The Weekly Take, Issue 19: Bracketology for Dummies

Every four years, before the World Cup, millions of football fans the world over fill out their tournament brackets.

When the tournament ends, these charts will make their creators look like experts, idiots, or anything else in between.

Some end up coming fairly close to matching the real results, while others are nowhere near.

The following are my tips to making a World Cup bracket that will give you ultimate bragging rights among your peers and make your bracket the envy of everyone you know.

1) Accept that there will be mistakes

The odds of correctly predicting every single outcome are so ridiculously small that they might as well be considered impossible.

Somewhere during the tournament, your bracket will begin to unravel.

Even one small error will go on to have major implications.

So, it’s not a question of the perfect bracket.

It’s a question of being as close to perfection as you can.

2) The favourites don’t always top their groups

Placing all the favourites first in their groups is a rookie mistake.

Every year, some of the favourites will qualify from their group as the second-placed team.

In fact, sometimes the favourites don’t even get out of their group.

3) Don’t overlook unfancied countries

It is tempting to only put powerhouse teams from Europe or South America in your final 16.

Once again, this is the mark of a bracket amateur.

Ever since the tournament expanded its second round to 16 teams in 1986, there has always been at least one team from Asia, Africa, or North America to reach that stage.

In fact, in the last two World Cups, five such teams made it out of their groups.

4) Underdog runs/upsets

Every World Cup will have an underdog run that reaches at least the last eight.

One of the most famous examples is Croatia in 1998.

Despite never having participated in the World Cup before, as well as the fact that their war-stricken country had only been an independent nation for less than a decade, the Vatreni shocked the world by reaching the semifinals, after advancing from a group that contained Argentina, as well as knocking out Germany in the semifinals.

This is probably the most difficult part to predict.

However, anyone who correctly predicts the surprise package of the World Cup immediately looks like a genius.

Similarly, in every World Cup, at least one of the favourites will be knocked out in the group stage or second round.

The most iconic incidence of this is Brazil in 1982.

Heading into the tournament, the question was not who would win the World Cup, but who would lose to the Seleção in the final.

Brazil proceeded to lose to Italy in the second round.

Certainly, many people’s predictions went down in flames that year.

Although this is also difficult to predict, it is not quite as difficult as picking a surprise package.

Tips include looking out for top teams in difficult groups, as well as teams who are internally dysfunctional and do not function well as a unit.

5) Forget the past; focus on the present

A savvy predictor will resist the temptation to load their final-stage teams with historical powerhouses without giving any thought to how these teams are currently performing.

Furthermore, there is always a possibility that teams with not much historical success, but who currently have the best team to ever come from that country, will rewrite the history books and break new ground.

A prime example is Spain in 2010.

Before the 2010 World Cup, Spain had no history of World Cup success. Only once before, in 1950, had La Furia Roja made the final four of a World Cup. However, with a star-laden squad, Spain defied their history of failure and won it all.

To all those making a bracket for the World Cup, I only have one thing to say.

In the words of Suzanne Collins, “may the odds be ever in your favour”.

The Weekly Take, Issue 18: End-of-Season Special: Top 10 Moments of the Season

The 2017-18 European club football season has reached its end, and every club will now take a look at everything they have gone through this season, and hopefully use their experiences this season to set them up well for next season.

However, there were clearly some moments throughout the season that stood out.

In chronological order, the following are, in my opinion, the 10 most memorable moments of the 2017-18 season.

Mohamed Salah signs for Liverpool (June 22, 2017)

When Salah joined the Reds from Roma for a fee of €42 million, not even the most ardent Liverpool fan could have expected the signing to move the needle the way it did. This was understandable, considering that at the time of the signing, Salah had only scored 57 career league goals in an eight-year career.

However, he clearly was the breakout star of the season, scoring 32 league goals, leading Liverpool to the Champions League final and Egypt to the World Cup, finishing second in the European Golden Shoe rankings, winning various awards including African Footballer of the Year, Premier League Player of the Season, and FWA Footballer of the Year, and emerging as a genuine Ballon d’Or candidate.

Taking his transfer fee into account, this was easily the signing of the season.

Neymar signs for PSG (August 3, 2017)

It is one thing to break the world transfer record. It is quite another to shatter it in the manner that PSG did when they signed Neymar from Barcelona for €222 million, more than double the previous record set when Paul Pogba signed for Manchester United for €105 million just one year earlier.

In an extremely successful four-year stint with the Blaugrana, the Brazilian superstar won six major trophies, including the 2015 Champions League. He also was the top scorer of the tournament that year, and domestically, he scored 68 league goals in 123 games for Barça.

Unfortunately for him, his debut season in Paris was cut short when he broke the fifth metatarsal bone in his right foot in a match against Marseille in February.

Borussia Dortmund 4-4 Schalke (November 25, 2017)

This was probably the most enthralling league match of the season. It had it all: it was a derby, it featured a comeback from 4-0 behind, a superstar received a red card, and it was laden with goals.

Dortmund led 4-0 at halftime through goals scored by Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Mario Götze, and Raphaël Guerreiro, as well as a Benjamin Stambouli own goal.

However, in the second half, aided by an Aubameyang red card, Schalke scored four goals to leave the derby with the most improbable of draws.

Philippe Coutinho signs for Barcelona (January 6, 2018)

It didn’t take long for Barça to replace Neymar with another Brazilian star.

Throughout the season, Coutinho had been linked with a move to the Catalan club from Liverpool. In fact, in the previous off-season, Liverpool had rejected a ₤72 million bid for Coutinho from Barcelona. This drove Coutinho to submit a transfer request, and this request was fulfilled in January, when Barça signed him for ₤105 million.

Coutinho went on to play an important role in the second half Barça’s Double-winning campaign, immediately becoming a regular starter and fitting in seamlessly.

Roma 3-0 Barcelona (April 10, 2018)

In the first leg of their Champions League quarterfinal, Barça took Roma apart, winning 4-1. This meant that in order to advance to the semifinals, Roma had to win the second-leg match by four or more goals, or 3-0, which would have put the Giallorossi through on away goals. Heading into the second leg, almost everyone assumed that the tie was all but decided, but that was not the case.

An early Edin Džeko goal pulled Roma within two, with much of the match still to be played. Then, in the 58th minute, Roma won a penalty, which was duly converted by Daniele De Rossi. Finally, in the 82nd minute, Konstantinos Manolas forever etched his name into Roma’s history books by scoring the goal which completed the incredible comeback and knocked out the team favoured to win it all.

As if that weren’t enough, De Rossi and Manolas had scored own goals in the first leg, making their goals in the second leg even more dramatic.

Arsène Wenger announces departure from Arsenal (April 20, 2018)

A day that seemed as though it would never come finally did.

After years of much pressure from Arsenal fans, Wenger announced that he would end his 22-year stint at the helm of the Gunners at the end of the season.

Wenger left Arsenal with something of a mixed record: he won 10 major trophies during his time at Arsenal and led the club to an unbeaten Premier League campaign in 2004, but also presided over a nine-year trophy drought, and in 19 Champions League campaigns, only made it to the semifinals twice.

Andrés Iniesta announces departure from Barcelona (April 27, 2018)

Wenger was not the only long-serving, iconic figure to leave his club this season. In fact, Iniesta’s departure caused even more of a stir, as he is probably a top-10 player of all time, Spain’s greatest-ever player, and perhaps the greatest central midfielder in the history of football.

In an unbelievable 16-year career at Barça, Iniesta played 674 matches for the Blaugrana, including 442 in La Liga. During this time, he won nine La Liga titles, six Copa del Rey titles, and four Champions Leagues. He was also named to the FIFA FIFPro World XI nine times, as well as the UEFA Team of the Year six times.

Iniesta’s next career stop will be J1 League club Vissel Kobe.

Levante 5-4 Barcelona (May 13, 2018)

With two matches left to be played in the La Liga season, Barcelona had yet to taste defeat. Over the last 40 years, only on four occasions had a team from one of the four major leagues completed an unbeaten league campaign, and none of them were La Liga clubs.

However, aided by Barça coach Ernesto Valverde’s fateful decision to bench Lionel Messi, as well as a remarkable hat-trick scored by Emmanuel Boateng, Levante ruined Barcelona’s pursuit of an unbeaten season.

Barça thus missed out on joining the likes of Perugia 1979, AC Milan 1992, Arsenal 2004, and Juventus 2012, though they did secure a league and cup double.

Lazio 2-3 Inter Milan (May 20, 2018)

The race for the fourth and final Champions League spot from Serie A came down to the last day of the season. Lazio needed a draw to qualify for the 2018-19 Champions League, while for Inter, only a win would do.

After 78 minutes, Lazio led 2-1 and were in a very comfortable position. That was when all hell proceeded to break loose.

Inter Milan earned a penalty, which was converted by Mauro Icardi. Shortly after that, Lazio midfielder Senad Lulić received a red card. Two minutes later, Matías Vecino put Inter 3-2 up, a lead they would never surrender. To top it all off, in the third minute of stoppage time, Lazio defender Patric received his team’s second red card of the match. In a truly astonishing final-day clash, it was the Nerazzurri who came out on top, and thus qualified for the Champions League.

Real Madrid 3-1 Liverpool (May 26, 2018)

The 2018 Champions League final will surely be remembered as one of the all-time iconic matches in club football history. It contained a spectacular goal scored by Real’s Gareth Bale, two dreadful errors by Liverpool goalkeeper Loris Karius, and an intriguing tactical battle between coaches Zinedine Zidane and Jürgen Klopp.

However, most importantly, it ended with Real completing their “three-peat”, sealing their place as football immortals and confirming them as probably the greatest club team of all time.

No team had ever won back-to-back European titles, let alone three in a row, since the tournament began its existence in its current form in the 1999-2000 season. This current Real Madrid team has not only broken new ground, but gone so far into this new ground that I believe no team will match its feats for at least another 50 years.