The Weekly Take, Issue 194: The Empire's Collapse Is Complete

AC Milan and Juventus both dropped crucial points in their respective quests for the Serie A title and a Champions League qualification spot with a 0-0 draw in a crucial league match. It was a match which was reflective of the final score - obvious chances were rare and both teams lacked the killer touch on the offensive end. Juve can count themselves rather fortunate to have escaped San Siro with a point after failing to register even one shot on target.

Nevertheless, the result leaves Juve in fifth place in the league, 11 points behind leaders Inter Milan but having played an additional match. This means that if the season were to end today, Juve would fail to qualify for next season's Champions League. If Juve were to remain outside the top four at season's end, it would be the first time in 11 years that the Bianconeri would miss out on Europe's leading club tournament.

Juve's collapse over the past two seasons has been stunning to witness. During the period spanning the 2011-12 and 2019-20 seasons, Juve won the Serie A title every single time, often by massive margins. They also won four Coppa Italia titles and reached the final of the Champions League in 2015 and 2017, losing to Real Madrid and Barcelona respectively.

The point of origin of Juve's collapse can easily be pinpointed: the firing of former head coach Maurizio Sarri at the end of the 2019-20 season. Juve had just come off an upset loss at the hands of Lyon in the Champions League. In a move that few saw coming, Sarri was forced out of the club the very next day and replaced by Andrea Pirlo. This would prove to be a catastrophic move as in his one season in charge at Allianz Stadium, Pirlo would turn in one of the worst single-season coaching performances of the last decade. Despite inheriting a loaded team, Pirlo somehow managed to take Juve to a highly disappointing fourth-place finish in the league. He also presided over a last-16 Champions League exit and was deservedly fired at season's end.

The return of Massimiliano Allegri to the Juve dugout at the beginning of this season temporarily brought some optimism. However, it soon became clear that the problems at Juve extended far beyond the identity of the head coach. Juve stumbled out of the gates this season, dropping cheap points left, right, and centre. Despite topping their Champions League group, their upcoming round of 16 tie against Villarreal will by no means be straightforward.

Allegri's tactics in his second stint in charge of Juve have also been questionable on many occasions. His decision to deploy Adrien Rabiot as a winger has been a real head-scratcher, while his midfield pairings in his 4-4-2 formation which combine any duo of Weston McKennie, Manuel Locatelli, Rodrigo Bentancur, and Federico Bernardeschi are clearly not working. It can even be argued that the very fact that Allegri favours a 4-4-2 formation is suspect; this formation is considered to be outdated and obsolete by most.

Additionally, Juve made an inexcusable error in the transfer window of the previous off-season by failing to account for the departure of Cristiano Ronaldo. This left them with Álvaro Morata, Paulo Dybala, and Moise Kean as their primary strikers. As was so clearly shown against Milan, Juve have unsurprisingly struggled up front all season long. With the two-thirds mark of the season approaching, the Turin club have found the net a meagre 34 times over 23 league matches. To put this figure in perspective, Juve score fewer goals per league match than do clubs such as Leicester City, Valencia, 1. FC Köln, and Eintracht Frankfurt - not exactly the most distinguished of company.

It's still too early to write the obituary on Juve's season, of course. However, the way things are going, the future does not look good for Juventus at all. This doesn't just apply to the rest of this season - it could be years before Juve are once again a genuine contender for domestic or continental titles. There seems to be no end in sight to their woes.

The powerhouse that was built over so many seasons has clearly been brought down in just one. A long, long rebuild seems likely.

The Weekly Take, Issue 193: Back to Haunt Them Again

Manchester City's almost-complete dominance of the Premier League continued when they beat Chelsea 1-0 during the most recent league matchday. This time, it was a player once rejected by Chelsea who came back to strike another blow against his former club.

Kevin De Bruyne scored the only goal of the match to clinch the victory for the Citizens. City's victory extended their lead at the summit of the Premier League to 11 points. On the other hand, the Blues' loss saw them surrender second place in the league to Liverpool, who beat Brentford 3-0.

Even to this day, it remains almost inconceivable how Chelsea managed to let a generational talent like De Bruyne slip through their fingers. The Belgian's first season as a Chelsea player in 2012-13 was spent on loan at Werder Bremen. While in northern Germany, De Bruyne clearly established himself as a star of the future. The Belgian was named the Bundesliga's Young Player of the Year after almost single-handedly saving the club from relegation at the age of just 21.

Inexplicably, Chelsea took absolutely no notice of this and almost never fielded him after his return to Stamford Bridge. De Bruyne would feature in just three league matches during the first half of the 2013-14 season before being signed by VfL Wolfsburg for €22 million in January 2014. It would be at Wolfsburg where De Bruyne would emerge as a bona fide superstar. He was selected as the Bundesliga's Player of the Year in 2014-15 after leading Wolfsburg to second place in the league - their best finish since their astonishing league triumph in 2008-09. De Bruyne was also the driving force behind Wolfsburg's first-ever DFB-Pokal title in that same season.

Not long after, City came for De Bruyne's services and signed him for €75 million. The rest, as they say, is history. Almost seven years later, De Bruyne has now become a true City legend - easily one of the Manchester club's five best players ever with an argument for #1. He is rightly recognized as one of the best playmakers in the world not only today, but also of all time. To top it all off, De Bruyne has even arguably surpassed former Chelsea teammate Eden Hazard as the greatest Belgian player ever.

Chelsea's failure to retain De Bruyne is absolutely inexcusable. After being presented with the evidence of what he'd done in his one season on loan at Werder, it should have been obvious that De Bruyne was "that guy". For some reason, however, Chelsea chose to ignore the proof and left him behind Oscar, Willian, and André Schürrle in the pecking order. None of those players ever ended up being even close to De Bruyne's level. Undoubtedly, Chelsea's decision to give up on De Bruyne in 2014 has to go down as one of the all-time transfer fails.

Astonishingly, just a few months after De Bruyne's departure, Chelsea would repeat the same error with his compatriot. Over the preceding two seasons, Romelu Lukaku had established himself as a legitimate goalscoring threat in the Premier League. Lukaku had just finished a season on loan at Everton, where he had amassed double figures in the goals column for the second time. Nevertheless, Chelsea deemed him to be surplus to requirements and made his spot at Everton a permanent one. Lukaku would later go on to become one of the world's best centre-forwards, culminating in a victorious Serie A campaign with Inter Milan in 2020-21. Ironically, Lukaku has since returned to the London club, only to enter the worst slump of his career to date.

To be fair to Chelsea, they are run much better today than they were three or four years ago. It is much less likely that the Chelsea of today would have failed to see De Bruyne's potential the way that the Chelsea of back then did. However, every new page that De Bruyne continues to add to his story only serves to rub it in even more - the only two words that come to mind are "what if".

There are some mistakes that never truly leave a club because of how utterly monumental in scope they are. Despite what Chelsea have already accomplished in the years since De Bruyne's departure, no one can dispute that every time he comes back to haunt them, it was entirely of their own doing.

The Weekly Take, Issue 192: Fizzling Out After a Hot Start

Napoli began the 2021-22 season in molten-hot form, winning their first eight Serie A matches and surging into first place in the league. At that point, it somewhat felt as though Gli Azzurri were fated to win their first league title since 1990, given the fact that this was their first complete season since the tragic death of Diego Maradona just over a year ago. The Argentine was not only arguably the greatest player of all time; he was also by far Napoli's greatest and most iconic player. As such, one might have expected the team to become more driven than ever before to "win it for Diego".

However, since then, their blistering early-season form has petered out. This was evidenced in a 1-1 draw against Juventus, a result which extended a dismal run of form in the league. Dries Mertens put Napoli ahead midway through the first half, but Federico Chiesa's equalizer ensured that the Bianconeri would put yet another dent in their Campanian rivals' league title bid.

With that result, Napoli now lie six points behind league leaders Inter Milan despite having played one additional match. Even more alarmingly, over their past nine league matches, Napoli have collected just two wins and amassed a mere nine points, allowing both Inter as well as AC Milan to overtake them and almost certainly guarantee that the Scudetto will stay in the city of Milan barring a remarkable turn of events in the following months.

Napoli's form in European competition has also been less than stellar. Drawn into what should have been a relatively simple Europa League group containing Spartak Moscow, Leicester City, and Legia Warsaw, Napoli could only finish second in Group C. They lost out on top spot to Spartak on head-to-head record and thus missed out on a direct round of 16 spot. This also means that in what would be a significant shock, Napoli could very well end up exiting the tournament in the round of 24. They have been drawn against Barcelona in that round; despite Barça's struggles this season, they will nevertheless prove to be difficult opposition for Luciano Spalletti's team.

It will only get more difficult for Napoli in the coming weeks. Three of the club's players have departed for Cameroon to represent their countries at the 2021 Africa Cup of Nations. Crucially, two of them are among Napoli's most important players: Senegalese defender Kalidou Koulibaly and Cameroonian midfielder André-Frank Zambo Anguissa. In the duo's absence, Napoli will have to find some way to rediscover their early season form; Atalanta and Juve are nipping at Napoli's heels in the chase for the final two of Serie A's four Champions League qualification spots. Any further slip-ups will almost certainly be punished.

In the ongoing January transfer window, Napoli should seriously consider acquiring a proven goalscorer. At the halfway point of the current Serie A season, Dries Mertens is Napoli's leading goalscorer with six league goals as of this post. This is worrying for two reasons: 1) it is alarmingly low figure for a club's leading scorer at this point of the season and 2) Mertens is 34. The attacking players who are in their prime have not been racking up the goals as one would expect. This lack of firepower up front has become increasingly evident in recent weeks; Napoli have scored just two goals over their last four league matches.

Napoli's lack of activity in the off-season transfer window has also come back to bite them. The only money they spent on transfers last summer was on Anguissa when they brought him in from Fulham; even that money was merely one of the requirements of a loan deal. While Napoli aren't necessarily as loaded with cash as are some of the other leading Serie A clubs, the absolute pittance they spent on transfers is inexcusable for a club at this level which intends to compete for domestic and European silverware.

There's certainly still time for Napoli to turn it around. However, considering the facts that this season's Serie A was poised to have one of the most open and hard-fought title races ever and that Napoli were among the favourites to win the Europa League, it's starting to feel as though after their blazing start, Napoli might just find themselves experiencing something of a "lost season".

The Weekly Take, Issue 191: An Extremely Costly Loss

The battle for the last two of La Liga's four Champions League qualification spots could scarcely be more hotly-contested. As of this post, nine teams spanning from Real Betis in third place to Espanyol in 11th are separated by just seven points. Two of these nine teams faced off during the most recent La Liga matchday, with Atlético Madrid snapping a four-match losing streak by beating cross-town rivals Rayo Vallecano 2-0. Ángel Correa's brace was enough to help Atlético leapfrog Rayo; the win put Atlético on 32 points to Rayo's 30.

With half of the season having already elapsed, Rayo are on course for the most successful league campaign in the club's history. Their previous best league finish was eighth; this occurred in the 2012-13 season. This fact is especially impressive given the fact that Rayo were only just promoted from the Segunda División at the end of last season after beating Girona in a two-legged playoff final.

Rayo's surge up the league table this season has also come without anyone even close to being a true superstar. By far the biggest name on their squad is Radamel Falcao. The Colombian veteran arrived at the Campo de Fútbol de Vallecas via a free transfer from Galatasaray during the off-season. However, he is the biggest name in fame only; this is backed up by the fact that he only has four league starts thus far this season.

The key figures behind Rayo's success this season have been players such as Óscar Trejo, Isi Palazón, Stole Dimitrievski, Alejandro Catena, and Santi Comesaña. They have proven to be able to give anyone a tough match on any given day; this was most clearly shown back in October when they beat Barcelona 1-0.

Rayo have also turned their stadium into a veritable fortress. Of the nine league home matches which Rayo have played up to this point, they have won eight. The only one which they did not win was a goalless draw against Celta Vigo. Rayo are not merely beating opponents at home; they are crushing their opposition. They are winning their home matches by an average of two goals.

That being said, this unexpected success has forced Rayo to re-evaluate their objectives for this season. Rayo now find themselves right in the midst of a highly competitive race for the top four. With this in mind, this was a match which they absolutely could not afford to lose, especially given the fact that reigning league champions Atlético were in an alarming slump prior to the all-Madrid clash.

It should also be noted that the corollary of Rayo's incredible home form is their dismal away form; it is the reason why they are only in sixth place in the league at the moment. Their loss against Atlético meant that from the 10 away matches they have played thus far, Rayo have collected a meagre five points. If Rayo end up failing to qualify for next season's Champions League, it seems more than likely that their poor play on the road will be the main culprit.

Rayo's lack of experience in this situation might also go on to be their undoing. As was mentioned, never in the club's history have Rayo been this close to Europe's leading club competition. Some of the other clubs involved in this dogfight include Atlético and Barça who are usually title contenders but are having down years this season. Also in the hunt for Champions League spots are Valencia, Villarreal, and Real Sociedad - all teams with considerable experience in top-four chases. Thus, it should not come as all that much of a surprise if the pressure were eventually to make Rayo crumble.

None of this, of course, should take anything away from what Rayo have already accomplished. In the first half of this La Liga season, Rayo have been successful beyond even what their most devoted fans could ever have imagined.

However, now that Rayo Vallecano know where in the league they truly stand, they now have to gird their loins for an almighty push for a Champions League spot. Unfortunately for them, their loss to Atlético was not only highly costly in the moment; it might signify the moment when their top-four challenge began to unravel. That being said, it's still clearly up for grabs; however, Rayo are by no means likely to clinch a historic Champions League berth.

The Weekly Take, Issue 190: The Blue Machine Rolls On

Boxing Day matches are an iconic staple of every Premier League season, and the standout fixture on that day in the 2021-22 campaign featured Manchester City hosting Leicester City.

In an astonishing match that included nine goals, two penalties, and an improbable comeback effort that fell just short, Manchester City hung on for a 6-3 victory despite almost blowing a four-goal lead. Kevin De Bruyne, Riyad Mahrez, İlkay Gündoğan, and Raheem Sterling put the Citizens 4-0 ahead well before halftime. However, after the break, Leicester reduced the deficit to 4-3 within 20 minutes of the restart. In the end, two further goals from Aymeric Laporte and Sterling ensured that Manchester City would have their ninth consecutive league victory, keeping daylight between themselves and closest rivals Liverpool.

Over the past few seasons, City's dominance of the Premier League has become almost routine. Since the 2017-18 season, City have won the league three times in four years, with their second-place finish behind Liverpool in 2019-20 beginning to look more and more like an aberration. During these four seasons, City have averaged a barely believable 91 points per season and are on pace to have 94 this time around.

What arguably makes City's success even more remarkable is the fact that they're doing this without a true focal point up front. At this point, Sterling and Bernardo Silva are City's leading goalscorers despite having just seven apiece. This may very well be the truest form of head coach Pep Guardiola's style of play manifesting itself - one which reached its apex during his four years in charge of a dynastic Barcelona team.

Guardiola's tactics also seem to have benefited certain players who have shown a great deal of improvement this season such as Phil Foden, João Cancelo, and perhaps most notably, Rodri. The Spanish midfielder is currently playing at a level far beyond any he has attained until now.

This is a team in which every piece seems to fit almost perfectly. Though City might not have any of the five or arguably even 10 best players on the planet, they have an absolute laundry list of players ranging from "very solid" to "elite". When we talk about how this City team was built, we tend to focus on the enormous amount of money brought in by club owner Sheikh Mansour. However, we must give him credit where it is due - unlike several other billionaire owners (some of whom we can easily think; no names will be given, though), he actually seems to attend to the team's personnel needs and act accordingly. Most of City's big-money signings have also proven to have been worth the massive outlays (and then some, in certain cases).

All this having been mentioned, it will be interesting to see how City handle the Champions League when it resumes in February, as it has always been on European football's biggest stage that things have historically begun to go wrong for the Manchester club. That being said, they did reach last season's final, only to fall to Chelsea in the showpiece match. City will resume their Champions League campaign against Sporting CP - a fixture which they should have absolutely no trouble winning. After that, it will be revealed whether last season's deep run was the anomaly or the new norm for a City team which would have finally figured out continental play. That being said, the fact that City topped a group which included Paris Saint-Germain is certainly a good sign.

The main question, ultimately, has to be this: is this peak City or do they have another level which they have not yet unlocked? As great as City are right now, one can't help but shake the feeling that City's current level might not be able to land them the coveted Premier League/Champions League double.

That being said, City have shown ruthless efficiency all season long and are the clear favourites to land a fourth Premier League title in five seasons. Yet somehow, Manchester City almost seem underrated - perhaps they are now at the point at which many just take their dominant level of play, especially on the domestic front, for granted.

Though there's still half a season to be played, another league title seems likely to be heading to the Etihad Stadium.

The Weekly Take, Issue 189: Stepping Into Uncharted Territory

Sevilla consolidated their position as Real Madrid's closest challengers for this season's La Liga title by beating the slumping Atlético Madrid 2-1. Ivan Rakitić's seventh-minute opener for Sevilla was cancelled out by an equalizer scored by Felipe. However, Lucas Ocampos would ensure that Los Rojiblancos would leave with all three points.

Sevilla's victory kept them in second place in La Liga, five points behind leaders Real. If Sevilla maintain their current pace, this might turn out to be the Andalusian club's finest league season in well over half a century.

The last time Sevilla won La Liga was in the 1945-46 season, while the last time they even finished in the top two was in 1956-57. Yet, that could all change this season. No team has gained more from the sudden declines of perennial title contenders Atlético and Barcelona than have Sevilla.

The bulk of Sevilla's success this season has come on the strength of their impressive defense. With just 12 goals conceded in 17 league matches, they are currently tied for second in this statistic among all the clubs of Europe's four major leagues. Their starting back four of Gonzalo Montiel, Marcos Acuña, Diego Carlos, and Jules Koundé as well as goalkeeper Bono have emerged as one of the most stifling backlines in world football - and a highly underrated one at that.

Now in his third season in the dugout at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, head coach Julen Lopetegui has also turned his reputation almost completely around. Prior to taking the job at Sevilla in 2019, Lopetegui was best known for his ill-fated stints in charge of the Spanish national team and subsequently Real. His selection for the position at Sevilla was greeted with skepticism from many. However, he has thoroughly silenced the doubters since then by leading Sevilla to back-to-back Champions League berths and a Europa League title. He has also been a key reason why Sevilla have been able to keep pace in what could so easily have turned out to be a one-sided title race.

Sevilla are already in the midst of their best era since the 1940s and 1950s. Over the past eight seasons, they have qualified for the Champions League five times, reaching the quarterfinals in the 2017-18 season. They have also won four Europa League titles and reached the final of the Copa del Rey twice. However, all of these would pale in comparison to the significance that a first league title in 75 years would bring.

On paper, this would seem to be an extremely tough ask, given the star power and financial might that Real possess. However, it isn't impossible - a five-point gap can easily be overcome, especially with so many matches still to be played. All it would take for Sevilla to claim an edge in the title race is one short slump on Real's part - something that could happen to any team at any time.

The upcoming January transfer window will be crucial towards Sevilla's title push. Sevilla currently have neither a true playmaker nor a major goalscoring threat. These points are evidenced by the following facts: Rafa Mir is their leading goalscorer in the league with just five goals, while Acuña leads the club in league assists with three. Bear in mind that almost half the season has already been played; on a per-match basis, these figures do not hold up well at all. Sevilla thus ought to prioritize offensive output during the next transfer window - it could be their key towards mounting a genuine league title push and perhaps even toppling Real.

Nevertheless, their Champions League performance notwithstanding, Sevilla's season thus far has exceeded even what their most ardent fans would have dreamed possible. This team seems to have just the right blend - that "X-factor" that no Sevilla team has ever quite had - until now.

Of course, there's always the possibility that Sevilla's early-season form will end up fizzling out, allowing Real to win the league by a wide margin. However, based on what Sevilla have shown us thus far, their form seems to be sustainable. All it will take now is one final push. Whether that push will come, however, is yet to be seen.

Is this the year at last? Maybe, maybe not - but they're closer than almost all their fans can remember them being.

The Weekly Take, Issue 188: Their Best Chance Has Been Squandered

As the group stage of this season's Champions League came to a conclusion, one of the standout fixtures of the final matchday was the match between Real Madrid and Inter Milan. Real won 2-0 to clinch first place in Group D. Toni Kroos and Marco Asensio scored the goals which ensured that Los Merengues would most likely avoid one of the favourites to win the tournament in the round of 16. Real were also aided by a completely needless Nicolò Barella red card which came due to a scrap with Éder Militão.

Inter will now have to play against a first-placed team in the round of 16. It is now rather unlikely that they will advance to the quarterfinals; thus, as far as Champions League participation is concerned, Inter probably won't make a deep run for the first time since reaching the quarterfinals in the 2010-11 season, when they were the reigning champions.

Looking back, Inter's best chance to be a serious contender to win a fourth Champions League title in the club's history was last season. This was a team which was utterly loaded with talent. Last season's squad featured players such as Achraf Hakimi, Christian Eriksen, Lautaro Martínez, Stefan de Vrij, and of course, star striker Romelu Lukaku. Inter also had elite coaching through Antonio Conte.

Inter won their first Serie A title in a decade last season, finishing ahead of city rivals AC Milan by a massive 12-point margin. However, their Champions League campaign could not have been in starker contrast. Despite having been placed into a fairly easy group containing Borussia Mönchengladbach, Shakhtar Donetsk, and the weakest Real team in many years, the Nerazzurri somehow managed to finish dead last among the quartet and thus even missed the Europa League berth provided to third-placed teams.

Had Inter advanced from the group stage as had been expected, a deep run could've been on the cards. For that matter, if things had broken just right, they could even have conceivably gone all the way. A second-place finish in their Champions League group last season would've seen Inter face off against Manchester City in the round of 16. While Inter would not have been the favourites over two legs against City, they would have had a puncher's chance at the very least. Certainly, Inter would've offered more of a challenge than did Gladbach - City's actual opponents in that round.

If Inter had advanced to the quarterfinals, they would've played against Borussia Dortmund. This matchup would likely have come down to a duel between Lukaku and Dortmund ace Erling Haaland. Once again, an Inter victory would not have been inconceivable. While a subsequent two-legged fixture against Paris Saint-Germain as well as the final against Chelsea would also have been unlikely victories, it would not have been as though Inter would've had no chance whatsoever in either matchup.

However, Inter are now a great deal weaker today than they were last season. Over the off-season, Conte left and was replaced by former Lazio head coach Simone Inzaghi. Chelsea signed Lukaku for €115 million; Hakimi also left the San Siro to join PSG for €60 million. Eriksen, meanwhile, has all but officially retired after having suffered a cardiac arrest while playing for Denmark at Euro 2020. None of Inter's off-season acquisitions to replace these players particularly moved the needle; this is somewhat disappointing given the enormous amounts of money Inter received for the departures of Lukaku and Hakimi.

Of course, Inter's season as a whole has not yet been completely lost. They are currently second in Serie A, just one point behind Milan. Inter are currently riding a four-match winning streak in the league. With Napoli slumping and Juventus continuing to struggle, Inter might just end up with back-to-back Scudetti for the first time in 12 years. A league and cup double, though rather unlikely, is therefore also not out of the question.

However, it's now highly unlikely that Inter will be the ones to break Italy's Champions League-winning drought which dates back to their own triumph during their legendary treble season of 2009-10. They might now be ruing their missed opportunity last season. Would they have won it all? Probably not - but their chances were definitely more than "almost zero" as they are now.