Tuesday, January 28, 2020

The Weekly Take, Issue 99: Breaking the Scudetto Streak

There is a very real possibility that this is the year which sees the end of Juventus' streak of seven consecutive Serie A titles. The most obvious challengers to the title are Inter Milan who have revamped their squad, spent heavily and yet prudently, and reaped the rewards accordingly.

However, there is another team which not many would have expected to be in the title race at this point of the season. This is especially true because this is a team which has not been close to winning the league for many years and which does not have any elite-level superstar talent. Despite this fact, they might just claim the Scudetto if everything breaks the right way; as of right now, they are just five points behind league leaders Juve and have played one game fewer.

The latest edition of the Derby della Capitale saw Roma and Lazio split the points in a 1-1 draw. Edin Džeko opened the scoring for Roma, but Francesco Acerbi's equalizer ensured that Lazio would not leave empty-handed.

Lazio's performance was typical of their season thus far: unconventional and yet tenacious and gritty. Fielding a 3-5-2 formation, they had far less possession as well as far fewer shots and corner kicks than their crosstown rivals. In this case, though, it did not seem to be a case of being outplayed. The Biancocelesti came in with the strategy of soaking up Roma's attacking pressure and generally neutralizing it by restricting Roma to low-quality chances; out of Roma's 22 shots, only three were on target.

While it may be the case that Lazio do not necessarily have the one player who is on that level that can change everything for the better for any team, it must nevertheless be said that this is a team which has been intelligently and thoughtfully constructed and in which all the pieces fit perfectly. The club's core players including Ciro Immobile, Sergej Milinković-Savić, Senad Lulić, Lucas Leiva, and Joaquín Correa have combined seamlessly thus far.

Interestingly, this team has not changed much from last season's iteration. Their only new signing who has played much has been Manuel Lazzari, while Portuguese duo Bruno Jordão and Pedro Neto, who both left for Wolverhampton Wanderers, barely featured at all last season.

Furthermore, although I did mention that Lazio do not have a true superstar on their roster, they very well might soon. At just 24 years old, Milinković-Savić appears to have a tremendously bright future with a very high ceiling. The Serbian midfielder has repeatedly been linked with transfers to some of Europe's leading clubs; such transfer rumours are evidence of just how highly he is regarded. With Cristiano Ronaldo clearly on the decline, it is entirely possible that should Milinković-Savić choose to remain in Serie A, whether with Lazio or another Italian club, he could be one of the five best players in the league as soon as next season.

Lazio have also gained much from well-judged redistribution of playing time. The additional opportunities which have been granted to the likes of Luiz Felipe and Correa, who were players who were not certain starters just one season ago, have been of much benefit to them and the club. Correa's positional versatility which is evidenced by his ability to play as a number 10, a winger, or a centre-forward has been a particular bonus for Lazio; it opens up more tactical options whenever he is on the pitch. Backup striker Felipe Caicedo is simply not capable of providing this multi-positional threat; thus, it is no surprise that as Correa's playing time has increased and Caicedo's has declined, Lazio's form has improved in tandem.

The last time Lazio won Serie A was in 2000. In that year, Lazio had an incredibly stacked team coached by Sven-Göran Eriksson and loaded with legendary players including Alessandro Nesta, Pavel Nedvěd, Juan Sebastián Verón, Diego Simeone, and Marcelo Salas. Considering that the current squad does not have any players of that calibre, the fact that Juve and Inter have probably the two best coaches in the league in Maurizio Sarri and Antonio Conte, as well as Juve's stranglehold on the Scudetto since 2012, a Lazio league title 20 years later would be a more remarkable feat by several orders of magnitude.

Tuesday, January 21, 2020

The Weekly Take, Issue 98: An Absolute Disgrace at All Levels

Liverpool's dominant, historic, almost superhuman season continued on its unstoppable path with a 2-0 victory over arch-rivals Manchester United. Virgil van Dijk and Mo Salah made their way onto the scoresheet for a team that is now surely one of the greatest football teams of all time.

The way Liverpool are run at all levels, from front office and upper management to scouting to coaching and everything else, stands in stark contrast to what has been happening at United. Manchester United right now are being run in an absolutely disgraceful manner. They have become a textbook example of how not to run a football club.

The first point to note is that of signings. During the past off-season, Manchester United massively overpaid to sign Aaron Wan-Bissaka from Crystal Palace for £50 million, then made perhaps the absolute worst value-for-money signing of the off-season by picking up Harry Maguire from Leicester City for the exorbitant fee of £80 million. These ill-advised signings were then compounded by the sale of Romelu Lukaku to Inter Milan; the Belgian has lit up Serie A with 14 league goals in 20 matches to fuel the Nerazzurri's title push. The Red Devils also let central midfielder Ander Herrera leave for nothing; the Spaniard joined Paris Saint-Germain soon after.

Recently, Maguire was also made United captain following the departure of Ashley Young to Inter. Once again, there was absolutely no thought placed into this decision. The England centre-back has little experience captaining a team, just joined United months ago, and only has 124 Premier League matches over four-and-a-half seasons under his belt. In contrast, David de Gea has been at United since 2011, has captained Spain's under-21 team and has even stepped in as United captain from time to time in past matches, and has played 298 league matches for United. While I normally oppose the idea of a goalkeeper as captain, this is an exception because de Gea should so obviously have been the next United captain; there is no rational reason at all as to why Maguire received the armband instead of de Gea.

In hindsight, the selection of Ole Gunnar Solskjær to coach the team in the wake of the firing of José Mourinho has also proven to be a poor one. It is now evident that the Norwegian's hot start in the Old Trafford dugout has proven to be an outlier; he clearly does not have what it takes to coach at the level required of one in charge of Manchester United. However, it should have been obvious that Solskjær was never going to work out as United head coach; during his only half-season in charge of a club in a major football league, he presided over the relegation of Cardiff City in 2014 and only lasted eight months in total before being fired. Despite this fact, the club owners chose to value sentimentality and "good feelings" over facts and track record, and United are now paying the price because of this poorly-considered decision.

The largest share of the blame clearly has to be placed on the shoulders of owners Joel and Avram Glazer. The brothers have no coherent plan, no vision, and no understanding of what it takes to restore United to its former glory. They are obviously making things up as they go along. For that matter, Mourinho's struggles while he had been in charge at United can largely be blamed on ownership as well. Before choosing to hire the Portuguese coach, the Glazer brothers ought to have considered the fact that all of Mourinho's most successful teams followed a particular archetype with which Mourinho would have been most comfortable. Of course, they did not grant Mourinho the freedom to pursue signing such players and instead saddled him with players who were ill-suited to his team concept and tactics.

When considering how Manchester United are being run as well as the fact that there seems to be no end in sight to the club's woes, I feel fairly confident in saying this: if United continue to be run as they are right now, I believe that in 10 to 20 years, Manchester United will be regarded as an irrelevant club and will have permanently fallen away from European football's top table.

Tuesday, January 14, 2020

The Weekly Take, Issue 97: The Final Step Was Never Taken


It is seldom easy for any team to take that final step – the step which causes them to go from being merely a potential qualifier for the Champions League to one which is a perennial contender for league titles and from time to time, perhaps even Champions League titles.

Over the last decade, we have witnessed several teams take that step even if some were not always able to maintain their level of performance. Such teams have included Tottenham, Napoli, Liverpool, and Atlético Madrid.

However, one team which has failed to step up to that level has been Roma; this fact was again evidenced by their 2-1 Serie A loss to Juventus. From a statistical standpoint, one might automatically assume that Roma were in complete control of the match. They took 22 shots to Juve's six, had more possession and completed passes, and had 13 corners to Juve's two. Despite these facts, the numbers do not tell the true story of the match. Juve raced out to an early two-goal lead within the first 10 minutes through a Merih Demiral goal and a Cristiano Ronaldo penalty. After scoring their second goal, Juve then switched tactics; they would let the Giallorossi go into all-out attack mode while they themselves soaked up the pressure from the Roman club. Roma did pull one back through a Diego Perotti penalty, but their chances of finishing the match with a draw always seemed unlikely throughout the proceedings.

Not only have Roma failed to ascend to the level of genuine contenders (which is something they had been expected to accomplish at some point), but they have actually regressed over the past two seasons. Last season, Roma finished sixth in Serie A with 66 points and missed qualification for this season's Champions League. With regard to both league position and number of points, it was their worst league campaign since 2013. Roma were also knocked out of the Champions League's round of 16 by Porto; this was particularly disappointing because most expected Roma to have had no trouble in defeating the Portuguese club. Even the firing of head coach Eusebio Di Francesco, who was replaced by Claudio Ranieri, could not put an end to their woes.

This season, Roma's struggles have continued. After 19 league matchdays, Roma currently lie fifth in the league with 35 points. They are on pace to again miss out on Champions League qualification. They even narrowly avoid a Europa League group stage exit, only qualifying for the round of 32 by one point; however, in saying that, it must also be noted that they surprisingly finished ahead of Borussia Mönchengladbach in doing so.

Roma's lack of success this season is even more notable when one considers the fact that on paper, they made many upgrades to their squad over the past off-season. Players such as Pau López, Amadou Diawara, Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Leonardo Spinazzola, and Jordan Veretout had been expected to make more of an impact than they have thus far. The likes of Nicolò Zaniolo, Lorenzo Pellegrini, Alessandro Florenzi, and Justin Kluivert have also been underperforming throughout this season. Roma's only player to have lived up to expectations at this point of the season has been veteran centre-forward Edin Džeko.

The hiring of Paulo Fonseca during the off-season to replace Ranieri has not delivered the hoped results either. Ever since having arrived at the Stadio Olimpico from Shakhtar Donetsk, the Portuguese coach has had little to no impact on his new team. This is the first time that Fonseca has coached in a major league, and this lack of experience has been clearly exposed. The coaches of the four teams currently ahead of Roma in the league have over 20 complete seasons' worth of major-league coaching between them. Given this fact, the selection of Fonseca to coach a team which should be a fringe league title contender and a perennial Champions League qualifier was a strange one.

The progress of any football team is not always linear. Sometimes, a team peaks before a time when most expect such to be the case. At other times, a team unexpectedly reaches a new level beyond what most expect. Unfortunately for Roma and their fans, the events of the last two seasons seem to have shown that the club clearly belongs in the former category. Titles of any sort seem a long way off right now.

Sunday, January 5, 2020

The Weekly Take, Issue 96: An Overlooked All-Time Great

For one reason or another, some of the greatest footballers of their era have been, are being, or will be overlooked and underappreciated by many a fan. One such player had the outstanding individual performance of the most recent matchday.

In a rather one-sided Madrid derby, between Real Madrid and Getafe, Real's Raphaël Varane was absolutely dominant. The French centre-back put the clamps on Getafe strikers Ángel Rodríguez and Jaime Mata; he even led the charge on the offensive end by scoring two goals.

It was another excellent performance in what has become one of the most storied and yet overlooked careers of the current era. At just 26 years old, Varane already has a litany of notable achievements. He has won four Champions Leagues, two La Liga titles, and a World Cup. Varane was also named to the FIFPro World XI in 2018.

Many do not realize that the man from Lille is already one of the greatest defenders of all time. In each of Los Merengue's Champions League title runs as well as France's victorious World Cup campaign, Varane's defensive excellence served as one of the foundations upon which the victories were built. Over the course of his almost nine years at Real, Varane has been a bedrock of stability and consistency. Yet, when one discusses the current Real team, the names that pop off the page for most includes players such as Thibaut Courtois, Eden Hazard, and Luka Modrić as well as some promising youngsters such as Vinícius Júnior, Luka Jović, and Federico Valverde. Varane is even overshadowed by Sergio Ramos, his regular partner in central defense; however, this is somewhat to be expected because Ramos is unquestionably a top-five, and perhaps the greatest, centre-back of all time (personally, I rank him second behind Franz Beckenbauer).

Varane's role in France's World Cup squad was also somewhat overlooked. Players such as Paul Pogba, Antoine Griezmann, Kylian Mbappé, and N'Golo Kanté claimed most of the spotlight. Once again, Varane's position does not entirely explain this situation; he was again not even the most heralded defender on his own team. Benjamin Pavard scored the goal of the tournament against Argentina and, alongside Mbappé, was one of the tournament's breakout stars.

In 2013, former France defender Frank Leboeuf claimed that Varane would someday surpass Real legend Fernando Hierro. This prediction proved to be on point because by many different metrics, he already has. Clearly, it's difficult to understate just how unjustly overshadowed Varane has been throughout much of his career. He has definitely been among the five best centre-backs on the planet since 2014; in fact, for much of this period, he has been among the top three. Almost any other player with Varane's combination of accolades and personal achievements would be far more celebrated than he is. However, for various reasons, such has not been the case for Varane.

Despite this fact, I believe that Varane will be held in much higher general regard by most fans after he retires than he is today. To put it into perspective, only seven players in history have ever won four Champions Leagues and a World Cup. Of these seven players, six are active; at the age of 26, Varane is by far the youngest of these active players. Add this fact to the related fact that Real should be in contention for more Champions League titles in future years as well as the fact that France will be among the primary World Cup contenders in 2022 and one can easily see that Varane could potentially end his career with an almost unmatched list of honours.

Furthermore, as Varane is just entering his prime right now at 26, it is very possible that we have not yet seen peak Varane. If he does indeed take his game to a new level, he could perhaps challenge Liverpool superstar Virgil van Dijk as the world's finest at his position over the next few years. It must be noted that van Dijk is also two years older than Varane.

Raphaël Varane will certainly be remembered as one of the greatest defenders in football history. In spite of this fact, he has been underappreciated by far too many observers. However, do not be surprised if in 20 years' time, Varane is esteemed as one of the 10 or even five best centre-backs to ever step onto a football pitch.