Monday, July 31, 2023

The Weekly Take, Issue 268: Wasting No Time Retooling

After suffering a gut-wrenching Bundesliga title loss in the final minutes of the last matchday of the 2022-23 season, Borussia Dortmund's off-season has been eventful indeed. Their off-season has been highlighted by the sale of Jude Bellingham to Real Madrid. One of the most promising young prospects in world football today, the English midfielder had just come off a breakout season for both club and country, landing him a €103 million move to the Spanish capital.

Despite receiving this massive influx of money, Die Schwarzgelbe nevertheless found themselves in a somewhat awkward position: having come so close to the league title just weeks prior, their squad was now far weaker than that of arch-rivals and league champions Bayern Munich. This was particularly true of Dortmund's midfield given not only Bellingham's departure but also that of Mahmoud Dahoud to Brighton & Hove Albion. However, less than a week ago, Dortmund not only shored up their midfield's depth and signed a player tasked with replacing at least some of Bellingham's tremendous impact; they also did so at Bayern's expense.

Dortmund signed Marcel Sabitzer from Bayern for a transfer fee of €19 million. The Austrian midfielder arrived at Signal Iduna Park after having spent the past two seasons as a Bayern player including a half-season on loan at Manchester United. Sabitzer's loan stint was largely due to the fact that he did not receive much playing time at Bayern; had he stayed there, the same would likely have been true in the upcoming season. Primarily a central midfielder, Sabitzer is almost equally adept at the defensive midfield and number 10 roles and will thus add some degree of flexibility and versatility to Dortmund's midfield.

Sabitzer's playstyle is a good fit at Dortmund. His primary strengths are playmaking and ball interception - both key points of emphasis in Dortmund's tactical approach since Edin Terzić began coaching the team on a permanent basis at the beginning of last season. Sabitzer will likely slot in as part of a three-man midfield alongside fellow off-season acquisition Felix Nmecha who was signed from Wolfsburg for €30 million as well as newly-appointed captain Emre Can.

The key question surrounding Sabitzer is if he is able to return to his level of play at RB Leipzig, the club for which he played for six years before signing for Bayern in 2021. Having not been a first-team regular for two years, there will likely be some level of rust during his first few Dortmund matches. The real test will be later in the season, by when it will be evident if he has either dropped off for good or if he had simply never been given ample opportunity during his time in Bavaria.

Of course, no one is expecting Sabitzer to be the difference-maker in Dortmund's attempt to finally prise the Bundesliga title out of Bayern's grip following Bayern's unprecedented 11th consecutive league title last season. That being said, Dortmund's acquisition of Sabitzer sends a clear message to Bayern. In a way, it's a form of validation that Dortmund's post-World Cup surge last season was no fluke, that they are indeed for real, and that they might have a genuine chance to win the Bundesliga for the first time since 2012.

It should also be remembered that Dortmund still have a huge amount of money with which to work following Bellingham's transfer to Real. While Dortmund have never historically been a club which has consistently attracted top-shelf talent, it would not come as a major surprise if they were to open up their now expanded wallet and attempt a move for a big name - especially since Bayern have already signed Kim Min-jae from Napoli for €50 million and are continuing their pursuit of Tottenham striker Harry Kane.

The 2023-24 season is the most highly anticipated at Borussia Dortmund in many years, for it will be the litmus test about whether the club's red-hot finish to last season was a one-off or a sign that they have returned to being one of Europe's elite clubs. The signing of Marcel Sabitzer is a solid first step - but will they go on to build on this? The answer to that question will likely play a big role in determining their fortunes this season.

Sunday, July 23, 2023

The Weekly Take, Issue 267: It Finally Seems to Be Happening

After a six-year stint at Paris Saint-Germain including a transfer saga running for multiple years now, Kylian Mbappé finally looks set to leave the Parc des Princes. It seems almost certain that the club which Mbappé will join will be Real Madrid. The Frenchman has been linked to Los Merengues for several years now; however, according to the latest information, PSG have been in contact with Real regarding Mbappé's proposed arrival in the Spanish capital.

No official transfer bids have yet been made; having said that, Transfermarkt places Mbappé's likely transfer fee at an eye-popping €180 million. Were he to be sold at such a fee, Mbappé's transfer would be the second-most expensive in football history, only trailing that of his would-be ex-teammate Neymar who left Barcelona for PSG after PSG paid the Catalan club €222 million in 2017.

During his six years at his hometown club, Mbappé has progressed from an enticing young prospect to one of the all-time greats. At just 24, Mbappé already has a World Cup title and a Nations League title on the international front. At club level, he has won Ligue 1 five times and the Coupe de France three times with PSG. He is a perennial Ballon d'Or contender and has already scored almost 300 career goals at all levels in all competitions. However, in spite of all this success, the one title he most desperately seeks continues to elude him: the Champions League.

Year after year after year, PSG seem to find new and more spectacular ways to underperform on Europe's biggest stage. Apart from a run to the final in the pandemic-stricken 2019-20 season, Mbappé has experienced failure time and again in the Champions League. At this point, PSG choking in the Champions League is almost an inevitability. This fact only makes Mbappé's impending move to Real even more likely.

After losing in the semifinals of last season's Champions League, Real wasted almost no time in loading up for next season's campaign. Last month, Real signed English midfielder Jude Bellingham for €103 million. Having just had a breakout season at Borussia Dortmund while also playing an excellent World Cup, the 20-year-old Bellingham appears set to be one of the world's best midfielders for at least the next decade if not longer. Bellingham has joined the likes of Federico Valverde, Vinícius Júnior, Rodrygo, Aurélien Tchouaméni, and Eduardo Camavinga to form by far the best young core in world football. The addition of Mbappé would all but guarantee Real at least two Champions League titles over the next five or six seasons. It would almost certainly give birth to a new dynasty at the Santiago Bernabéu.

Real have also just seen club legend Karim Benzema leave for Saudi Pro League side Al-Ittihad, leaving a gaping hole up front. While Mbappé is not primarily a centre-forward, he is more than capable of playing the position. Mbappé would likely take up the role of the "false nine" at Real - a position filled by Neymar and Lionel Messi at various points during Mbappé's time at PSG.

By signing for Real, Mbappé would also likely exponentially increase his chances of winning two major individual honours which he has never claimed - the Ballon d'Or and the European Golden Shoe. Five times over the past six seasons, Mbappé has finished in the top four of the Ballon d'Or rankings with a personal best of fourth in 2018. Mbappé has also been in the top five of the European Golden Shoe leaderboard four times in five seasons including two second-place finishes and one third-place. At Real, he would almost certainly be guaranteed multiple Champions League titles which would exponentially elevate his Ballon d'Or chances. Additionally, playing with a team stacked to ungodly levels like that which Real would have with him on board would lead to a plethora of goalscoring opportunities and thus put him in prime position to chase the European Golden Shoe as well.

From Kylian Mbappé's perspective, joining Real Madrid has absolutely no downsides, especially when considering that PSG have almost certainly hit their ceiling and have no further room for improvement. Mbappé has the opportunity to establish himself as the centrepiece of an iconic, dynastic team - something only very, very few footballers will ever be able to do.

Sunday, July 16, 2023

The Weekly Take, Issue 266: The Camel in the Room

At this point of the current off-season transfer window, I would undoubtedly be remiss not to mention the Saudi Pro League.

The Saudi league first rose to international attention following Al-Nassr's signing Portuguese legend Cristiano Ronaldo in January. At that point, most people (myself included) paid the league no further mind, assuming that Ronaldo just happened to choose Saudi Arabia for one final major payday before the end of his career; although he was the first big name to choose Saudi Arabia, countless other footballers over the years had gone to lesser yet well-paying leagues to finish their respective careers.

However, as has been shown by the ongoing transfer window, the Saudi Pro League has emerged as a genuine force with which to be reckoned. Multiple big-name players have departed Europe to join a Saudi club and claim an enormous pay cheque in the twilight of their careers. One notable exception is Sergej Milinković-Savić; earlier this week, the Serbian midfielder left Lazio for Al Hilal after an eight-year stint at the Roman club despite still being in his prime. Al Hilal paid €42 million to sign Milinković-Savić.

There are several points which I could address with regard to the Saudi Pro League; I will do so accordingly in the following paragraphs.

The first and most obvious point of discussion is the future of the league. Despite the overwhelming amount of money at its disposal, I do not see it ever eclipsing Europe's major football leagues at the top of global club football's hierarchy. More than likely, the vast majority of the players who will leave top European leagues for Saudi Arabia will be similar to Ronaldo, Karim Benzema, and N'Golo Kanté - players close to the end of their careers, though the occasional big name in his prime might be swayed to come due to the outsized salaries awaiting him.

Think back to the days when the Chinese Super League was throwing around major money to lure elite footballers to China. This never materialized; as has so far been the case in Saudi Arabia, the majority of players who made the trip of thousands of kilometres east were either players in their sunset years or those struggling to get regular playing time at their European clubs. Now, I am fairly certain that the Saudi Pro League will have far more staying power than its Chinese counterpart because the Chinese Super League's money-spinning ways were punctured by the Covid-19 pandemic and the ensuing lockdowns in China - the toughest in the world. The Saudi Pro League will not have that additional hurdle to overcome; that being said, this would still not automatically turn it into a genuinely elite football league.

Another key point relates to Newcastle United. The Tyneside club's owners are Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund (PIF) who also own four Saudi Pro League clubs. As a result of this arrangement, it is likely that on several occasions over the coming seasons, the Magpies will receive one or more players from the Saudi league - likely on loan deals. As a club which has leveraged its newfound wealth to become a bona fide contender for Champions League qualification on an annual basis, bringing these players to St. James' Park (even if only on loan) could just be the boost the club needs to get a leg up over direct rivals.

The final point I will address is the most controversial of all: the use of ownership of a sports team as a form of image rehabilitation, more popularly known as "sportswashing". While it is true that in many ways, the Saudi Pro League is indeed an example of sportswashing, the reality is that sportswashing in football has an extensive history. Even before the current Manchester City and Paris Saint-Germain teams, there have been examples like Chelsea under Roman Abramovich, the CCCP-backed Dynamo Kyiv and CSKA Moscow, the Franco-backed Real Madrid, and countless others.

Sportswashing has even happened on a micro level; consider the example of Herbert Diess, the Volkswagen Group CEO who presided over the automotive company's infamous emissions scandal. Diess is a partial owner of Bayern Munich. To sum it up, while I do not condone sportswashing, the fact is that it is and always has been a part of football and will unfortunately continue to be so in the future. The status of the Saudi Pro League does not change that fact one iota.

Sunday, July 9, 2023

The Weekly Take, Issue 265: The Burden of the Mount

Manchester United recently made their first major move of this off-season's transfer window by signing Mason Mount from Chelsea. United landed the English midfielder for a transfer fee of £55 million and is one of a great many Chelsea players to have already left Stamford Bridge over the past few weeks.

From United's perspective, however, this signing can only be described as questionable at best. Neither of Mount's possible positions - central and attacking midfielder - are positions of need for United as they head into the 2023-24 season. Mount is unlikely to supplant either Christian Eriksen or Bruno Fernandes from United's starting 11. Essentially, United have likely just paid a large amount of money for a player likely to spend most weeks on the bench.

Mount's transfer fee would have already been an overpay (albeit a slight one) had he been almost certain to start regularly for the Red Devils, highlighting how unnecessary this signing appears to be. Furthermore, United could have signed players at that same position who not only would have cost much less, but are also younger and have higher ceilings than Mount's. Players like Daniel Ugarte who just left Sporting CP for Paris Saint-Germain, Xavi Simons of PSV Eindhoven, Mohammed Kudus of Ajax, and Khéphren Thuram of OGC Nice would all have been more reasonable pickups.

However, as was earlier mentioned, central and attacking midfield are not major issues for United at the moment. United ought to have been primarily focusing on landing a top-tier centre-forward - something they have not had on their roster since Robin van Persie's first season there a decade ago. It is no coincidence that the season in question, the 2012-13 season, was United's most recent Premier League triumph; with van Persie spearheading the charge up front, no club even came close as United put together a dominant season to win the league by 11 points. More recently, United's tally of 58 league goals last season was only joint-seventh among the 20 Premier League teams and just seven goals more than the tally of the relegated Leicester City. That statistic along should make it clear where United's priorities ought to lie.

As if all of that weren't already enough, United have gone on to bestow the iconic number 7 jersey on Mount. One of the most legendary jersey numbers in the history of world football, there have been many all-time greats who suffocated under the pressure of playing in United's number 7. Not even the likes of Alexis Sánchez and Ángel Di María were able to live with the expectations that came with donning that illustrious number. Given his track record to date, it does not seem even remotely likely that Mount will go on to become United's next great number 7. More than likely, he will end up another name who has fallen by the wayside in that jersey.

This transfer not only makes hardly any sense for United; Mount may have stalled his own career progression by signing for the red half of Manchester. If he does indeed go on to struggle at United, it could very well end up sending his once-promising career into a downward spiral as his stock plummets. Additionally, the European Championships are just a year from now. If Mount does not have a good season at United, his spot in the England squad could be in jeopardy. Phil Foden and Jude Bellingham are almost certainly locks and likely starters for the Three Lions. Mount actually lost his place as an England starter over the course of last year's World Cup. If he cannot demonstrate why United paid so much money to sign him, he might not even be part of the group that goes to Germany next summer.

Of course, there is still every chance that Mason Mount could go on to prove me wrong and silence any doubters regarding his upcoming first season at Manchester United. However, both the club's track record and current situation in relation to Mount's current player profile indicate that this is not likely to be so.

If United go on to miss out on a top-four spot, they might end up ruing this transfer - one which would have sapped them of much-needed money which could have been put to far better use.

Saturday, July 1, 2023

The Weekly Take, Issue 264: End-of-Season Special: Top 10 Moments of the Season

With the story of the 2022-23 European club football season now having been fully told, there's no better time to take a look back and think about how each of the most pivotal moments along the way shaped a season full of major highlights and high drama.

Do note that World Cup moments will not be included as this post only covers European club football.

These are, in my opinion, the 10 standout moments of the 2022-23 season:

Sadio Mané signs for Bayern Munich (June 22, 2022)

Bayern's acquisition of Mané from Liverpool for the shockingly low transfer fee of €32 million sent shockwaves throughout the football universe. After an extremely successful six-year stint in Merseyside, the Senegalese winger was widely tipped to be the signing which would make Bayern clear Champions League favourites and arguably the team to beat during the upcoming season.

However, Mané would somehow go on to fail to live up to even his paltry price tag. Poor play on the field as well as locker-room issues off it derailed his season and likely cost Bayern a Champions League title - and remarkably, almost a Bundesliga title as well.

Erling Haaland signs for Manchester City (July 1, 2022)

City's signing of Haaland ended up being the polar opposite of Bayern's signing of Mané. Haaland was also signed for a far lower transfer fee than was expected - just €60 million. Haaland went on to score goal after goal, breaking multiple records along the way as City ended up claiming a historic Treble.

The Norwegian centre-forward's sheer dominance up front has also positioned him as the front-runner to win this season's Ballon d'Or. The truly frightening part about of all this for City's opponents is the fact that Haaland is still just 22 - there could easily be a decade or more of the same yet to come.

Manchester City 6-3 Manchester United (October 2, 2022)

The first Manchester derby of the season served as a preview of what was about to be unleashed upon the football world. The final scoreline didn't even do City's dominance justice - they were 6-1 ahead before taking their foot off the gas late into the match.

Although nobody was disputing that this was certainly a formidable Manchester City team prior to this match, this match gave many the first inkling that we were witnessing something truly historic brewing.

Juventus incur 15-point penalty in Serie A (January 20, 2023)

Juve's season was derailed after the FIGC struck the Turin club with a 15-point penalty for false accounting. This point penalty all but ensured that they would fail to qualify for next season's Champions League - something which had not happened since finishing seventh in the league in the 2010-11 season.

Three months later, Juve's point penalty would be overturned, giving the Bianconeri a glimmer of hope - at least temporarily. Little did they know what would soon be about to befall them...

Bayern Munich 4-2 Borussia Dortmund (April 2, 2023)

After a turbulent run of matches which saw Bayern's lead atop the Bundesliga dramatically shrink as a rampaging Dortmund cut the gap with seemingly every passing matchday, Bayern replaced head coach Julian Nagelsmann with Thomas Tuchel, who helmed Dortmund from 2015 to 2017.

Der Klassiker was Tuchel's first match in charge at the Bavarian club, and as has been invariably been the case for some years now, Bayern had no trouble dispatching Dortmund, going 4-0 ahead before conceding two late goals. This victory would go on to be pivotal to Bayern's chances of winning a record-extending 11th consecutive league title.

Udinese 1-1 Napoli (May 4, 2023)

Napoli's remarkable Serie A campaign reached its climax when they clinched a first Scudetto since 1990 with a 1-1 draw against Udinese. Victor Osimhen's goal put the seal on what ended up being a season for the ages for the Campanian club.

Napoli's league title victory also provided a sense of closure with Argentina having won the World Cup just a few months prior. The narrative surrounding Argentina's victory was that they did it in honour of the legendary Diego Maradona, who passed away at the age of 60 in November 2020. Understandably, Napoli were said to have done the same.

Juventus incur 10-point penalty in Serie A (May 22, 2023)

Having had their prior 15-point penalty rescinded in April, Juve may have thought that they were in the clear. However, this would not be true at all. Juve were once again punished for false accounting - this time with a 10-point penalty.

This deduction of 10 points once and for all buried Juve's chances of qualifying for next season's Champions League. Juve would go on to finish the season seventh in the league - their worst finish in 12 years. Juve even missed out on Europa League qualification and ended up having to settle for a spot in next season's Europa Conference League.

Köln 1-2 Bayern Munich (May 27, 2023)

Arguably the most pulsating Bundesliga title race of all time could not possibly have had a more dramatic conclusion. Borussia Dortmund's late-season surge coupled with a slump on Bayern's end left Dortmund poised to claim a first Bundesliga title since 2012. Despite only managing a 2-2 draw against Mainz, Dortmund appeared set to win the league as Bayern were drawing 1-1 against Köln with just a few minutes left.

Then, in a stunning turn of events, Jamal Musiala scored Bayern's winning goal in the 89th minute. This last-gasp winner ensured that Bayern would win the league for the 11th season in a row and deny Dortmund the title in what had been Dortmund's best season in more than a decade.

Zlatan Ibrahimović announces retirement (June 4, 2023)

Ibrahimović brought the curtain down on an iconic 24-year career at the age of 41. With 12 league titles and four domestic cups to his name, the Swede retired as among the greatest players to have never won the Champions League - an honour which somehow eluded him for his entire career.

At his peak, there was no centre-forward who could have ever combined power, athleticism, finesse, and technique in the same package as how Ibrahimović could. "Ibra" truly put together an inimitable career in so many ways - on the field as well as off it.

Manchester City 1-0 Inter Milan (June 10, 2023)

Manchester City's 2022-23 team sealed their place among the greatest club teams of all time by beating Inter Milan to claim the Champions League and the Treble with it. City became just the seventh team in the modern era to achieve this feat.

There's a plausible case to be made that we have just witnessed the greatest season of football any club team has ever put together. With this victory, Pep Guardiola now has a strong case as perhaps the greatest coach in the history of football while the likes of Kevin De Bruyne, İlkay Gündoğan, and Erling Haaland further burnished their already-burgeoning legacies.