The Weekly Take, Issue 225: The Consequences of Two Fateful Decisions

The standout fixture of the latest Serie A matchday saw Juventus play against AS Roma at home. In a match which pitted two teams likely to challenge for top-four spots against each other, the spoils were shared in a 1-1 draw. Dušan Vlahović opened the scoring for Juve in the second minute, finding the back of the net with a free kick. Roma would later equalize by way of a second-half goal scored by Tammy Abraham.

Juve's start to this season has been rather pedestrian. This draw follows a goalless draw at home against Sampdoria in a match which should have been an opportunity for the Bianconeri to pick up an easy three points against a team which came close to relegation last season. Despite adding Paul Pogba, Bremer, and Filip Kostić to their roster during the off-season, Juve do not appear to have significantly improved. In both of the previous two seasons, Juve finished fourth and were barely able to clinch Champions League qualification. A similar result or perhaps even worse could be on the cards this season.

At the end of the 2019-20 season, no one could have foreseen the possibility of Juve being in this situation just a little over two years later. The Turin club had just won the Serie A title for the ninth consecutive season. However, in a shocking turn of events, head coach Maurizio Sarri was fired following an upset loss to Lyon in the round of 16 of the Champions League. No one saw this firing coming, especially because despite the early Champions League exit, Sarri had just led Juve to the Scudetto in just his first season on the touchlines at the Allianz Stadium.

Sarri would be replaced by Andrea Pirlo. This would turn out to be the move that arguably "nuked" Juve; Pirlo's utter incompetence in his one season in charge was almost unprecedented. He somehow managed to lead a team which was expected to win Serie A by an enormous margin to just fourth in the league. Juve only qualified for the Champions League because Cristiano Ronaldo's individual brilliance bailed Pirlo out time and again. Pirlo's abject failure in the position not only led to his firing at the end of the season; it also likely played a major role in Ronaldo's decision to return to Manchester United during the off-season of 2021.

The fallout of Sarri's firing and Pirlo's tenure continued into the 2021-22 season. Juve's total points tally of 70 was their lowest since the 2010-11 campaign when they amassed just 58 points and finished seventh in the league. In addition, Juve were knocked out of the Champions League in the round of 16 for the third consecutive season, losing 4-1 on aggregate to Villarreal.

Juve have been extremely busy in the transfer market in recent times. Even before the most recent off-season, Juve had made a major signing in Vlahović, having signed the Serbian striker for €70 million in January 2022. Since then, players such as Paulo Dybala, Matthijs de Ligt, Álvaro Morata, Giorgio Chiellini, and Dejan Kulusevski (on a loan deal) have left the club. While Juve have attempted to find suitable replacements for them, it is clear that AC and Inter Milan have since left Juve in the dust; it will likely be another year of struggle for the club which so recently had a stranglehold over Serie A.

One has to wonder how everything would have played out if Sarri had never been fired. Would Juve have won the past two league titles? Would Ronaldo still be in Turin? For that matter, might Juve have finally broken their Champions League drought dating back to 1996?

If club owner Andrea Agnelli had not hastily made those two decisions back in August 2020, we would likely be talking about Juventus in a very different light today. Instead, Juve find themselves playing catch-up - a position that, barring a major turnaround, will once again be familiar to them this season.

Every club goes through down periods from time to time; however, seldom is such a period triggered by one or two singular moments. Yet, that's exactly what has happened to Juve. When will they reclaim their spot at the pinnacle of Italian football? It could very well be years from now.

The Weekly Take, Issue 224: Seemingly Going Nowhere at All

At the end of the 2021-22 La Liga season, Real Sociedad appeared to be one step away from making a reasonable challenge for a top-four finish in the league and the Champions League qualification which would come with it. The Basque club finished sixth in the league and only missed on Champions League qualification due to an almost inexplicable mid-season slump which saw them pick up just two points in a six-match span. Outside of that slump, however, Real Sociedad provided as tough a challenge as just about any other top-four contender.

In spite of the optimism surrounding the club at the end of the season, Real Sociedad ended up failing to have the off-season for which they had been hoping. A total of 11 players left the club while only three arrived: Mohamed-Ali Cho, Brais Méndez, and Takefusa Kubo. None of those signings did much to move the needle - a fact that was laid bare in Real Sociedad's 4-1 loss against Barcelona. In this one-sided clash, Real Sociedad never stood a chance as Barça systematically took apart their opponents. Robert Lewandowski scored two goals to lead Barça to victory; one of those goals came as part of an 11-minute three-goal flurry in the second half.

When comparing Real Sociedad's off-season to those of their closest competitors, Real Sociedad can clearly be found wanting. Real Betis signed Luiz Henrique and Luiz Felipe while Villarreal added veteran winger José Luis Morales. However, the club of this level with the most productive off-season was by far Sevilla. Isco, Marcão, and Alex Telles arrived in Andalusia while Luuk de Jong returned from his loan stint at Barça.

The one area which Real Sociedad absolutely and unquestionably should have upgraded during the off-season was their attack. This was especially important in light of the fact that their best player and last season's leading goalscorer Mikel Oyarzabal tore his ACL in March. The injury is expected to keep Oyarzabal out of action until November. Considering the fact that Real Sociedad scored a dismal 40 league goals as a team last season, they could not afford to lose his production up front. None of their off-season signings are even remotely close to being reliable goalscoring threats, while it remains to be seen if Alexander Isak can return to his form of the 2020-21 season or if his paltry six-goal league tally last season is actually more reflective of his level.

If Real Sociedad struggle throughout this season and end up not even close to the top four, it could signal the end of not only Oyarzabal's time at the Anoeta, but Mikel Merino's as well. Both players are clearly good enough to make names for themselves at bigger and more renowned clubs, whether in Spain or elsewhere. Oyarzabal is 25 while Merino is 26 - both have time on their side should they choose to depart at season's end.

That being said, both players are from Real Sociedad's home region of the Basque Country, a place where residents take immense pride in regional identity - often, even more so than national citizenship. This is perhaps the main factor keeping the duo at the club; however, how long would this last if Real Sociedad were once again to be unable to make any progress in the league?

Real Sociedad's three matches before the break for the World Cup will be absolutely critical to their top-four hopes. They have a home stand against Betis and Valencia before an away match against Sevilla. Emerge from that unscathed and there is every chance that they will remain in the chase upon resumption of the league campaign. However, the real questions: will they remain unscathed and will they still be in contention at that point? It's far too early to tell, but the signs do not look good at the moment.

It has been a decade since Real Sociedad last qualified for the Champions League. Since then, they have had several near-misses; they have finished four of the past six league seasons in either fifth or sixth place. Unless something changes soon, it's very likely that this season, they will not even be able to achieve such a result; even a Europa League spot might end up being out of reach.

The Weekly Take, Issue 223: How Much Has Really Changed?

Over the past few months, it seemed as though Tottenham Hotspur were in the midst of transforming themselves into a genuine force. During the recent off-season, Tottenham added Ivan Perišić, Yves Bissouma, and most notably of all, Richarlison to their squad. A team which had been expected to be roughly on par with the likes of Manchester United as well as London rivals Arsenal and Chelsea had now appeared to have pulled clear of all three clubs. In just one off-season, Tottenham were now favoured to finish third in the Premier League and possibly make a Champions League run which might have turned out to be deeper than expected.

However, Tottenham might not actually have improved by all that much. This was shown as they were only able to manage a 2-2 draw in a feisty encounter against a Chelsea team who have thus far endured a dismal transfer window. Kalidou Koulibaly put Chelsea a goal ahead; the score remained 1-0 at halftime. After the break, Pierre-Emile Højbjerg would score an equalizing goal for Tottenham before Reece James restored the Blues' lead just 10 minutes later. Then, in the sixth minute of stoppage time, Harry Kane scored a controversial last-ditch goal to salvage a draw, bailing Tottenham out as he has done on countless occasions.

If anything, Tottenham were rather fortunate to leave Stamford Bridge with a point. Chelsea outplayed Tottenham for the vast majority of the match - they almost doubled Tottenham's possession, attempted far more shots, and dictated the pace of play throughout proceedings.

Tottenham's wing-back duo of Ryan Sessegnon and Emerson Royal were clearly not up to the challenge. Both were dominated by their Chelsea counterparts Ruben Loftus-Cheek and Marc Cucurella. Their sub-par performances were a major reason for Tottenham's difficulties in this London derby. Although both were correctly substituted, the question must still be asked about Sessegnon in particular: with Sergio Reguilón likely on his way out of Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, is Sessegnon really Tottenham's long-term answer as the starting right wing-back? The signs thus far do not appear promising.

Tottenham also did not have it their own way up front. Dejan Kulusevski and Son Heung-min played well below their usual standards; both had hardly any impact at all on the match. It is no coincidence that Tottenham's overall level of play significantly improved upon Richarlison's entry.

The introduction of Richarlison to the team does, however, pose one other problem: that of the positional logjam. Assuming Richarlison becomes a regular starter, one of Kulusevski, Rodrigo Bentancur, or Højbjerg will likely have to be moved to the bench unless head coach Antonio Conte adjusts his tactics accordingly. Conte is unlikely to change his 3-4-2-1 formation with which he has used to tremendous success throughout his coaching career. Thus, he is walking something of a tactical tightrope as he proceeds.

An in-house incident which took place earlier this week may have destabilized the team ahead of the match. Conte publicly announced that four players (Reguilón, Tanguy Ndombele, Harry Winks, and Giovani Lo Celso) who Tottenham were seeking to offload would no longer be attending training sessions with the rest of the team. Though the move in and of itself was understandable, one must question what exactly there was to gain by announcing it publicly. After all, doing so would not serve to increase any of those players' transfer values; it would also cause a general feeling of unease to develop among the players.

Before this match, I would have said that Tottenham fans could be reasonably optimistic about their club's prospects this season. Now, though, it appears that they have only marginally improved from last season. That being said, they have not yet added Richarlison as a regular starter. The Brazilian striker may very well turn out to be the catalyst to a coming ascent.

There's obviously more than enough time for Tottenham Hotspur to separate themselves from the chasing pack and firmly establish themselves in the Premier League's top three. That said, it has now clearly been shown that doing so won't be all that straightforward. Only time will tell if Tottenham rise to the occasion or pull a "classic Tottenham" and perhaps miss out on a top-four spot entirely.

The Weekly Take, Issue 222: Powering Through Adversity

To say that the past off-season has been a difficult one for Borussia Dortmund would be a grave understatement. Chief among the reasons for this is the sale of Erling Haaland to Manchester City for the almost impossibly low transfer fee of €60 million. The word "travesty" does not even come close to adequately define allowing a generational talent like Haaland - one who will almost certainly become one of the all-time greats - for that price.

Dortmund would later be dealt another setback. Soon after signing Sébastien Haller from Ajax, ostensibly to serve as Haaland's replacement up front, the Ivorian striker would be diagnosed with testicular cancer. Certainly, Die Schwarzgelbe's preparation for their Bundesliga season-opener against Bayer Leverkusen did not lend itself well to peak performance. Many Dortmund fans, myself included, would not have been all that surprised to have seen Dortmund succumb to a one-sided loss.

However, Dortmund emerged from the match with a 1-0 victory. Club captain Marco Reus scored the only goal; however, the player who deservedly earned the most plaudits was Gregor Kobel. The Swiss goalkeeper twice prevented Patrik Schick from putting Leverkusen on the board with close-range shots.

Much like Dortmund's entire off-season, "overcoming adversity" was the theme of this match. Striker Karim Adeyemi had to leave the match after 23 minutes after injuring his big toe, while defender Nico Schlotterbeck suffered an injury of his own but was able to play through it. On the field, Leverkusen also managed to put the ball into the net twice more, but neither goal stood as both were waived off for offside.

Though this may have been just the first match of the new league season, if Dortmund can continue playing like this throughout the remainder of the campaign, they should find themselves firmly in contention for second place in the league behind Bayern when the season ends. Right from the opening whistle, it was clear that Dortmund were playing as though they had a point to prove to the rest of the league. Ultimately, that had a great deal to do with the outcome of the match. Dortmund's sheer grit and resolve made all the difference as they not only claimed all three points; they did so at the expense of one of their closest league rivals.

Much like almost every season for the past decade, Dortmund will almost certainly be reduced to mere onlookers as far as the Bundesliga title is concerned - Bayern Munich will, barring a nearly improbable sequence of events, win the league by an enormous margin while also being the league's only genuine contender to bring the Champions League trophy to Germany. However, the race is well and truly on behind them. Dortmund, Leverkusen, Union Berlin, RB Leipzig, and arguably even Freiburg will likely be locked in a dogfight for next season's last three Champions League berths.

Having taken over from Marco Rose as Dortmund head coach, Edin Terzić was always going to have his work cut out for him. In any case, though, it does seem as though he understands how this team ought to be playing - after all, Terzić does have insider knowledge. He had already been working for Dortmund in various minor coaching roles since 2018.

It may be somewhat of a cliché by now, but it's no less true - the ability to "win ugly" is one of the most important traits in football. Dortmund displayed exactly that at Signal Iduna Park. In spite of everything that had been happening on the pitch as well as off it, Dortmund dug deep and gutted it out. That's exactly what they need to continue doing against the league's other top-four contenders.

Now that Haaland has left, Dortmund can no longer depend on star power to carry them over the line as they had previously been able to. This season will be a true test of this Dortmund team's resolve; however, the signs after this first match are positive indeed. This is exactly the type of start to the season they needed - what more amidst these circumstances.

On the surface, it may just have been a 1-0 win over another their fellow North Rhine-Westphalia club, but in the grand scheme of things, it could yet come to mean so much more.

The Weekly Take, Issue 221: Already Surplus to Requirements

Paris Saint-Germain added another name to their defensive corps by bringing RB Leipzig right-back Nordi Mukiele to his hometown club for €10 million. PSG signed Mukiele on a five-year contract which came after he had spent four years in Saxony.

Despite the relatively low transfer fee, this move is a somewhat strange one on PSG's part. It is difficult to picture just how Mukiele would fit into this team and its dynamics. Additionally, PSG's starting right-back, Achraf Hakimi, is arguably one of the top three in the world at that position. Barring a major injury or a sudden major slump, Hakimi will not be leaving his spot in the starting line-up any time soon.

Mukiele is also unlikely to get much playing time at his secondary position of centre-back. Presnel Kimpembe and Marquinhos are vastly superior players and thus will almost certainly avoid being unseated. It isn't as though PSG are lacking as far as backup defenders are concerned, either. Abdou Diallo, Sergio Ramos, Juan Bernat, and Thilo Kehrer form one of the better defensive second units in world football.

PSG's acquisition of Mukiele is yet another example of the club "missing the forest for the trees" in the transfer window. The main area of concern was clearly central midfield; Georginio Wijnaldum is simply not good enough as a regular starter if a club is to have a realistic chance of winning the Champions League. While PSG did sign Vitinha for €41.5 million, it would likely have been a wiser move on their part to have held off on both the Vitinha and Mukiele signings and instead used the money they spent on both transfers to bring in an even better central midfielder. Players such as Mikel Merino, Marcos Llorente, and Matheus Nunes would have likely been better uses of the money that PSG spent.

Additionally, this move is likely to stymie Mukiele's own development as a player. At 24, he had almost certainly not yet reached his absolute peak level. He had already begun to make a name for himself at the Red Bull Arena prior to his transfer. However, his likely lack of playing time at PSG will probably guarantee that he will leave some, if not much, of his potential unfulfilled when he reaches what would ordinarily have been his best years.

To make matters worse, Mukiele joined PSG - the club with a bigger reputation for choking than any other. This mentality has permeated the entire team to such an extent that it makes one wonder if even they truly believe that they are Champions League-winning material. Being at a club like that will undoubtedly have a negative effect on a player who is at the career stage where Mukiele is now.

In spite of their eye-watering wealth, PSG's follies in the transfer window have come back to bite them time and again. This is another key reason why year after year, PSG come up short in the Champions League. From spending a record-breaking transfer fee on Neymar and then attempting to build a team around him to bringing in a version of Lionel Messi well past his prime to signing Mauro Icardi for almost no reason at all - it seems as though every good move PSG make in the transfer market is followed by a bad one.

It can even be argued that PSG were too quick to offload players such as Lucas Moura and Gonçalo Guedes. Both have gone on to experience success at other clubs; this might actually be the best-case scenario for Mukiele as far as his career progression is concerned. Do not be surprised if Mukiele is loaned out before too long.

Is it still possible that this transfer could end up turning out for the best? Of course it is - after all, we've seen more unlikely success stories before. However, based on the evidence to date, the chances of Mukiele's stint at PSG being a positive one are relatively low.

Sometimes, when a young player signs for a new club, it comes with a feeling of "and that's the last we ever heard from him again at this level". Sadly for PSG fans, that's exactly the vibe that this signing has provided.

The Weekly Take, Issue 220: Deflation Has Arrived

In a transfer which not many would have seen coming, Lyon signed Argentine left-back Nicolás Tagliafico from Ajax on a three-year contract. Tagliafico left the Dutch capital after spending four-and-a-half seasons at the Johan Cruyff Arena. During this stint which was highlighted by an underdog run to the 2018-19 Champions League semifinals, Tagliafico established himself as one of the more underrated full-backs in world football and became the starter at that position for his country.

With these facts in mind, it is astonishing to think that Lyon signed Tagliafico for just €4.2 million. One would ordinarily have expected a player of his level to have gone for somewhere in the range of €20 to €30 million.

Those who have been paying attention to the current transfer window will note that Tagliafico's transfer for such a low fee appears to be part of a trend. Transfer fees appear to be dropping all at once. Already in this off-season's transfer window, we have seen Erling Haaland sign for Manchester City from Borussia Dortmund for €60 million, Sadio Mané join Bayern Munich for €32 million following his departure from Liverpool, and Robert Lewandowski acquired by Barcelona from Bayern for €45 million. Clearly, the average transfer fee is on the decline. But why is this so and why has it begun to happen so suddenly?

While no one has outright confirmed or denied anything, I do have two theories regarding this. The first is the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and its associated lockdowns. For many months, clubs missed out on much revenue through lost ticket sales when fan attendance was either banned or limited. This lost revenue made a dent in every club's finances, making many of them less willing to shell out the big money to sign players.

It is somewhat ironic that while Covid-19 served to exacerbate inflation for the everyday person, the inverse appears to be true as far as transfer fees are concerned. However, the pandemic alone does not explain the sudden movement of multiple superstars for essentially discount prices.

This is where the second factor comes in: player empowerment. The term "player empowerment" originated from the NBA but is equally applicable to describe this growing phenomenon in European football. There is more player empowerment with regard to players controlling their own transfer destiny than there has ever been in football history.

Consider the case of Haaland, for example. If Haaland had played 20 or even 10 years ago, it would not have been particularly likely for Dortmund to have dealt him to City at that point of his career, let alone for a transfer fee worth about half of his expected transfer value. However, dissatisfied with the situation at Signal Iduna Park, Haaland played an active role in engineering his departure from Dortmund. This also served to drive his own transfer market value down; Dortmund would have been less inclined to play hardball with regard to a player who clearly wanted to leave.

When combining the effects of the pandemic and player empowerment, it should not be all that surprising that transfer fee values have slumped this off-season. However, those who would hail such an occurrence as a harbinger of greater parity in European football would be sorely mistaken. The clubs which have made an absolute killing in this transfer window have been many of the usual suspects: City, Bayern, Barça. Bayern might not even be done yet - they are reportedly considering making a move for Tottenham striker Harry Kane.

Ever since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, the phrases "unprecedented times" and "new normal" have been thrown around on countless occasions. However, in the context of transfer fees, the two phrases are diametrically opposed - it remains to be seen if transfer fees will end up stabilizing at this level or if this dip is an outlier. If these lower transfer fees do end up being the "new normal", it will fundamentally alter how every club approaches future transfer windows in their pursuit of desired players.

In any case, the trend exists now, and that only means one thing: expect more of the unexpected over the rest of this transfer window, and thus the season itself when play begins next month.

The Weekly Take, Issue 219: The Finishing Touches to an Iconic Career

Robert Lewandowski has achieved just about everything possible over the course of his legendary football career. A two-time European Golden Shoe winner who was unjustly denied the Ballon d'Or in 2020 after leading Bayern Munich to the Champions League title in that year, Lewandowski ranks second among all Bundesliga goalscorers in league history with 312. The Pole scored 238 of those for Bayern including a mind-boggling 41 in the 2020-21 season.

Lewandowski has now begun what might be the final stages of his career by agreeing to sign for Barcelona for a transfer fee of €50 million. Lewandowski signed a three-year contract with an option for a further one-year extension. While the transfer fee may initially seem unusually low, the reality is that at 33, it remains uncertain just how many prime years Lewandowski has remaining. That being said, if Lewandowski can remain at an elite level for two to three more years, Barça are set to be a leading contender for Champions League titles during the entirety of that timespan.

Lewandowski's arrival at Camp Nou further strengthens an already stacked attack. Ferran Torres, Ansu Fati, a rejuvenated Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, and Lewandowski's fellow new arrival Raphinha already make Barça's frontline one of the most potent in world football. The addition of Lewandowski might just give Barça the undisputed best attacking unit on the planet.

Last season, Barça were not even close to winning the league. Although they finished second behind arch-rivals Real Madrid, Barça were second by the enormous margin of 13 points. One key reason for this was their relative lack of a goalscoring threat. In the 2021-22 season, Barça's leading goalscorer in La Liga was Memphis Depay (who is likely to leave the club himself during this off-season) with 12. To put this figure into perspective, Aubameyang came to Catalonia during the mid-season transfer window and had 11 in the league, almost matching Depay's full-season tally. In total, Barça scored just 68 league goals to Real's 80.

This will almost certainly change with Lewandowski in the starting line-up. Of particular note will be Fati's performance if, as expected, he once again becomes a regular starter following his recovery from a torn ACL. It is widely believed that Fati's playstyle is an excellent complement to that of Lewandowski. Should this turn out to be the case, expect another massive goal tally from the Pole - perhaps a third consecutive Golden Shoe could await.

At this point, the only "criticism" that could conceivably be levelled at Lewandowski is the (baseless) claim that "he would never be able to do it in a league other than the Bundesliga". However, those who would claim this are ignoring the fact that this isn't just any player. This is one of the greatest centre-forwards of all time. When Lewandowski is in top form, he is one of the most unstoppable offensive forces to ever step onto a football pitch and will torch any defensive scheme thrown at him.

An underrated yet almost as important element of Lewandowski's arrival at Barça will be his intangible impact on the club's younger players - some of whom may once have idolized him. It's certainly a possibility that promising youngsters such as Fati, Torres, and Pedri might raise their game simply by being in the presence of a legend like Lewandowski every day. It could be because they would not want to let him down or perhaps avoid looking bad in front of him, but either way, these effects cannot be understated and could play key roles in driving Barça towards a first Champions League title since 2015.

Of course, there is one key way in which this transfer could end up backfiring. As was mentioned earlier, Lewandowski is now 33. He is at an age when most strikers begin to decline - some much more dramatically than others. If Lewandowski ends up being one of them, Barça might just end up worse off compared to where they were before.

That being said, Lewandowski is in no way just "any ordinary striker". When a player like Lewandowski is there for the taking, any club with the means to do so should make the move. Barça have done just that and are thus likely to reap the rewards.

It looks as though fun times at Camp Nou lie ahead.