Sunday, September 25, 2022

The Weekly Take, Issue 229: Another Opportunity Squandered

The most recent Nations League matchday saw Low Countries rivals Belgium and the Netherlands square off in a derby match to decide which team would qualify for the Nations League Finals to be held in June. The Netherlands emerged with a 1-0 victory. Virgil van Dijk scored the only goal of the match.

For Belgium, this was the latest in a series of false dawns dating back to their arrival as a bona fide international football powerhouse in the early 2010s. In Belgium's last four major tournaments, they have been knocked out in the quarterfinals thrice and the semifinals once. To make matters worse, Belgium's quarterfinal exits in the 2014 World Cup as well as the 2016 and 2020 European Championship were ostensibly very winnable matches; indeed, one could make the case that Belgium entered all three of those matches as favourites.

The final remnants of the team which burst onto the scene with such hype almost a decade ago are now gearing up for what will almost certainly be their last World Cup - and perhaps the last in which Belgium are a genuine title threat for quite some time. Six of Belgium's starting 11 against the Netherlands featured in the 2014 World Cup in which they were once predicted to make such a splash. Eight years on, it's beginning to seem as though Belgium might never live up to all the buzz that once surrounded them.

On paper, this is a Belgium squad with the ability to go toe-to-toe with just about any of the world's elite teams. In Eden Hazard, Kevin De Bruyne, Thibaut Courtois, and Romelu Lukaku, Belgium have four players who have established their places among the all-time greats. On top of that, they also have intriguing blend of veterans and younger players that features the likes of Yannick Carrasco, Youri Tielemans, Axel Witsel, Thomas Meunier, Toby Alderweireld, Alexis Saelemakers, and Charles De Ketelaere. Yet, in spite of this impressive squad depth and abundance of talent, Belgium's loss against the Netherlands highlighted several key flaws.

From a tactical perspective, Belgium were thoroughly overmatched. While this was understandable to an extent given the fact that head coach Roberto Martínez was serving a touchline ban, it is not particularly likely that the Spaniard's presence in the dugout would have led to a better outcome; after all, it was almost certainly his tactics which were incorporated. In multiple key matches, most notably in Belgium's Euro 2020 quarterfinal loss against Italy, Martínez has been found lacking in the strategic department. It would not be surprising if Martínez were to be fired should Belgium once again underwhelm at the coming World Cup.

There also seems to be somewhat of a disconnect between the veterans from the original "golden generation" and the younger players. Once again, it isn't difficult to see why this is the case. The older cadre made Belgium relevant at the highest level of international football for the very first time, while the younger group entered the international game at a time when Belgium had already established itself as a force. While this might not necessarily seem to be a major issue on the surface, it has arguably manifested itself in the form of somewhat disjointed, disorganized play.

Additionally, despite having found the net in 49 consecutive matches prior to this match, Belgium were clearly in serious need of firepower up front. Despite their overall depth, they do not have a truly top-tier goalscorer outside of Lukaku, who was absent through injury. This lack of positional balance might ultimately prove to be Belgium's undoing at the World Cup, especially when facing elite defenses. There's not much good in going 18 or 19 deep if the squad has just one legitimate goal threat.

It has been an incredible decade for Belgian football - by far the finest in the history of a country which before it had seen precious little footballing success. This Belgium team should once again make a deep run at the World Cup. Qualification from the group stage is the bare minimum; a quarterfinal spot is expected. But to go all the way and bring home the World Cup for the very first time? The odds of that are, unfortunately, appearing increasingly slim.

The "golden generation" may just be fading to copper.

Monday, September 19, 2022

The Weekly Take, Issue 228: Stumbling Out of the Gates

The first Madrid derby of the 2022-23 La Liga saw Atlético Madrid host Real Madrid. Having entered the match in shaky form, Atlético's slow start to the season continued with a 2-1 loss to their cross-town rivals. First-half goals scored by Rodrygo and Federico Valverde saw Real take a 2-0 lead into the halftime break. Seven minutes from the end of regulation time, Atlético centre-back Mario Hermoso came off the bench to reduce the deficit, but that would be as close as Atlético would come. To cap off the loss, Hermoso was sent off after picking up a second yellow card in stoppage time.

The pre-match buildup was overshadowed by racist remarks targeted at Real striker Vinícius Júnior and his usual goal celebration. While these events seemed to galvanize Real and give them a cause around which they could rally, they appeared to have the exact opposite effect on Atlético. For almost the entire match, Atlético were thoroughly outplayed by their arch-rivals. Frankly, Atlético were rather fortunate to lose by just one goal.

After six La Liga matchdays, Atlético are in sixth place, eight points behind leaders Real. This is somewhat new territory for Atlético as they have finished in La Liga's top three in each of the last 10 seasons, picking up two league titles along the way. Thus, the question must be asked: what exactly is going wrong at the Wanda Metropolitano?

For one thing, Atlético's new off-season signings as well as their loan returnees have not gelled with the players already at the club in the way they had been expected to. Axel Witsel, Saúl Ñíguez, Antoine Griezmann, and Nahuel Molina have all been thoroughly disappointing thus far. Although Álvaro Morata appears to have hit the ground running follow a return from a loan stint at Juventus, his track records suggests that he is likely to regress to the mean before long.

Additionally, the drama surrounding the loan signing of Griezmann from Barcelona does not help matters at all. The French forward is now in the second season of a loan stint from the Catalan club. The terms of Griezmann's loan to Atlético reportedly state that Atlético have an obligation to sign him for €40 million if he were to play 45 minutes or more of at least 14 Atlético matches this season. As a result, Atlético head coach Diego Simeone has been reluctant to start Griezmann; the Madrid derby was Griezmann's first league start of the season. Barça, who believe that Atlético are currently obliged to sign Griezmann as a result of the matches in which he featured last season, intend to sue Atlético regarding this matter. This is undoubtedly an enormous distraction - one which could derail Atlético's season before it even gets off the ground.

Another factor that has caused Atlético to struggle is the alarming decline in form of goalkeeper Jan Oblak. Just four years ago, the Slovenian was the consensus pick as "the best goalkeeper in the world" - and it wasn't even close. Even a year and a half ago, Oblak was in most people's top five goalkeepers worldwide. However, thus far this season, he is almost unrecognizable when compared to the commanding presence who so deftly and ably patrolled the Atlético goalposts. To make matters even more alarming, Oblak is 29 years old - relatively young for a goalkeeper. If he is indeed past his best, Oblak's career arc will have included a remarkably early peak before declining. Considering the fact that goalkeeper is typically the position with the greatest longevity, it's possible that Atlético might have to think twice about retaining Oblak as the starting goalkeeper beyond this season.

Atlético are no strangers to adversity; indeed, in the first few years after gatecrashing Spain's former top table of two, they fought tooth and nail to hang on to that spot and ultimately consolidate it. Now, Atlético might just be facing their toughest challenge since their "arrival" about a decade ago.

Of course, if they are serious about clawing back the deficit to the top three, it's likely that a major shake-up will come in the January transfer window. Changes to Atlético's regular starting line-up may also be necessary. Arguably most importantly of all, any form of clarity on the Griezmann situation will be greatly welcomed.

Thursday, September 8, 2022

The Weekly Take, Issue 227: Picked the Wrong Year to Peak

When the draw for this season's Champions League was revealed, one group stood out far above the rest: Group C. Featuring arguably the two best teams as well as three of the five best in European club football right now - Bayern Munich, Barcelona, and Inter Milan - this group was primed to be a bloodbath right from the first matchday.

However, if the match between Inter and Bayern during the opening matchday was anything to go by, that bloodbath will never materialize. Bayern were untroubled right from kick-off; they registered a 2-0 victory while not even playing anywhere close to their maximum level. Leroy Sané opened the scoring for Bayern in the first half before a Danilo D'Ambrosio own goal after the interval sealed the victory.

The result was never in doubt - indeed, even before the match even began, Inter were thoroughly overmatched in every conceivable area. In fact, Inter can count themselves somewhat fortunate to have lost by just two goals in light of Bayern's almost total superiority. Bayern and Barça are the two best club teams on the planet by an enormous margin; it's not even close.

What makes this especially galling is that this is quite possibly Inter's strongest team since their treble-winning team of 2010. This is an extremely well-rounded squad with quality at every position; Inter even made several important acquisitions during the off-season to further strengthen the squad. The arrivals of Robin Gosens, Joaquín Correa, Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Francesco Acerbi, and most notably of all, the returning Romelu Lukaku all appeared to make Inter not only the favourites to win Serie A, but also possible Champions League title contenders.

However, as things turned out, a season which began with so much promise for Inter might very well end up with no major titles at all. Domestically, the Serie A title race could very well be the most competitive title race ever. It figures to be a five-cornered fight with Juventus, Napoli, AS Roma, and reigning champions AC Milan all firmly in the mix. Juve's signings of Adrien Rabiot and Bremer have already made significant impacts. Though neither Roma nor Napoli made any major signings, both have significantly improved from last season. Despite losing Franck Kessié to Barça by way of a free transfer, Milan retained the majority of the core which landed them a first Scudetto in a decade.

As far as the Champions League is concerned, Inter were unfortunately drawn into by far the most difficult group this season - and arguably in the history of the Champions League. The sheer skill gap that separates Bayern and Barça from the rest of the pack cannot be understated. Barring knockout-round draw shenanigans, a Bayern-Barça final is by far the most likely outcome. Somehow, Inter had the misfortune to be placed in a group with not one, but both. Though Inter will almost certainly slip into the Europa League by finishing third in the group and subsequently be the overwhelming favourites to win that, the secondary continental tournament is surely not what the Nerazzurri had in mind when this season began. That said, should they end up there, only a tournament victory would be considered a success.

In just about any other year, this Inter team would have been receiving far more hype than it actually is. Spearheaded by the underrated Lautaro Martínez and featuring the likes of Denzel Dumfries, Nicolò Barella, Lukaku, and Federico Dimarco, Inter have the personnel and the strategic approach to take down almost anyone on their day. However, the key word is "almost" - though Inter are certainly one of the top 10 and arguably even top five teams in the world right now, the gap between them and the top three (Manchester City being the third) is simply too large to overcome. Additionally, though they may be favourites to reclaim the Scudetto they lost last season, the sheer number of contenders presents more opportunities for dropped points. It's not a lock by any means.

Of course, the possibility that Inter will have a highly successful mid-season transfer window and use it to pull away from the pack domestically still exists. However, either way, this season is shaping up to prove to be more difficult than what most Inter fans would have envisioned.

Sunday, September 4, 2022

The Weekly Take, Issue 226: Here Comes a New Challenger

Last season, Union Berlin completed the best season in the club's history by finishing fifth in the Bundesliga and qualifying for this season's Europa League by doing so. This was a notable achievement given the fact that Union had been promoted to the Bundesliga for the first time in the club's history just two years prior. The last time that Union had been a top-flight club was in the 1987-88 season when they were relegated from the former East Germany's Oberliga.

During the most recent Bundesliga matchday, Union displayed their credentials as a bona fide contender for a Champions League berth next season by impressively holding Bayern Munich to a 1-1 draw. Sheraldo Becker opened the scoring for Union in the 12th minute before Joshua Kimmich equalized for Bayern three minutes later.

Despite only having 25% of the possession and seldom being in control of the match's tempo, the club from the German capital kept Bayern frustrated and shackled with a resolute, gritty showing. They displayed the same mentality that served them so well throughout last season, showing absolutely no trepidation in the face of the onslaught served by their Bavarian opponents.

When this season began, there were genuine questions about whether Die Eisernen could match their performance from last season after having lost leading goalscorer Taiwo Awoniyi to Nottingham Forest. The Premier League club signed the Nigerian for a fee of €20.5 million, making him the most expensive signing in the club's history. However, ever since Awoniyi's departure, he and Union could not have experienced more disparate fortunes. At Forest, Awoniyi is locked in a battle to avoid relegation to the Championship. On the other hand, Union have taken it up a notch and could even qualify for the Champions League for the first time in the club's history.

Union's strong start to the season has in no small part been driven by Becker's sudden rise. The Surinamese striker has already exceeded his total of four goals from last season. With five in his first five matches, Becker is set to obliterate his career-best of seven; even that figure was accomplished in the far less competitive Eredivisie with ADO Den Haag. Compared to last season, he has spent more time playing centrally as opposed to coming in from out wide - a move that has clearly paid dividends. Becker has also shown good chemistry with strike partner and new signing Jordan Pefok; the pair clicked almost right from the beginning.

From a tactical standpoint, Union's 3-5-2 formation is somewhat unconventional according to the current "meta"; however, it clearly seems to work. Their setup has allowed them to be particularly effective on the counter-attack; thus, while Union tend to concede a great deal of possession to their opponents, this often has little impact on the flow of play. This tactical approach has not only brought Union much success; it has also made Urs Fischer one of the most underrated coaches in European football today.

Like many Bundesliga clubs operating on a rather limited budget, Union have had to work the transfer window for all it's worth - and they have done just that. Pefok, Morten Thorsby, and Janik Haberer were signed for a total cost of €9 million - well below their expected market value. When coupled the influx of revenue the club received from Awoniyi's departure, they could be primed to make a key signing during the upcoming mid-season transfer window.

Union's ascension since their promotion to the Bundesliga in 2019 is somewhat reminiscent of Atlético Madrid's rise in the late 2000s and early 2010s. Like Union, Atlético were a big-city club mired in the doldrums; elite status seemed worlds away. However, through a combination of shrewd signings, tactical brilliance from head coach Diego Simeone, first-class scouting, and ownership willing to do whatever was necessary to deliver success to the club, Atlético went from strength to strength and are today a Champions League mainstay as well as a frequent title contender in La Liga.

It is, of course, far too early to tell if Union will follow in Atlético footsteps. That said, a decade from now, they too could be making deep Champions League runs every year if they make the right moves. They're obviously on the right track - but will they keep it going?