The Weekly Take, Issue 259: Staring Down the Abyss

There can be no question that Juventus have endured a season which could be described as just about anything apart from "ordinary". In January, Juventus received a deduction of 15 points in Serie A after having been found guilty of false accounting. Several of the club's board members, including former club president Andrea Agnelli, were also suspended owing to their respective roles in the related incidents. However, three months later, this point penalty was suspended pending a further trial. The points of which the Bianconeri had been stripped were returned to the Turin club; this caused Juve to rocket up the league table and into firm contention for a top-four spot and thus a Champions League berth.

As it would turn out, there would be another twist to come. On May 22, another charge of false accounting resulted in Juve incurring a 10-point penalty; this point deduction all but ended their chances of qualifying for next season's Champions League. Juve's hopes of making the top four were then extinguished once and for all with a 1-0 home loss to AC Milan. Olivier Giroud scored the only goal of the match. Milan's victory also ensured that it would be the Rossoneri who would join league champions Napoli as well as Lazio and Inter Milan in next season's Champions League.

Over the past three seasons, the general situation at the Allianz Stadium has progressively worsened. The "dominoes" that set Juve's decline into motion was the firing of former head coach Maurizio Sarri and the subsequent replacement of Sarri with Andrea Pirlo. In his first season in Turin, Sarri had led Juve to the league title for an unprecedented ninth consecutive season. Yet, in what can only be described as a knee-jerk move, Sarri was fired at the end of the season after an upset Champions League round of 16 loss to Lyon.

With the incompetent Pirlo in the dugout, Juve did not even come close to retaining their Scudetto. They finished fourth in 2020-21 and ended up a massive 13 points behind league champions Inter. Juve were also once again knocked out of the Champions League in the round of 16. Despite winning the Coppa Italia, Pirlo was rightly dismissed at the end of the season. Juve's dismal season also led to legendary forward Cristiano Ronaldo's departure from the club and stunning return to Manchester United.

Last season, Juve again finished fourth in the league; however, this time they finished 16 points behind league champions Milan and scored just 57 league goals. Paulo Dybala's 10 goals made him the club's only player to break the double-digit barrier in the league. This season, of course, has been even worse. Juventus will miss out on the Champions League for the first time since they finished seventh in the 2010-11 season. Juve are once again in seventh place with one matchday remaining; failure to overtake either Atalanta or AS Roma would mean that Juve would not even qualify for the Europa League but instead have to enter the Conference League.

It may soon get even worse for Juve. Should their point penalty be upheld, Juve will begin the 2023-24 Serie A season with -15 points, greatly hampering their chances of returning to the top four even before the season's opening kickoff. This would also make it almost impossible for Juve to attract any notable names during the upcoming off-season transfer window; at this point, it is somewhat likely that over the off-season, clubs like Napoli, Milan, and Inter will get stronger while Juve either stagnate or perhaps even continue their decline. It's not out of the question that Juve lose key players who are only interested in playing for a Champions League club.

Juventus' downfall has been as stunning as it has been swift and their decline has been becoming steeper and steeper. If Juve were to finish next season outside the top 10 in the league while once again suffering an early exit in their continental tournament, it would not even be all that surprising. Juve's path back to the top table is a long and difficult one indeed. It could be many years before they are once again a bona fide Scudetto contender.

The Weekly Take, Issue 258: A Sign of Things to Come?

The penultimate matchday of this season's Bundesliga saw 10-time reigning league champions Bayern Munich host RB Leipzig. A Bayern victory would all but certainly guarantee them a record-extending 11th consecutive league title. However, this was not to be the case as Leipzig came from behind to register a remarkable 3-1 victory.

Bayern scored first by way of Serge Gnabry and took this one-goal lead into the halftime break. After the interval, Konrad Laimer scored Leipzig's equalizer, adding additional intrigue to not only this match, but the title race as well. In the 76th minute, Leipzig took the lead after Christopher Nkunku scored from the penalty spot after earning the spot-kick. Four minutes before the end of regulation time, Dominik Szoboszlai clinched all three points for Die Bullen by converting a penalty of his own.

Leipzig's victory just about sank Bayern's hopes of winning the league once again. Bayern will now not only have to beat Köln on the final matchday in order to clinch the Bundesliga title; they will also have to do so while Borussia Dortmund do not beat Mainz. Any other permutation of results will cause Dortmund to win the Bundesliga for the first time since the 2011-12 season.

As for Leipzig, this latest victory adds another step forward in their strong finish to what had once seemed as though it would be a season full of struggle. Following an off-season transfer window which included several questionable decisions, Leipzig stumbled out of the gates. After seven league matchdays, the club from Saxony were in 12th place in the league, had lost their first two Champions League matches including a crushing 4-1 defeat at the hands of Shakhtar Donetsk, and had just fired head coach Domenico Tedesco; he was replaced by Marco Rose. It was certainly possible that Leipzig could have been heading for their worst season since their first promotion to the Bundesliga in 2016.

Slowly but surely, however, things began to change at the Red Bull Arena. With Rose in the dugout, the team gradually began to gel. The wins started to pile up and Leipzig embarked on their ascent of the league table. An undefeated streak of 12 league matches put Leipzig in fourth place in early February. Leipzig did not let up; they went on to reach the final of the DFB-Pokal with an impressive victory against Dortmund along the way. Leipzig have also won six of their last seven league matches and will finish the season in the top three of the league for the fifth time in the past seven seasons.

Although Leipzig will not win the Bundesliga for the first time in the club's history, they do have a golden opportunity to do so next season. Bayern are in their weakest and most vulnerable state in more than a decade. Dortmund, meanwhile, are likely to lose several players in the upcoming off-season including, most notably of all, Jude Bellingham. One of world football's most promising young talents, the English midfielder is widely expected to land a move to Real Madrid before the 2023-24 season begins. This is likely to leave a power vacuum at the top of the league - a vacuum into which Leipzig could easily step.

Leipzig have been linked with Real midfielder Dani Ceballos and Arsenal striker Folarin Balogun. While Ceballos is certainly no scrub, Balogun is by far the more intriguing prospect. Leipzig's leading goalscorer in the league this season is Nkunku with 14 goals; no other player has reached double figures. Almost a year ago, Leipzig made the critical error of letting Ademola Lookman leave for Atalanta for just €9 million; the Nigerian striker has since had a breakout season. However, Balogun appears due for a breakout season of his own. At just 21, the American is brimming with potential after an excellent season on loan at Reims. Balogun appears ready to make the step up to a major European league.

Despite early missteps, the energy surrounding RB Leipzig is completely different to that of the beginning of the season. They could now be just a few well-planned moves away from building something truly special. No club other than Bayern or Dortmund has won the Bundesliga since VfL Wolfsburg's stunning triumph in the 2008-09 season. It's certainly not out of the question that Leipzig could end this streak next season.

The Weekly Take, Issue 257: Nobody Could Have Seen This Coming

The Derby della Madonnina is one of world football's most hotly-contested derbies - not least because unlike many other cross-town rivalries, AC Milan and Inter Milan share a stadium. The latest edition of this iconic clash had an added layer of importance to it - both Milan clubs had been drawn against each other in this season's Champions League semifinals.

Designated as the away team, Inter all but guaranteed themselves a spot in European football's showpiece match with a 2-0 victory over Milan in the first leg of this semifinal fixture. Both goals were scored in the opening exchanges of the match; veteran striker Edin Džeko opened the scoring in the eighth minute. Three minutes later, Henrikh Mkhitaryan's goal put Inter two ahead and ensured that the Nerazzurri would take a commanding lead into the second leg. If Inter were to finish the job in the second leg, they would enter the Champions League final for the first time since 2010 - the culmination of their iconic Treble-winning season.

Even as recently as one to two months ago, not even the most die-hard Inter fans could have realistically believed that the club would be in this position today. A Serie A campaign full of struggle has left Inter's chances of a top-four spot in a precarious position with just four matches remaining. Inter have not finished outside the top two in the league since the 2018-19 season; additionally, the last time they missed the top four and the Champions League spot that comes with it was in 2016-17.

Inter's Champions League campaign this season also got off to a slow start, barely surviving a stacked group which also contained Bayern Munich and Barcelona. This was following by a 1-0 aggregate victory over Porto in the round of 16; this victory was not exactly convincing. The same could be said of Inter's quarterfinal victory over Benfica. Yet, in spite of all of this, Inter now find themselves 90 minutes away from the Champions League final.

What's more, Inter's path to this point has not happened in the way many might have thought it would have when the season began. They had a productive off-season transfer window, adding eight players to the blue half of the San Siro including André Onana, Romelu Lukaku, Joaquín Correa, Robin Gosens, and Francesco Acerbi. However, none of their acqusitions have turned out to be among the club's top performers this season. Despite this, players such as Lautaro Martínez, Hakan Çalhanoğlu, and Nicolò Barella have stepped up and played major roles in keeping Inter's top-four league bid afloat as well as spearheading Inter's likely run to the Champions League final.

Additionally, Inter could easily have been derailed after the World Cup. Despite being part of the Argentina team which claimed a first world title in 36 years, Lautaro was clearly a net negative for the Albiceleste. One could easily make the case that his greatest contribution to Argentina's victory was his abysmal performance against Saudi Arabia which caused him to get benched in favour of Manchester City striker Julián Álvarez for the rest of the tournament. Considering this fact, there were certainly questions about Lautaro's form following his return from Qatar. However, Lautaro went on to silence the doubters by returning to his pre-World Cup form as soon as he once again put on an Inter jersey.

Inter's Champions League success so far, unlike their title run 13 years ago, hasn't even been a product of tactical brilliance. While head coach Simone Inzaghi has shown a reasonable level of competence thus far, he is not even close to the highest echelon in which his opposite number in the final - either Real Madrid's Carlo Ancelotti or City's Pep Guardiola - will reside.

On the whole, not a lot about Inter's Champions League run thus far makes much sense on the surface; it has been nothing less than the epitome of "taking it one match at a time" - but will that be enough in the final? Porto, Benfica, and Milan are far from the toughest possible opponents that Inter could have faced. Real or City will be on a completely different level. Conventional wisdom dictates that Inter lack the star power to win it all - but conventional wisdom has been thrown out the window with Inter on the continental stage thus far. For all we know, the biggest twist could be just around the corner.

The Weekly Take, Issue 256: Back After a Decade

Real Sociedad all but punched their ticket to next season's Champions League with an impressive 2-0 La Liga victory over 10-man Real Madrid. Takefusa Kubo opened the scoring for the Basque club shortly after halftime. Real Madrid's task was made even more difficult when full-back Dani Carvajal was sent off after receiving a second yellow card. Five minutes before the end of regulation time, substitute Ander Barrenetxea scored another goal to clinch all three points for Real Sociedad. The result not only almost certainly sealed a top-four finish for Real Sociedad for the first time since the 2012-13 season; it also put Real Madrid at risk of being overtaken by cross-town arch-rivals Atlético Madrid for second place in the league.

The bulk of Real Sociedad's success this season can be traced to their outstanding off-season transfer window almost a year ago. Their signings of Brais Méndez and Kubo as well as their decision to make their loan signing of Alexander Sørloth a permanent one. have turned out to be masterstrokes.

Having left Celta after spending the first five seasons of his career in Galicia, midfielder Méndez is having a breakout season. Méndez has slotted seamlessly into Real Sociedad's midfield alongside Mikel Merino and veteran David Silva; his transfer fee of €14 million is starting to look like quite the bargain. Kubo, meanwhile, came to the Anoeta after spending three years on loan at other La Liga clubs from Real Madrid. The Japanese player looks like a player reborn after finally having found a permanent spot at a top-four La Liga club. At just 21, he has more than likely barely even scratched the surface of his potential and could go on to become one of the faces of Japanese football alongside compatriots Ritsu Dōan and Kaoru Mitoma.

Sørloth's level of play this season was not necessarily expected by most. Many would have thought that the Norwegian striker was simply not good enough for a club of this level, having managed just four league goals last season following an equally paltry result at RB Leipzig before that. Heading into the 2022-23 season, in three prior seasons at clubs in major European leagues, Sørloth had found the net just nine times over 79 league appearances. But this season, something clicked and he's now playing better than he has since his loan stint at Trabzonspor three years ago.

Ever since taking the position for the second time in the 2018-19 season, Real Sociedad head coach Imanol Alguacil has brought much stability and continuity to the club. Now helming the club for which he played for eight years, Alguacil has overseen the club's greatest period of success since its heyday in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Alguacil has turned this Real Sociedad team into one which would have a puncher's chance against just about anyone. The emphasis he has placed on possession and creation of high-quality chances is clearly generating results.

When the season began, there were questions about how Real Sociedad would fare due to the fact that Mikel Oyarzabal, the club's best player, tore his ACL near the end of the 2021-22 season. Real Sociedad's results fell off a cliff after Oyarzabal's injury - a somewhat ominous sign for this season. However, Real Sociedad have defied the critics and put together an impressive season which has somewhat gone under the radar. Furthermore, as is the case with the vast majority of players who have suffered a torn ACL, Oyarzabal has not been close to his prior level this season and quite possibly will never approach it again. In spite of this, Real Sociedad have adeptly overcome it to put together their best league campaign in a decade.

If Real Sociedad make the right moves in the coming off-season, it isn't out of the question that if things break the right way for them next season, they might challenge the oligopoly of Barcelona, Real Madrid, and Atlético as they push for a top-three finish. No club other than those three has finished in the top three of La Liga since Valencia in the 2011-12 season. What's more, since then every Spanish club which has risen to significant heights has fallen away soon after. It's too early to say, but perhaps Real Sociedad might be the team that breaks that streak.

The Weekly Take, Issue 255: Yet Another of Countless Milestones to Come

During this past matchday, the eyes of the football universe were glued to one match and one match only: the top-of-the-table Premier League clash between Manchester City and Arsenal at the Etihad Stadium. The winner of this match would gain a tremendous advantage in the race for the league title - arguably one which would be insurmountable.

In spite of all the hype that surrounded the match prior to opening kick-off, the match turned out to be extremely one-sided. Manchester City destroyed the Gunners in a 4-1 victory and in doing so, all but finished off what will surely go down as one of the all-time worst league title chokes on Arsenal's part; the North Londoners had a commanding eight-point lead over the Citizens earlier this season and seemed to be cruising to a first Premier League title in 19 years.

This match added yet another page to the already overflowing ledger of the transcendent generational phenomenon better known as Erling Haaland. The stoppage-time goal which the Norwegian striker scored took his Premier League goal tally to 33 this season - a record for a 38-game league season in the modern era. As if that weren't enough, City still have seven league matches yet to be played; just to top it all off, Haaland also had two assists in the victory against Arsenal.

To put this figure into perspective, Haaland's closest "challenger" (the quotation marks are there because the use of that word is rather generous) for the Premier League Golden Boot as well as the European Golden Shoe is Harry Kane of Tottenham Hotspur. Kane has racked up 24 goals after 33 Tottenham matches - an outstanding total by any measure. The true sign of Haaland's sheer greatness is that he has made Kane's season - one in which most people would otherwise be hailing as perhaps the best of his legendary career - a mere afterthought.

This is not even the most mind-boggling part of Haaland's utter domination of the Premier League as well as the Champions League in which he has already scored 12 goals prior to the tournament's semifinals. At just 22 years old, Haaland is likely five to seven years away from his absolute peak. Considering the fact that he is already dominating like this while still being on the rise, the idea of what Haaland will be like at his apex borders on the incomprehensible.

Haaland is by far the chief reason why City's chances of a Treble not only exist, but are even relatively substantial. Prior to this season, City had been in genuine contention for a Treble twice before: the 2018-19 and 2020-21 seasons. In 2018-19, City won the Premier League and FA Cup Double but lost to Tottenham in the Champions League quarterfinals by way of the away goals rule. Two years later, they would again win the domestic league; however, this time they would be beaten by Chelsea in both the FA Cup semifinals and Champions League final.

One key point about City's 2020-21 campaign in particular cannot be overlooked: the club's leading goalscorer was central midfielder İlkay Gündoğan, who finished the season with 13 league goals and 17 in all competitions. For a club at City's level - a genuine Champions League contender, a figure like that is simply too low. Had City even had one 30-goal or even 25-goal player in 2020-21, they could certainly have (arguably, would have) finished the season with all three major trophies in their possession.

It would, of course, be reductive to claim that all of City's success this season comes down to Haaland. There are so many factors that have played a role. That being said, the match against Arsenal confirmed what many people had already suspected but for whatever reason, had not openly said up to that point. It was clear that the biggest difference between the two teams and the primary reason why City will almost certainly win the league was none other than Erling Braut Haaland.

In the coming years, Haaland will almost assuredly score hundreds of goals, shatter record after record, and fill his trophy case to the brim. I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that we could be witnessing the rise of the player who might someday be regarded as perhaps the greatest centre-forward of all time.

The Weekly Take, Issue 254: Stuck in No Man's Land

A top-of-the-table La Liga match between Barcelona and Atlético Madrid ended up with Barça moving a step closer to what will almost certainly be another league title. The Catalan club's 1-0 victory ensured that their lead at the top of La Liga would remain at 11 points after the 30th matchday. Ferran Torres scored the only goal of the match shortly before halftime.

As for Atlético, they were handed yet another reality check in a season full of them. Atlético's loss left them 16 points adrift of Barça; it also caused them to lose further ground on cross-town rivals Real Madrid in the chase for second place in the league.

To say that Atlético have endured a season full of struggles would clearly be an understatement. Atlético were knocked out of the Champions League group stage for the first time since the 2017-18 season. They not only failed to advance to the round of 16; due to the fact that Atlético finished in last place in their group, it meant that they did not even qualify for a spot in the Europa League's round of 24. This also meant that Atlético would not be taking part in continental play after the halfway point of the season for the first time since the 2006-07 season - the last time they were not even involved in European football during a season.

Assuming Atlético end up falling even further adrift of the top of the league by the end of the season (as is almost certain to happen), they will finish this season's La Liga campaign further behind the eventual league champion than they have in any season since 2012-13 when they were 24 points behind Barça at season's end. To top it all off, they were knocked out by Real in the Copa del Rey quarterfinals.

A major reason for Atlético's situation right now has been their relative inaction in both transfer windows. This is somewhat surprising when one considers that Atlético have always been one of the most proactive clubs in the transfer market. In fact, they have built a reputation of replacing every star player who leaves with another one just like that. However, this certainly has not been the case this season. The most notable signing that Atlético have made this season is Dutch striker Memphis Depay, who was brought in during the January transfer window. However, he hasn't had the level of impact needed to take Atlético to the next level. Despite having played fairly well at Atlético thus far, Memphis has primarily come off the bench since his debut in red and white.

On a related note, the biggest problem that plagues Atlético right now is their lack of a consistent goal threat up front. Their leading goalscorer in the league right now is Antoine Griezmann with 11. Atlético have just 47 goals in 30 league matches - a figure not nearly enough if they are to seriously challenge for the league title. Even more worrying is the fact that of these 47 goals, 38 of them have been scored by players aged 28 or older. This is an aging team that is in dire need of a shake-up during the coming off-season.

I have previously mentioned how it could very well be the case that Atlético's time as one of European football's elite clubs might soon be ending as well as how the next off-season will be pivotal for the future of the club. However, the biggest domino of all could soon fall. There have been intensifying rumours surrounding the future of legendary head coach Diego Simeone and the possibility that he might step down. If he does not see a viable avenue for the club's return to the top table, this once-unthinkable scenario might just happen.

Without the financial might of rivals Barça and Real, Atlético Madrid's decade-plus as a bona fide football powerhouse has been nothing short of remarkable. However, for the first time in a long time, Atlético's future appears somewhat uncertain. This has been something of a "lost season" at the Wanda Metropolitano - but will it turn into more than just a single season? At this point, the path forward remains unclear - and that is never a good sign.

The Weekly Take, Issue 253: Closer to the Drought's End

AC Milan's 1-0 victory over Napoli in the first leg of their Champions League quarterfinal fixture sent a clear message to every other club in Europe: "we are back and we are legit".

Taking advantage of the absence of Napoli's superstar centre-forward Victor Osimhen, the Rossoneri scored the only goal of the match five minutes before half-time. Ismaël Bennacer scored his first career Champions League goal after receiving a pass from Brahim Díaz. In the second half, Milan received further help when André-Frank Zambo Anguissa received his marching orders after receiving his second yellow card. The victory put Milan on the cusp of their first Champions League semifinal since the 2006-07 seasons - the last time they won it all. Repeating the feat 16 years later would unquestionably be more impressive than any of the seven titles they have won to date.

Milan proved that their recent 4-0 Serie A victory over runaway league leaders Napoli was no fluke. From a tactical standpoint, Milan's counter-attacking tactics completely overwhelmed Gli Azzurri; Milan repeatedly restricted to shot attempts unlikely to result in a goal while creating several probable goal-scoring opportunities themselves. In fact, just a few minutes after Bennacer's goal, Milan could easily have made it 2-0, but centre-back Simon Kjær's header struck the crossbar.

The vibes around the red half of the San Siro are overwhelmingly different from those earlier in the season. Six months ago, Milan were coming off back-to-back Champions League losses to Chelsea. Across those two matches, Milan scored zero goals, conceded five, and collected nine yellow cards and one red - and all of this against the team generally considered to be the laughingstock of European football this season. Having been drawn against Chelsea, Red Bull Salzburg, and Dinamo Zagreb in Group E, Milan were widely expected to cruise into the round of 16; however, at this point their Champions League future was hanging in the balance. Things weren't going much better domestically, either. A slow start to the season saw the reigning Serie A champions lie fifth in the league after nine matches.

In due time, however, things began to change. Milan would soon reel off a sequence of 11 Serie A matches in which they would lose just one, climbing to second place in the league in the process. Dominant Champions League victories over Dinamo and Salzburg were followed by an impressive, resolute round of 16 victory over Tottenham Hotspur after the World Cup break.

Heading into both of their recent matches against Napoli, Milan had been favoured against neither of them. The first 4-0 victory at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona sent shockwaves throughout the football world, as Napoli had been the definition of "dominance" in their domestic play this season. Having once again risen to the occasion against the same opponents, this time on European football's biggest stage, Milan have proven that they do indeed have a puncher's chance to go all the way.

This could be the best chance at a Champions League title that Milan could have for quite some time. The other three teams which will almost certainly be the other semifinalists are Real Madrid, Manchester City, and Milan's cross-town arch-rivals Inter Milan. In the case of Milan's likely semifinal opponents Inter, derby matches are always a toss-up - especially when the pressure is at its highest. Should they survive that, they would go on to face Real or City in the final. This is the weakest Real team in several years. Domestically, they trail league leaders Barcelona by 13 points. City, meanwhile, have a history of underperforming in high-leverage Champions League matches. Although Milan would enter the final as the underdog regardless of their opponent, one would think that they would fancy their chances either way.

It wasn't all that long ago when the scenario in which AC Milan find themselves today seemed unthinkable. In the 2020 off-season, Milan had failed to qualify for the Champions League for seven consecutive seasons and had fallen as low as 10th in the league in 2014-15. Their rise back up the ranks has been as swift as their fall was all those years ago. Now, Milan stand just four matches away from the completion of the most remarkable renaissance that European football has seen in many years.