The Weekly Take, Issue 355: The Hottest Streak Gets Even Hotter

The latest iteration of the Seville derby saw two clubs in completely different runs of form facing off. Real Betis entered the match on a streak of five consecutive wins in La Liga; seemingly out of nowhere, they’d flipped the switch in mid-February and have since been in molten-hot form, taking win after win—including one against Real Madrid. With this recent surge, Betis had forced their way into contention for a top-four spot and a berth in next season’s Champions League.

Sevilla, on the other hand, could barely have been further away as far as pre-match form was concerned. Over their prior eight matches, Sevilla had won just two, collecting just eight points out of a possible 24 along the way. However, in many cases the results of derby matches have nothing to do with the teams’ form heading into the match—the one thing Sevilla had going for them, however scant it may have been.

Sevilla scored the opening goal against the run of play in the 17th minute. Swiss winger Rubén Vargas put Sevilla a goal ahead after having been set up by Dodi Lukébakio. This, however, didn’t last as just eight minutes later, Betis scored the equalizer via Johnny Cardoso’s volley.

Betis would go on to take the lead during first-half stoppage time when Cucho Hernández put the ball past Sevilla goalkeeper Ørjan Nyland after having been set-up for a one-on-one chance by veteran midfielder Isco. Neither side would add to the scoresheet in the second half, ensuring Betis would claim their sixth league win in a row and their first derby victory since a 5-3 victory back in 2018.

Over the past month and a half, Betis have been through a stunning turnaround. After four consecutive seasons of finishing between fifth and seventh in La Liga, the 2024-25 campaign had been shaping up to represent a significant step backwards for Betis; they were in 11th place prior to this six-match win streak. At this point, however, Betis are now in sixth place and have a puncher’s chance of overhauling Athletic Bilbao who are currently fourth.

So how did this happen? Well, for one thing, Betis’ hot streak highlights the importance of the mid-season transfer window. It’s no coincidence that their recent surge began in mid-February after the end of the transfer window. Despite bringing just two players to Estadio Benito Villamarín, both have been highly impactful acquisitions. Over the past month and a half, Hernández - signed from Major League Soccer club Columbus Crew for €13 million - and Antony who was brought in on loan from Manchester United have been arguably the club’s two best players. Both have added another layer to Betis’ play which the club simply didn’t have earlier on in the season; the results since then are clear evidence of this.

Prior to this season, the aforementioned four straight seasons in the top seven coincided with the hiring of Manuel Pellegrini in the off-season heading into the 2020-21 season. The Chilean has since proven that he is one of the most underrated coaches in world football today; this has been most obvious this season as Pellegrini has played a major role in taking Betis from being mired in mid-table and facing a throwaway season to the chase for a Champions League spot - and in their current form, they might just pull it off.

The late-career revival of Isco has to be mentioned as well. After a difficult last season at Real, Isco signed for Sevilla in August 2022 but was cut a little over four months later. After remaining unsigned for the rest of the season, Betis signed him in the 2023 off-season. Since arriving at Betis, Isco looks more like the player who played a major role in Real’s four Champions League title runs over his nine years at the Santiago Bernabéu - something not many might have expected when Betis first signed him.

At this point, Real Betis would be written off at one’s peril; in their current form, they might just qualify for the Champions League for the first time in the club’s history. This would have seemed all but impossible just two months ago. While it’s certainly not a lock by any means, right now the only thing that can be realistically said of Betis is “why not them”?

The Weekly Take, Issue 354: International Football's Most Storied Rivalry Adds a New Chapter

The quarterfinals of the UEFA Nations League saw arch-rivals Germany and Italy paired against each other - and over the two legs, the fixture more than lived up to the reputation created by many iconic Germany/Italy matches over the years.

The first leg at San Siro saw Italy take an early lead through a goal scored by Sandro Tonali. However, things turned around after the break. Tim Kleindienst, who had replaced Mainz striker Jonathan Burkardt at half-time, found the net just a few minutes later and thus put Die Mannschaft back on level terms. In the 76th minute, Germany took the lead after Leon Goretzka scored with a header off a cross from Bayern Munich teammate Joshua Kimmich. It was also Kimmich’s second assist of the match after having set up the prior goal scored by Borussia Mönchengladbach striker Kleindienst. The first leg would end 2-1 to Germany.

After the first half of the second leg at Signal Iduna Park, it looked as though Italy were dead in the water. Germany took a 3-0 match lead, and thus a 5-1 aggregate lead into the half-time break, following goals scored by Kimmich, Jamal Musiala, and Kleindienst. At that point it seemed like a wrap; however, the Azzurri mounted a furious comeback in the second half. Fiorentina striker Moise Kean scored in the 49th and 69th minutes to give Italy a glimmer of hope. In stoppage time, Giacomo Raspadori scored a penalty to put Italy a step closer - but they ultimately ran out of time; Germany would advance to the semi-finals.

At this point, it’s safe to say that Germany vs Italy is the greatest rivalry in the history of international football. This was an instant classic without any question; however, as pulsating as this Nations League fixture - especially the second leg - was, it still doesn’t even match up to the most iconic matches between the two.

This is a rivalry which has seen matches like the 1970 World Cup semifinal, the 1982 World Cup final, the 2006 World Cup semifinal, and the Euro 2012 semifinal. While Germany/Italy might not have the sheer incendiary nature of Brazil/Argentina, the historic weight of Germany/Netherlands, or even the sociopolitically-charged element that Argentina/England has, when it comes to strictly the on-field product, no other rivalry has churned out banger after banger like this one has.

In addition to all those epic matches, another element that further elevates this rivalry is the fact that over the years, there have been clear narratives running through it. For example, until 2022, Germany had never beaten Italy in a tournament match without needing at least extra time. This changed in spectacular style when Germany beat Italy 5-2 in their second of two group matches in the 2022-23 Nations League.

On the flipside, some of Italy’s wins over Germany have bolstered their own narratives as well. Cases in point: their 1982 World Cup and Euro 2012 victories spearheaded by a pair of controversial strikers: Paolo Rossi and Mario Balotelli respectively. Despite the off-field drama that had surrounded each of them even long before their respective tournaments, both silenced the doubters with match-winning performances and etched their names into the history of this iconic rivalry.

One final reason why Germany/Italy is the greatest of all international football rivalries is the fact that it involves two of the most decorated and historically successful international football teams ever. Although it may be true that Italy haven’t even made it to the last two World Cups while Germany largely struggled throughout that same period, that’s been a minor blip - both Germany and Italy have almost always been elite or close to it at the same time and for the vast majority of the respective team histories. After all, eight World Cups and five European Championships between the two speak for themselves.

No other international football rivalry brings every element of what makes a rivalry truly epic to the table the way the one between Germany and Italy does. After something of a lull following their Euro 2016 match as both teams entered difficult periods, Europe’s two most successful international teams ever are both once again back on the rise—and without any question, this iconic rivalry will have so much more to offer over the years to come.

The Weekly Take, Issue 353: The Clear Team to Beat Right Now

The most recent La Liga matchday was highlighted by a match which saw Atlético Madrid host Barcelona in a clash which would have major implications on this season’s title race. A win for Barça would put them in first place in the league - and even that after having played a game less than Real Madrid who would then be second.

As for Atlético, this match represented an opportunity to gain important ground on Barça. By beating their Catalan opponents, Atlético would move two points clear of them and just one point behind cross-town arch-rivals Real. In addition, this was also an opportunity for Atlético to bounce back after Real had just knocked them out of the Champions League’s round of 16 in a penalty shootout.

Atlético took the lead shortly before half-time. Julián Alvarez atoned for his crucial missed penalty in Atlético’s prior Champions League fixture by opening the scoring off a pass from Giuliano Simeone. By doing so, Alvarez punished Barça for blowing several key chances earlier in the half.

In the 70th minute, Alexander Sørloth made it 2-0 in Atlético’s favor and seemingly clinched the win over the Blaugrana. Having come off the bench, the Norwegian striker beat the offside trap to score Atlético’s second. At this point, it looked as though Atlético had it in the bag.

Remarkably, Barça flipped the script with two goals over the next eight minutes. Robert Lewandowski and Ferran Torres pulled Barça level, making this somewhat of an inverse to the first leg of the two teams’ recent Copa Del Rey semifinal when Barça surrendered a late two-goal lead to end up with a 4-4 draw.

Barça went on to complete the comeback in stoppage time. Lamine Yamal’s shot from outside the penalty area took a heavy deflection off Atlético defender Reinildo on its way into the back of the net. Torres would subsequently add his second and Barça’s fourth deep into the additional minutes to move a step closer to reclaiming the league title they surrendered to Real last season.

After a slump in November and December, Barça are once again firing on all cylinders. The victory over Atlético was their seventh in a row in the league; over that span, Barça have flooded opposing nets with 23 goals over those seven matches while conceding just five. They are unquestionably the hottest team on the planet right now and the clear favorites to not only win La Liga, but the Champions League as well following Liverpool’s shocking elimination in the round of 16. Barça’s molten-hot attack has been powering them almost all season long. Among teams in major European leagues, only Bayern Munich are averaging more goals per match - and that in a relatively easier league as well.

Additionally, a large part of Barça’s success this season has to do with their depth. Barça are probably the deepest team on the planet and on multiple occasions throughout the season, they’ve had one or more players come off the bench to make major impacts. This was once again the case against Atlético with two of their four goals scored by Torres who entered the game to replace Dani Olmo about halfway through the second half. It’s this depth which has put Barça in a position in which winning the Treble for an unprecedented third time in club history isn’t even out of the question.

Of course, for the team to remain at this level, star power is a must - and against Atlético, Barça’s ace winger Lamine Yamal turned in another outstanding performance. There’s a realistic chance that at just 17, Yamal has a legitimate chance to become the youngest player to ever win the Ballon d’Or. The La Masia alumnus is not only already Barça’s best player; there’s a case to be made that he’s among the top five players on the planet right now. Not only is Yamal already “that guy”; it’s mind-boggling to think of the level at which he could be in five or 10 years’ time.

Though the final stretch of the season is yet to unfold, Barcelona have clearly put themselves in a very strong position. There’s every chance that when their 2024-25 campaign is in the books, there will be multiple new additions to Barça’s trophy cabinet.

The Weekly Take, Issue 352: The Overhaul That Was Needed Years Ago

The abolition of the prior rule prohibiting teams from the same country from being drawn against each other in the early knockout rounds of the Champions League opened the door for the round of 16 fixture between Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen to take place—the standout of the eight clashes which put a spot in the quarterfinals on the line.

The first of two legs was a one-sided affair which almost certainly sealed Bayern’s spot in the quarter-finals. When Harry Kane opened the scoring for Bayern in the ninth minute, it immediately became obvious that Leverkusen were in for a difficult night at the Allianz Arena. However, despite dominating every facet of the match, Bayern were somewhat surprisingly unable to further increase their lead before the half-time break.

This changed soon after the interval following Leverkusen goalkeeper Matěj Kovář’s fumble of a cross sent in by Bayern winger Kingsley Coman. Jamal Musiala was in just the right spot to take advantage - which he duly did to put Bayern 2-0 ahead. Eight minutes later, it got even tougher for Leverkusen when defender Nordi Mukiele was tossed after picking up a second yellow card.

Bayern put the finishing touch on the victory when Kane earned and converted a penalty in the 75th minute. The Bavarian club’s 3-0 win has now left Leverkusen with an almost-impossible task heading into the second leg at the BayArena; on only four occasions in Champions League history has a team overturned a three-goal deficit from the first leg to advance to the next round.

While there are many points to consider regarding this match, one of the most notable has to be about the circumstances which even made this match possible in the first place. Although UEFA have taken much criticism for a number of their decisions in recent years - often deservedly so at that - their tweaking of the Champions League format has proven to be a masterstroke.

By changing the format of the opening round to a Swiss bracket, the number of matches with “nothing on the line” has been greatly reduced, creating a considerably more competitive environment. It’s no longer a guarantee that powerhouse teams who are seen as potential title contenders can just roll up and stroll into the round of 16. They now have to earn it the hard way - something teams such as Paris Saint-Germain, Real Madrid, and most dramatically of all, Manchester City will readily attest to.

That being said, I would suggest two ways by which the Swiss bracket can be further improved. First off, as things are now, the top eight teams automatically qualify for the round of 16 while the teams finishing from ninth to 24th enter the play-ins for the remaining eight berths. This ought to be changed so that the top 12 automatically advance to the last 16 while the play-ins should involve the teams from 13th to 20th place.

Additionally, making the bracket a “true Swiss bracket” would dial up the excitement even more. In this way, each team would not know their next opponent until a re-draw after each matchday. All teams would be paired according to win-loss records up to that point. By accounting for what is known as “resistance”, the competitiveness of the opening round would be taken up another notch.

As for the decision to allow teams of the same country to play against each other as soon as the knockout rounds begin, UEFA got this one spot-on. There was absolutely no reason whatsoever for the initial rule to have been in place—it appears to have essentially been instituted arbitrarily. Over the years, this rule has prevented some truly epic matchups from happening for basically no reason at all.

Although the one-sidedness of Bayern’s victory over Leverkusen might not necessarily serve as the best advocate for the efficacy of rescinding the rule, there’s no question that it’s been a net positive for the tournament. With the removal of this restriction, the knockout rounds now serve as a truer test of who most deserves to make it to the final.

Despite the initial mass dismay which was the general reaction to the Champions League’s format changes, it’s now become evident that they ought to have been implemented years ago. Sometimes, a mass overhaul is indeed necessary - as has been shown this season.

The Weekly Take, Issue 351: A Mid-Season Transfer Window to Forget Led to This

In what was likely the most important Serie A match to date this season, Napoli hosted Inter Milan in a clash which would see its winner climb into first place in the league. Neither team entered the match in good form - Napoli were winless over their preceding four matches while Inter had collected just seven points over their last five. Thus, this match was not only one which would allow the team comin out on top to deal a major blow against their main title rival; it would also get their season back on track after a recent slump.

As things turned out, however, neither team was able to rise to the moment as Napoli and Inter played to a 1-1 draw. Federico Dimarco opened the scoring for Inter with a free kick in the 22nd minute shortly after Inter had their claim for a penalty rejected following a collision in the penalty area between Napoli midfielder Scott McTominay and Denzel Dumfries. It was almost as though Dimarco took out his frustrations about the penalty being denied on the ball, burying it in the far corner to put the Nerazzurri a goal ahead.

However, that would be about as good as it would get for Inter. For the vast majority of the match and especially after Inter scored the opening goal, Napoli clearly dominated proceedings and launched shot after shot at the Inter net. It was thus rather surprising that the score remained 1-0 in Inter's favour at half-time.

Napoli continued to pour on the pressure throughout the second half and eventually, their persistence did pay off. With just three minutes of regulation time remaining, substitute Philip Billing couldn't finish off Stanislav Lobotka's pass; his shot was saved by Inter goalkeeper Josep Martínez. However, the ball came back to Billing; on the second attempt, the Danish midfielder slotted it in to ensure that Napoli would not finish the match empty-handed.

Despite the late equalizer, Napoli will certainly be looking at this result as a blown opportunity. Their recent downturn in form is no coincidence - it's come as a direct result of the departure of superstar winger Khvicha Kvaratshkelia to Paris Saint-Germain in the mid-season transfer window. At the time of his departure for the Parc des Princes, "Kvara" was clearly Napoli's best player. Napoli's failure to adequately replace him dealt a significant blow to their hopes of reclaiming the league title that they last won two seasons ago.

In addition, there have to be questions brought up over Victor Osimhen. After a hot start, Osimhen's replacement at centre-forward Romelu Lukaku has seen his form tail off dramatically in recent months. Osimhen, on the other hand, while playing on loan in the far weaker Süper Lig with Galatasaray on loan from Napoli this season, has sent his parent club a clear message as to what they're missing after having left the club in controversial circumstances. However, given everything that happened which led to the Nigerian being set on loan to Galatasaray, it's not partiularly likely that Osimhen will end up returning to Campania - something Napoli could deeply regret should they fail to win the league this season.

Going back to the Kvaratshkelia transfer to PSG, Napoli should have done more with the windfall they received from his departure. PSG signed the Georgian for a transfer fee of €70 million - a total which they could easily have put towards signing multiple new players. This would've represented an opportunity for Napoli to get the jump on Inter by bringing in one or more key players to Stadio Diego Armando Maradona; however, it was an opportunity that Napoli completely missed - and that might just cost them the league title.

Of course, a sense of perspective must still be kept. For all of this, Napoli are still just one point behind Inter in the race for the Scudetto. They're still coached by one of the best today in Antonio Conte; in addition, the signings from their highly fruitful off-season transfer window have picked up many key points for Napoli so far.

However, after having lost their Serie A lead to Inter during their ongoing winless streak, Napoli are no longer in the driver's seat as far as the Scudetto chase is concerned - and it's a direct result of everything that happened in the January transfer window.

The Weekly Take, Issue 350: Tactical Thoughts

This being another “milestone” post, I’ve decided to go with a more personal approach to this post - it’ll include some of my thoughts on the current state of the football “metagame” that some of you might disagree with - but which I nonetheless hold firmly to as of right now.

Without further ado:

The Most Important Position in the Game Is Defensive Midfielder

Defensive midfielder is arguably the most underappreciated position in any team sport. While centre-forwards, wingers, number 10s, and attacking midfielders always get the bulk of the spotlight, at the moment the most important position of all is the least stereotypically “glamorous” one. A number 6 who’s at the very least serviceable is a necessity for any team with genuine hopes of challenging for a Champions League title.

In the current meta, the defensive midfielder no longer serves as “just the first line of defense”. Modern defensive midfielders are also often the players who start the transition from defense to attack - though the “regista” archetype of defensive midfielder in the style of players like Fernando Redondo has largely fallen out of favour. The present-day defensive midfielder arguably requires a more diverse skillset than does any other position.

The importance of the position has been shown at its most striking this season via Manchester City’s struggles. Having lost reigning Ballon d’Or winner Rodri to a torn ACL early in the season, the Citizens have looked a shadow of the team which has dominated the Premier League and been a serious Champions League contender in recent years. If this had been any other player, City would not have struggled like this - their entire strategy can be said to be built around Rodri. Looking at other elite teams, though none are quite on Rodri’s level, the likes of Real Madrid’s Aurélien Tchouaméni, Liverpool’s Ryan Gravenberch, and Bayern Munich’s Joshua Kimmich equally have indispensable roles for their respective teams. Once again, replace them with a player not close to their level and their teams would implode.

4-4-2 Is (Usually) Not It

There’s a very specific type of football fan who pines for the “good old days” of the 4-4-2 formation. In reality, however, there’s a very good reason why almost no one runs 4-4-2 anymore.

A flat midfield four is often incredibly rigid and inflexible. It often doesn’t leave much room for a “plan B” if the opponent finds a way to shut down the team’s general strategy. In addition, although the idea of dual centre-forwards might seem tempting on the surface to those looking for additional offensive firepower, this comes at the cost of playmaking. A classic 4-4-2 formation includes no number 10s - the position for which playmaking is the primary duty (more on this shortly). For that reason, a team that runs a 4-4-2 is almost always forced to go with a “number 10 by committee” approach - something which is often unlikely to work except in specific circumstances.

Right now, 4-4-2 is best used as a “pocket strat” against specific teams which it counters - and even then it should still be modified from the standard 4-4-2 such as in Manchester United’s 4-4-2 with dual false 9s in their FA Cup final upset victory over City.

Number 10s: “Adapt or Die”

Though “adapt or die” may be a cliché, it’s one which perfectly fits number 10s today. Old-school number 10s have been all but phased out of the meta. Every number 10 who is to remain at the top today must also be at least reasonably capable at either winger, attacking midfielder, or false 9.

In addition, the days of the “number 10 main” are looking increasingly numbered; most players who start at 10 these days are 8/10s rather than 10/8s. This is understandable when one considers the fact that it’s much easier for a young attacking midfielder to learn playmaking skills than it is for a young number 10 to learn box-to-box skills.

It can even be said that several number 10s who were once considered highly promising prospects but never quite lived up to the hype such as Ganso, Christian Pulisic, and Mario Götze were “born in the wrong era”: had they been in their prime in the 1990s or 2000s, they’d have gone on to be superstars; however, their playstyle was quite simply a poor fit for the modern football meta.

The Weekly Take, Issue 349: Does It Get Worse? Oh Yes, It Does

At the beginning of the season, anyone who would’ve said that Manchester City would find themselves close to elimination from the Champions League before the round of 16 while also being all the way back in fifth place in the Premier League, 15 points behind league leaders Liverpool, would have been roundly mocked - and understandably so. After all, the Citizens had not only won the last four domestic league titles in a row; they’d also made it to at least the quarterfinals of the last seven editions of the Champions League.

However, as has clearly been seen in what’s been City’s worst season in a very long time, the blue half of Manchester hit another low with a 3-2 home loss in the first leg of their Champions League round of 24 fixture against Real Madrid.

The match started well for City. In the 19th minute, Erling Haaland finished off a well-constructed sequence in which he’d already played a part in creating after getting on the end of a Jack Grealish pass via an additional touch from Joško Gvardiol who was credited with the assist. Following the goal, Real started pushing much harder and although their efforts went unrewarded for the rest of the first half, Kylian Mbappé scored with an unconventional volley in the 60th minute.

With a little over 10 minutes of regulation time left, Real midfielder Dani Ceballos who’d earlier set up Mbappé’s goal fouled Phil Foden in the penalty area, allowing Haaland to step forward and convert the penalty to put City 2-1 ahead. However, as they’ve done so many times before, Real found a way to gut out the win. Six minutes after Haaland’s penalty, Brahim Díaz scored against his former club - a follow-up attempt after Ederson saved a shot from fellow Brazilian Vinícius Júnior before Jude Bellingham put the ball into an empty net in stoppage time to clinch the win for Real and leave City with a lot to do in the second leg in the Spanish capital if they’re to avoid missing out on the last 16 for the first time since the 2012-13 season.

A lot has already been written about City’s remarkable decline this season. However, the whole thing hinges on one man and one particular moment.

On 22 September 2024, City and Arsenal played out a 2-2 draw in the Premier League. The most important moment of the match - in fact, arguably the entire season - occurred when City’s superstar defensive midfielder Rodri tore his ACL, ruling him out for the rest of the season. Almost immediately, City’s level of play plummeted and has stayed down since.

It comes down to this: for all the money they’ve spent and all the talent in their squad, City’s entire strategy ultimately revolved around Rodri prior to the Spaniard’s injury; he was the piece that made it all work. It’s often mentioned that City’s win rate with Rodri is higher than that without him by a massive margin; they don’t seem to have a backup plan sans Rodri.

This brings us to Pep Guardiola who has coached City since 2016. There’s no question that this is the toughest test of his illustrious coaching career thus far - and remarkably, despite the fact that Guardiola is a legitimate GOAT candidate, it’s a test that Guardiola is failing so far. On many occasions this season, the Catalan has appeared utterly bereft of ideas. To make matters worse, City haven’t adjusted at all and have instead looked worse and worse with each passing week - and for that, Guardiola has to receive much blame.

Finally, City’s transfer window strategy has to be scrutinized. Time and again, City haven’t brought in players with skillsets who would’ve been able to be plugged into the squad fairly easily in Rodri’s absence. As such, City’s squad is now rather unbalanced especially in midfield - and this has been a major reason why the loss of one player all but sank them.

Even if Manchester City somehow turn it around in the second leg and advance to the round of 16, based on everything we’ve seen from them this season their odds of winning the Champions League for the second time in three seasons are extremely unlikely. The way things seem right now, there seems to be no end to their ongoing woes in sight.

The Weekly Take, Issue 348: Indicative of Greater Struggles or Rounding Into Form Just in Time?

Before their blockbuster Champions League clash against Manchester City, Real Madrid first had to get through the Madrid derby in the league. This was an especially high-stakes derby because cross-town rivals Atlético Madrid trailed Real by just one point in the league. The winner of the match would leave the Santiago Bernabéu top of the league and deal a severe blow to their rivals’ title chances.

As things turned out, though, both teams finished as they started; the match ended in a 1-1 draw. After a little over a half-hour was played, French midfielder Aurélien Tchouaméni surrendered Real’s first penalty of the season after fouling Atlético’s Samuel Lino who’d been attempting to finish off a cross played in by Javi Galán. Julián Alvarez then stepped forward to convert the penalty.

Atlético carried their lead into the half-time break; however, it didn’t take Real much time after the interval to score the equalizing goal. After Jude Bellingham’s initial shot was blocked, Kylian Mbappé was right in position to finish off the follow-up attempt. Following this, Real went on to firmly control the match throughout the second half but, as so many have found over the years, Diego Simeone’s Atlético team are probably the most difficult team to chip away at; their frequent attacks on the Atlético net following Mbappé’s goal yielded nothing further.

Although Real might currently be in first place in La Liga, that doesn’t tell the whole story. This has certainly been a more difficult campaign for Real than what they’d likely have envisioned when the season began. Real started their league season slowly and only recently took the lead for the first time this season; for most of it they’d been playing catch-up to Atlético and Barcelona. Real’s early-season struggles were punctuated by a 4-0 loss to Barça in El Clásico and arguably encapsulated by Mbappé’s slump which ended up costing them several wins.

However, this doesn’t even compare to what they’ve been through in the league phase of the Champions League. After losing three of four matches, Real were dangerously close to not even making it to the round of 24; they were in 24th place after five matchdays before winning their last three to set up a highly anticipated match against City for a spot in the last 16.

While it’s true that this season hasn’t even been close to peak Real, that may be all that’s needed to win them the league title for the fourth time in the last six seasons. Real are currently on pace to finish the season with 83 points in the league. The last time a total that low would’ve won La Liga was almost two decades ago in the 2006-07 season. That being said, due to Atlético’s and Barça’s own inconsistent form, Real have only needed to be “just better than” the two other title contenders.

Needless to say, performances on this level won’t cut it if Real are to make a genuine run at defending their Champions League title. Although their next opponents have had obvious struggles of their own this season to the point at which most are expecting Real to come out on top against City, it almost certainly won’t be enough against the gauntlet of opponents to come after.

With that in mind, is it possible that Real have been starting to turn the corner and are peaking at just the right time? Heading into the derby, Real had won four of their last five in the league to move into first place; as mentioned earlier, they also finished the league phase of the Champions League with three wins in a row. So many times over the years we’ve seen Real ramp it up and come into form down the final stretch of the season. This could easily be the case once again.

It’s astonishing to think that even in a “down year”, Real Madrid could conceivably end up winning both La Liga and the Champions League. That said, such an outcome isn’t likely to take place with more performances like theirs against Atlético in the derby. However, by now everyone knows better than to dismiss Real way too early - after all, there’s a reason they’re the winningest football club of all time.

The Weekly Take, Issue 347: All That xG for Nothing

The latest edition of the Derby della Madonnina was a high-stakes encounter for both Milan clubs - but for different reasons. For AC Milan, this match represented an opportunity to close the gap to Juventus who are currently in fourth place in Serie A and thus occupying the last Champions League qualification berth. As for Inter Milan, a win would move them one point behind league leaders Napoli after having played one match less.

The derby ended up in a 1-1 draw - a result which left neither club satisfied. Tijjani Reijnders opened the scoring for Milan shortly before the end of the first half - a goal which came largely against the run of play. Throughout the second half, Inter continued to apply the pressure but couldn’t finish off the many goalscoring opportunities they created. Not only that - within a second-half span of just under 25 minutes, Inter struck the post thrice - once each via Yann Bisseck, Marcus Thuram, and Denzel Dumfries. Even before that, Inter had three goals waved off for offside.

It wasn’t until stoppage time when the Nerazzurri finally made their breakthrough. Substitute Bisseck sent in a cross towards the far post which Polish defender Nicola Zalewski, who had himself come off the bench as well, took on the chest in the direction of Stefan de Vrij who put it in the net from close range.

Despite eventually scoring the equalizer, Inter would certainly have been frustrated with the match’s outcome to say the least. Inter were in almost total control of the match right from opening kick-off - to have three goals ruled out for offside, then to hit the post three times is almost unheard of. Going beyond even that, Inter missed a massive opportunity to deal a significant blow to Napoli in the title race. Earlier in the day, Napoli had only managed a 1-1 draw against Roma in the Derby del Sole after Spanish full-back Angeliño scored Roma’s equalizer in stoppage time.

No team has won the Scudetto in consecutive seasons since Juve’s unprecedented run of nine league titles in a row from the 2011-12 to 2019-20 seasons; Inter themselves haven’t done it since they won five straight from 2005-06 to 2009-10. The last of those five league titles was part of their legendary Treble-winning season.

Those who have been paying close attention to Inter’s season thus far will have picked up on the fact that for a team of their calibre, they tend to get caught offside relatively frequently. This has been a major issue throughout the season and has cost them valuable points over the course of the season - including in this match against their cross-town arch-rivals. It’s an issue which even this late into the season, Inter will have to somehow resolve if they’re to seriously push Napoli and go back-to-back.

Inter didn’t sign any new players in the recently concluded mid-season transfer window. If Inter end up failing to defend their Serie A title, it’s entirely conceivable that they’ll look back on that and rue a missed opportunity. This is especially the case because during that same transfer window, Napoli sold Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, their best player, to PSG for a transfer fee of €70 million while not replacing him with anyone of note. This should have been a chance for Inter to get a leg up on their title rivals; instead, they might very well have let the chance pass them by.

That being said, there’s an obvious positive that Inter can take from this match; it’s one which has equally applied to many of their matches this season and is a big reason why they’re even in this position to begin with. Inter clearly excel at turning possession and pressure into xG; their derby xG was almost two and a half times Milan’s. It’s why they comfortably lead the league in goals scored; usually, all those high-quality chances do translate into goals. Matches like this one can be regarded as something of an outlier.

Though Inter Milan’s derby draw isn’t that severe of a blow to their title hopes on the surface, it could end up being a turning point as they not only failed to beat their arch-nemesis; Inter let Napoli off the hook as well. As the  home stretch beckons, this could have turned out to be a crucial two points dropped.

The Weekly Take, Issue 346: "El Cholo" Does It Again

Having surrendered first place in La Liga to cross-town rivals Real Madrid after losing 1-0 against Leganes, Atlético Madrid entered their Champions League match against Bayer Leverkusen not only seeking to bounce back, but also to tighten their grip on their position in the top 8 and move a step closer to automatically qualifying for the tournament’s round of 16.

Atlético did indeed pick up the win in the penultimate matchday of the tournament’s league phase, putting them in fifth place with just an away match against the already eliminated Red Bull Salzburg remaining. However, the match didn’t exactly get off to the smoothest of starts for Atlético. Pablo Barrios was sent off in the 25th minute after a harsh tackle on Nordi Mukiele. Barrios had initially been shown a yellow card; however, a subsequent VAR check revealed that the foul was more severe than what the officials had initially assumed.

Leverkusen would go on to take advantage of having an extra player on the field. In first-half stoppage time, Mukiele sent in a cross which was finished off by a Piero Hincapié header to put the German club ahead going into the interval. Atlético would then score the equalizing goal less than seven minutes after the break via Julián Alvarez before Leverkusen themselves would be reduced to 10 men. In the 76th minute, Hincapié picked up his second yellow card after fouling Giuliano Simeone on the edge of the penalty area.

Atlético’s winning goal came in the last minute of regulation time. Substitute Ángel Correa set up Alvarez who then rounded Leverkusen goalkeeper Matěj Kovář before putting the ball into the empty net to finish off the 2-1 victory. It was Atlético’s fourth consecutive Champions League win and put them in a very strong position with just one matchday of the league phase left.

It has often been said that more than any other top team in European football today, Atlético embody their head coach’s tactical philosophy. This was on full display against Leverkusen as in front of a passionate home crowd, Diego Simeone had Atlético playing as the fullest expression of his inimitable (and somewhat divisive) strategic approach. Atlético had just 30% of the possession and took only five shots throughout the match; they also completed well under a third of all the completed passes played by either team.

Admittedly, Atlético once again carried out their share of the “dark arts” - but this has, somewhat controversially, always been a core tenet of this Atlético team under "El Cholo". Despite opposing teams and fans railing against it every now and again, Simeone has always been unapologetic about it. Time and again over the years, Atlético have essentially psyched out and harassed their opponents into a loss - and this was, in several ways, what again happened in the match against Leverkusen.

Ever since taking over at Atlético in 2011, Simeone has taken the club to its most successful era ever and from day one has instilled a tactical setup involving deep defending and counter-attacking play - almost the exact opposite of the free-flowing, visually appealing football advocated by many other coaches. To some neutrals, this has made Atlético almost unwatchable; however, the results speak for themselves and this was once again the case against Leverkusen as Simeone’s opposite number Xabi Alonso, for all that he’s already achieved in his short yet impressive coaching career, had absolutely no answer for the Argentine.

To prevail over Simeone’s Atlético team, it’s not enough to merely have the personnel and the tactics. This is a team which deliberately sets out to get into opponents’ heads - and against the unprepared, this often works. While certainly frustrating to play against and for many, to watch as well, there’s no question that it clearly works.

Whatever one may think of him, Diego Simeone again proved why he’s one of the greatest coaches of the modern era. Now in his 14th season at the Metropolitano, Simeone has achieved a level of success at Atlético Madrid that very few could ever have - and the reality is this: if he had never come in with the approach that he always has, Atlético would never have emerged as the clear third-biggest club in Spain, only behind Real and Barcelona.

The Weekly Take, Issue 345: A Missed Opportunity - Perhaps a Definitive One

 AC Milan’s away match against Juventus represented an opportunity for the Rossoneri to claw back some of their deficit to fourth place in the race for the last Champions League spot from Serie A; it also gave Milan a chance to deal a blow to their opponents’ chance of making the top four and thus qualifying for next season’s Champions League.

Instead, Milan succumbed to a 2-0 loss against the Bianconeri. Both of Juve’s goals came within a five-minute span in the second half. In the 59th minute, Nico González set up Belgian winger Samuel Mbangula whose shot bounced off the foot of Milan full-back Emerson on its way into the back of the net. Not long after that, Milan midfielder Youssouf Fofana lost possession in midfield, granting Khéphren Thuram to put substitute Timothy Weah through on goal with just Fikayo Tomori to beat - and the American did just that before putting his shot into the bottom corner and clinch the win for Juve.

After having fired previous head coach Paulo Fonseca on December 29 and hiring Sérgio Conceição the next day, many might have expected the usual upturn in form that usually comes with a new coaching hire. This, however, has so far not even been close to what has happened. Despite winning the Supercoppa Italiana - which isn’t even a major title - Conceição’s coaching debut in Serie A after having been at the helm of Porto for seven seasons has been off to a slow start.

Though it’s still very early in his current stint at the San Siro, early signs seem to show that Conceição still doesn’t quite “get it”. The main issue so far has most likely been his squad rotation. While it might be true that Conceição might not have been aware of this quite yet, the fact remains that the recent form decline of players such as Emerson and Fofana can likely be tied to fatigue. Part of Fonseca’s downfall was how he burned out some of Milan’s players by not rotating the squad as regularly as he should have; while there’s still time for Conceição to figure this out, it’s needless to say that this isn’t how things ought to have started for him.

With the January transfer window ending soon, it’s imperative that Milan do something about their squad depth - especially in midfield and up front. As of right now, Milan quite simply don’t have the depth of personnel at the level needed to make a legitimate top-four push. The match against Juve made this fact obvious as all four of Milan’s substitutes were all but completely ineffective, contributing essentially nothing of note.

Beyond that, Milan have to seriously start considering the futures of players such as Fofana, Yunus Musah, Ismaël Bennacer, and Tammy Abraham who are unlikely to be worth keeping around for the long term. It’s become increasingly obvious that none of them are of the calibre needed of squad regulars if Milan are to seriously contend for a Champions League berth next season. Milan have been linked with players such as Saba Goglichidze, Stephen Eustaquio, Marcus Rashford, and Samuele Ricci - certainly not names which move the needle in any notable way. Unless Milan can somehow pull off a significant signing out of seemingly nowhere before the transfer window ends, climbing into the top four by season’s end seems unlikely.

Among the players mentioned, Abraham deserves particular scrutiny. Against Juve, Milan were largely devoid of any output up front, managing just three shots on target. As the starting centre-forward stepping in for the injured Álvaro Morata, Abraham did not even attempt a single shot and was nothing more than a bystander for almost the whole match. The Englishman has become a mere shell of the player who had a breakout season at Roma just three years ago and who appeared to be set for a solid run of at least five to six years as a high-level striker. At this point, Abraham has become a liability and might not even have what it takes to even be a regular substitute.

AC Milan’s window to salvage their season is starting to close - and if they do end up missing out on the Champions League for the first time since, one has to wonder if Conceição will still be in the dugout when next season starts.

The Weekly Take, Issue 344: The Rut Deepens

Any thoughts that Borussia Dortmund might return from the Bundesliga’s mid-season break a completely changed team from the one seen before it - a team which hadn’t shown even the slightest bit of consistency and stability and had thus fallen behind in the chase for a top-four spot and a berth in next season’s Champions League - were swiftly put to rest following their match against Bayer Leverkusen.

Reigning Bundesliga champions Leverkusen raced out to an early 2-0 lead with Nathan Tella and Patrik Schick getting their names on the scoresheet within the first eight minutes of the match. Shortly after, Dortmund would halve the deficit when Jamie Gittens took advantage of Robert Andrich’s misplayed clearance to put it in from close range. Seven minutes later, Schick would score his second, ensuring that Leverkusen’s two-goal lead would be restored heading into half-time.

Dortmund were handed a late lifeline when in the 79th minute, Edmond Tapsoba fouled Julien Duranville in the box. Serhou Guirassy stepped forward to convert the penalty; however, that would be as close as Dortmund would come. With this latest loss, Die Schwarzgelbe have now won just one of their last five league matches and including this one, none of their last three at home.

To be fair to Dortmund, this was always going to be a difficult encounter following the personnel issues they’d experienced. Six players missed the match for various reasons including three of Dortmund’s usual starting back four. That being said, even most of Dortmund’s regular starters certainly looked out of sorts throughout the first half and only began to come to life after the break with players such as Maximilian Beier, Felix Nmecha, and Gregor Kobel having underwhelming showings at Signal Iduna Park. Notably, backup right-back Yan Couto was arguably Dortmund’s best player against Leverkusen - a clear indictment on the rest of the squad’s level of play not just in this match, but in general over the course of the season.

Another point that has to be addressed concerns Gittens. The Englishman is one of world football’s rising stars and at just 20, appears to have sky-high potential. He was one of the relatively few Dortmund players to have a solid performance against Leverkusen and is very possibly already Dortmund’s best player. Gittens’ rise makes it even more crucial for Dortmund to qualify for next season’s Champions League - should they fail to do so, there’s a very real possibility that the Berkshire-born winger will leave the club in the coming off-season. Gittens has already been linked with a move to several major clubs including, much to the dismay of Dortmund’s fanbase, arch-rivals Bayern Munich. That would unquestionably be a nightmare scenario for Dortmund; however, it’s one which might actually be realistic at this point.

Once again, the elephant in the room has to be addressed as well: for how long will Dortmund persist with Nuri Şahin in the dugout? Ever since accepting the position as Dortmund’s head coach this past off-season, the Turk has shown almost nothing but sheer incompetence. Once again, he fumbled the tactical setup and substitutions; with just about anyone else coaching, this could easily have been a winnable game.

At this point, it’s obvious that Dortmund’s ownership and front office are only keeping Şahin around for sentimental reasons - as a player, he was a club icon who spent ten and a half seasons at Dortmund, making 223 league appearances for the club. However, the fans in general ran out of patience months ago - it’s obvious by now that the longer Şahin stays in the position, the worse things will get for Dortmund. It’s long past time for the club to rip off the bandage, fire Şahin, and reset.

This isn’t yet an unsalvageable season for Borussia Dortmund, though. They still do have a realistic chance of making the top four in the league; they could also finish in the top eight of the league phase of the Champions League, allowing them to go straight into the round of 16. However, the way this season has gone so far, it isn’t particularly likely that either - let alone both - will end up happening. There can be no question that right now, Dortmund are headed in the wrong direction.

The Weekly Take, Issue 343: Alexander-Arnold the Not-so-great

Entering their match against arch-rivals Manchester United, Premier League leaders Liverpool were primed to take all three points and further extend their massive lead. The Reds had seen all their closest challengers drop cheap points in recent matchday while Liverpool themselves had been picking up win after win, taking steps towards reclaiming the league title they last won in the 2019-20 season. Additionally, United arrived at Anfield having lost their last three league matches and had slid all the way down to 14th place. This appeared to be a golden opportunity for Liverpool not only to tighten their stranglehold over what seemed to be a league title that was all but theirs, but also rub it in United’s faces while doing so.

This, however, turned out not to be so as Liverpool only managed a 2-2 draw against the Red Devils. Shortly after half-time, Lisandro Martínez broke forward and received a pass from Bruno Fernandes before firing it in off the underside of the crossbar to put United a goal ahead; however, Cody Gakpo scored Liverpool’s equalizer just seven minutes later. Liverpool would later take a 2-1 lead after Mohamed Salah scored a penalty after Matthijs de Ligt’s handball. Then, in the 80th minute, Amad Diallo - as he did against Manchester City - came up huge for United down the stretch, netting United’s second goal and ensuring that they’d leave Merseyside with a share of the points.

Almost immediately after the match, one Liverpool player was understandably singled out for criticism: Trent Alexander-Arnold. The English right-back had a dismal showing against United and was largely unable to deal with whatever United threw at him. Completely outplayed by his opposing counterparts Bruno Fernandes and Diogo Dalot, Alexander-Arnold lost all five of his one-on-one duels and thus handed United a huge amount of space from which viable goalscoring chances could’ve been created.

On top of that, Alexander-Arnold’s positional play was an absolute disaster. On multiple occasions throughout the match, Alexander-Arnold allowed United to attack the penalty area from out wide even if he wasn’t dribbled past by a United player. His below-par situational awareness and frequent misreads capped off a performance to forget.

There can be almost no question as to why Alexander-Arnold played so poorly against United: it almost certainly has to do with the recent speculation linking Alexander-Arnold to Real Madrid. Real have made it clear that they’re highly interested in landing the Merseysider either in the ongoing January transfer window or in the off-season. As of right now, Alexander-Arnold commands an expected transfer value of around €75 million - a figure well within Real’s means.

This then begs the question: has Alexander-Arnold mentally checked out? Does he himself actually want to leave Liverpool for the Santiago Bernabéu? If such is the case, that would go a long way towards explaining his showing against United. If a recent report in Marca were to be believed, Alexander-Arnold might not only be actively seeking a move to the Spanish capital but might even have already informed Liverpool of such. The report went on to claim that the chances of Alexander-Arnold renewing his contract at his hometown club where he’s spent all of his nine-season career to date are slim to none.

A mid-season departure might just end up derailing Liverpool’s season and shrinking their lead on top of the Premier League - perhaps even causing them to fall from first place. In addition to the obvious personnel hole which the departure of a player on the level of Alexander-Arnold would leave behind, the nature of his potential departure and all the buzz around it can only be highly disruptive to Liverpool’s season.

Up until now, it’s been plain sailing all season long for Arne Slot’s team. This is the first major adversity they’ve faced - and how they deal with this will not only determine if they have what it takes to stay the course domestically and claim the league title, but also perhaps if they are to make a serious push for the Champions League title as well.

If this is the end for Trent Alexander-Arnold at Liverpool, it’s been an absolutely tremendous nine years with the Reds; he will no doubt leave as a club icon. However, if his departure is indeed impending, the question has to be raised - has he already mailed it in, or will he actually take the rest of the season seriously?