Every four years, before the World Cup, millions of football fans the world over fill out their tournament brackets.
When the tournament ends, these charts will make their creators look like experts, idiots, or anything else in between.
Some end up coming fairly close to matching the real results, while others are nowhere near.
The following are my tips to making a World Cup bracket that will give you ultimate bragging rights among your peers and make your bracket the envy of everyone you know.
1) Accept that there will be mistakes
The odds of correctly predicting every single outcome are so ridiculously small that they might as well be considered impossible.
Somewhere during the tournament, your bracket will begin to unravel.
Even one small error will go on to have major implications.
So, it’s not a question of the perfect bracket.
It’s a question of being as close to perfection as you can.
2) The favourites don’t always top their groups
Placing all the favourites first in their groups is a rookie mistake.
Every year, some of the favourites will qualify from their group as the second-placed team.
In fact, sometimes the favourites don’t even get out of their group.
3) Don’t overlook unfancied countries
It is tempting to only put powerhouse teams from Europe or South America in your final 16.
Once again, this is the mark of a bracket amateur.
Ever since the tournament expanded its second round to 16 teams in 1986, there has always been at least one team from Asia, Africa, or North America to reach that stage.
In fact, in the last two World Cups, five such teams made it out of their groups.
4) Underdog runs/upsets
Every World Cup will have an underdog run that reaches at least the last eight.
One of the most famous examples is Croatia in 1998.
Despite never having participated in the World Cup before, as well as the fact that their war-stricken country had only been an independent nation for less than a decade, the Vatreni shocked the world by reaching the semifinals, after advancing from a group that contained Argentina, as well as knocking out Germany in the semifinals.
This is probably the most difficult part to predict.
However, anyone who correctly predicts the surprise package of the World Cup immediately looks like a genius.
Similarly, in every World Cup, at least one of the favourites will be knocked out in the group stage or second round.
The most iconic incidence of this is Brazil in 1982.
Heading into the tournament, the question was not who would win the World Cup, but who would lose to the Seleção in the final.
Brazil proceeded to lose to Italy in the second round.
Certainly, many people’s predictions went down in flames that year.
Although this is also difficult to predict, it is not quite as difficult as picking a surprise package.
Tips include looking out for top teams in difficult groups, as well as teams who are internally dysfunctional and do not function well as a unit.
5) Forget the past; focus on the present
A savvy predictor will resist the temptation to load their final-stage teams with historical powerhouses without giving any thought to how these teams are currently performing.
Furthermore, there is always a possibility that teams with not much historical success, but who currently have the best team to ever come from that country, will rewrite the history books and break new ground.
A prime example is Spain in 2010.
Before the 2010 World Cup, Spain had no history of World Cup success. Only once before, in 1950, had La Furia Roja made the final four of a World Cup. However, with a star-laden squad, Spain defied their history of failure and won it all.
To all those making a bracket for the World Cup, I only have one thing to say.
In the words of Suzanne Collins, “may the odds be ever in your favour”.
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