finished the 2009-10 campaign with 22 league goals.

One of the more dramatic one-season wonders was Real Sociedad.

In the 2002-03 La Liga season, a somewhat ragtag bunch of players including Nihat Kahveci, Sander Westerveld, Darko Kovačević, and future all-time great Xabi Alonso took the Basque club to second place in the league, the club's best league finish in 15 years.

The next season could not have been more different.

The club slumped to 15th in the league, only avoiding relegation by five points. They were knocked out in the Champions League's round of 16 by Lyon and the Copa del Rey's round of 32 by Alavés. Since then, they have never even been close to replicating the success of that 2002-03 season.

Coming back to Getafe, it is imperative that they do not become complacent and let the success of last season go to their heads. Their performances last season impressed many across Spain and beyond, and at the same time highlighted the excellent coaching of José Bordalás.

The season is still new, so there is ample time for Getafe to bounce back and prove that last season was not a one-off. Time will tell if they establish themselves as one of Spain's leading clubs or if they just happened to catch "lightning in a bottle" for one season.

Monday, August 12, 2019

The Weekly Take, Issue 75: "Crisis" Is Too Mild a Word

It just keeps getting worse and worse for Chelsea.

The West London club were taken apart by a Manchester United team lacking the star power and flashy names of past years. The 4-0 loss was a clear indictment of everything that has gone wrong at Stamford Bridge over the past few years.

Evidence of how far this team has fallen could be seen in the players fielded in their starting 11. The likes of Ross Barkley, Mason Mount, Emerson Palmieri, and Tammy Abraham would not even come close to getting a start for most other major teams. It also didn't help Chelsea that they had been placed under a transfer ban.

The problems had already been mounting in prior seasons. Last season may have been their most tumultuous yet - only the outstanding play of Eden Hazard kept the club relevant, culminating in a rather undeserved Europa League victory.

It doesn't take a genius to figure out what Chelsea's main problem is: ownership. Roman Abramovich is clearly the worst owner in European club football. He has turned a once mighty club into a punchline.

There are some clubs which are outstandingly run from top to bottom. Clubs such as Liverpool, Napoli, Atlético Madrid, and (I may be a little biased here, but even my own) Borussia Dortmund come to mind. Even though these clubs do not always win titles, they are run in such a way that they are set up for success in a sustainable manner.

On the other hand, Abramovich has caused Chelsea to become a club which has turned into the exact opposite of those just mentioned.

The decisions he has made, especially over the last three to four years, have been mind-bendingly bad. Firing coaches left, right, and centre, including above-average to elite coaches such as José Mourinho, Antonio Conte, and most recently, Maurizio Sarri. Bringing out big money to sign average to below-average players; the likes of Kepa Arrizabalaga, Danny Drinkwater, Jorginho, and Álvaro Morata come to mind. Signing players with no regard for how they would fit into the team and its strategy. Not having any patience with young academy players until now, after the transfer ban forced the hands of the club.

The transfer ban as well as the departure of legendary winger Hazard to Real Madrid have made circumstances even more difficult than ever before for the Blues, and there seems to be no way out.

In short, Chelsea are a veritable dumpster fire largely because of the Russian oligarch.

At the moment, the best course of action that could be taken by Chelsea might very well be offloading superstar defensive midfielder N'Golo Kanté who clearly is far too good for this club as well as several others, tear the whole thing down, and rebuild around rising star Christian Pulisic. Of course, this also implies that Abramovich will also sell the team to someone much more capable. It will be a process that may take three or four years, and in those years, Chelsea would be likely to finish around eighth to 12th in the Premier League and miss out on European football entirely. However, it may be the only way that the Blues ever return to becoming a true contender, whether domestically or in Europe.

Of course, this will almost certainly not happen. What is much more likely to happen is Abramovich making yet another ill-advised signing that wastes much of Chelsea's transfer money or perhaps firing another head coach and replacing him with someone even less suited for the position.

When Chelsea signed Pulisic from Dortmund, it was initially hailed as a major coup for the London club and a way for the Pennsylvania-born youngster to truly take his game to the next level. However, it looks as though Pulisic is about to embody the phrase "be careful what you wish for" - he could not possibly have found himself in a worse situation.

As for Kanté, he needs to follow in Hazard's footsteps and get out of Stamford Bridge as soon as he can. His career is in danger of stagnating if he stays at the moribund, directionless, embarrassing catastrophe of a football club that Chelsea has become.

This club may be damaged beyond repair.

Friday, August 2, 2019

The Weekly Take, Issue 74: A Most Unlikely Purchase

Arsenal have always been known as a club who have been cautious in the transfer window.


The Gunners have historically held out on signing big-name, big-money players unless a major opportunity were to fall into their lap. In recent years, players who could be classified as such include the likes of Mesut Özil, Alexis Sánchez, and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang.

This is why it came as such a surprise when Arsenal shattered their club transfer record by signing Ivorian winger Nicolas Pépé from Lille. With a transfer fee of 
€79 million, Pépé is now the most expensive African footballer of all time, beating the record previously held by his new teammate Aubameyang.

Now, while I do not believe that Pépé will play poorly during his stint at the London club, I consider this a mistake on Arsenal's part.

As Pépé is still only 24, his high transfer fee is both the product of current performance as well as projected future potential. However, it does not seem as though he has the ceiling of a true superstar. While this fact might not be a problem in and of itself, when a club signs a player for that high a transfer fee, the club ought to expect the player to be able to deliver at such a level.

Pépé did have a breakout campaign at Lille during the 2018-19 season. He scored an impressive 22 league goals and handed out 11 assists to lead Les Dogues to second place in Ligue 1.

However, it ought to be noted that he did not do this in one of Europe's major leagues. Thus, the level of competition that he faced every week was lower than what was encountered by some other rising stars such as Luka Jović, Joshua Kimmich, Sergej Milinković-Savić, Richarlison, and Leroy Sané, among others. Since the level of play in the Premier League is much higher than that of Ligue 1, Pépé may find it difficult to adapt; in fact, there is even a slight possibility that he never does so and struggles throughout his time in England, though that is the absolute worst-case scenario.

The addition of Pépé to the current Arsenal team also seems somewhat redundant. This is due to the fact that Aubameyang, who is clearly Arsenal's best player, is currently on the roster.

Pépé is a player whose style of play is very similar to that of the Gabonese striker. Able to play on either wing or at centre-forward, Pépé often uses his blistering speed to leave defenders behind him when moving inside from out wide.

This description is almost an exact copy of a description which could have been used to describe Aubameyang, particularly during his Borussia Dortmund days when he was younger and more athletic. Arsenal could easily have used the money spent on Pépé to sign a player such as Richarlison, Jović, Sébastien Haller, or Cengiz Ünder - young players of similar or higher calibre and who are all better fits alongside Aubameyang and Alexandre Lacazette up front.

One area in which Arsenal erred in this transfer window was their failure to make any notable transfers until July 25, when they signed William Saliba from Saint-Étienne. By this point, teams such as Real Madrid, Juventus, and Bayern Munich had all made multiple major signings. Even domestically, the likes of Manchester City and Tottenham had both landed a signing of note well before Arsenal did. This therefore artificially inflated Pépé's price - typically, the later in the transfer window the player is signed, the more inflated the transfer fee.

Now, I don't think this transfer is completely negative for Arsenal. Pépé is a clear upgrade over Alex Iwobi and should move straight into Arsenal's starting 11. There is definitely some potential in him, as was shown by his impressive 2018-19 season. He can definitely be a solid starter at the Emirates Stadium this season.

However, when the player in question is signed for €79 million, you expect much more than just "solid starter". You expect a star, and I do not believe Pépé will ever become one.

If this transfer is anything to go by, Arsenal fans can once again expect a difficult season after a below-par transfer window - a common refrain for the club over the last decade.