Thursday, October 27, 2022

The Weekly Take, Issue 234: The End Is Surely Approaching

The standout fixture of the penultimate matchday of this season's Champions League group stage saw Barcelona's tournament fate hang in the balance when they hosted Bayern Munich. Barça were ultimately unable to exact revenge for their 2-0 loss to the Bavarian club on the first matchday; they were defeated by a 3-0 scoreline this time around. Sadio Mané, Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting, and Benjamin Pavard scored the goals which knocked the Catalan side out of the tournament and into the Europa League for the second consecutive season.

For Barça, their failure to qualify for the Champions League's round of 16 once again constitutes a failure of truly gargantuan proportions. This past off-season, the Blaugrana spent an enormous amount of money in their effort to revamp their squad. Players including Raphinha, Franck Kessié, Jules Koundé, and most notably of all, Bayern legend Robert Lewandowski arrived at Camp Nou in hopes that their play would propel Barça towards a sixth Champions League title in the club's storied history.

Instead, the exact opposite outcome took place. With just four points from five matches played, Barça were not even close to Group C runners-up Inter Milan, let alone the imperious juggernaut that is Bayern. Even if Barça were to finish the season with a La Liga and Copa del Rey double, it is more than likely that the club would regard the season as a failure because, like all of the other leading clubs in Europe, it's the Champions League which they desire most of all.

Barça's early Champions League exit will almost certainly lead to a premature end to Xavi's stint as the club's head coach. Following a legendary playing career which saw him spend 17 years at Barça, Xavi took over in the dugout in November 2021, replacing Ronald Koeman. At first, things went well - Xavi steered them to a second-place league finish; they were in ninth place on his first day in the position. However, it must be kept in mind that Barça, as stated in their club slogan, regard themselves as "more than a club". Even such a result would not necessarily been deemed to have been good enough.

Perhaps Xavi was never really ready for such a prestigious coaching job. Prior to his acceptance of the Barça job, Xavi's only prior coaching experience had been a stint of two-and-a-half years at Qatari club Al-Sadd. Obviously, the standard of play to which he would have been exposed was not even close to that which he would go on to face at Barça. Though he did find some degree of success early on, in hindsight the word "success" was relative. Despite registering a memorable 4-0 El Clásico victory over Real Madrid, Xavi's first season in charge did end up without a title. Additionally, they were knocked out of the Europa League in the quarterfinals and the Copa del Rey in the round of 16 - both results well below expectations.

One particularly damning statistic is this: of everyone to have coached Barça since Pep Guardiola's departure in 2012, Xavi has the lowest average points accrued per game with just 1.9. Even Koeman, the man he replaced, sported an average of 1.96 prior to his dismissal. In retrospect, the success of mid-season acquisitions of Ferran Torres and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang last season ended up buying Xavi some additional time which he might not have necessarily earned via his own abilities.

While not every coach finds immediate success, especially at a club as iconic and storied as Barcelona, Xavi has already been granted enough time and chances for a general consensus to have formed around him. Do not be surprised if the man once so beloved by the club's fanbase loses his job within the next week or two.

Many legendary players who have made the transition to coaching have found much difficulty on the other side of the touchlines. Diego Maradona, Andrea Pirlo, Alan Shearer, and Marco van Basten are some of the most well-known examples of this. Unless something changes for the better and soon, it is almost certain that Xavi will end up being the next big name on this list.

They say that "it's never over until it's over", but it probably will be soon.

Sunday, October 23, 2022

The Weekly Take, Issue 233: Neapolitan Dynamite

Napoli solidified their position as the team to beat in this season's Serie A with a 1-0 victory over AS Roma in the latest edition of the Derby del Sole. Victor Osimhen's goal in the 80th minute was enough to lead Gli Azzurri to a seventh consecutive Serie A win. Napoli's victory also saw them re-establish a three-point lead at the top of the league over reigning champions AC Milan.

Very few would have predicted Napoli's ascent this season; they were third in Serie A last season, finishing seven points behind Milan. They were also eliminated in the Europa League's round of 24 against Barcelona. However, at this point of the season, the Campanian club are not only likely to capture a first Scudetto since 1990; they might even be a dark-horse pick to win the Champions League for the first time in the club's history?

When analyzing what has changed so drastically as to make Napoli such a powerhouse this season, the first and most important point to note is their off-season player transactions. Napoli made major changes to their squad from last season; veterans Dries Mertens and Lorenzo Insigne left the club on free transfers to Galatasaray and Toronto FC respectively. Napoli also sold Kalidou Koulibaly to Chelsea for €40 million and Fabián Ruiz to Paris Saint-Germain for €25 million.

With the money obtained from their player sales, Napoli went on to have probably the most productive transfer window of any club in Italy. André-Frank Zambo Anguissa, who had been at the club on loan from Fulham during the previous season, became a full-time player for €15 million. Napoli's signing of Kim Min-jae from Fenerbahçe has also paid dividends, while loan acquisitions Giacomo Raspadori and Tanguy Ndombele have both had significantly positive impacts. And that's before even mentioning their most notable signing who merits a section of his own.

When Napoli signed Khvicha Kvaratshkelia from Dinamo Batumi in July, not many knew just what to expect. After all, Georgia has never been a country regarded as anything even close to a football hotbed. However, "Kvara" is turning out to be the exception that proves the rule. At just 21, the winger has emerged as one of world football's most promising young talents who has not even begun to scratch the surface of his immense potential. Although Kvaratshkelia has not even completed a third of a season at Napoli, he has already drawn the attention of a number of the world's leading clubs such as Real Madrid, PSG, and Manchester City.

Every player of this team fits perfectly - Napoli are truly greater than the sum of their parts. After just 11 league matches, a total of 13 players have already contributed to Napoli's league-leading 26 goals with no player having scored more than five. Additionally, no Napoli players are even close to Serie A's leading players as far as distance covered per match as well as average completed dribbles per match are concerned. Napoli's success appears to be sustainable simply because no single player has to handle too large of a burden, and this team-first roster build and general approach has clearly paid dividends.

This same idea even extends to the bench; Napoli might have the deepest bench of any club in the world right now. When one considers the fact that players on the level of Hirving Lozano, Matteo Politano, and Giovanni Simeone are not even regular starters, the reasons for Napoli's success become even clearer. Despite their relatively modest finances in comparison to the biggest, most glamorous clubs in the world, Napoli have almost as many weapons from which to choose as do those money-laden powerhouses.

Unfortunately for Napoli, the reality is that in modern-day football, success of this sort at such a club usually doesn't last. Several of those major clubs are likely to pursue and, indeed, sign one or more of their key players within the next several years. This is especially true when considering the relative youth of some of the Campanian club's key players - Kvaratshkelia is 21, Kim is 25, and Osimhen is 23. That said, for however long this core group stays together, Napoli will clearly be a team which cannot be overlooked. No one should be surprised if this season, they pair a first league title in more than three decades with the deepest Champions League in the club's history.

Monday, October 17, 2022

The Weekly Take, Issue 232: First Blood in the Mbappé Sweepstakes

Real Madrid opened up a three-point lead at the summit of La Liga with a convincing 3-1 victory over arch-rivals Barcelona. Newly-crowned Ballon d'Or winner Karim Benzema opened the scoring; Federico Valverde and Rodrygo also registered goals for the Champions League holders. Ferran Torres scored Barça's only goal seven minutes from the end of regulation time; however, it proved to be inconsequential. Real's El Clásico win clearly established that in spite of their Catalan rivals' highly productive off-season, Real remain the team to beat in Spain.

Los Merengues' victory comes in the wake of transfer-related news that is likely to alter how teams approach the upcoming mid-season transfer window in January. Paris Saint-Germain superstar Kylian Mbappé supposedly claimed to be interested in leaving the club just months after rebuffing Real to continue his stint at his hometown club. While Mbappé has since denied this, the fact remains that the Pandora's Box has been opened; adding to the intrigue of the situation is that Real have been pursuing his acquisition for several years now.

There is arguably no club in world football right now in which Mbappé would be a better fit than Real. As undoubtedly great as Benzema still is, he will turn 35 in December. His decline will begin sooner or later. At 23, Mbappé could easily take over from his compatriot in the starting line-up once Benzema begins to age out of his peak years, then provide a decade of elite-level production up front - or perhaps even more.

Real could not have provided Mbappé with a better sales pitch. If he indeed decides to leave the Parc des Princes for the Spanish capital and become Benzema's replacement, Real would not only be set up for success in the present, but the future as well. Rodrygo, Valverde, and Vinícius Júnior, like Mbappé, are all in their early 20s. As the would-be "face" of the most successful club in football history, Mbappé would get the media attention and publicity he has always craved. He would be the undisputed leader of Real's attack - the pecking order would be firmly defined. There would not be any potential ego clashes with players like Neymar or Lionel Messi.

Mbappé has openly stated that having already won a World Cup with France, his next major target is the Ballon d'Or. There might be no better avenue for him to do exactly that than by joining Real. If Mbappé were to sign for Real, his arrival would make them the red-hot favourites to win the Champions League. As arguably the best player on the likely victors of Europe's leading club competition, one could scarcely imagine a more favourable scenario for Mbappé to snag football's highest individual honour.

As if all of that weren't enough, Mbappé would be coached by none other than the greatest football coach of all time in Carlo Ancelotti. The upgrade in the dugout that he would experience after leaving Christophe Galtier behind would be monumental. Ancelotti's tactical brilliance and supreme strategic mastery could very well unlock a new level in Mbappé's game - one that sees him truly emerge as one of the greatest strikers of all time.

The match against Barça clearly showed how great Real already are. If what they showed Mbappé were not enough to convince him, one wonders just what would. The only question mark is this: after so many failed attempts to sign him in the past, would this be a case of "once bitten, twice shy"? Though it's difficult to determine if such is so, one would not fault Real for having this line of thinking.

Of course, Real are not the only club in the "Kylian Mbappé Sweepstakes". You could easily argue that he'd be a good fit at teams such as Manchester United and AC Milan as well. However, the combination of team quality, coaching, setup, money, publicity, and title opportunities that is afforded by Real makes them the obvious front-runners to sign Mbappé.

Perhaps Mbappé's recent denial of the transfer rumours around him is genuine - he might not truly want to leave PSG after all. Nevertheless, every major club who can afford his signing is surely on high alert, and especially after this most recent victory, Real Madrid evidently have the inside track once again.

Wednesday, October 5, 2022

The Weekly Take, Issue 231: Not How It Was Supposed to Go

AC Milan entered this season fresh off a first Serie A title since the 2010-11 season. The Rossoneri had also enjoyed a productive off-season transfer window in which their most notable signing was Charles De Ketelaere from Club Brugge for a fee of €32 million. Milan were then drawn into a Champions League group containing Red Bull Salzburg, Chelsea, and Dinamo Zagreb; they were expected to top this group without facing too much difficulty.

This has not been the case at all as was shown in Milan's 3-0 loss against Chelsea in their Champions League match at Stamford Bridge. Milan were completely outplayed by the London club in just about every facet - right from opening kick-off, they never really stood a chance. Wesley Fofana, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, and Reece James put their names on the scoresheet in a match which could easily have seen an even larger margin of victory.

For Milan, an outcome like this was certainly not in the script. This was meant to be the season in which they would establish themselves as a team which would not only contend for a back-to-back league title but also make a deep Champions League run. However, based on what was seen in this performance, the latter might just be out of the question. It was a disjointed, incoherent performance devoid of any substance whatsoever. More importantly, the loss left Milan in a difficult position with regard to qualifying for the round of 16 - something which no one would have seen coming at the beginning of the season.

One flaw which Milan's loss to Chelsea exposed was the team's lack of depth in defense. Starting full-backs Davide Calabria and Theo Hernandez were both absent through injury; thus, their backups Sergiño Dest and Fodé Ballo-Touré entered the starting line-up. Both of them turned in dismal performances well below the expected standard at a club like Milan. Dest has to be singled out for a particularly abject performance. There is a reason why the American was shipped out on loan from Barcelona without a second thought on the Catalan club's part. Again and again, he was torched by Chelsea's attackers and made countless errors. Calabria's return cannot come soon enough for Milan.

Speaking of Barça, the absence a player who left the San Siro for Camp Nou has been keenly felt at Milan. Although Franck Kessié might not have necessarily been Milan's best player, he was arguably their most important before leaving for Barça. A versatile box-to-box midfielder, Kessié was an ideal fit alongside Sandro Tonali. While Ismaël Bennacer, who replaced Kessié in the starting 11, is no slouch himself, his game doesn't pair quite as well with Tonali's, and it clearly showed against Chelsea.

As he has been for much of the season thus far, De Ketelaere was somewhat underwhelming. Upon his arrival at Milan, the Belgian was heralded as one of the league's most promising young talents and seen as a potential difference-maker who could be the key to a successful Scudetto defense. However, thus far he has not been playing up to his transfer fee. While there's still more than enough time for De Ketelaere to adapt to Milan's system and emerge as a key contributor down the final stretch of the season, his "growing pains" are nonetheless evident.

Interestingly, De Ketelaere's slow start to his Milan stint might prove to be a blessing in disguise for Milan later this season. He might end up missing out on a spot in Belgium's World Cup team, which would have the effect of keeping him fresher and more rested for key matches in the coming months.

On the surface, this Milan team appears to be more talented than last year's iteration which ended their 11-year league title drought. It's far too early to write them off - they still stand a good chance of making the Champions League's round of 16 and despite being just fifth in Serie A, lie just three points behind league leaders Napoli. However, it's apparent that this season's Milan team just isn't clicking in quite the same way that last season's did - and that could very well prove to be their undoing domestically as well as in Europe.

Sunday, October 2, 2022

The Weekly Take, Issue 230: There Are Levels to This

Heading into this season, Manchester United had been coming off their most productive off-season in years. Unlike in previous transfer windows, the Glazers openly brandished the big money to bring players to Old Trafford. These weren't no-namers either - Lisandro Martínez, Casemiro, and Antony all arrived at United, making this, at least on paper, one of United's strongest squads in a long time.

After a slow start to their Premier League campaign, United had managed to get back on track in recent weeks with impressive victories over Liverpool and Arsenal as part of a four-match winning streak. However, Erik ten Hag's team were given a stern reality check by cross-town rivals Manchester City. This latest iteration of the Manchester derby saw City claim a 6-3 victory at the Etihad stadium; Phil Foden and Erling Haaland's hat-tricks combined to give City an extremely one-sided win.

In spite of the enormous amount of money that the Red Devils spent in the off-season, their loss in the derby highlighted one key point: it's not going to happen without a megastar who is a legitimate Ballon d'Or candidate. Although Martínez and Casemiro are certainly above-average starters who would merit a place in just about any team's starting 11 while Antony appears to be an intriguing young prospect with a high ceiling, United were taken apart by such a player.

As has invariably been the case throughout this season, Haaland was close to a one-man wrecking crew for the Citizens. In addition to his three goals, Haaland provided the assists for two of Foden's own trio. The Norwegian is one of two City players who occupies that highest and rarest echelon; Kevin De Bruyne is the other. The effects of having two such players have been evident since the season began. While City currently lie second in the Premier League behind Arsenal, they will almost certainly overtake the Gunners at some point before opening up an enormous lead as they roll to yet another Premier League title by a huge margin. City are also the only English club who have a realistic chance of winning the Champions League.

This brings me back to United. Somehow, despite spending an eye-popping €240 million in the recent transfer window, it can absolutely be said that United "played it safe". This is especially true when considering the calibre of players who were up for grabs. Now, it's true that Haaland would never have signed for United owing to the history between the club and his father who was dealt a career-ending injury by a cheap shot from former United captain Roy Keane. Sadio Mané, who left Liverpool for Bayern Munich, was also off the table due to the rivalry between Liverpool and United. However, United did have many other opportunities to "swing for the fences" but passed on all of them.

This past off-season, Robert Lewandowski left Bayern for Barcelona. In-house friction between Neymar and Kylian Mbappé at Paris Saint-Germain almost led to Mbappé's departure from PSG. Speculation around Harry Kane's future at Tottenham Hotspur continues to circulate. And, if United had happened to have an unusually large appetite for risk, they might even have considered bringing Romelu Lukaku back to Old Trafford in hopes that he might recapture the form that saw him dominate during his first stint at Inter Milan. A large portion of the money United spent could easily have been used to finance the signing of one of these players.

None of this is a knock on any of United's key acquisitions. With their help as well as ten Hag's adept tactical mind, United will probably finish second or third in the league and either win the Europa League or make a deep run in it. However, this is Manchester United we're talking about - the world's most high-profile club with a level of glamour arguably only matched by Real Madrid and Barça. The prospect of being the face of United is something which the club should have leveraged to bring in that all-timer at the peak of his powers. United are thus likely to rue not doing so.

This season's United team do present a formidable challenge for opponents both domestically and abroad. However, in the words of Meek Mill, "there (are) levels to this"; United's timidity in the transfer window (masked by their extravagant financial outlay) has kept them from the topmost level.