The Weekly Take, Issue 289: The Revival Nobody Saw Coming

The latest edition of the Derby del Sole had an additional layer of importance with both AS Roma and Napoli in contention for the top four and berths in next season's revamped Champions League. Roma emerged with a crucial 2-0 victory. Substitute Lorenzo Pellegrini opened the scoring in the 76th minute. In the sixth minute of stoppage time, Romelu Lukaku scored his eighth league goal of the season to secure all three points for the Giallorossi.

Despite having 60% of the possession, Napoli were never in control of the match, attempting just seven shots to Roma's 17 and seldom putting together a productive stretch of play. In addition, Napoli finished the match with just nine men following red cards received by Matteo Politano and Victor Osimhen.

If Roma were to make it to next season's Champions League, it would be their first time doing so in six years. While Roma have seen the likes of Bryan Cristante, Leonardo Spinazzola, Paulo Dybala, and Diego Llorente making key contributions, there's another name there which has to be noted: that of Lukaku.

After a dismal 2021-22 season at Chelsea in which his form completely fell off the cliff from the prior season, Lukaku was loaned back to Inter Milan where he had been so dominant before. However, this second go-around at the San Siro would see the Belgian centre-forward not even come close to the levels which he reached in his previous two-year stint at Inter. As a result, when Lukaku returned to Stamford Bridge at the beginning of this season, he was unsurprisingly loaned out again - this time to Roma.

Lukaku's loan stint at Roma almost didn't even happen at all. Inter attempted to sign Lukaku permanently, but this never materialized. Rumours about a move to Juventus, Paris Saint-Germain, and even Saudi Arabia had circulated before the deal with Roma was struck. Roma's loan acquisition of Lukaku was largely facilitated by Lukaku's interest in once again working with José Mourinho, who had coached him at Manchester United between 2016 and 2018. Despite this, many were skeptical of the move.

In a twist that very few could have seen coming, Lukaku is in his best form since leaving Inter for the first time back in the 2021 off-season. With 13 goals in all competitions as the season approaches its halfway point, Lukaku has spearheaded a Roma attack that - contrary to the stereotypical Mourinho team - has been heavy on goals with 30 in the league thus far, ranking Roma third behind Inter and AC Milan in this statistic.

Probably the main factor behind Lukaku's resurgence is that, at least right now, Roma are a team that suit a centre-forward like him. Full of capable playmakers like Dybala, Leandro Paredes, and Cristante, this Roma team is set up to make Lukaku able to function as the classic target man up front - the role in which he has largely thrived throughout his career.

While a seemingly minor point, Lukaku's interest in working with Mourinho should also be pointed out. During his time at United, Lukaku's best stretch of form coincided with Mourinho's tenure there. After Mourinho was fired in December 2018, Lukaku's form dipped dramatically, ultimately leading to his exit in the 2019 off-season. Although this is certainly not the main source of Lukaku's revival, it cannot be overlooked as a potential contributing factor.

That being said, the one question which has plagued Lukaku for much of his career continues to do so: can he turn it up when the pressure is at its highest? Time and time again we have seen Lukaku come up short whenever his team has most needed a big performance from him. The prime examples of this failure to deliver in the clutch were his own goal to lose the 2020 Europa League final for Inter and his shambolic display in Inter's 2023 Champions League final loss to Manchester City. Until he actually does produce in high-stakes matches, there will always be warranted skepticism around him.

Romelu Lukaku has had quite the career - one with a myriad of ups and downs, twists and turns, and wild swings in form. After a long spell in the footballing doldrums, he seems to be on the way back - but will it last? With how unpredictable his play, especially in recent years, has been, anyone who would make a definitive comment on that is daring indeed.

The Weekly Take, Issue 288: Falling Behind with No Plan

Manchester United's troubled season has just hit a new low. The Red Devils' 1-0 loss to Bayern Munich in the last group-stage matchday of this season's Champions League ensured that United would not only be knocked out of the tournament before the last 16, but would also do so in last place in Group A and thus even missed entry into the Europa League.

Heading into the match, some might have expected Bayern to have fielded more backups than they ordinarily would have as they had already clinched first place in the group. However, this was not the case; Bayern made just one change from the starting 11 that were shockingly destroyed 5-1 by Eintracht Frankfurt in their Bundesliga match over the weekend. Thomas Tuchel's decision against making widespread changes paid off, with Kingsley Coman scoring the only goal of the match shortly after the half-time break.

For United, this was a match which as so often has been the case this season, yielded more questions than answers. While not quite in full-blown crisis mode at the moment, United's future is as murky as it has ever been - and one of the players who has been among the chief culprits served up yet another dud in a season full of them.

Rasmus Højlund was completely out of his depth up front. The Danish striker had by far the worst performance of everyone to step onto the field at Old Trafford. Having been signed for the astonishingly high transfer fee of €75 million - one which even at the time was widely regarded as an overpay by a large margin - Højlund has not even come close to living up to his price tag. To say that Højlund has been dismal this season would be unjust - unjustly generous to Højlund, that is. At this point, the only thing that would likely keep Højlund in the red half of Manchester next season is sunk-cost fallacy.

The controversy surrounding Jadon Sancho has also destabilized the team. Once heralded as one of the most promising young talents in world football, Sancho has since revealed himself to be a head case with more red flags than there are literal ones during his club's home matches. While his ensuing fallout with head coach Erik ten Hag has resulted in the London-born winger's exclusion from even being considered for selection, it's obvious that the many incidents that have led up to this point have thrown off the atmosphere within the team and served as an unwelcome distraction.

While it may be true that United have been dealing with injuries suffered by multiple key players, their lack of depth has clearly been exposed. At the moment, ten Hag is clearly unsure over who to play in the absence of certain regular starters - and understandably so. United have to be one of the clubs which have the largest skill gaps between starters and backups. This is something which could easily have been addressed in the off-season if not for the club's exceptionally strange decisions to shell out such huge amounts to land Højlund and Mason Mount.

The issue for United right now is that there doesn't seem to be a single change which would get them out of this rut. Sell Højlund? Fire ten Hag? Bring in backups in January? Sign a new starting winger? Maybe even a tactical overhaul? While any of those options would be understandable, all would serve as no more than a quick fix. Even if the Glazers do finally choose to sell the club, United's would-be new owner would have quite the puzzle to solve - there would be no guarantee that a solution would be on the horizon even then.

Over the last few seasons, again and again Manchester United have seemed so close to finally taking steps forward and at least becoming consistently competitive once again - only to slip backwards before too long. There just doesn't seem to be an actionable plan to give them that push which re-establishes them as top-four Premier League staples; they have finished there in consecutive seasons just once in the past decade. United clearly understand that there is a major problem; however, they can't even define it, much less plan to solve it - and that's what has been causing so many problems there in recent years.

The Weekly Take, Issue 287: "Lightning in a Bottle" Has Fizzled Out

The 2022-23 season was one which everyone associated with Napoli will never forget. Snapping a 33-year Serie A title drought, Gli Azzurri claimed the Scudetto in utterly dominant fashion. The Campanian club won the league by a staggering 16-point margin over Lazio, while players such as Khvicha Kvaratshkelia, Kim Min-jae, Frank Anguissa, and most notably of all, league top scorer and player of the year Victor Osimhen all had breakout seasons, putting them firmly in the spotlight heading into the off-season.

Napoli's dismal Serie A campaign continued after succumbing to a 1-0 away loss against arch-rivals Juventus. It was Napoli's third loss in their last four league matches. What made this loss even more of an indictment on Napoli's season thus far is the fact that they had 67% of the possession and dictated the flow of the match almost from opening kick-off. Despite this, they somehow only managed to muster one shot on target and ultimately left with nothing following Federico Gatti's 51st-minute goal.

Though it's impossible to pinpoint one singular factor as the main cause underpinning Napoli's struggles this season, there have been several which have taken a cumulative toll on the club. One of them has to be the internal instability caused over Osimhen's future at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. Following Osimhen's spectacular 2022-23 season, the Nigerian striker was subsequently linked with moves to clubs like Arsenal, Chelsea, Paris-Saint Germain, and Liverpool, but none ended up materializing. With no guarantee that Osimhen would remain at the club in 2023-24, targeting key signings over the off-season was made much more difficult.

This in turn leads to the point about the players they did sign. Napoli spent over €100 million to add seven players to their roster, of which two were immediately loaned out. Despite this large expenditure, however, except for Giacomo Raspadori, none of their signings have thus far moved the needle in any notable way. To add to this, Bayern Munich signed centre-back Kim for €50 million; he has since become a mainstay of the starting 11 at the Allianz Arena. Napoli, on the other hand, attempted to shore up the defense with the addition of Natan from Red Bull Bragantino; he has largely underwhelmed during his first few months at Napoli.

Napoli's success last season could also have contributed to their current struggles in two ways. It could be that they became somewhat complacent following one of the most dominant league title victories in recent memory. Napoli's decline this season could also be the result of struggling under the weight of their newfound expectations - perhaps finding it difficult to be the chased instead of the chaser for the first time.

This brings up another question: what's the plan for Napoli moving forward? While there have been transfer rumours surrounding the possibility of players such as Ferdi Kadıoğlu, Quinten Timber, and Arnau Martínez signing for Napoli in January, none are likely to be the catalyst that swings the race for a top-four spot and a Champions League berth in Napoli's favour. That being said, there is one player with whom Napoli have been linked who could play a key role should they land him: 20-year-old centre-back Giorgio Scalvini. However, Napoli would likely have to fend off interest from clubs such as Bayern Munich, Manchester United, and Manchester City to land one of Serie A's most promising young prospects.

It may also be time for Napoli to reconsider who the player they should build around really is. It might very well be the case that Osimhen turns out to be just one of many "one-season wonders" - and that Kvaratshkelia is the true club cornerstone for the future. At just 22, the Georgian winger's ceiling is more than a match for that of just about anyone not named Bellingham, Haaland, or Mbappé. Unlike Osimhen - and indeed, almost all of his teammates - Kvaratshkelia has actually improved instead of regressing this season, becoming a rare bright spot in a difficult campaign.

There were never any guarantees that Napoli's fortunes in 2023-24 would even come close to the iconic season they had before it. That said, very few thought they'd struggle quite like this. The "lightning in a bottle" they captured a year ago has almost completely disappeared.

The Weekly Take, Issue 286: This Is Where They Really Stand

If ever anyone had any questions about how large the skill gap between Europe's strongest domestic football leagues and the rest really was, those questions were undoubtedly put to rest following one fixture in this penultimate Champions League group stage matchday.

Benfica, who had already been eliminated from the tournament, blew a 3-0 half-time lead to finish with a 3-3 draw against Inter Milan. João Mário's hat-trick within the first 34 minutes was only good enough to give the Lisbon club a share of the points, as six minutes after the break Marko Arnautović reduced the gap before Davide Frattesi added another for Inter soon after. In the 72nd minute, veteran striker Alexis Sánchez equalized from the penalty spot following Nicolás Otamendi's foul on Inter substitute Marcus Thuram. Benfica's chances of victory were all but ended four minutes from the end of regulation time when they lost centre-back António Silva to a VAR-aided red card.

The reigning Primeira Liga champions, Benfica have established themselves as something of a Champions League overperformer in recent season. The Lisbon club have reached the tournament's quarterfinals in both of the past two seasons and have advanced from the group stage four times since the 2015-16 season - an impressive set of results given that this is a team which hasn't been battle-tested against truly elite teams domestically.

However, in some ways it was exactly that very lack of high-quality opposition which came back to haunt them against Inter. Despite having won nine of their first 11 league matches, Benfica play in the Primeira Liga, not in one of Europe's four major football leagues. Inter, on the other hand, have to play against Juventus, Napoli, and cross-town rivals AC Milan twice or more every season. While Sporting CP and Porto are no slouches themselves, they're certainly not up to the standard of the top teams from Italy, Germany, England, or Spain.

It's more than likely that a team from a stronger league would have held on to the large half-time lead that Benfica had instead of completely crumbling after the interval. There's something to be said about forging that "big-game mentality" in the furnace of a competitive domestic league. Though it may have been by no fault of their own, Benfica have not had the chance to do so - and that has been evident throughout this Champions League campaign.

When Benfica were drawn into Group D alongside Inter, Real Sociedad, and Red Bull Salzburg, many assumed that they would most likely qualify for the round of 16 in second place in the group. There was even an argument to be made that they had a puncher's chance of topping Group D. Instead, their draw against Inter has ended up being their only point of their campaign thus far. Now, Benfica must win their final group match against Salzburg to even finish third in the group and enter the Europa League.

The importance of playing in a highly competitive domestic league cannot be underestimated as far as Champions League performance is concerned. The prime example, of course, is Paris Saint-Germain. Despite possessing wealth far beyond that of even most other elite clubs and easing to the Ligue 1 title almost every year, PSG have never seriously threatened to win the Champions League apart from the outlier - the pandemic-afflicted 2019-20 season. The fact that in spite of their array of superstars and enormous amounts of money spent, PSG - by far the strongest team not playing in a major European league - find a way to blow it every year unless a freak world-changing event takes place (and even then they lost in the final), certainly says something.

Think of everything that was just mentioned about PSG and apply it to a club like Benfica - one which is still relatively competitive but doesn't have that kind of money. The growing skill gap between the top leagues and the rest is a major reason why we will almost certainly never again see a Champions League title go to a club outside those four powerhouse leagues.

While no one seriously believed that Benfica had a chance to win it all, their Champions League performance this season has nevertheless been tremendously underwhelming. It's a clear indictment of not only them, but the Primeira Liga and the rest of Europe's "lesser" leagues as well.

The Weekly Take, Issue 285: Everything in Place for a League Title Run

The latest edition of the Derby d'Italia saw Inter Milan maintain their two-point lead at the top of Serie A following a 1-1 away draw against Juventus. Dušan Vlahović gave Juve the lead after scoring in the 27th minute, only for Lautaro Martínez to equalize for Inter just six minutes later with his 13th league goal this season. The Argentinian striker is the runaway leader in this season's Capocannoniere race; his equalizing goal extended his lead over his nearest rivals to six.

Last season, Inter's league campaign certainly did not go according to plan. Finishing in third place, 18 points behind league champions Napoli, was a significant decline from the season before when the Nerazzurri were in title contention all the way up to the very last matchday. However, it wasn't all bad for Inter; they did make a somewhat unexpected run to the Champions League final where they lost 1-0 to Manchester City.

During the off-season, Inter underwent a significant squad overhaul. Notable names who left the blue half of the San Siro between seasons included Edin Džeko, Romelu Lukaku, André Onana, and Marcelo Brozović. Although Inter didn't spend heavily over the off-season, they certainly spent wisely. For a cumulative fee of less than €60 million, Inter added players such as Yann Sommer, Benjamin Pavard, and Francesco Acerbi to their roster. On top of that, Inter even landed Marcus Thuram on a free transfer from Borussia Mönchengladbach. This is how a roster overhaul ought to be done: one involving careful, judicious spending with a view towards players who would best suit the team. Inter have done exactly that.

The next point I'll bring up is one which I briefly alluded to earlier but merits further detail: the ascension of Lautaro Martínez to genuine superstar status. Ever since his dismal performance at the 2022 World Cup in which he contributed next to nothing to Argentina's eventual triumph, the man from Buenos Aires has been on a tear. Martínez finished last season with 21 league goals, placing him second behind Napoli's Victor Osimhen. Martínez has not only picked up where he left off; he has taken the next step - one which many assumed he might never have following his underwhelming showing in Qatar.

At this point, Martínez is clearly the best striker and arguably the best player in Serie A. He is now at the level where he could be the ace who not only spearheads a serious challenge for the Scudetto, but also another deep Champions League run - and if things break in Inter's favour, there is a possibility that they might even go all the way this time around. Martínez's exploits have gone somewhat under the radar this season because of the continued outstanding play of Erling Haaland, Harry Kane, and Jude Bellingham; however, at the rate at which he's going, everyone will soon have to take note of what Martínez has been doing at Inter.

That being said, the match against Juve did expose certain issues which could threaten to derail Inter's season. Inter's back three was not the most convincing against their opponents from Turin. Stefan De Vrij and Matteo Darmian were outplayed by Juve's attackers almost right from opening kick-off. It was, in fact, De Vrij's error that led to Vlahović's goal. Although Inter have thus far conceded a league-low seven goals this season, their backline has nonetheless shown the occasional lapse such as that against Juve. They definitely can't afford too many more instances like those as the season progresses.

Despite having had 66% of the possession, one could also fault Inter for being somewhat passive. Inter only attempted eight shots in the entire match despite almost doubling their opponents' time with the ball. There's no point in hogging all the possession if there would be no end product. Inter quite simply have to take charge once they have possession. There wasn't enough of that against Juve.

All that being said, the signs are generally pointing in the right direction for Inter Milan. This team has established itself as the early favourite to win Serie A after building off the momentum from last season's Champions League run. Although it remains to be seen if they can keep it going, these first few months have set the tone for what appears to be a bounce-back season in the league couples with another potential deep run in continental play.

The Weekly Take, Issue 284: Signs of a Possible Let-Up?

The standout fixture of the most recent set of CONMEBOL 2026 World Cup qualifiers served as perfect evidence why as far as rivalry matchups are concerned, a team's form heading into the match as well as the team's outright odds to win take on a diminished importance. As is so often the case, this one came down to "who wanted it more".

Argentina lost a match for the first time since winning the 2022 World Cup after Uruguay notched a 2-0 away victory against them. Barcelona centre-back Ronald Araújo opened the scoring for La Celeste shortly before halftime. Just three minutes before the end of regulation time, Liverpool striker Darwin Núñez scored Uruguay's second to seal the victory and slice Argentina's lead atop the qualifying leaderboard to just two points.

Uruguay displayed tremendous grit and guts to end La Albiceleste's unbeaten streak of 14 matches, keeping Argentina unsettled and on the back foot from almost the opening whistle. Additionally, while this may be just one match, it does raise further questions of this Argentina team - especially with the Copa América to be played at the end of the season.

After reaching the pinnacle of international football, it would only have been natural for Argentina's form to have dipped soon after. Like all other World Cup champions, every player on that Argentina team fulfilled a lifetime goal when they defeated France in Doha to reclaim the world title after 36 years. However, there is another layer to this matter as far as this Argentina team is concerned: the manner by which they won it.

Argentina's World Cup victory last year undoubtedly ranks among the most emotionally- and sentimentally-charged victories not only in World Cup or even football history, but in sports history. Long before the squad even arrived in Qatar, there had always been an undercurrent of "win it for Lionel Messi" that served to drive the team on to greater heights. This was certainly understandable - at the time, only a World Cup victory was needed for Messi to expunge any remaining doubts and cement himself as unquestionably the greatest footballer of all time.

Of course, Messi and Argentina delivered in a climax seemingly taken directly from a sports movie. However, after the tournament's end, one might have wondered about the victory's effects on the players' psyches. The physical exertions of the tournament aside, the sheer mental and emotional drain such a win could have had on the team might have led Argentina to have come out flat in the matches immediately following the World Cup.

This initially appeared not to be the case. Prior to this Uruguay match, Argentina did not lose any of their eight matches since the World Cup. That being said, it had to be noted that in the qualifiers for the next World Cup, Argentina's most difficult matches were yet to come - starting with this match against Uruguay at La Bombonera. Argentina's next match will also be against an arch-rival: next up for them is Brazil away next week.

Going back to the Uruguay match, what stood out most negatively for Argentina was the fact that they were outworked and out-hustled. This is particularly damning given the fact that this was a rivalry match-up - the type of match which one would expect players to enter the field full of vigour, passion, and energy. None of those words described Argentina in this match - and one has to wonder: could this be the first sign of the post-World Cup let-up? The upcoming match against Brazil will surely answer a lot of questions.

If Argentina once again drop points against Brazil after being a step behind from kick-off, serious doubts have to be cast over their Copa chances in half a year's time. While they would not be the first team to have ever experienced a decline after winning the World Cup, to see it happen in this way would certainly be eye-opening.

Of course, to outright dismiss Argentina's prospects going forward would be foolish indeed. That being said, the match against Uruguay proves that the cracks may be starting to show themselves. More performances like that - which would not even be all that unrealistic - would not bode well for their chances of defending their continental title.

The Weekly Take, Issue 283: On the Cusp of a New Low

Ever since Paris Saint-Germain's takeover by Qatar Sports Investments in 2011, their Champions League campaigns have invariably ended in failure - and often in spectacular and shocking fashion to boot. This season, PSG might somehow manage to top themselves once again.

After a 2-1 Champions League group stage loss against AC Milan, PSG find themselves in a precarious spot with regard to qualification for the round of 16. Centre-back Milan Škriniar opened the scoring for PSG in the ninth minute before Rafael Leão scored the Rossoneri's equalizer just three minutes later. Shortly after the half-time break, Olivier Giroud's goal clinched all three points for Milan, whose victory kept them firmly in contention for a place in the last 16.

While PSG are still in second place in Group F behind Borussia Dortmund, they could realistically fail to qualify for the round of 16 and slip into the Europa League or even be eliminated from continental play altogether. PSG have six points with two matches remaining - just one point ahead of Milan and two ahead of Newcastle United.

In spite of their unprecedented run of Champions League knockout stage futility, at the very least PSG have never failed to qualify for it ever since the Qatari acquisition. This might very well change this season. Having been drawn in this season's Group of Death, PSG are arguably just as likely to lose their last two group stage matches as they are to win them. Such a turn of events would eliminate PSG from the tournament - and given their track record, this certainly cannot be ruled out.

As has always been the case, PSG spent an enormous amount of money on transfers during the off-season. The Parisian club added players including Manuel Ugarte, Lucas Hernandez, Ousmane Dembélé, and Randal Kolo Muani; Gonçalo Ramos also arrived at the Parc des Princes by way of a loan deal from Benfica. What must also be noted, however, is the myriad of exits from the club. PSG attempted to undergo a full-scale overhaul in just one off-season after Neymar, Lionel Messi, Marco Verratti, Sergio Ramos, Julian Draxler, and countless others left the club while new signing Xavi Simons went to RB Leipzig on loan - where he has emerged as a star in the making.

With so many squad changes over such a short time period, some team chemistry issues were naturally to have been expected - but not many could have anticipated it to have been on this level. Throughout this Champions League group stage, PSG have often looked disjointed and incoherent. They have often played more like 11 individuals than one unit - this was once again apparent against Milan.

In a post-match interview, PSG midfielder Vitinha noted that PSG allowed Milan to dictate the tempo of the match, especially in the second half. This has been a common theme of PSG's matches this season - in particular when playing as the away team. What really doesn't help PSG is the fact that their last group-stage match is against Dortmund away. PSG will come face-to-face with the iconic "Yellow Wall" - arguably the most intimidating home stand in world football. Couple that with PSG's propensity for choking under pressure and you have a seemingly shocking elimination waiting to happen.

It would, of course, be a fool's errand to completely write PSG off at this point. On their day they are more than capable of out-talenting any other team on the planet, let alone in this group. They also have by far the group's best player in Kylian Mbappé. On paper, one would expect them to live up to their billing, win out, and top the group.

Yet, it has always felt as though PSG are a step away from disaster - and this has perhaps never felt more true as it does now. The biggest issue at this club goes beyond any player, coach, or even owner - it's a systemic issue. For all their money and their glamorous exterior, PSG fear the spotlight and regardless of personnel have invariably shrunk when the time has come to step up.

If Paris Saint-Germain do get knocked out of the Champions League in the group stage, do not be surprised if they once again attempt an overhaul next off-season - only for it to once again amount to nothing.