The Weekly Take, Issue 49: A Promising Season Going Off the Rails

The Madrid derby is one of world football’s most hotly-contested matches. Real Madrid and Atlético Madrid are already two of the best teams on the planet, and the fact that they are city rivals adds another layer of intrigue to the clash.

In the latest instalment of this classic rivalry, Real triumphed over the 10 men of Atlético, winning 3-1. Although Thomas Partey’s red card came late on, it sealed Atlético’s fate, extinguishing any chance of a comeback.

Less than a month ago, Atlético’s season was in a far better position than it is in now.

They were second in La Liga and closing in on leaders Barcelona, in the last 16 of the Champions League, and heading into the second leg of what should have been a straightforward Copa del Rey victory against Girona.

Since then, Atlético have surrendered second place in the league to their resurgent city rivals, were knocked out of the Copa del Rey on away goals by drawing 3-3 in that Girona match, and now seem unlikely to beat Juventus and advance to the Champions League quarterfinals.

So just how did things start going wrong?

One area that deserves criticism is Atlético’s attack. Outside of Antoine Griezmann, Atlético have been truly abysmal up front for a team of their standing. Thus far this season, they have very much been carried by their defense and Griezmann.

Atlético have scored 55 goals in all competitions this season, having played 34 games. This ratio is far lower than those of every other top team in Europe. What is even more damning, however, is the extent to which Atlético depend on Griezmann to shoulder the team’s goalscoring load.

Griezmann is by far Atlético’s leading goalscorer, with 17 this season. The team’s next-highest goalscorer is Koke, who has five. It gets even worse if you restrict this statistic to just La Liga matches. Griezmann has scored 11 of Atlético’s 33 La Liga goals. No other player has more than two. Players such as Nikola Kalinić, Ángel Correa, and Diego Costa have been extremely disappointing. To put this into perspective: if “own goals scored by the opposing team” were a player, it would be tied for being Atlético’s second-highest league goalscorer.

Atlético even failed to deal with this issue properly during the recent transfer window. Instead of going after an in-form striker or someone who has a good goalscoring track record, they picked up Álvaro Morata on loan. Over his career, Morata has only broken double figures in a major league twice, has scored just 56 career major-league goals over almost nine seasons, and was in the midst of a brutal goalscoring slump. Hence, this signing was a rather perplexing one.

Atlético’s away form is also a cause for concern.

If only away matches counted, Atlético would only be fifth in La Liga. Even worse than that is this fact: among teams in Europe’s four major leagues, as of this article, Atlético rank 26th in points per away game.

Clearly, for a team like Atlético, that’s simply not good enough.

While all teams typically play better at home, Atlético’s struggles on the road are at a level one does not expect for a team expected to be challenging for the Champions League.

By not making any major signings during this transfer window, I honestly think they have missed their last chance to mount a serious La Liga or Champions League title bid this season.

As presently constructed, this roster is too unbalanced to land Atlético either title. While Diego Simeone is arguably the best coach in the world, Jan Oblak and Griezmann are genuine superstars, and their defense has been excellent, for whatever reason, their season is falling off the rails.

I have always lauded Atlético’s front office and the outstanding job they have done for the last decade or so. However, that is not the case this season. They overpaid for Thomas Lemar and signed Kalinić and Morata when better players were available. Other than the signing of Rodri, for once, Atlético failed to get it right in the transfer market.

A team can have an amazing coach, two world-class stars, a glamorous market, and significant (though in this case, not exorbitant) wealth, but that all counts for nothing without the right supporting cast, as Atlético Madrid are now finding out.