Sunday, July 29, 2018

The Weekly Take, Issue 21: Flying Under the Radar


The transfer window is now in full swing, and several notable transfers have already taken place.

Some of the most notable players to have changed clubs thus far include Jorginho, who has left Napoli for Chelsea; Gianluigi Buffon, who went from Juventus to Paris Saint-Germain; Riyad Mahrez, who finally maded his long-anticipated move from Leicester to Manchester City; and of course, Cristiano Ronaldo, whose transfer from Real Madrid to Juventus stunned the football world and even managed to temporarily take its focus away from the World Cup.

However, on many an occasion, it has not been the blockbuster transfers that have had the most impact on the season to come, but rather, the transfers that were initially greeted by little fanfare, but subsequently turned out to change the course of the season, and sometimes multiple seasons thereafter as well.

For example, during last off-season’s transfer window, the most talked-about transfers that hogged all the attention included the following: Álvaro Morata leaving Real Madrid for Chelsea, Romelu Lukaku’s transfer from Everton to Manchester United, and of course, Neymar’s record-breaking move from Barcelona to Paris Saint-Germain, which, as far as the transfer market itself is concerned, fundamentally altered the transfer market forever.

However, in terms of the impact a signing made on his new team, by far the most impactful signing of the transfer window was that of Mohamed Salah, who left Roma to join Liverpool in a move that was largely overlooked by many.

Salah went on to prove the folly of those who underestimated him by playing an incredible season marked by his scoring 32 league goals, leading Liverpool to the Champions League final, and winning a bevy of individual awards, including Premier League Player of the Season, PFA Players’ Player of the Year, FWA Footballer of the Year, and African Footballer of the Year.

On the other hand, Morata’s season was so poor that he missed Spain’s World Cup squad, Neymar missed a large portion of the season with a foot injury, and while Lukaku did have a solid season, it was nowhere near the level of Salah’s.
This phenomenon has occurred before.

In the mid-season transfer window of 2011, several transfers which generated tremendous amounts of hype were made. Chief among them were the signings of Fernando Torres and Andy Carroll, who moved from Liverpool to Chelsea and Newcastle to Liverpool respectively. The immense buzz that accompanied these transfers caused Manchester City’s signing of Edin Džeko from Wolfsburg to be overshadowed.

However, circumstances would play out in the exact opposite manner that one would expect, given how much hype each of these signings received.

Neither Torres nor Carroll ever really adapted well to life at their new clubs, and both soon entered a terminal decline. On the other hand, throughout his tenure at City, Džeko was a key contributor, scoring 50 league goals and helping City win two league titles before departing for Roma in 2015. Džeko scored more goals over this period than Torres and Carroll combined.

Several of the world’s best players today were once under-the-radar signings as well. Not many had heard of N’Golo Kanté in 2015, Diego Costa in 2010, or Mats Hummels in 2009; however, all three went on to make major contributions to their new clubs: Leicester, Atlético Madrid, and Borussia Dortmund respectively.

It takes a shrewd team to figure out which players who have been slept on and overlooked are ready to make the jump and become a key contributor on a top team. Many under-the-radar signings who succeed and make significant impacts were selected based on careful scouting, thorough evaluation, and knowledge about how they would fit into their new team.

Conversely, in the examples already provided about hyped transfers of players who never quite reached the expected levels, the clubs who signed these players went directly for the “star names” without considering the context, or how each player would fit into the team.

As the transfer window carries on, there will surely be more big-name transfers to come which will attract all the headlines. However, do not overlook supposedly “lesser” signings, because some team out there might have just unearthed a true gem who turns out to be the missing piece they needed all along.

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