The Weekly Take, Issue 307: Of Course They Did

At this point, it’s not even remotely surprising anymore.

The latest iteration of the North London derby had both teams entering with something on the line. For Tottenham Hotspur, this match was a clear opportunity to make a further push for a top-four spot and gain ground on Aston Villa in the chase for the last berth in next season’s Champions League. As for Arsenal, a win would put them one step closer to a first Premier League title in 20 years.

This match was just about decided by half-time with Arsenal entering the interval with a 3-0 lead. Pierre-Emile Højbjerg’s own goal put the Gunners one goal ahead in the 15th minute before Bukayo Saka soon extended Arsenal’s lead. Seven minutes before the break, Kai Havertz continued his recent hot streak, adding another goal to put Arsenal three goals ahead.

Remarkably, Arsenal nearly ended up blowing their three-goal lead. After the break, Cristian Romero’s goal kept Tottenham’s flagging hopes alive. Then, with three minutes of regulation time remaining, Declan Rice fouled Ben Davies in the penalty area, allowing Son Heung-min to step forward and notch his 16th league goal of the season. Although Spurs were largely in control of the match throughout the second half, their absolute disasterclass of a first half proved to be too much to overcome.

With this loss, Tottenham’s hopes of a top-four finish are no longer in their own hands. Even if they win out (which would, incidentally, necessitate a victory over Manchester City), if Villa do likewise, Spurs would miss out on next season’s Champions League.

In the early portion of this season, things look at though for once, it would be different at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. After Ange Postecoglou accepted his first coaching position in a major European league over the off-season, it looked as though he had transformed the club entirely even following the departure of club legend Harry Kane to Bayern Munich. With eight wins in their first 10 league matches, Tottenham were in first place and in red-hot form. To use a common metaphor, “the vibes were immaculate”.

Then, as has been so typical of Tottenham over the years, the wheels began to fall off. The losses piled up and Tottenham continued to slide down the league table. Off-season signings James Maddison and Micky van de Ven, who both started the season absolutely tearing up the league, found this level of play unsustainable and regressed to the mean.

There is a reason that “lads, it’s Tottenham” has been a meme for years. Even when it seems as though they have everything going for them, they’ve inevitably faltered under the pressure and failed to deliver. Over the past four seasons, Tottenham only managed to finish in the top four once despite having a squad that could have contended for it every season. To make matters worse, Kane scored 88 league goals over that period, was the Premier League’s top scorer in the 2020-21 season, and almost single-handedly dragged Tottenham to respectability again and again.

In hindsight, Tottenham’s early-season success has clearly been shown to be primarily psychologically-driven. On so many occasions, the hiring of a new head coach leads to an immediate uptick in the team’s results - regardless of the impact of the coach’s actual input. This is because the team believes “there’s been a change, so something must be happening” - which translates into their play and makes them play better. That’s exactly what happened in the period right after Postecoglou took over.

Even if Villa don’t win out, it’s unlikely that Tottenham will either. Having to play against a City team who could potentially use that match to move into position to claim an unprecedented fourth consecutive league title is just about the most difficult match-up possible.

This season was supposed to be different for Tottenham Hotsput. New coach, Richarlison having a bounce-back season after a horrendous 2022-23 campaign in which he managed just one league goal, contributions from multiple new signings, the permanent acquisition of Dejan Kulusevski, and even a new captain with Son taking up the armband. It really did seem as though they were about to transition seamlessly into the post-Kane era. But as has invariably been the case, Tottenham have once again gotten in their own heads and almost certainly blown it again.

The Weekly Take, Issue 306: Sputtering Down the Final Stretch

 The latest edition of El Clásico had a lot on the line. For Barcelona, a win would cut Real Madrid’s lead at the top of La Liga to five points with six matches to be played—giving Barça at least a slight chance of perhaps going on to overhaul their arch-rivals from the capital. As for Real, it was an opportunity to deal the finishing blow in the title race; a win would extend their lead over Barça at the top of La Liga to an almost-insurmountable margin of 11 points.

It took less than six minutes for Barça to open the scoring; Andreas Christensen found the net via a header from Raphinha’s corner. Real would then equalize via a controversial penalty earned by Lucas Vázquez, who was brought down in the box by Pau Cubarsí. Against the belief of many who felt that Vázquez baited the contact by Cubarsí, the referee handed Real a penalty kick which Vinícius duly converted.

After the half-time break, Barça retook the lead when substitute Fermín López finished off the follow-up after Andriy Lunin saved Lamine Yamal’s initial shot. This, however, would be matched four minutes later—this time around, it was Vázquez himself who scored. As the match entered stoppage time and it looked as though a draw would be on the cards, Jude Bellingham scored Real’s winning goal, adding another highlight to his Ballon d’Or case.

Barça, on the other hand, capped off a truly miserable week after having been knocked out of the Champions League by Paris Saint-Germain—and that too after somehow being “Remontada”’d by the Champions League’s perennial choke artists. In general, this entire season hasn’t gone according to plan for the Blaugrana. They’re even at risk of losing second place in the league to fellow Catalan club and this season’s surprise package Girona.

Perhaps the most obvious point of note pertaining to Barça’s failures this season has been their struggles in the transfer market. Largely as a result of the club’s financial difficulties, the only off-season signing that Barça made who moved the needle even the slightest bit was a 32-year-old İlkay Gündoğan signed on a free transfer from Manchester City.

After what’s happened this season coupled with those financial issues, it will be even more difficult for Barça to bring any major names to Camp Nou in the coming off-season. As of right now, the only player of any note to have been linked with an imminent move to Barça is RB Leipzig attacking midfielder Dani Olmo - but even then, if they were to sign him, he would likely be a replacement for Frenkie de Jong who is expected by many to leave Catalonia in the coming off season; Bayern Munich have reportedly taken much interest in signing the Dutchman.

The club’s lack of clarity over the coaching situation hasn’t helped matters at all. Earlier this season, Xavi said that he would be leaving the Camp Nou dugout after just over two years and a half in charge. However, recent reports indicate that there’s a possibility that he might reverse his decision - and to make matters worse, Barça don’t seem to have any successor in mind.

On top of that, Real are now clearly in Barça’s heads. Barça have now lost back-to-back La Liga El Clásico matches by way of a Bellingham stoppage-time goal. Again and again, Barça have lacked the mental fortitude and resolve to deliver against their arch-rivals while Real have dug deep and found something more within themselves - and that’s arguably the biggest reason why the gap now is as large as it is.

If there’s a silver lining for Barça, however, it has to be the latest products of La Masia. The greatest football academy in the world has done it again - this time via Gavi, López, Pedri, Cubarsí, and of course, Yamal who arguably has future Ballon d’Or potential. However, the “metagame” has changed; these days it’s next to impossible to reach the pinnacle of world football with a nucleus that’s primarily home-grown.

At this point it’s a vicious cycle. Barcelona’s financial issues, lack of stability, inability to attract other top players, and declined overall performance have made them a far less appealing destination. While the next off-season will certainly be crucial, it’s almost certain that for Barça, the road back to the top will be a difficult one indeed.

The Weekly Take, Issue 305: A Huge Chance Squandered?

If ever there was an opportunity for Arsenal to establish themselves as a genuine contender to win this season’s Champions League, the first leg of their quarterfinal fixture against Bayern Munich was exactly that. With their Bavarian opponents at their weakest point in more than a decade and struggling for form ahead of their trip to the Emirates Stadium, Arsenal had a clear chance to capitalize and take an important lead going into the second leg in Munich.

Instead, the Gunners came up short as they only managed a 2-2 draw. Arsenal actually got off to a strong start with Bukayo Saka opening the scoring in the 12th minute, only for Serge Gnabry to score against his former club six minutes later and bring the score to 1-1. Then, as he had so often done during his legendary 12-year stint at Arsenal’s North London arch-rivals Tottenham Hotspur, Harry Kane put his name on the scoresheet - this time via a penalty earned by Leroy Sané. Substitute Leandro Trossard would later score Arsenal’s equalizer to ensure that Arsenal would not enter the second leg a goal behind.

For Arsenal, this result can’t be described as anything other than a blown chance. Having a home match against one of the pre-tournament favorites who happened to be in turmoil on and off the field just then while Arsenal themselves lead the Premier League heading into the home stretch as they edge closer to a first league title in 20 years should’ve been exactly what they needed to get the jump on Bayern ahead of the second leg.

Instead, for large portions of the match, Arsenal were clearly outplayed. Arsenal’s back five, goalkeeper David Raya included, were rather shaky for most of the match and could certainly have done more to prevent Gnabry from having the goalscoring opportunity of which he took full advantage. In addition, Saliba’s foul on Sané to concede the penalty capped off a sequence of poor defensive play, particularly from Brazilian centre-back Gabriel.

Up until Arsenal brought in some of their substitutes, things weren’t going so well on the offensive front either apart from Saka. Kai Havertz looked more like the player who consistently underwhelmed during his three years at Chelsea than the player he’s been this season - someone who’s having a “comeback” season in what’s been his best year since leaving Bayer Leverkusen in 2020. As for Gabriel Martinelli, Bayern’s defense had him in their pocket from opening kick-off until he was unsurprisingly yanked in the 65th minute.

The biggest positive that Arsenal can take from this match regards their strategic and tactical adjustments. Mikel Arteta easily outcoached his Bayern counterpart Thomas Tuchel (to be fair, that isn’t a difficult thing to do these days), bringing in Trossard and Gabriel Jesus at just the right times and ultimately ensuring that Arsenal would head to Germany on level footing. The two substitutes would go on to combine for Arsenal’s equalizing goal.

Spearheaded by Arteta who at one point was almost fired from his position, Arsenal’s turnaround over the past two seasons has been impressive indeed. However, Arsenal’s sub-par performance on the biggest stage when the moment arrived highlighted how far Arsenal still have to go to become bona fide Champions League title contenders. The only consolation for Arsenal is the fact that this is the first leg, allowing them to regroup and potentially beat Bayern at the Allianz Arena.

Based on their respective levels of play throughout this season, one would expect Arsenal to take the win in the second leg and advance to the Champions League semifinals for the first time since the 2008-09 season. However, the first leg clearly showed that while Arsenal are definitely capable of beating Bayern away, the real question is if they will have the mental wherewithal to do so as well. It also has to be mentioned that fatigue could play a role - unlike Arsenal, Bayern are already out of contention for their domestic league title and thus can afford to rotate their squad to keep their best players fresh for the second leg.

Of course, with the aggregate score still tied at 2-2, Arsenal can’t be written off by any means. However, should they lose to Bayern in the second leg and exit the Champions League at the quarterfinal stage, this first-leg draw will undoubtedly be regarded as a golden opportunity blown.

The Weekly Take, Issue 304: "Capitan Futuro" to "L'attuale Allenatore"

Not even three months ago, AS Roma’s season was in a clear downward spiral. The Giallorossi had slipped to ninth in the Serie A table having lost three of their past five matches. Over the six Serie A matches leading up to head coach José Mourinho’s firing on January 16, Roma had earned just five points. While there’s no doubt that Mourinho is one of the greatest to ever do it and is easily on the coaching Mount Rushmore, it was also obvious that “the game has passed him by” - he’s just not able to get it done at this level anymore.

Roma replaced Mourinho with Daniele De Rossi - a move clearly intended to appeal to the fans. A club legend who spent 18 years as a player for his hometown club, De Rossi was rather inexperienced in the dugout when he took over at the Stadio Olimpico. His only prior coaching stint had been a four-month gig at Serie B club SPAL between October 2022 and February 2023. To say that it did not go well would be an understatement - De Rossi was fired with SPAL in the relegation zone. With this in mind, there was understandably skepticism despite the element of sentimentality in play.

However, De Rossi has clearly banished that skepticism - in the 15 matches since he’s taken over, Roma have won 10 of which eight have been in the league. Arguably none have been more significant than this matchday’s Derby della Capitale 1-0 victory over Lazio. Gianluca Mancini scored the only goal of the match just before half-time to hand Lazio their fourth loss in their past six league matches. With the win, Roma close in on Juventus and Bologna in the chase for a top-four spot and a berth in next season’s Champions League.

All season long across various leagues, we’ve seen the importance of having the right person for the right club as the coach. Of course, there’s no example more obvious than Bayer Leverkusen, where Xabi Alonso is putting the finishing touches on what will surely go down as one of the, if not the single, greatest single-season coaching performances of all time. To potentially win the “Faux Treble” with an Invincibles league campaign - and with an underdog like Leverkusen to boot - is something that will undoubtedly rank among the greatest achievements in football history.

While not nearly at that same level, De Rossi has been the driving force of an impressive turnaround of his own. Mourinho’s preferred 3-5-2 formation was never really the right fit at Roma, considering the personnel at the club’s disposal. De Rossi, on the other hand, quickly moved to implement a 4-3-3 setup instead - a formation that evidently plays to Roma’s strengths. With this setup, Roma’s full-backs are given additional room for final-third play while simultaneously keeping a tight defensive line.

What’s more, De Rossi’s tactics have given players such as Paulo Dybala and Lorenzo Pellegrini more active roles on the attacking front - and this has translated into goals and wins. Dybala in particular looks like a player reborn; having been written off by many for quite some time, the Argentinian forward is now in his best form since his 2017-18 season at Juventus.

The flexibility that De Rossi has brought to Roma’s tactical approach has to be noted as well. Defensively, he’ll often have Roma pivot from four at the back to five, shoring up the backline with wingers often dropping deep. This is where Bryan Cristante, probably Roma’s most underrated player, comes in. The defensive midfielder’s versatility is exactly what Roma have needed when transitioning from defense to offense, sometimes taking on the role of a box-to-box central midfielder - and De Rossi has leveraged this versatility to great effect.

All of this being said, it’s still too early to say for sure if Daniele De Rossi is the real deal or if this is just the “new coach effect” in play with a regression to the mean on the horizon. That being said, things undoubtedly are on the upswing for AS Roma right now. Considering where Roma were when they hired De Rossi, a top-four finish - which now actually seems possible - would be an excellent result.