The Weekly Take, Issue 362: Limping Towards the Finish Line

The race for the Premier League’s three remaining UEFA Champions League spots will go down to the final matchday. In contention for these three berths in next season’s tournament are Newcastle United, Chelsea, Aston Villa, Manchester City, and Nottingham Forest.

Prior to the most recent matchday, there’d been an extra qualification spot up for grabs; however, Arsenal claimed it with a 1-0 home win over Newcastle. Declan Rice scored the only goal of the match early in the second half to ensure that the Gunners would qualify for the Champions League for the third season in a row.

Despite the loss, the fate of Newcastle’s Champions League qualification remains in their own hands with just one league match remaining. All the Magpies have to do to clinch Champions League qualification and potentially a top-three league finish for the first time since 2003 is beat Everton at home. Should they do so, Newcastle would not be able to finish any lower than fifth regardless of what the other teams in contention would be able to do.

That being said, based on their recent form, there’s no guarantee that Newcastle will be able to close the deal. Having won just two of their last five league matches, the reigning Carabao Cup champions have fallen into a spotty run of form at the absolute worst time possible.

What really doesn’t help matters - and perhaps the main reason why Newcastle lost to Arsenal - is the groin injury suffered by star striker Alexander Isak. The Swede has beyond any doubt established himself as a truly elite striker and is far and away Newcastle’s best player; however, following this injury, he’s now a doubt to return for the match against Everton. Without Isak leading the line, Newcastle lacked that extra bit of punch up front; it was that “X-factor” that Newcastle were missing which likely prevented them from getting the better of Arsenal’s defense.

It should be noted that in Newcastle’s reverse fixture against Everton earlier this season, Newcastle only managed a goalless draw - and this was without Isak. Should Isak be absent for the season finale, Newcastle’s path to next season’s Champions League becomes that much more difficult.

Another factor which is more than likely playing a role in Newcastle’s late-season decline in form is fatigue. While fatigue certainly impacts every team at this stage of the season, Newcastle are one of the teams which will feel its effects more than most. This is because for all that he has achieved over almost four full seasons at St James’ Park, head coach Eddie Howe still has one glaring issue which he has not corrected. By and large, Howe has less willing to rotate his starting 11 than have many of his opposite numbers - and while this has provided stability, it has also increased the physical toll on Newcastle’s key players.

What makes this point stand out even more is the fact that Newcastle weren’t involved in any continental tournaments this season. As such, with Newcastle guaranteed a spot in at least the UEFA Conference League in 2025-26, Howe will have to get used to rotating his squad more often - not doing so will be to the obvious detriment of the team.

All things considered, regardless of how the final matchday goes, Newcastle’s season has to be deemed a resounding success simply because of their historic Carabao Cup triumph - the club’s first title of any sort since 1969. However, in order for Newcastle to sustain this success instead of dropping off right away as they did last season following a Champions League qualification the season before, they’ll likely have to make important off-season acquisitions.

Among the most notable names linked with a move to Tyneside include English defenders Marc Guéhi and Fikayo Tomori as well as Portuguese striker Gonçalo Ramos who is rumored to be targeted by Newcastle should Isak leave in the off-season. While none of these players would likely push Newcastle into title contention next season, they’d nonetheless give a further push to Newcastle’s bid for back-to-back Champions League qualifications for the first time in 23 years.

In a nutshell, although Newcastle United don’t seem to be finishing the season in quite the way they’d hoped, there are significantly more positives than negatives that they can build on - potentially for another Champions League campaign?

The Weekly Take, Issue 361: The BayArena - Forever the House That Xabi Built

Heading into Bayer Leverkusen’s Bundesliga match against a resurgent Borussia Dortmund, Leverkusen manager Xabi Alonso confirmed that an unforgettable stint of almost three seasons at the BayArena would be ending at the imminent conclusion of the current campaign.

Once the match started, it was obvious that the Leverkusen players were significantly jolted by the announcement - and understandably so. Die Werkself, who had just surrendered their Bundesliga title to Bayern Munich, were nowhere near their usual standard as they succumbed to a 4-2 loss against Die Schwarzgelbe.

Leverkusen actually opened the scoring in the 30th minute via Jeremie Frimpong; however, just three minutes later Julian Brandt scored against his former club to make it 1-1. Dortmund would then go into the half-time break a goal ahead after Pascal Groß set up Julian Ryerson who put Dortmund ahead.

Dortmund would then go on to score twice within a four-minute second-half span with Karim Adeyemi and Serhou Guirassy getting on the scoresheet. It was Guirassy’s 19th league goal of the season, tying him with Leverkusen striker Patrik Schick in second place on the league’s goalscoring rankings. In stoppage time, Leverkusen substitute Jonas Hofmann emulated Brandt by scoring against his former club; however, at this point it was completely irrelevant to the outcome.

It’s more than understandable that Leverkusen were clearly rattled by Alonso’s announcement that he’d soon be leaving the club. Alonso has taken Leverkusen from a relegation dogfight to far and away their most successful era in club history and the clear second-best team in Germany behind Bayern Munich.

When Alonso took over from the recently-fired Gerardo Seoane in October 2022, Leverkusen were second-last in the league and seemed likely to be in contention for relegation at the end of the 2022-23 season. Alonso’s hiring raised eyebrows for many as he had never been a first-team head coach up to that point - let alone one of a club in one of the major European leagues. However, as the weeks and months passed and the wins piled up, Alonso silenced the skeptics again and again. When the season wrapped up, Alonso had taken Leverkusen all the way to sixth place and a spot in the following season’s Europa League.

That, however, would pale in comparison to what the man from the Basque Country was about to pull off. The next season, Alonso took Leverkusen to the Bundesliga and DFB-Pokal titles. Not only that - it was the first time that Leverkusen had won the league title in the club’s history, and they even did so without losing any matches along the way. Despite not being able to cap things off with a Europa League victory, there’s no question that what Alonso did in 2023-24 is among the greatest managerial feats of all time - making the fact that he was snubbed for the Johan Cruyff Trophy, awarded to the world’s best football coach, in favor of Real Madrid’s Carlo Ancelotti particularly egregious.

This past season, Alonso proved that the season before was no fluke. Though Leverkusen weren’t able to defend either of their titles, they nevertheless clearly distanced themselves from every other Bundesliga club not named Bayern Munich. Alonso will now leave Leverkusen having turned it from an afterthought to a bona fide powerhouse of European football in less than three years - a feat made all the more impressive given their lack of financial resources and general prestige prior to his arrival.

Regarding player development, Florian Wirtz has turned into a true superstar with Alonso at the helm while the likes of Victor Boniface, Álex Grimaldo Patrik Schick, Lukas Hradecky, and Jonathan Tah, among others, have all had career-best seasons with Alonso in the dugout.

As Alonso prepares to leave Leverkusen for Real - the club for which he played for five years - to replace Ancelotti, he will certainly have enormous shoes to fill upon his arrival at the Santiago Bernabéu. The same can certainly be said about whoever goes on to replace Alonso at Leverkusen.

Although Xabi Alonso’s stint in charge of Bayer Leverkusen will be a relatively short one, there’s no question that it will be one which will never be forgotten. Someday, there ought to be a statue of Alonso put up just outside the BayArena.

The Weekly Take, Issue 360: An Obvious Opportunity Missed

A decade and a half after their iconic Champions League semifinal, Barcelona and Inter Milan faced off at the same stage of the tournament. The fixture 15 years ago saw Inter come out on top by a 2-1 aggregate scoreline, largely because José Mourinho, who was coaching Inter at the time, comprehensively out-strategized his opposite number Pep Guardiola over both legs in what has since gone down as perhaps Mourinho’s greatest tactical performance ever.

Back in the present day, the result of the first leg has set up a scenario in which the return leg could end up delivering a level of hype and drama to match the 2010 semifinal. The first leg at the Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys finished in a 3-3 draw.

Despite entering the match as the clear underdog, Inter defied the odds to score the first two goals of the match within 21 minutes; in fact, the first of the two arrived before even one minute of gameplay had elapsed. Marcus Thuram and Denzel Dumfries put Inter in a commanding position early on with both scoring highlight-reel goals; Thuram with a backheel and Dumfries with a scissor kick.

However, Inter eased up too soon and ended up heading into the half-time break on level terms after Barça scored twice before the interval. Three minutes after Dumfries’ goal, Lamine Yamal surged into the penalty area before scoring a spectacular goal of his own, curling it into the net off the Inter far post. Later in the first half, Raphinha set up Ferran Torres who duly took advantage of the opportunity and made it 2-2.

After the break, Dumfries scored his second to put Inter back ahead around midway through the second half; however, this didn’t last as just two minutes later, Raphinha’s shot struck the crossbar before coming off Inter goalkeeper Yann Sommer en route to the back of the net.

Despite dominating the match and having the vast majority of the goalscoring chances, Barça weren’t able to come out on top. Should they end up being knocked out of the tournament following the second leg at the San Siro, the Catalan club will undoubtedly rue the many missed opportunities they had throughout the first leg.

One major point of concern which Barça must certainly take note of heading into the second leg is their defense against set pieces. Both of Dumfries’ goals came by way of corner kicks. All season long, Barça haven’t exactly been the best at defending against aerial attacks - and this came back to bite them. Though it has to be said that Dumfries’ first goal was a genuinely excellent finish, the point nonetheless remains that on that goal as well as his second, Barça’s defending was evidently substandard - and Dumfries made the Blaugrana pay for it on both occasions.

In some ways, Barça fell right into Inter’s trap. Simone Inzaghi and his Nerazzurri team knew just how Barça intended to approach this match and set up accordingly. It could be argued that despite what the number of shots attempted and possession statistics might imply, Barça were actually the reactive team while Inter were proactive even if on the surface it might not have appeared as such. This might just end up being a case of history repeating itself - an Inter team without the raw talent that the Barça team they’re facing comes out on top due to having a better gameplan.

Finally, Barça have to get more out of their players not named Lamine Yamal and Raphinha. The wingers are far and away the club’s best players - evidenced by the fact that they could realistically finish first and second in the Ballon d’Or rankings. However, apart from them as well as Torres, Barça’s players simply didn’t rise to the occasion in the first leg. It should go without saying that Barça can’t constantly fall back on their aces to bail them out every time - especially at this late stage of the tournament when every contribution from every player counts.

Having said all of this, there’s still no question that Barcelona remain the obvious favourites not only to advance to the final, but also win it all. Nevertheless, cracks in the armour have become apparent following this match against Inter. Barça were arguably let off the hook in the first leg - another performance like this could see them eliminated from the tournament.

The Weekly Take, Issue 359: The Post-Marmoush Drop-Off Never Came

With the 2024-25 Bundesliga season drawing to a close, Eintracht Frankfurt all but clinched a spot in next season’s Champions League after a dominant 4-0 victory against RB Leipzig. Barring a shocking collapse over the final three matchdays, the victory made it almost certain that Frankfurt will finish the season in the top four for the first time in over three decades.

Frankfurt scored the opening goal in the 21st minute via Ansgar Knauff who was set up by Hugo Ekitike. The rest of the first half was a relatively even affair; no further goals were scored. What ended up tipping the balance of the match was actually an early second-half red card issued to Leipzig defender El Chadaille Bitshiabu after a last-man foul on Knauff.

It was after Leipzig were left a player short that Frankfurt took over. Die Adler would score three goals while having the numerical advantage; Knauff scored his and his team’s second just three minutes after Bitshiabu’s red card before Frankfurt added two more in a four-minute span with Ekitike and Robin Koch getting on the scoresheet.

What’s been really notable about Frankfurt’s season to date is the fact that despite losing Omar Marmoush - who had been far and away their best player - in the mid-season transfer window, they haven’t fallen off at all. When Manchester City signed the Egyptian striker for €75 million in January, there were concerns that Marmoush’s departure would end up derailing Frankfurt’s campaign and understandably so; Marmoush’s contributions were the biggest reasons why Frankfurt were in third place in the league at the time of his departure, putting them on track for their best league finish since the 1992-93 season when they also finished third.

Following a short slump during the adjustment period following Marmoush’s departure in which Frankfurt won just one of seven matches, Frankfurt have bounced back strongly with four wins in six and next season will almost certainly feature on the biggest stage of European club football for the first time in four years.

Perhaps more than anything else, the main reason why Frankfurt have been able to hold their position even after Marmoush left for the Etihad Stadium is the emergence of Hugo Ekitike. Ever since City’s signing of Marmoush, Ekitike has taken his play to a new level and at just 22 has already established himself as the new centerpiece of what has become a formidable and often underrated team. Now out of Marmoush’s shadow, Ekitike has been putting the Bundesliga on notice with some seriously impressive performances; the Frenchman once again delivered against Leipzig. It’s astonishing to think that Ekitike has to date never been capped by his country; however, at the rate he’s going, his debut for Les Bleus will surely be a matter of “when”, not “if” - and likely very soon as well.

It’s worth mentioning that three of Frankfurt’s four goals came by way of a set piece. Set-piece play has been one of Frankfurt’s primary strengths this season - and this was once again made obvious in this match as Leipzig simply had no answer for their opponents when playing from the dead ball. It’s been an advantage they’ve often relied on this season to much effect.

One other aspect of this Frankfurt team which has sometimes been overlooked is its balance and depth. In addition to Ekitike, Frankfurt’s usual starting 11 contains players such as Rasmus Kristensen, Koch, Tuta, Kevin Trapp, and Arthur Theate - all of whom are undoubtedly at the level needed for a team like Frankfurt to make a serious push for the top four. Most of Frankfurt’s core players are also relatively young; as such, for as long as they can hang on to them before they get picked up by a bigger club, Frankfurt will likely be challenging for Champions League berths.

Based on everything they’ve shown this season, there’s no reason why Eintracht Frankfurt wouldn’t be able to pick up where they left off at the beginning of next season and match their accomplishments from this one. In fact, a deep run in next season’s Champions League isn’t out of the question by any means. There’s absolutely no doubt that the future at Deutsche Bank Park is very bright indeed.

The Weekly Take, Issue 358: More Questions Than Answers

Having just advanced to the semifinals of the Europa League after beating Glasgow Rangers 2-0 on aggregate, Athletic Bilbao had the opportunity not only to strengthen their own chase for the top five in La Liga and a place in next season’s Champions League, but also potentially deal the final blow to Real Madrid’s chances of successfully defending their league title.

There was perhaps no better time for the Basque club to face off against Los Merengues because Real had just been destroyed by Arsenal in the Champions League quarterfinals. Not only that - Real had been further unsettled by recent speculation that legendary head coach Carlo Ancelotti would be leaving the Santiago Bernabéu in the off-season after six years over two separate stints. The Italian is widely expected to take over in the Brazil national team’s dugout.

Given all of this, one might think that if ever there were a time that Athletic were to pick up a huge upset win over Real, this would’ve been it. This, however, was not the case as the skill gap between the two teams was made clear. Real beat Athletic 1-0 and kept their league title hopes alive; the one-goal margin of victory was rather deceiving as Real dominated the match and probably should have won by more.

It took Real until stoppage time to score the only goal of the match - and it was a goal which will surely be replayed on highlight reels for a long time to come. Federico Valverde, who started this match at right-back rather than his usual central midfield, hammered a spectacular volley into the far corner of the net in the third minute of the additional time. The Uruguayan has built a reputation as a player with a knack for scoring flashy goals, and he once again lived up to it with arguably his best one yet.

As for Athletic, however, this was a loss they really didn’t need. It has been over a decade since the last time Athletic qualified for the Champions League; although they still remain likely to break that streak this season, it’s still not a guarantee with both Villarreal and Real Betis, the two clubs directly behind them in the league, having played one game less.

Against Real, Athletic looked disjointed, incoherent, and completely unprepared for the match. Athletic hardly ever put a string of meaningful passes together; almost every time it looked as though they might have been getting somewhere, they’d almost immediately lose the ball. This in turn led to Athletic not being able to play the way they intended to; their ideal playstyle usually involves dictating the tempo of the match in the opponent’s half. However, this of course could not have been the case if they weren’t able to even get the ball into the opponent’s half to begin with as was the case against Real where they had only slightly more than a quarter of the possession.

On the plus side, Athletic’s defense did put in a solid shift to limit the damage and keep the scoreline to 1-0. Goalkeeper Unai Simón was perhaps Athletic’s best player in this match, making multiple key saves and ensuring that his team would have a fighting chance. Midfielder Beñat Prados and full-back Andoni Gorosabel, meanwhile, made several important tackles which could potentially have warded off further goals by Real. Athletic have conceded fewer league goals this season than any other team in La Liga with 26; this match was further evidence as to why this is the case.

One other pressing concern, however, has to regard the potential departure of winger Nico Williams, Athletic’s best player. Williams sat out this match injured, making it something of a glimpse into what to expect from them should he leave the San Mamés in the off-season as has been speculated by some. Needless to say, it did not look promising at all and the question has to be asked: do Athletic have a backup plan if Williams does leave?

All of this having been said, it still has to be reiterated that Athletic Bilbao remain likely to make it to next season’s Champions League. However, unless they make crucial changes in the off-season, it’s quite possible that they might not remain there for too long.

The Weekly Take, Issue 357: The Champions League Title Starts to Slip Away

With Bayern Munich likely to reclaim the Bundesliga title which they stunningly surrendered to Bayer Leverkusen last season, the Bavarian powerhouse’s attention was now firmly on their Champions League quarterfinal against Inter Milan. A win would put Bayern in the semifinals for the second season in a row.

However, Bayern will have their work cut out for them when they head to the San Siro next week after losing the first leg 2-1 at home. Inter opened the scoring in the 38th minute via a spectacular trivela goal by Lautaro Martínez that caught Bayern goalkeeper Jonas Urbig completely off-guard. Although Bayern went into the break a goal behind, they were the team largely in control of the flow of the game; it did seem as though at some point, Bayern would find an equalizer.

After continuing to push throughout the second half, Bayern did indeed make it 1-1 deep into the second half. Just over five minutes before the end of regulation time, Thomas Müller finished off Konrad Laimer’s pass with a half-volley. It was fitting that Müller found the net for Bayern after having recently announced that he’d be leaving the Allianz Arena at the end of the season after a legendary 17-year career at Bayern.

However, at least as far as the first leg would be concerned, Bayern and Müller would be denied their fairytale ending. Only about three minutes after Müller’s goal, Davide di Frattesi scored Inter Milan’s winning goal, ensuring that the Nerazzurri would have the advantage heading into the second leg.

There are several key points to pick out as the main reasons behind Bayern’s loss - but among them, the most important has to be the fact that head coach Vincent Kompany completely bungled his tactics. Many have been skeptical of the Belgian ever since he was hired in the most recent off-season; this was understandable given the fact that his most notable achievement to date was reaching the final of the Belgian Cup in 2022 with Anderlecht - not even close to the level that he’d be expected to be at in the Bayern dugout.

There were three obvious errors that Kompany made in his tactical setup. The most notable was his decision to choose Raphaël Guerreiro over Müller as the starting attacking midfielder. There was no reason whatsoever to do so because this specific match-up favored Müller’s playstyle rather than Guerreiro’s - something Kompany obviously missed entirely. Not surprisingly, Guerreiro was among Bayern’s worst players against Inter because, as predicted, Inter’s tactical setup largely neutralized Guerreiro. By the time Guerreiro was replaced by Serge Gnabry in the 74th minute, it was too late - Bayern had already blown several opportunities which they might have taken with someone else on the pitch; they would be made to pay for those later.

While his big-game struggles have been known for a while now, Harry Kane once again failed to deliver under the brightest lights and highest pressure with a dismal showing, squandering multiple major goalscoring chances. Despite being unquestionably the greatest striker to ever come out of England, Kane has time and again wilted under the spotlight; this match against Inter was no exception. Although Kane will likely put an end to his infamous trophyless career record this season unless Bayern somehow fumble the Bundesliga title, this match once again showed why, for all that he has accomplished throughout his career and despite his standing as an all-time great, he still falls short of that highest echelon - the “inner circle” of those all-time greats.

Finally, even if Bayern were to overturn the deficit and beat Inter to advance to the semifinals, the biggest issue that faces them is probably this: they don’t have that one guy who can single-handedly take over the match and put the team on his back. As of right now, the clear title favorites are Barcelona who have Lamine Yamal filling that most important of roles. It’s very difficult to win the Champions League without a bona fide superstar on that tier - and Bayern don’t have one.

Although it’s too soon to completely dismiss Bayern Munich’s chances of winning the Champions League, things certainly don’t look good at the moment. They’re working not only against their recent track record, but also historical precedent. Unless something changes soon, Bayern likely won’t be bringing the Champions League trophy back to Bavaria for the sixth time.

The Weekly Take, Issue 356: Wait, Haven't We Seen This Before?

Chelsea moved a step closer to clinching a spot in next season’s Champions League by beating Tottenham 1-0 in a London derby which went according to the script - after all, the vast majority of people expected this to be won by the Blues, given Tottenham’s dismal season that’s seen them end up all the way down in 14th place in the Premier League.

The only goal of this match at Stamford Bridge came just after half-time. Cole Palmer sent in a perfect cross which Enzo Fernández finished off with a close-range header. Both teams would subsequently have a goal waved off via VAR; Moisés Caicedo wasn’t quite able to put Chelsea two goals ahead after his goal fell afoul of a VAR check. Later on, Pape Matar Sarr’s would-be equalizer experienced the same fate.

When things wrapped up, there was clearly one player who, as he has done on so many occasions this season, stood head and shoulders above the rest - and who else could it have been but Chelsea ace Cole Palmer? The Manchester-born midfielder has been almost single-handedly carrying Chelsea over the course of this season and last; without him, Chelsea wouldn’t have even come close to qualifying for the Europa Conference League. This time around, they’re very much in contention for a Champions  League berth by finishing in the top four.

Out of everyone who’s part of the six clubs who could realistically finish in any of the lower two Champions League qualification spots, Palmer is the best player who doesn’t play for Manchester City by a considerable distance. He has transformed Chelsea ever since breaking out as a bona fide superstar last season, turning them from a mere punchline to a team which actually appears to have a semblance of legitimacy about it. In 2022-23, the season before Palmer was brought to Stamford Bridge, Chelsea finished just 12th in the league - their worst league finish since the 1993-94 campaign when they ended up all the way down in 14th. Their turnaround since then has almost been completely due to Palmer.

As of right now, there’s a case to be made that Palmer is already one of the top 10 players in the world at just 22 years old. Likely still several years away from his absolute peak, Palmer is primed to become a perennial Ballon d’Or contender once he gets there.

This, however, does bring up a question - and it’s one which will be very familiar to many Chelsea fans: just how will the club build around Palmer? Years ago when Chelsea had Eden Hazard on the roster, year after year Chelsea spent money on the wrong guys to surround him with - legendary defensive midfielder N'Golo Kanté being one of the rare exceptions. Having understandably run out of patience by then, it was little surprise that Hazard eventually left Chelsea for Real Madrid in the 2019 off-season after a seven-year stint at Chelsea. While there’s no guarantee that this will be what will eventually happen to Palmer, the signs so far aren’t exactly promising.

With the possible exception of the loan acquisition of Jadon Sancho from Manchester United, none of the players which Chelsea have brought in this season have moved the needle in any way. This is especially galling when one considers the fact that Chelsea have spent over £200 million on player transfers this season. To make matters worse, they even parted with Ian Maatsen, Romelu Lukaku, and Conor Gallagher - all players who would’ve certainly contributed to their top-four push.

Ever since Todd Boehly bought Chelsea in May 2022, it’s been more of the same when compared to the Roman Abramovich years - if not even worse. Again and again, Boehly has spent recklessly on players who don’t fit the direction in which Chelsea ought to be heading; as of right now, Chelsea are completely failing at building a team around Palmer. If this keeps up, it could be very possible that Palmer leaves at some point within the next five years.

Players at Cole Palmer’s level are the rarest commodity in football and the centerpiece around which a truly elite team can be built. However, it appears that history is starting to repeat itself at Chelsea - and based on the last few years, it’s more likely than not that they will double down on their current approach.