Sunday, October 20, 2024

The Weekly Take, Issue 332: Already a One-Season Wonder?

Last season, VfB Stuttgart came out of absolutely nowhere to finish second in the Bundesliga and even finished ahead of Bayern Munich who had won the previous 11 league titles in a row. It was Stuttgart's best league finish since clinching the Meisterschale back in the 2006-07 in one of the most memorable endings to a Bundesliga season of all time. Additionally, Stuttgart finished with 73 points to set a new club record. Stuttgart's 2023-24 season was a remarkable turnaround from their prior campaign when they only avoided relegation to the 2. Bundesliga by beating Hamburg SV over a two-legged playoff.

By far the biggest off-season story surrounding Stuttgart was the departure of star striker Serhou Guirassy to Borussia Dortmund. Die Schwarzgelbe brought the Guinean to Signal Iduna Park for the astonishingly low transfer fee of just €17.5 million. The season before, Guirassy had a breakout campaign, spearheading Stuttgart's rise to second place in the Bundesliga by netting 28 league goals, accounting for more than a third of every league goal scored by a Stuttgart player.

Following Guirassy's departure, Stuttgart have unsurprisingly gotten off to a slow start this season - a point driven home by their capitulation in a 4-0 away loss against Bayern Munich. Stuttgart never looked for a moment as though they even had a chance and were evidently outclassed right from opening kick-off. Somewhat surprisingly, it took Bayern until the second half to make it onto the scoresheet, but they never looked back as soon as they did. Harry Kane scored a second-half hat-trick to seal the victory for Bayern and keep them in first place in the league. Substitute Kingsley Coman then finished things off with Bayern's fourth goal in the 89th minute.

With this loss, Stuttgart are now ninth in the league; their chances of finishing in the top four and qualifying for next season's Champions League are certainly not the best at the moment. Many of Stuttgart's sequences of play in this match summed up how their season has gone thus far. It seemed as though every time Stuttgart would be on the brink of putting something together, they'd inevitably have a misplay and blow a possible chance for a goalscoring opportunity.

To make matters worse, as soon as Kane scored Bayern's first goal in the 57th minute, Stuttgart just flat-out collapsed. That goal seemed to have drained Stuttgart of whatever fighting spirit they might have previously had - something that shows a stark and alarming contrast when compared to this same Stuttgart team from last season. The Stuttgart side of the 2023-24 Bundesliga campaign would definitely not have mentally checked out after going a goal behind but instead have fought tooth and nail to get an equalizer. That was just about the exact opposite of what Stuttgart showed in their collapse at the Allianz Arena.

Of course, much of Stuttgart's drop-off can indeed be attributed to Guirassy's departure from MHPArena. While Deniz Undav and new signing Ermedin Demirović have been pulling their weight up front, neither are at the level at which they can truly step in for an elite player like Guirassy. Though Undav does have four league goals thus far, two of them came in Stuttgart's 5-1 thrashing of Dortmund - a result which had many people thinking that Stuttgart were once again legit and a serious threat to make the top four.

However, there's a case to be made that Guirassy was the best player in the entire league last season. Though Undav and Demirović aren't scrubs by any means, there were times last season when Guirassy all but put the rest of the Stuttgart team on his back, dragging the team to wins that they'd never have had a serious chance of getting without him.

Finally, Stuttgart have been extremely inconsistent so far this season. Their performance against Bayern could not have been more opposite to their mauling of Dortmund a month ago. Stuttgart can't seem to string good performances together - and as a result, they've already lost early ground in the chase for a Champions League berth.

Could it have been possible that VfB Stuttgart caught lightning in a bottle for one season and rode it all the way through? Early signs this season show that it very well could've been the case. While there's still more than enough time for Stuttgart to turn it around, their backs are already against the wall not even a quarter of the way into the 2024-25 season.

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