The race for the Premier League’s three remaining UEFA Champions League spots will go down to the final matchday. In contention for these three berths in next season’s tournament are Newcastle United, Chelsea, Aston Villa, Manchester City, and Nottingham Forest.
Prior to the most recent matchday, there’d been an extra qualification spot up for grabs; however, Arsenal claimed it with a 1-0 home win over Newcastle. Declan Rice scored the only goal of the match early in the second half to ensure that the Gunners would qualify for the Champions League for the third season in a row.
Despite the loss, the fate of Newcastle’s Champions League qualification remains in their own hands with just one league match remaining. All the Magpies have to do to clinch Champions League qualification and potentially a top-three league finish for the first time since 2003 is beat Everton at home. Should they do so, Newcastle would not be able to finish any lower than fifth regardless of what the other teams in contention would be able to do.
That being said, based on their recent form, there’s no guarantee that Newcastle will be able to close the deal. Having won just two of their last five league matches, the reigning Carabao Cup champions have fallen into a spotty run of form at the absolute worst time possible.
What really doesn’t help matters - and perhaps the main reason why Newcastle lost to Arsenal - is the groin injury suffered by star striker Alexander Isak. The Swede has beyond any doubt established himself as a truly elite striker and is far and away Newcastle’s best player; however, following this injury, he’s now a doubt to return for the match against Everton. Without Isak leading the line, Newcastle lacked that extra bit of punch up front; it was that “X-factor” that Newcastle were missing which likely prevented them from getting the better of Arsenal’s defense.
It should be noted that in Newcastle’s reverse fixture against Everton earlier this season, Newcastle only managed a goalless draw - and this was without Isak. Should Isak be absent for the season finale, Newcastle’s path to next season’s Champions League becomes that much more difficult.
Another factor which is more than likely playing a role in Newcastle’s late-season decline in form is fatigue. While fatigue certainly impacts every team at this stage of the season, Newcastle are one of the teams which will feel its effects more than most. This is because for all that he has achieved over almost four full seasons at St James’ Park, head coach Eddie Howe still has one glaring issue which he has not corrected. By and large, Howe has less willing to rotate his starting 11 than have many of his opposite numbers - and while this has provided stability, it has also increased the physical toll on Newcastle’s key players.
What makes this point stand out even more is the fact that Newcastle weren’t involved in any continental tournaments this season. As such, with Newcastle guaranteed a spot in at least the UEFA Conference League in 2025-26, Howe will have to get used to rotating his squad more often - not doing so will be to the obvious detriment of the team.
All things considered, regardless of how the final matchday goes, Newcastle’s season has to be deemed a resounding success simply because of their historic Carabao Cup triumph - the club’s first title of any sort since 1969. However, in order for Newcastle to sustain this success instead of dropping off right away as they did last season following a Champions League qualification the season before, they’ll likely have to make important off-season acquisitions.
Among the most notable names linked with a move to Tyneside include English defenders Marc Guéhi and Fikayo Tomori as well as Portuguese striker Gonçalo Ramos who is rumored to be targeted by Newcastle should Isak leave in the off-season. While none of these players would likely push Newcastle into title contention next season, they’d nonetheless give a further push to Newcastle’s bid for back-to-back Champions League qualifications for the first time in 23 years.
In a nutshell, although Newcastle United don’t seem to be finishing the season in quite the way they’d hoped, there are significantly more positives than negatives that they can build on - potentially for another Champions League campaign?
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