The Weekly Take, Issue 27: No Need for a Reset

The inaugural edition of the UEFA Nations League is now underway. As national teams across Europe battle to earn a spot in the UEFA Nations League finals to be held in June, compelling storylines will play out.

One such storyline was the one that unfolded during Germany’s match against France, which finished in a 0-0 draw.

This match, which featured the newly-crowned world champions against the team they deposed, was accompanied by much interest because there were many questions about how these teams would follow up their World Cup campaigns.

This was especially true of Germany, because against all expectations, Die Mannschaft were knocked out of the tournament in the first round, losing to Mexico and South Korea along the way. Furthermore, Germany had also been affected by the fallout of a picture showing Mesut Özil and İlkay Gündoğan with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, which ultimately led to Özil’s retirement from international football.

Given such adverse circumstances, one would expect Germany to be soundly beaten by Les Bleus. However, not only did Germany manage a draw, they even outplayed France for large portions of the game.

What’s more, every single player in Germany’s starting 11 was a member of their dismal World Cup campaign.

So just what happened here? How were they able to turn it around so quickly?

One reason for this is the fact that, despite being knocked out in the group stage, Germany didn’t actually play as badly as many think during the World Cup.

In Germany’s first World Cup game against Mexico, Germany dominated the game, taking 25 shots to Mexico’s 12 and earning eight corner kicks to Mexico’s one. Germany also had 61% of the possession, but somehow couldn’t quite finish off El Tri.

If this same game were to be played under the same set of circumstances 10 times, Germany would likely win at least six or seven times. Unfortunately for them, they experienced the result which was far less likely.

The same was true of Germany’s loss against South Korea, which knocked the Germans out of the tournament. Once again, Germany dictated play right from the start of the game, drawing 16 fouls to the Koreans’ seven, taking 26 shots to South Korea’s 11, and having 70% of the possession.

Once again, somehow, in spite of their otherwise solid play, Germany managed to lose a game which ordinarily, they would have won.

Although the group-stage exit was a result which nobody saw coming, it wasn’t as if Germany were taken apart during the World Cup.

Furthermore, Germany appear to have a promising crop of youngsters that have come or are coming through the pipeline.

The likes of Niklas Süle, Leroy Sané, Antonio Rüdiger, Timo Werner, Julian Brandt, and Leon Goretzka easily have another six to eight prime years left in them, if not more.

What’s more, looking at their under-21 squad, there is certainly much potential there. Players such as Jonathan Tah, Thilo Kehrer, Mahmoud Dahoud, and Salih Özcan all seem like very promising prospects who have good chances of being part of Germany’s team for the 2022 World Cup, if everything goes as it should.

The fact that Joachim Löw is still in charge of this team also should not be overlooked.

Löw is arguably the greatest international football coach of all time. Over 12 years at the helm of the German national team, Löw has led them to at least the semifinals of every major tournament they have entered, with the obvious exception of the 2018 World Cup. He took them to World Cup victory in 2014, and also led a Germany squad mostly made up of backups to the 2017 Confederations Cup title.

Although what happened in Russia was clearly not his best work, given his track record, it was an aberration, not an indictment on his coaching.

Given all the factors laid out above, as well as the fact that Germany managed a solid result against the reigning world champions, despite the outlook from the outside, it is certainly not time to panic yet. Although the World Cup didn’t quite go according to plan for the Germans, they are in better shape than most think, and will certainly be contenders for Euro 2020 and the 2022 World Cup.