Monday, September 19, 2022

The Weekly Take, Issue 228: Stumbling Out of the Gates

The first Madrid derby of the 2022-23 La Liga saw Atlético Madrid host Real Madrid. Having entered the match in shaky form, Atlético's slow start to the season continued with a 2-1 loss to their cross-town rivals. First-half goals scored by Rodrygo and Federico Valverde saw Real take a 2-0 lead into the halftime break. Seven minutes from the end of regulation time, Atlético centre-back Mario Hermoso came off the bench to reduce the deficit, but that would be as close as Atlético would come. To cap off the loss, Hermoso was sent off after picking up a second yellow card in stoppage time.

The pre-match buildup was overshadowed by racist remarks targeted at Real striker Vinícius Júnior and his usual goal celebration. While these events seemed to galvanize Real and give them a cause around which they could rally, they appeared to have the exact opposite effect on Atlético. For almost the entire match, Atlético were thoroughly outplayed by their arch-rivals. Frankly, Atlético were rather fortunate to lose by just one goal.

After six La Liga matchdays, Atlético are in sixth place, eight points behind leaders Real. This is somewhat new territory for Atlético as they have finished in La Liga's top three in each of the last 10 seasons, picking up two league titles along the way. Thus, the question must be asked: what exactly is going wrong at the Wanda Metropolitano?

For one thing, Atlético's new off-season signings as well as their loan returnees have not gelled with the players already at the club in the way they had been expected to. Axel Witsel, Saúl Ñíguez, Antoine Griezmann, and Nahuel Molina have all been thoroughly disappointing thus far. Although Álvaro Morata appears to have hit the ground running follow a return from a loan stint at Juventus, his track records suggests that he is likely to regress to the mean before long.

Additionally, the drama surrounding the loan signing of Griezmann from Barcelona does not help matters at all. The French forward is now in the second season of a loan stint from the Catalan club. The terms of Griezmann's loan to Atlético reportedly state that Atlético have an obligation to sign him for €40 million if he were to play 45 minutes or more of at least 14 Atlético matches this season. As a result, Atlético head coach Diego Simeone has been reluctant to start Griezmann; the Madrid derby was Griezmann's first league start of the season. Barça, who believe that Atlético are currently obliged to sign Griezmann as a result of the matches in which he featured last season, intend to sue Atlético regarding this matter. This is undoubtedly an enormous distraction - one which could derail Atlético's season before it even gets off the ground.

Another factor that has caused Atlético to struggle is the alarming decline in form of goalkeeper Jan Oblak. Just four years ago, the Slovenian was the consensus pick as "the best goalkeeper in the world" - and it wasn't even close. Even a year and a half ago, Oblak was in most people's top five goalkeepers worldwide. However, thus far this season, he is almost unrecognizable when compared to the commanding presence who so deftly and ably patrolled the Atlético goalposts. To make matters even more alarming, Oblak is 29 years old - relatively young for a goalkeeper. If he is indeed past his best, Oblak's career arc will have included a remarkably early peak before declining. Considering the fact that goalkeeper is typically the position with the greatest longevity, it's possible that Atlético might have to think twice about retaining Oblak as the starting goalkeeper beyond this season.

Atlético are no strangers to adversity; indeed, in the first few years after gatecrashing Spain's former top table of two, they fought tooth and nail to hang on to that spot and ultimately consolidate it. Now, Atlético might just be facing their toughest challenge since their "arrival" about a decade ago.

Of course, if they are serious about clawing back the deficit to the top three, it's likely that a major shake-up will come in the January transfer window. Changes to Atlético's regular starting line-up may also be necessary. Arguably most importantly of all, any form of clarity on the Griezmann situation will be greatly welcomed.

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