Wednesday, June 8, 2022

The Weekly Take, Issue 214: A Rebuild Coming to Its End?

The latest chapter of one of international football's most enduring, iconic rivalries ended in a stalemate.

During the second matchday of the 2022-23 UEFA Nations League, Germany and England played to a 1-1 draw at the Allianz Arena. Jonas Hofmann opened the scoring in the 50th minute to put Germany 1-0 ahead after previously having had a goal waived off for offside. Two minutes before the end of regulation time, Harry Kane would score the Three Lions' equalizer from the penalty spot shortly after having earned that same penalty when he was fouled by Nico Schlotterbeck. It was the England captain's 50th goal for his country.

Despite surrendering the victory in the closing stages, Die Mannschaft put together a solid overall performance. Germany controlled the tempo for the majority of the match through their large possession advantage. Their passing was on point throughout and they had more clear-cut goalscoring opportunities than did England. If their play against one of the favourites to win the World Cup later this year is anything to go by, Germany's rebuild after a difficult past few years might be ending soon as they return to their position at international football's top table.

A cursory look at the current German team shows that their greatest strength lies in their midfield. Joshua Kimmich, Jamal Musiala, and İlkay Gündoğan were among Germany's standout performers against England. Add in the likes of Leon Goretzka, and Julian Brandt and it becomes obvious that Germany's midfield will be one of the most formidable to take to the field in Qatar when November and December roll around.

Since replacing Joachim Löw as head coach in August last year after the underwhelming performances of his predecessor's team in the 2018 World Cup and 2020 European Championships, Hansi Flick has revitalized Germany in many ways. Just as he did during his tenure at Bayern Munich, Flick has placed a great deal of focus on high pressing. Flick's version of "Gegenpressing" also has both wing-backs (Germany typically use a 3-4-2-1 formation, hence the lack of traditional full-backs) often going forward in order to ease the burden on the attacking trio. Hofmann's goal against England as well as the build-up to it were evidence of these tactics in full flight.

That being said, if there are any question marks still remaining as they pertain to Germany, the attention must certainly be turned towards their strikers. Although Timo Werner, Kai Havertz, Serge Gnabry, and Leroy Sané are not scrubs by any means, none are truly elite. This could turn out to be an issue when facing some of the world's best defenses at the World Cup.

Germany's lack of a goalscorer of such a calibre was clearly shown in the qualifiers for the World Cup; despite scoring a whopping 36 goals over their 10 matches, no individual player scored more than five. This statistic is a double edged sword; while it speaks well of Germany's depth and strength in numbers, it also shows that they do not have a player who can truly say "give me the ball and get out of my way" when the stakes are at their highest.

With the World Cup approaching, Germany find themselves in a vastly different position than that of 2018. Burdened by the pressure of being reigning champions, Germany stunningly wilted under the expectations with losses to Mexico and South Korea and were knocked out in the first round for the first time since 1938. This time around, however, Germany are viewed as a team in transition and one who will be a tough out but not a true contender. That may actually end up working in their favour due to the relative lack of pressure on the team.

It may be true that Germany have not been handed the most favourable draw at the next World Cup. Spain, Japan, and (most likely) Costa Rica make for one of the more difficult of the eight groups. If Germany are to make a serious push for a record-equalling fifth World Cup title, the key fixture will be their match against Spain which could determine whether they finish first or second in the group. Finish second and they will likely play Belgium in the round of 16, which may result in another early exit. With a first-place finish, however, they do have a clear path to the semifinals; at that point, anything could happen.

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