The Champions League group stage has now ended, and we
now know the identities of each of the teams that have advanced to the round of
16. Among these teams, there will be some who have a strong case to win it all,
some who are fringe contenders, and a handful of others who have absolutely no
chance and will almost certainly be knocked out in the next round.
I will begin by picking out the seven teams who certainly
will not win the Champions League: Tottenham, Porto, Schalke, Ajax, Lyon, Roma,
and Manchester United.
Even if the draw for the round of 16 is favourable to any
of these teams, their ceiling is the quarterfinals. None of them are even
remotely near the requisite amount of talent and quality required to win the
biggest prize in European club football.
In the group stage, these seven teams cumulatively
averaged just 10.6 points and a goal difference of +3.4. These figures drop to 9.7
points and +2.5 respectively after excluding Porto, who are an outlier because
they topped by far the weakest group in the tournament – a group containing
relative lightweights Schalke, Galatasaray, and Lokomotiv Moscow.
None of the teams I just mentioned were a top-seeded team
in their group, and understandably so. Porto have the highest UEFA club
coefficient of the seven teams I believe have no shot; however, their
coefficient of 86 only placed them ninth overall among all of this season’s
Champions League participants.
Now, we will take a look at the teams I consider to be
fringe contenders; they are Borussia Dortmund, Paris Saint-Germain, Bayern
Munich, and Real Madrid.
Yes, Real Madrid.
Although I consider the current Real squad the greatest
dynasty in football history, this season has not gone well for Los Merengues.
The defending champions lost both group-stage games against CSKA Moscow, who
finished bottom of their group. Santiago Solari’s team are also struggling in
La Liga. After 15 league games, Real are fourth, five points behind leaders and
arch-rivals Barcelona. This is largely due to the fact that they have already
lost five league games. Thus, I cannot say that Real are among the favourites
to win it all; it will be difficult for them to win an astonishing fourth consecutive
Champions League title.
PSG, who were also among the pre-tournament favourites to
win it all, also clearly showed their frailties in the group stage. Although
they were drawn in the tournament’s “Group of Death” alongside Liverpool and
Napoli, it doesn’t change the fact that the Paris club were almost knocked out
of the tournament in the first round. Despite boasting a star-laden roster
containing the likes of Edinson Cavani, Neymar, Ángel Di María, and Kylian
Mbappé, they laboured to a 3-2-1 group stage record. Furthermore, PSG are
perennial underachievers on European football’s biggest stage – over the last
six seasons, they have been knocked out in the quarterfinals four times and round
of 16 twice. While on paper, PSG are arguably the world’s most talented team,
the reality is that their odds to win the Champions League are not particularly
good.
Dortmund topped Group A and recorded an impressive 4-0
victory over Atlético Madrid along the way. They also have a comfortable lead
in the Bundesliga. Unfortunately for Die Schwarzgelbe, the major knock on them
is the fact that they do not have a genuine superstar on their roster, and this
severely limits their ceiling. However, given how impressive they have been in
the Bundesliga and Champions League, if any team with a relative lack of star
power can overcome the odds and make a deep run, it could very well be
Dortmund. Nevertheless, they certainly cannot be placed among the favourites
because they don’t have that one guy who is likely to “lead them to the
promised land”.
Finally, we come to Dortmund’s Bundesliga rivals Bayern.
This has been a difficult season for the five-time champions. Bayern’s
stuttering league form has left them third in the Bundesliga, nine points
behind leaders Dortmund. This inconsistent form almost cost coach Niko Kovač
his job. Despite finishing first in Group E, Kovač’s team were never really all
that convincing in a group that also included Ajax, Benfica, and AEK Athens –
three team whom Bayern should have finished ahead of by more than they did.
That being said, Bayern have been known to consistently deliver results in the
Champions League. Since 2010, they have advanced to the semifinals of the
tournament in all but two seasons. Couple that with the considerable amount of
talent running through the squad, and you have a team that, though they might
not necessarily win it all, will definitely be a tough out.
This leaves us with the five teams which I believe have a
genuine chance to win the Champions League: Atlético Madrid, Barcelona,
Liverpool, Manchester City, and Juventus.
After four seasons of deep Champions League runs including
runner-up finishes in 2014 and 2016, Atlético were knocked out of last season’s
Champions League group stage in stunning fashion, finishing behind Roma and
Chelsea. This season, however, notwithstanding their thrashing at the hands of
Dortmund, Atlético have looked extremely impressive throughout the tournament.
Led by Antoine Griezmann, who is capably supported by the likes of Jan Oblak,
Filipe Luís, Saúl Ñiguez, Thomas Lemar, and Diego Godín, Atlético have the
personnel, coaching, and team chemistry to potentially get over the hump and
win the Champions League for the first time in club history.
As was expected, Barcelona topped a group containing
Tottenham, Inter Milan, and PSV Eindhoven with absolutely no problems at all.
What could be ominous for the teams that they will face in future rounds is the
fact that Lionel Messi was shockingly snubbed from the top three in the Ballon
d’Or rankings. It is likely that the Barça superstar took this slight
personally and will use the rest of the La Liga and Champions League season as
his “revenge tour”. Given the fact that Messi’s supporting cast of Ivan
Rakitić, Luis Suárez, Jordi Alba, Philippe Coutinho, and others have also been
in terrific form this season, the Blaugrana will not be easy to stop.
Having lost in last season’s final, Liverpool cannot be
overlooked as title contenders. What is notable is that the Reds no longer live
and die by the goals of Mohamed Salah. This season, players such as Georginio
Wijnaldum, Sadio Mané, and Joe Gomez have clearly stepped up their level of
play. Beyond that, Liverpool made some excellent off-season signings. Xherdan
Shaqiri, Alisson, Naby Keїta, and Fabinho have all proved to fit seamlessly
into this Liverpool team. Although they started the Champions League slowly,
only advancing to the round of 16 with a 2-3-1 record, expect them to only get better
as the tournament progresses.
The next team to be looked at is Manchester City. Although
their play this season has somewhat gone under the radar, they definitely have
a chance to win the Champions League. Players such as Bernardo Silva, Raheem
Sterling, Aymeric Laporte, and of course, Sergio Agüero have all been firing on
all cylinders. The major question mark hanging over this team, however, is the
fact that none of them have even been to the Champions League final, let alone
won it all. Despite this, City are so star-laden and richly talented that it
should not be any trouble for them to make another deep Champions League run.
Finally, we come to Juventus. Much like Liverpool, don’t
be fooled by their relatively pedestrian group-stage record of 4-0-2. Obviously,
Juve’s off-season was dominated by the acquisition of Cristiano Ronaldo from
Real Madrid, but the signings of João Cancelo and Leonardo Bonucci have also
been key to their success this season. Another factor that may aid the
Bianconeri’s push for a first Champions League title since 1996 is their
massive Serie A lead. They are 15-1-0 right now and will almost certainly pick
up yet another Scudetto. Hence, Juve are more able than most other teams to
emphasize Champions League play.
Of course, there will be many more twists and turns as
the Champions League continues. Surely, at least one of the teams I just named
as being among the contenders will suffer a shock upset, and there will almost
certainly be an underdog run by a team that nobody expects to do so.
But for now, as I see it, this is how it stands.
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