Sunday, May 30, 2021

The Weekly Take, Issue 160: Everything But the Mentality

The 2020-21 European club football season came to its conclusion on Saturday with the Champions League final at Porto's Estádio do Dragão. Chelsea claimed the second Champions League title in club history by beating the favoured Manchester City 1-0. Kai Havertz scored the goal which will forever write his name into the Stamford Bridge history books.

Though some might already have forgotten, the seeds of Chelsea's victory were planted in their league match against City on May 8. In that match, Chelsea emerged victorious by a scoreline of 2-1. However, a key incident in that encounter occurred when Sergio Agüero stepped forward to take a penalty after Billy Gilmour fouled Gabriel Jesus in the penalty area.

Agüero attempted a Panenka penalty which was easily saved by Chelsea goalkeeper Édouard Mendy. Although the Argentine missed his penalty, he sent a loud and clear message to Chelsea: City did not consider the Blues worthy of their respect.

The Panenka, regardless of its outcome, is one of the most obvious methods by which a player or team can taunt an opponent. The message it sends is clear: "we do not take you seriously". Unfortunately for Agüero and City, Chelsea were not about to roll over and accept this insult.

Anyone who watched the Champions League final could tell that Chelsea simply "wanted it more" than City did. The London club's grit, determination, and desire for victory stood in clear contrast to the Citizens' somewhat lackadaisical, entitled attitude. It felt as though City just assumed that they could just show up and leave with the victory.

Had Agüero never attempted the Panenka in the first place, Chelsea might not have been quite as motivated to win as they were. As it turned out, that incident was exactly the push that Chelsea needed to raise their game when the stakes were at their highest.

City's general level of play in the highest-pressure matches must also surely be called into question. This is a team which has clearly revealed itself to be nothing more than a front-runner of the highest order, especially in the Champions League. Over the past six seasons, City have lost in the quarterfinals three times, in the semifinals once, and now, in the final once.

It only gets worse when one considers the fact that for five seasons in a row, City have been eliminated at the hands of a team against which they had been favoured. Considering the enormous amount of money which City have spent over this period, this is an extremely bad look for them.

At this point, the question has to be asked: where do City go from here? It is looking increasingly as though they have reached their peak. On paper, this City team seems to have all the elements for success in place. In Kevin De Bruyne, they have a perennial Ballon d'Or contender who can be the foundational piece of a team that could win multiple Champions Leagues. The Belgian is a passer and playmaker of a calibre that fewer than 10 - and arguably five - players have ever been.

City have the supporting cast as well. Bernardo Silva, Riyad Mahrez, Ederson, İlkay Gündoğan, Rúben Dias, Rodri, Raheem Sterling - this is a team loaded to the brim with talent. They are even coached by Pep Guardiola who is unquestionably a top-10 coach of all time. However, their failures when the lights have been brightest and the pressure at its highest speak for themselves. Agüero's Panenka incident was just the latest manifestation of City's shortcomings as far as mentality is concerned.

City have the talent, the strategy, and of course, the money. To their credit, they have obtained the desired results domestically: three Premier League titles and an FA Cup over the past four seasons speak for themselves.

However, as far as the biggest prize in European club football is concerned, City might just have blown their biggest chance for many years to come.

There are some things which money cannot buy. These are what are sometimes referred to as "the intangibles". It is these intangibles which turn talent into results. For all of Manchester City's wealth, they are genuinely lacking in this most critical of areas - a fact which was shown to the world on the biggest stage of all.

Saturday, May 22, 2021

The Weekly Take, Issue 159: The Greatest Trophyless Run Ever Ends

This matchday saw all four major European domestic leagues wrap up. Atlético Madrid beat Valladolid to clinch their first La Liga title since 2014, while Inter Milan, Manchester City, and Bayern Munich all concluded victorious league campaigns of their own.

Amidst the final-day action, one match which was overlooked by many signalled the end of an era in two ways. RB Leipzig succumbed to a 2-1 loss to Union Berlin. Justin Kluivert's opener for Leipzig was cancelled out by a Marvin Friedrich goal. Max Kruse would later score Union's winning goal in stoppage time.

The match was Leipzig head coach Julian Nagelsmann's last in charge of the Saxony club. One of the most accomplished young coaches in world football at just 33, Nagelsmann will leave Die Bullen and take over at Bayern on July 1.

Nagelsmann's departure from Leipzig also almost certainly put an end to what must be the greatest multi-year stretch without any silverware that there has ever been.

Since earning promotion to the Bundesliga in 2016, Leipzig have finished second and third in the league twice each. On two occasions, they lost in the final of the DFB-Pokal. Last season, they reached the Champions League semifinals before losing to Paris Saint-Germain.

Every other team to have put together a stretch at such a level won at least one trophy during it - except Leipzig. You could conceivably make a case for Tottenham 2014-19 or Napoli 2015-19, but for me, Leipzig takes the somewhat back-handed honour over both.

Leipzig's primary case over Tottenham lies in the fact that their league campaigns were dramatically more difficult. Bayern's complete domination of the Bundesliga has rendered almost every league season a race for second place. Tottenham, on the other hand, have not had to deal with such an adversary in the Premier League. Even more damningly, they only managed to finish third in the 2015-16 Premier League season - a title which they could easily have won if they hadn't lived up to the Tottenham stereotype and faltered down the stretch.

Like Leipzig, Napoli also had to deal with a domestic powerhouse; Juventus won the Serie A title in all four seasons of their trophyless run. They even came close to breaking Juve's Scudetto streak in both the 2017-18 and 2018-19 seasons. However, their cup record fell well short of Leipzig's. During this run, Napoli neither advanced beyond the quarterfinals of the Coppa Italia or the Champions League's round of 16 even once.

With Nagelsmann's departure, it would not be surprising to see Leipzig decline dramatically next season - they might even struggle to land a spot in European competition the season after. Nagelsmann is already regarded as the best coach in the Bundesliga and arguably among the top 10 in the world. If, as expected, he begins to rack up titles at Bayern, it won't be long before he will be regarded as one of the greatest coaches ever, especially if he brings another Champions League title to the Allianz Arena.

The question then becomes: what's next for Leipzig? Having already lost Timo Werner, the greatest player in the club's history, to Chelsea, Leipzig certainly find themselves in quite a bind heading into the coming off-season. Star power will be hard to come by - the city of Leipzig is not a glamorous, big-ticket destination. On top of that, Leipzig don't have any historical clout. Although they are owned by Red Bull, Leipzig's ability to spend money of players is still dwarfed by those of so many others.

The fact that centre-back Dayot Upamecano will leave for Bayern in July doesn't help matters at all. At just 22, Upamecano had perhaps the highest ceiling of all of Leipzig's young players. His departure for the club's biggest obstacle is a massive blow. A core of Angeliño, Marcel Sabitzer, Willi Orbán, Dani Olmo, and Emil Forsberg is simply not good enough to get it done.

There's no denying that for the past five years, Leipzig have clearly been punching above their weight. Unfortunately, it appears that the bubble has finally burst. After falling just short again and again, Leipzig's quest for a first piece of silverware in the club's history will likely continue for quite some time.

Sunday, May 16, 2021

The Weekly Take, Issue 158: Short-Term Failure for Long-Term Success?

Although it may initially seem paradoxical, the winners of the latest iteration of the Derby d'Italia may, in the long run, wish they had lost instead.

In a chippy encounter on Serie A's penultimate matchday which saw both teams reduced to 10 men, Juventus beat newly-crowned league champions Inter Milan 3-2. Juan Cuadrado's two goals proved to be the difference between the two teams; the Colombian winger scored the Bianconeri's winning goal from the penalty spot in the 88th minute after he had been fouled by Ivan Perišić in the penalty area.

The victory kept Juve in contention for one of the four Champions League spots. It is for precisely that reason why I believe a Juve loss would have served them better over time.

If Juve leapfrog AC Milan or Napoli during the final matchday and qualify for next season's Champions League, the chances of head coach Andrea Pirlo remaining in the position next season exponentially increase. Such a scenario would be the exact opposite of what would be best for Juve due to the abject incompetence that Pirlo has shown to date.

At the end of last season, Juve fired Maurizio Sarri after a Champions League quarterfinal loss against Lyon. The selection of Pirlo as Sarri's replacement surprised many because of Pirlo's lack of coaching experience. Pirlo had been appointed as coach of Juve's reserve team just nine days prior. Results since then have confirmed the skeptics' concerns.

With Pirlo in the dugout, Juve have failed to win Serie A for the first time since the 2010-11 season. That season, Juve had a historically dismal campaign - their worst since either 1962 when they were 13th in the league but made the European Cup quarterfinals or 1957 when they only managed to finish ninth in the league. Not surprisingly, Luigi Delneri was fired as Juve head coach at the end of the season and replaced with Antonio Conte. Conte's arrival in Turin would go on to usher in the beginning of a remarkable run of nine consecutive league titles.

During this nine-year stretch featuring Conte, Massimiliano Allegri, and Sarri in the dugout, Juve not only won the league every year; they averaged a remarkable 90 points per season while doing so. They also won four Coppa Italia titles and reached the Champions League final in 2015 and 2017. This recent record has only served to highlight just how inept Pirlo has been thus far.

Pirlo has utterly failed to adapt his tactics to suit Juve's players. This can clearly be seen in their lack of invention and creativity in the final third of the pitch; a somewhat ironic fact given that as a player, Pirlo was one of the greatest playmakers of all time. Much of Juve's play in the sharp end of the field this season can be boiled down to "give Cristiano Ronaldo the ball and hope things work". As great as Ronaldo still is even at the age of 36, there's still only so much one player can do.

Pirlo has also shown that he is a coach stuck in the past; this is shown by his selection of the 4-4-2 formation. This is a formation which has seen the game pass it by; while teams of the past have seen success with it, we now know that the 4-4-2 formation is rigid, inflexible, and often not conducive to the creation of viable goalscoring opportunities. Pirlo's insistence on this formation is also further evidence of his failure to adapt to Juve's squad; players such as Adrien Rabiot and Rodrigo Bentancur should be deployed behind the opposition midfield as part of a 4-3-3 or 3-5-2 formation. This setup would not only help Juve create more chances; it would also help them gain a larger share of possession and dictate the flow of the match.

When Juve played against Napoli last month, the consensus heading into the match was that Pirlo's job was on the line. He managed to spare himself from the axe as he led Juve to a 2-1 victory over their opponents from the south. However, as may have been the case with the Inter match, it may have been better for Juve to have lost in order to trigger the firing of Pirlo.

Regardless of Juve's final league position this season or their spot or lack thereof in next season's Champions League, Pirlo has to go as soon as this season ends. It is beyond obvious that he is completely out of his depth.

Sunday, May 9, 2021

The Weekly Take, Issue 157: Still Up for Grabs

The most highly-anticipated matchday of the La Liga season ended up being rather anti-climactic.

This was the matchday during which each of the four contenders would face off against a rival for the league title. Barcelona hosted Atlético Madrid while Real Madrid had a home match against Sevilla.

Barça and Atlético played first. Their match ended in a 0-0 draw, meaning that Atlético remained top of the league by two points heading into Real and Sevilla's match the next day. The result was a major missed opportunity for Barça, who had the chance to take the lead by winning.

The next day, Real took on Sevilla. Sevilla had to win to stay in contention for the title. They could not; Eden Hazard's stoppage-time equalizer ensured that it finished at 2-2. The result narrowed the league title contenders to just three after 35 of the 38 matchdays. Like Barça, Real trail Atlético by two points; however, Real are ahead of Barça due to a better head-to-head record.

As the current league leaders and with no remaining fixtures against fellow title contenders, some might assume that Atlético have the title all but sealed. However, this is far from the case. Over the past several months, Atlético's form has declined dramatically. Their once massive league lead has dwindled to just two. They were also comprehensively defeated in the Champions League's round of 16, losing 3-0 on aggregate to Chelsea.

Atlético will next have a massive encounter against Real Sociedad. This is arguably the toughest match remaining for any of the three title contenders. Win that and they'll be just about there - Atlético's last two matches will be against Osasuna and Valladolid; these matches are two likely victories.

Real's final stretch of matches is probably the most difficult among those of all three teams involved. Although they will be favoured to beat Granada, Villarreal, and Athletic Bilbao, all three are good enough to possibly cause an upset and derail Real's bid for back-to-back league titles.

In addition, the fact that Real made the deepest Champions League run among all three title hopefuls could end up working against them. Fatigue could play a role and perhaps cause them to drop much-needed points. This is especially crucial for Real, given the fact that they no longer control their own destiny.

Barça's final run-in is probably the easiest; they face Levante, Celta Vigo, and Eibar. The only slight question mark is Celta; nevertheless, it is a match which the Catalan club will be expected to win. If Atlético were to drop points, Barça would likely have a better chance than would Real to claim the league title, should one of them come from behind and do just that.

That being said, a shadow hangs over Camp Nou - one which may distract the team to such an extent that it derails their title bid. This shadow is, of course, the possible departure of Lionel Messi in the coming off-season. Almost a year ago, it seemed all but certain that Messi would leave the club at which he has become its most iconic figure and perhaps the greatest player of all time. As rumours continue to fly around, Barça will need to summon all their mental toughness to block them out and make one last push.

In any case, it is certainly refreshing to see a competitive title race in one of Europe's four major leagues. Inter Milan, Manchester City, and Bayern Munich all but clinched the Serie A, Premier League, and Bundesliga titles respectively weeks ago. What's more, the fact the La Liga title race includes three teams separated by just two points marks this season out as the most competitive since the 2013-14 season. That year, it was again the same three teams chasing the title. Atlético triumphed with 90 points; Barça and Real both finished on 87.

It may be somewhat of a cliché to say it, but it increasingly appears as though this season's La Liga champion will be "the team who wants it the most". A title race like this seldom comes around - it could very well be the intangibles that end up making the difference.

Get ready for three of the most dramatic matchdays you've ever seen.