The Weekly Take, Issue 263: Flat-Track Bully

The latest set of qualifying matches for the 2024 European Championship did not feature any two continental powerhouses going head-to-head. However, one match which ended up being somewhat notable due to its retrospective implications was a Group F clash in which heavy underdogs Estonia hosted Belgium.

To absolutely nobody's surprise, Belgium claimed a one-sided 3-0 victory. Inter Milan striker Romelu Lukaku scored the first two goals of the match within a three-minute span shortly before half-time. In the closing stages, Johan Bakayoko scored Belgium's third and the first goal of his international football career. Belgium's win allowed them to pull away from Sweden, who lost 2-0 to Austria, and take a major step towards claiming one of the two automatic qualification slots which each group allocates.

Lukaku's two goals have now put him on 75 goals for his country - a remarkable figure considering the fact that he has played just 108 international matches with many of those matches having been against top opposition at World Cups and European Championships. At just 30 years of age, Lukaku is almost certainly a lock to reach three digits before he retires. If he plays until his late 30s, Cristiano Ronaldo's all-time record of 123 international goals could still potentially be in play.

However, closer inspection reveals Lukaku on the international scene to be nothing more than a mere flat-track bully. Of his 75 goals in a Belgium jersey, only six of them have come against genuinely top-tier opponents at the time. To make matters even worse, only two of them came in either a World Cup, European Championship, or Nations League Finals: one goal against Italy in the Euro 2020 quarterfinals and another against France in the semifinals of the 2021 Nations League Finals.

On far too many occasions, Lukaku has failed to deliver when the pressure has been at its highest. At this point, one almost expects him to crumble on the biggest stages because that is what he has done time and again. From his own goal to lose his heavily-favoured Inter team the 2020 Europa League final against Sevilla to missing four relatively simple goalscoring opportunities against Croatia - causing Belgium to be knocked out of the 2022 World Cup group stage - to diverting teammate Federico Dimarco's goal-bound header in the Champions League final earlier this month before missing a wide-open header of his own soon after, Lukaku is the very embodiment of the term "un-clutch".

Lukaku's struggles under pressure are likely to sink Belgium at next year's European Championship. While Belgium are certainly not the favourites to win it all following their dismal performance at last year's World Cup, they do have the star power to at least give themselves a puncher's chance - or they would if someone other than Lukaku were leading the attack. The issue that faces Domenico Tedesco's team, however, is this: if not Lukaku, who else is at the level required to be Belgium's starting centre-forward? Loïs Openda? Michy Batshuayi? Divock Origi? At this point, it's just not going to happen - the primary reason why he has had this many opportunities is simply because, for all of Lukaku's flaws, Belgium do not have any other centre-forward who even remotely approaches his tier.

Whether for club or country, Lukaku is now a shadow of the player who thoroughly dominated Serie A with Inter from 2019 to 2021. Lukaku's decline since then has been stunning to say the least: in the 2021-22 season at the age of just 29, he had by far his worst season in many years; he has not even come close to returning to his prior level since then. He might look good in low-stakes matches against lesser opposition, but that's not nearly enough for this team which, with the exception of the 2018 World Cup, has also underperformed in major tournaments on countless occasions.

Although we have seen players break through such a "barrier" before and finally bring their top form to high-leverage matches after years of doing the opposite, such instances tend to be outliers. Romelu Lukaku's gaudy goalscoring statistics mask the reality: a team that depends on a flat-track bully as the lynchpin of the attack will never reach the highest level - something both Belgium and Lukaku's clubs know all too well by now.

The Weekly Take, Issue 262: A Nail-Biting Victory - But Questions Remain

The final of the 2022-23 UEFA Nations League went down to the wire, with Spain prevailing over Croatia with a 5-4 penalty shootout victory after the match remained goalless at the conclusion of both regulation and extra time. La Furia Roja's win provided some degree of redemption after their shocking round of 16 shootout loss against Morocco at last year's World Cup.

Spain's rebuild following the aging and retirement of their iconic "golden generation" which won two European Championships and a World Cup from 2008 to 2012 is now just about complete; it can now be fairly clearly seen just how they will set up as they prepare for Euro 2024 in Germany.

Probably the most notable feature about Spain right now is their midfield. After a breakout Treble-winning season at Manchester City, Rodri has made the starting defensive midfield spot his own. Alongside him would ordinarily have been Pedri; however, the Barcelona midfielder was kept out of Spain's Nations League Final Four squad by a muscle injury. At the head of the "triangle" in the number 10 slot is Pedri's Barça teammate Gavi. What makes this midfield trio especially notable is the fact that Pedri is still only 20 while Gavi is 18; Spain's starters at central and attacking midfield could very well have already been settled for the next decade or even beyond. In addition to the starters, Spain's midfield is also extremely deep; they can call upon the likes of Mikel Merino, Fabián Ruiz, Sergio Canales, and Carlos Soler as backups if necessary.

A holdover from their dominant era over a decade ago, Spain continue to employ a possession-heavy playstyle with intense pressing. The match against Croatia highlighted this, with Spain dictating the tempo of the match almost from the opening kick-off. This is where Spain tend to be most in their element; the fact that the score was still 0-0 after 120 minutes was somewhat anomalous. This match somewhat echoed Spain's victory in the 2010 World Cup final which played out very similarly. Certainly, although almost all the players of that generation have since retired, its impact not only continues to permeate the current team but also evolve through the presence of Barça players such as Pedri, Gavi, Ansu Fati, and legendary full-back Jordi Alba; Barça's "tiki-taka" playstyle was the primary influence on the 2008-12 team's strategy. Although Barça no longer employ such tactics to their fullest extent, the lasting legacy is readily apparent for both club and country.

On the other hand, one key problem which Spain are already facing is their lack of options up front. Spain do not have a reliable goal threat. It should be evident by now that Álvaro Morata is not the answer at centre-forward. The question is, who else do they have? Fati? Pablo Sarabia? Rodrigo? None of those are exactly names that spark a great deal of confidence. The fact that Spain scored zero goals from 21 shots in the match against Croatia speaks volumes. Additionally, Spain do not have any prolific goalscorers at any other position. It must be kept in mind that a Nations League Final Four run is just two matches long; this is therefore likely unsustainable over an entire Euro campaign.

There is also the realistic possibility that Spain could simply end up being out-strategized at Euro 2024. As far as coaching at this level is concerned, Luis de la Fuente is a relative greenhorn despite having over a quarter of a century of experience in the dugout at lower levels. Although he may have come through the Nations League unscathed, it remains to be seen how he will handle facing off against the likes of Didier Deschamps, Hansi Flick, and Domenico Tedesco, among others.

While this Nations League victory is undoubtedly a positive step for Spain, there is still much uncertainty about their status as bona fide Euro 2024 title contenders. Although a fourth continental title next year is not out of the question by any means, it does appear to be a tall order at the moment, especially if they do not secure direct qualification from Group A. However, depending on how their younger players develop, World Cup 2026 or Euro 2028 could be more realistic title targets.

The Weekly Take, Issue 261: In the Realm of the Gods

Before the beginning of any season, no matter how great a team might look on paper, it's very rare that anyone ever assumes "this team will go on to become perhaps the greatest team in the history of club football". The number of teams that have ever existed at that most elevated of planes could arguably be counted on one hand.

The 2022-23 Manchester City squad completed their ascension to that absolute apex level by completing the Treble following their 1-0 Champions League final victory over Inter Milan. Rodri's second-half goal was enough to ensure that the Citizens would become just the seventh team of the modern era to win their domestic league, domestic cup, and Champions League in the same season. City did, however, survive a close shave on two occasions after taking the lead. Federico Dimarco's goal-bound header bounced back off Inter teammate Romelu Lukaku; a goal would have levelled the score at 1-1. Shortly before the end of regulation time, Lukaku had a golden opportunity to atone for his earlier error, but he botched a simple unguarded header by aiming it straight at City goalkeeper Ederson despite having plenty of room to bury it in the back of the net.

The most impressive part of City's Treble this season was not so much the fact that they won the Treble as it was the manner by which they did. Once they seized the lead from Arsenal in the Premier League, a sweep of the three main trophies available to them seemed inevitable.

Where do we even begin when discussing this legendary, historic squad? This was a team that had it all - captain İlkay Gündoğan's assured, reliable leadership, Kevin De Bruyne's ability to play the game in bullet time, John Stones' seamless pivot from centre-back to central midfield, Jack Grealish and Phil Foden's emergence as key pieces to this remarkable puzzle, and of course, Erling Haaland's polonium-like lethality in front of the net. Tying it all together is the next-level coaching from the 300-IQ strategic mind of Pep Guardiola who, with his third career Champions League title and second Treble, has surely now established himself as the greatest of all time.

City's first clear statement of intent came before the season even got underway with the acquisition of Haaland from Borussia Dortmund. For the abysmally low transfer fee of €60 million, City's signing of the Norwegian centre-forward might already be the greatest transfer signing in football history. In October, City dispatched cross-town rivals United with a convincing 6-3 Manchester derby victory - the first sign that something truly special was in the making at the Etihad Stadium.

City would go on to make a major move in the title race with a 3-1 away win over Arsenal in February, allowing them to go top of the league. Soon after, Guardiola reconfigured the team's primary formation - a previously little-seen 3-2-4-1 which would prove to be a rousing success. Win after win followed, culminating in arguably the greatest single season ever put together by a football club - and certainly the finest by an English club.

Some may rush to point out the immense amount of money that club owner Sheikh Mansour spent to put this team together. While that may be true, long is the list of clubs that have spent colossal amounts of money only to come up short on European football's biggest stage. Additionally, City's signings of their two best players - Haaland and De Bruyne (arguably three if Gündoğan is added) - were vast underpays.

Is this actually the greatest club team of all time? Well, that's a difficult call to make - in the modern era alone, legendary teams like United 2008, Barcelona 2009, and Real Madrid 2017 come to mind. Travel further back in time and teams like Ajax 1972, Bayern Munich 1974, and AC Milan 1990 enter the conversation. That being said, City 2023 simply have to be considered in this discussion; they have just about as strong a claim as any of those other iconic teams.

In 20, 30, or even 50 years, long-time football fans the world over will wax lyrical about the time they saw Manchester City made European football bend to their will. This season's City team has become a permanent part of the football canon.

The Weekly Take, Issue 260: No Fox Remaining

Ever since I began writing these weekly posts, I have always focused on teams which are somewhat relevant at the upper end of their respective leagues. For that reason, I never expected a team about which I once wrote to be relegated within just a few years of that post. However, this is exactly what has happened.

In one of the most shocking relegations in recent memory, Leicester City slipped into next season's Championship after spending nine seasons in the Premier League. Despite claiming a 2-1 home victory over West Ham United, Leicester's victory proved to be in vain. The Foxes' fall into England's second-tier league was confirmed following Everton's 1-0 win over Bournemouth.

Although the match between Leicester and West Ham took place more than a week ago, I avoided making this post until now because one week later, Valencia and Getafe, two other clubs about which I had also previously written, were themselves in danger of relegation heading into the last La Liga matchday. Both survived after Valencia drew 1-1 against Real Betis while Getafe and Valladolid played to a 0-0 draw. The latter result also relegated Valladolid to LaLiga 2.

At the beginning of this season, almost no one could possibly have foreseen Leicester's relegation. The East Midlands club had been coming off three solid seasons which yielded two fifth-place league finishes, an FA Cup victory, and a run to the Europa Conference League semifinals. Leicester had clearly established themselves as a staple within the league's top 10 and entered the season with a decent chance of qualifying for the following season's Europa League - and perhaps even a puncher's chance of a Champions League spot if circumstances broke their way.

To say that this did not materialize would be a severe understatement. Leicester lost seven of their first nine league matches, leaving them in last place. Four wins in five matches soon after put them in 13th; however, this brief glimmer of hope ended up being the outlier. Loss after loss after loss began to pile up; after losing to Crystal Palace in April, Leicester were once again in the relegation zone where they would stay until the end of the season.

On paper, a team containing players like Youri Tielemans, Jamie Vardy, James Maddison, and Wout Faes should have no reason to even be close to a relegation dogfight, let alone succumb to it. That being said, when one takes a closer look at the reality of Leicester's season, it will be seen that some clear problems were overlooked; these unaddressed problems ended up being the club's undoing.

During the 2022 off-season transfer window, Leicester sold starting goalkeeper Kasper Schmeichel to Ligue 1 club Nice. This seemed understandable at first, given the fact that Schmeichel was 35 and in the twilight of his career. However, Leicester made what would prove to be a grievous error by not signing a starting goalkeeper, instead elevating Danny Ward to the starting 11. It soon became evident that Ward was simply not ready and clearly out of his depth between the goalposts. Leicester's 68 conceded goals ranked them joint-16th in the league in that statistic; their lack of a true starter-level goalkeeper was a major reason for their struggles on defense.

Leicester also took far too long to fire Brendan Rodgers. It should have been obvious that the Northern Irishman no longer had what it took to remain as Leicester's head coach if the club were to avoid relegation. By the time Rodgers was dismissed in April and replaced by Dean Smith, it was already too late in the season to make the changes necessary to get Leicester out of the relegation zone. Rodgers' primary failure this past season was his refusal to play a 3-5-2 formation which far better suited Leicester's personnel than his preferred 4-2-3-1.

Even after falling into the Championship, things are likely to get worse for Leicester City. Many key players are expected to leave the King Power Stadium in the coming off-season as a result of their relegation; this will only make their effort to return to the Premier League even more difficult. Leicester's transfer budget has also been hamstrung; the club's owners lost a great deal of money during the Covid-19 pandemic as their primary business activities were in airport duty-free stores. All things considered, Leicester might be in for a long and arduous road back.

The Weekly Take, Issue 259: Staring Down the Abyss

There can be no question that Juventus have endured a season which could be described as just about anything apart from "ordinary". In January, Juventus received a deduction of 15 points in Serie A after having been found guilty of false accounting. Several of the club's board members, including former club president Andrea Agnelli, were also suspended owing to their respective roles in the related incidents. However, three months later, this point penalty was suspended pending a further trial. The points of which the Bianconeri had been stripped were returned to the Turin club; this caused Juve to rocket up the league table and into firm contention for a top-four spot and thus a Champions League berth.

As it would turn out, there would be another twist to come. On May 22, another charge of false accounting resulted in Juve incurring a 10-point penalty; this point deduction all but ended their chances of qualifying for next season's Champions League. Juve's hopes of making the top four were then extinguished once and for all with a 1-0 home loss to AC Milan. Olivier Giroud scored the only goal of the match. Milan's victory also ensured that it would be the Rossoneri who would join league champions Napoli as well as Lazio and Inter Milan in next season's Champions League.

Over the past three seasons, the general situation at the Allianz Stadium has progressively worsened. The "dominoes" that set Juve's decline into motion was the firing of former head coach Maurizio Sarri and the subsequent replacement of Sarri with Andrea Pirlo. In his first season in Turin, Sarri had led Juve to the league title for an unprecedented ninth consecutive season. Yet, in what can only be described as a knee-jerk move, Sarri was fired at the end of the season after an upset Champions League round of 16 loss to Lyon.

With the incompetent Pirlo in the dugout, Juve did not even come close to retaining their Scudetto. They finished fourth in 2020-21 and ended up a massive 13 points behind league champions Inter. Juve were also once again knocked out of the Champions League in the round of 16. Despite winning the Coppa Italia, Pirlo was rightly dismissed at the end of the season. Juve's dismal season also led to legendary forward Cristiano Ronaldo's departure from the club and stunning return to Manchester United.

Last season, Juve again finished fourth in the league; however, this time they finished 16 points behind league champions Milan and scored just 57 league goals. Paulo Dybala's 10 goals made him the club's only player to break the double-digit barrier in the league. This season, of course, has been even worse. Juventus will miss out on the Champions League for the first time since they finished seventh in the 2010-11 season. Juve are once again in seventh place with one matchday remaining; failure to overtake either Atalanta or AS Roma would mean that Juve would not even qualify for the Europa League but instead have to enter the Conference League.

It may soon get even worse for Juve. Should their point penalty be upheld, Juve will begin the 2023-24 Serie A season with -15 points, greatly hampering their chances of returning to the top four even before the season's opening kickoff. This would also make it almost impossible for Juve to attract any notable names during the upcoming off-season transfer window; at this point, it is somewhat likely that over the off-season, clubs like Napoli, Milan, and Inter will get stronger while Juve either stagnate or perhaps even continue their decline. It's not out of the question that Juve lose key players who are only interested in playing for a Champions League club.

Juventus' downfall has been as stunning as it has been swift and their decline has been becoming steeper and steeper. If Juve were to finish next season outside the top 10 in the league while once again suffering an early exit in their continental tournament, it would not even be all that surprising. Juve's path back to the top table is a long and difficult one indeed. It could be many years before they are once again a bona fide Scudetto contender.

The Weekly Take, Issue 258: A Sign of Things to Come?

The penultimate matchday of this season's Bundesliga saw 10-time reigning league champions Bayern Munich host RB Leipzig. A Bayern victory would all but certainly guarantee them a record-extending 11th consecutive league title. However, this was not to be the case as Leipzig came from behind to register a remarkable 3-1 victory.

Bayern scored first by way of Serge Gnabry and took this one-goal lead into the halftime break. After the interval, Konrad Laimer scored Leipzig's equalizer, adding additional intrigue to not only this match, but the title race as well. In the 76th minute, Leipzig took the lead after Christopher Nkunku scored from the penalty spot after earning the spot-kick. Four minutes before the end of regulation time, Dominik Szoboszlai clinched all three points for Die Bullen by converting a penalty of his own.

Leipzig's victory just about sank Bayern's hopes of winning the league once again. Bayern will now not only have to beat Köln on the final matchday in order to clinch the Bundesliga title; they will also have to do so while Borussia Dortmund do not beat Mainz. Any other permutation of results will cause Dortmund to win the Bundesliga for the first time since the 2011-12 season.

As for Leipzig, this latest victory adds another step forward in their strong finish to what had once seemed as though it would be a season full of struggle. Following an off-season transfer window which included several questionable decisions, Leipzig stumbled out of the gates. After seven league matchdays, the club from Saxony were in 12th place in the league, had lost their first two Champions League matches including a crushing 4-1 defeat at the hands of Shakhtar Donetsk, and had just fired head coach Domenico Tedesco; he was replaced by Marco Rose. It was certainly possible that Leipzig could have been heading for their worst season since their first promotion to the Bundesliga in 2016.

Slowly but surely, however, things began to change at the Red Bull Arena. With Rose in the dugout, the team gradually began to gel. The wins started to pile up and Leipzig embarked on their ascent of the league table. An undefeated streak of 12 league matches put Leipzig in fourth place in early February. Leipzig did not let up; they went on to reach the final of the DFB-Pokal with an impressive victory against Dortmund along the way. Leipzig have also won six of their last seven league matches and will finish the season in the top three of the league for the fifth time in the past seven seasons.

Although Leipzig will not win the Bundesliga for the first time in the club's history, they do have a golden opportunity to do so next season. Bayern are in their weakest and most vulnerable state in more than a decade. Dortmund, meanwhile, are likely to lose several players in the upcoming off-season including, most notably of all, Jude Bellingham. One of world football's most promising young talents, the English midfielder is widely expected to land a move to Real Madrid before the 2023-24 season begins. This is likely to leave a power vacuum at the top of the league - a vacuum into which Leipzig could easily step.

Leipzig have been linked with Real midfielder Dani Ceballos and Arsenal striker Folarin Balogun. While Ceballos is certainly no scrub, Balogun is by far the more intriguing prospect. Leipzig's leading goalscorer in the league this season is Nkunku with 14 goals; no other player has reached double figures. Almost a year ago, Leipzig made the critical error of letting Ademola Lookman leave for Atalanta for just €9 million; the Nigerian striker has since had a breakout season. However, Balogun appears due for a breakout season of his own. At just 21, the American is brimming with potential after an excellent season on loan at Reims. Balogun appears ready to make the step up to a major European league.

Despite early missteps, the energy surrounding RB Leipzig is completely different to that of the beginning of the season. They could now be just a few well-planned moves away from building something truly special. No club other than Bayern or Dortmund has won the Bundesliga since VfL Wolfsburg's stunning triumph in the 2008-09 season. It's certainly not out of the question that Leipzig could end this streak next season.

The Weekly Take, Issue 257: Nobody Could Have Seen This Coming

The Derby della Madonnina is one of world football's most hotly-contested derbies - not least because unlike many other cross-town rivalries, AC Milan and Inter Milan share a stadium. The latest edition of this iconic clash had an added layer of importance to it - both Milan clubs had been drawn against each other in this season's Champions League semifinals.

Designated as the away team, Inter all but guaranteed themselves a spot in European football's showpiece match with a 2-0 victory over Milan in the first leg of this semifinal fixture. Both goals were scored in the opening exchanges of the match; veteran striker Edin Džeko opened the scoring in the eighth minute. Three minutes later, Henrikh Mkhitaryan's goal put Inter two ahead and ensured that the Nerazzurri would take a commanding lead into the second leg. If Inter were to finish the job in the second leg, they would enter the Champions League final for the first time since 2010 - the culmination of their iconic Treble-winning season.

Even as recently as one to two months ago, not even the most die-hard Inter fans could have realistically believed that the club would be in this position today. A Serie A campaign full of struggle has left Inter's chances of a top-four spot in a precarious position with just four matches remaining. Inter have not finished outside the top two in the league since the 2018-19 season; additionally, the last time they missed the top four and the Champions League spot that comes with it was in 2016-17.

Inter's Champions League campaign this season also got off to a slow start, barely surviving a stacked group which also contained Bayern Munich and Barcelona. This was following by a 1-0 aggregate victory over Porto in the round of 16; this victory was not exactly convincing. The same could be said of Inter's quarterfinal victory over Benfica. Yet, in spite of all of this, Inter now find themselves 90 minutes away from the Champions League final.

What's more, Inter's path to this point has not happened in the way many might have thought it would have when the season began. They had a productive off-season transfer window, adding eight players to the blue half of the San Siro including André Onana, Romelu Lukaku, Joaquín Correa, Robin Gosens, and Francesco Acerbi. However, none of their acqusitions have turned out to be among the club's top performers this season. Despite this, players such as Lautaro Martínez, Hakan Çalhanoğlu, and Nicolò Barella have stepped up and played major roles in keeping Inter's top-four league bid afloat as well as spearheading Inter's likely run to the Champions League final.

Additionally, Inter could easily have been derailed after the World Cup. Despite being part of the Argentina team which claimed a first world title in 36 years, Lautaro was clearly a net negative for the Albiceleste. One could easily make the case that his greatest contribution to Argentina's victory was his abysmal performance against Saudi Arabia which caused him to get benched in favour of Manchester City striker Julián Álvarez for the rest of the tournament. Considering this fact, there were certainly questions about Lautaro's form following his return from Qatar. However, Lautaro went on to silence the doubters by returning to his pre-World Cup form as soon as he once again put on an Inter jersey.

Inter's Champions League success so far, unlike their title run 13 years ago, hasn't even been a product of tactical brilliance. While head coach Simone Inzaghi has shown a reasonable level of competence thus far, he is not even close to the highest echelon in which his opposite number in the final - either Real Madrid's Carlo Ancelotti or City's Pep Guardiola - will reside.

On the whole, not a lot about Inter's Champions League run thus far makes much sense on the surface; it has been nothing less than the epitome of "taking it one match at a time" - but will that be enough in the final? Porto, Benfica, and Milan are far from the toughest possible opponents that Inter could have faced. Real or City will be on a completely different level. Conventional wisdom dictates that Inter lack the star power to win it all - but conventional wisdom has been thrown out the window with Inter on the continental stage thus far. For all we know, the biggest twist could be just around the corner.