The Weekly Take, Issue 293: A Historic Achievement on the Horizon

For many years, Bayer Leverkusen have been the punchline of the Bundesliga. A team mocked as one which could never seal the deal under pressure - the perpetual chokers under pressure to the extent that they have been bestowed the pejorative nickname "Neverkusen". This isn't surprising given the fact that in their history of 120 years, Leverkusen have just two trophies to their name - the UEFA Cup in 1987-88 and the DFB-Pokal in 1992-93.

However, this season everything could be changing for Die Werkself. Leverkusen's 3-2 victory over RB Leipzig put Leverkusen in a commanding position at the summit of the Bundesliga. An early goal scored by Xavi Simons put Leipzig one goal up heading into half-time. The match moved into another gear after the interval; Nathan Tella's equalizer was rapidly answered by Loïs Openda who restored Leipzig's lead, only for centre-back Jonathan Tah to score the equalizer seven minutes later. Leverkusen completed the comeback after Piero Hincapié's winning goal in stoppage time.

It's plainly obvious that this season's version is nothing like Bayer Leverkusen teams of the past. While there are several other reasons why such is the case, the largest portion of the credit has to go to Xabi Alonso. Ever since taking over in the dugout in 2022, Alonso has quickly established himself as one of European football's best young coaches. Last season, it was largely thanks to Alonso that the Rhine club climbed from the relegation zone to sixth place at the end of the campaign. Since then, Alonso's tactical prowess has helped Leverkusen take it to a new level. After more than half of the league season, the only points Leverkusen have dropped came in three draws - hence their current seven-point lead.

Alonso's preferred 3-4-3 formation has become something of a calling card, and for good reason. The team's emphasis on possession, a stat in which Leverkusen rank second in the Bundesliga, has yielded major dividends. Of course, it has to be mentioned that possession alone isn't a determinant of wins and losses. With this in mind, Leverkusen are also one of the most productive teams when in possession. Leverkusen top the league in passes in the opponent's half and total number of touches; they're also ranked behind Bayern Munich alone in pass completion rate.

Leverkusen's vast amount of high-quality possession has subsequently led to notable benefits in the final third. Perhaps the key to Leverkusen's success up front has been balance - excluding own goals by opponents, Leverkusen's league-leading 50 goals have been scored by 13 different players with five of them thus far having scored five or more goals. Leverkusen are not only creating high-quality chances as shown by their xG (second in the league), they are doing so with an impressive regularity. After gaining possession, Leverkusen tend to embark on high-speed counterattacks that culminate in the creation of one or more goalscoring chances. It should thus come as no surprise that centre-forward Victor Boniface has attempted more shots on goal than any other Bundesliga player this season.

Adding to this, Leverkusen absolutely crushed it in the off-season transfer window. The signings of Álex Grimaldo, Boniface, Granit Xhaka, and Jonas Hofmann for a combined total of €55 million have proven to be masterstrokes. All four have slotted into the starting 11 seamlessly and probably been the most significant on-field contributors to Leverkusen's success this season. Although Leverkusen aren't expected to make any major moves in this January transfer window, that might not even matter. As things stand, Leverkusen boast a cohesive unit with clearly defined roles and therefore might not want to risk introducing any uncertainty to what is becoming a very special season indeed.

Of course, it can't be overlooked that Leverkusen's success might not last long beyond this season. Several of the club's best players are already garnering attention from larger and wealthier clubs while Alonso has a contract clause which might see him leave the BayArena at the end of the season. That being said, none of this downplays the incredible things that have been happening at Leverkusen this season.

No club other than Bayern has won the Bundesliga since the 2011-12 season. Bayer Leverkusen are now in prime position to change that statistic while also being well-positioned to potentially win the Europa League as well. This season, there hasn't been a team which has drawn attention like Leverkusen have - and deservedly so.

The Weekly Take, Issue 292: Hitting Their Stride - But Still Room for Improvement

AC Milan kept their slight Serie A title chances alive by beating Roma 3-1, remaining in third place in the league and nine points behind league leaders and cross-town rivals Inter Milan.

Early in the first half, Yacine Adli put the Rossoneri one goal ahead before Olivier Giroud doubled Milan's lead soon after the interval. Roma reduced the deficit after Leandro Paredes dispatched a penalty following Davide Calabria's foul on Lorenzo Pellegrini. Six minutes from the end of regulation time, Milan sealed the victory after Giroud set up Theo Hernández, who emphatically buried his first-time shot from the edge of the penalty area.

Milan's victory sent a clear message to Inter and Juventus: they cannot be ruled out of the Scudetto race by any means. Having overcome a recent slump, Milan have now won four of their last five league matches and are playing arguably their best football thus far this season. During this recent hot streak, Milan also picked up an impressive Champions League away win against Newcastle United to ensure that despite their elimination from the tournament, Milan would nevertheless finish third in Group F and enter the Europa League's round of 32.

A pivotal reason behind the uptick in Milan's recent level of play has been the improved play of their off-season acquisitions who have become increasingly comfortable in the red half of the city. Ruben Loftus-Cheek and Tijjani Reijnders are playing at a level well above that of earlier in the season, while the acquisition of Christian Pulisic from Chelsea for €20 million is beginning to look like a masterstroke. The American midfielder has looked like a player reborn after his struggles at Stamford Bridge and been arguably Milan's best player this season.

Earlier this season following Milan's loss to Inter in the Derby della Madonnina, I criticized Milan head coach Stefano Pioli for his questionable tactical approaches and tendency to overthink the situation to the detriment of his team. This has not been the case in recent weeks, and this trend continued against Roma. Pioli's substitutions were on point throughout and his tactics kept Roma largely neutralized for much of the match. Much of the early-season buzz surrounding Pioli's potential firing has somewhat quietened; if he can stay on this path for the next several weeks, he will almost certainly survive until the end of the season.

Should the club owners choose to pull the plug on Pioli's tenure at the end of the season, the possibility of Antonio Conte's hiring would become a very real one. A four-time Serie A champion with Juve and Inter, Conte would bring stability and consistency to Milan. Despite his ties to Milan's two arch-rivals, Conte is by far the preferred choice of most Milan fans as to who should succeed Pioli in the dugout. However, one sticking point could be transfer budget matters. Conte has typically preferred to work with larger transfer budgets - and this could end up being a turn-off to the club's ownership.

This segues into the next point. As of right now, Milan are very much still a work in progress. However, Milan have not been linked with any players of particular note during this January transfer window. Last month, it had been claimed that Milan were most interested in adding a centre-back, centre-forward, left-back, and central midfielder. Thus far, though, Milan have only landed one player: right-back Filippo Tetracciano, signed from Hellas Verona for €4.5 million - not a splashy signing by any means. Other names which have been thrown around include Juan Miranda, Assan Ouédraogo, Jakub Kiwior, and Benoît Badiashile - the latter two on loan deals; however, none are even remotely likely to move the needle much.

In some ways, AC Milan's match against Roma served as a microcosm of their season to date. They're not in an awful position per se and have been trending in the right direction. That being said, Milan are at still at risk of another season that fizzles out. They're still unlikely to win either Serie A or the Europa League. If nothing else, at least a top-four spot is, barring a late-season collapse, all but safe. It could thus be said that this season sees Milan in a "no man's land" - but the real question will be what they do after it.

The Weekly Take, Issue 291: An Ugly Victory - and a Turning Point?

With the La Liga season now at its halfway point, Barcelona kept their flagging league title hopes alive with a 2-1 away victory against Las Palmas. Barça actually trailed at half-time following Munir El Haddadi's 12th-minute opener for their Canarian opponents. Ten minutes after the break, Ferran Torres equalized for the Blaugrana. A back-and-forth match came to a dramatic conclusion in stoppage time after Las Palmas substitute Daley Sinkgraven committed a last-man penalty area foul on İlkay Gündoğan. Sinkgraven was promptly sent off before Gündoğan converted the penalty to give the Catalan club all three points.

This season, things have not quite gone according to plan for Barça. As things stand, they are seven points behind league leaders Real Madrid and have been going through a run of sub-par performances - including this most recent match, despite the victory. This is the first time in almost two months that Barça have won consecutive league matches. Even then, both victories were achieved in rather unconvincing fashion. Barça also came close to losing first place in their Champions League group after losing two of their last three group matches - against Shakhtar Donetsk and Royal Antwerp respectively.

Following a dominant 2022-23 league campaign which saw them win La Liga by a 10-point margin over arch-rivals Real, Barça have been inconsistent for the majority of this season. Arguably the main cause of Barça's decline this season has been their sub-optimal defensive play, particularly when defending against counter-attacks. In their loss to surprise league title contenders and fellow Catalan club Girona, all four goals that Barça conceded were scored on counter-attacks. Several other losses in the league and Champions League were also caused by this same shortcoming.

Further exacerbating Barça's drop-off is the diminished performance of multiple key players including Jules Koundé, Alejandro Balde, Robert Lewandowski, and most notably of all, Marc-André ter Stegen. Schematic and tactical tweaks, unnecessary line-up rotations, ongoing changes in the metagame, and in Lewandowski's case, an age-related decline have been among the factors causing these downturns. Though it's certainly possible that the players involved could turn it around, the damage might already have been done. Overhauling a seven-point deficit against a powerhouse like Real is a tall order indeed.

Additionally, Barça's financial difficulties adversely impacted their ability to add to their roster in the off-season. The club spent just €3.4 million to sign midfielder from Girona while also bringing in Gündoğan and Iñigo Martínez on free transfers. To say that such a haul is paltry for a club of Barça's stature would be a severe understatement. While this issue has been somewhat alleviated with the acquisition of Brazilian striker Vitor Roque from Athletico Paranaense earlier this week, Roque's impact on the team, at least in the short term, is likely to be somewhat limited.

All of that being said, the match against Las Palmas did provide some positive signs. Barça showed a level of grit and tenacity that had been sorely lacking from so many matches this season as they battled back from one goal behind. Barça's midfield also once again proved that the loss of Gavi for the season after a torn ACL has not had the damaging impact one might have assumed; fellow midfielders Gündoğan and Frenkie de Jong have probably been Barça's two best players this season and both turned in excellent displays to keep Barça's league title defense alive.

One player with whom Barça have been linked is Genoa defender Radu Drăgușin. The Romanian has been having a breakout season after the Ligurian side turned his loan deal into a permanent one during the off-season. At just 21, Drăgușin could be a potential long-term solution at centre-back while also covering for the declined performance of Barça's defense this season. Drăgușin, valued at approximately €20 million, could turn out to be a highly impactful pickup.

In spite of Barcelona's struggles this season, there is a path for them to salvage this season. Although Barça might not be the favourites in either La Liga or the Champions League, they can at least avoid falling too far adrift of the league title race while also making a deep run in Europe. While a significant improvement from what we have seen from them this season is required, could it be possible that Barça might be starting to turn the corner? It remains to be seen - but it's not out of the question.

The Weekly Take, Issue 290: Last Season Was Just an Anomaly

Liverpool have moved into first place in the Premier League after a 4-2 victory over a slumping Newcastle United. All six goals were scored in the second half with Mohamed Salah's two goals, including one from the penalty spot, not only sealing the victory but also putting Salah level with Manchester City striker Erling Haaland in the race for the league's top scorer award; both now have 14 league goals this season.

Having endured a difficult 2022-23 season which saw them fail to qualify for the Champions League for the first time since the 2015-16 season, Liverpool have undoubtedly bounced back. During the past off-season, the Reds embarked on a large-scale overhaul following the departures of multiple key players. Despite signing just four players, Liverpool spent a significant amount of money to bring them to Anfield - over £140 million in total with the standout signings being Dominik Szoboszlai and Alexis Mac Allister.

Despite such a large outlay, however, the majority of Liverpool's success this season has been driven by a resurgence from the players they already had, with the notable exception of Szoboszlai who has more than hit the ground running since his arrival. Virgil van Dijk has arguably been playing at his highest level since his ACL tear in 2020, while Trent Alexander-Arnold has reclaimed his spot as the best full-back in the Premier League.

Even the much-criticized Darwin Núñez has been solid. After a difficult first season at Liverpool, the Uruguayan striker has started to find himself in more of a playmaking role - something which has seemed to work for him this season. Although Núñez isn't any more prolific in front of goal, he has already amassed six assists in league play with just over half the season completed.

And then there's the main man himself. Salah is on pace for what might be his best individual season in his already legendary Liverpool career. Currently leading the league in goals and assists, Salah is unquestionably the leading contender to win his third PFA Player of the Year award. At this point, Salah is not only part of Liverpool's Mount Rushmore - there should now be a genuine discussion about whether the Egyptian is the greatest player in the club's storied history.

Before the season began, many assumed that as has so often been the case in recent years, City would pull away from the pack and run away with the league title. This has certainly not been the case - and on top of that, the only club in the past six seasons to have broken City's stranglehold on the Premier League is the one which tops the league right now. Unlike Arsenal or Aston Villa, many of Liverpool's players know what it takes to win the league title and have been through countless duels with the Citizens which their counterparts from other title rivals have not - and that could very well make all the difference.

That being said, a highly pressing issue is once again about to befall Liverpool. Salah will soon depart for Côte d'Ivoire to represent his country in the Africa Cup of Nations. If Liverpool are able to remain in the lead or within touching distance of it once Salah returns from AFCON, they would certainly have a realistic chance of denying City an unprecedented fourth consecutive league title. However, a significant drop-off following Salah's departure could ruin their bid to equal arch-rivals Manchester United's tally of 20 league titles.

It might be advisable for Liverpool to pursue anpther striker, most likely one who would come on a loan deal, during the January transfer window to give their attacking force the short-term boost it needs. The next few weeks will be critical towards Liverpool's title challenge - both on the field and in the transfer market.

It's clear by now that for Liverpool, the struggles of last season were an outlier. The last time they were playing this well for an extended period like this were in their 2018-19 and 2019-20 seasons when they won a Premier League and a Champions League title. But can they take it all the way and win the league once again? It remains to be seen; however, at the moment things are trending towards "why not them?"

The Weekly Take, Issue 289: The Revival Nobody Saw Coming

The latest edition of the Derby del Sole had an additional layer of importance with both AS Roma and Napoli in contention for the top four and berths in next season's revamped Champions League. Roma emerged with a crucial 2-0 victory. Substitute Lorenzo Pellegrini opened the scoring in the 76th minute. In the sixth minute of stoppage time, Romelu Lukaku scored his eighth league goal of the season to secure all three points for the Giallorossi.

Despite having 60% of the possession, Napoli were never in control of the match, attempting just seven shots to Roma's 17 and seldom putting together a productive stretch of play. In addition, Napoli finished the match with just nine men following red cards received by Matteo Politano and Victor Osimhen.

If Roma were to make it to next season's Champions League, it would be their first time doing so in six years. While Roma have seen the likes of Bryan Cristante, Leonardo Spinazzola, Paulo Dybala, and Diego Llorente making key contributions, there's another name there which has to be noted: that of Lukaku.

After a dismal 2021-22 season at Chelsea in which his form completely fell off the cliff from the prior season, Lukaku was loaned back to Inter Milan where he had been so dominant before. However, this second go-around at the San Siro would see the Belgian centre-forward not even come close to the levels which he reached in his previous two-year stint at Inter. As a result, when Lukaku returned to Stamford Bridge at the beginning of this season, he was unsurprisingly loaned out again - this time to Roma.

Lukaku's loan stint at Roma almost didn't even happen at all. Inter attempted to sign Lukaku permanently, but this never materialized. Rumours about a move to Juventus, Paris Saint-Germain, and even Saudi Arabia had circulated before the deal with Roma was struck. Roma's loan acquisition of Lukaku was largely facilitated by Lukaku's interest in once again working with José Mourinho, who had coached him at Manchester United between 2016 and 2018. Despite this, many were skeptical of the move.

In a twist that very few could have seen coming, Lukaku is in his best form since leaving Inter for the first time back in the 2021 off-season. With 13 goals in all competitions as the season approaches its halfway point, Lukaku has spearheaded a Roma attack that - contrary to the stereotypical Mourinho team - has been heavy on goals with 30 in the league thus far, ranking Roma third behind Inter and AC Milan in this statistic.

Probably the main factor behind Lukaku's resurgence is that, at least right now, Roma are a team that suit a centre-forward like him. Full of capable playmakers like Dybala, Leandro Paredes, and Cristante, this Roma team is set up to make Lukaku able to function as the classic target man up front - the role in which he has largely thrived throughout his career.

While a seemingly minor point, Lukaku's interest in working with Mourinho should also be pointed out. During his time at United, Lukaku's best stretch of form coincided with Mourinho's tenure there. After Mourinho was fired in December 2018, Lukaku's form dipped dramatically, ultimately leading to his exit in the 2019 off-season. Although this is certainly not the main source of Lukaku's revival, it cannot be overlooked as a potential contributing factor.

That being said, the one question which has plagued Lukaku for much of his career continues to do so: can he turn it up when the pressure is at its highest? Time and time again we have seen Lukaku come up short whenever his team has most needed a big performance from him. The prime examples of this failure to deliver in the clutch were his own goal to lose the 2020 Europa League final for Inter and his shambolic display in Inter's 2023 Champions League final loss to Manchester City. Until he actually does produce in high-stakes matches, there will always be warranted skepticism around him.

Romelu Lukaku has had quite the career - one with a myriad of ups and downs, twists and turns, and wild swings in form. After a long spell in the footballing doldrums, he seems to be on the way back - but will it last? With how unpredictable his play, especially in recent years, has been, anyone who would make a definitive comment on that is daring indeed.

The Weekly Take, Issue 288: Falling Behind with No Plan

Manchester United's troubled season has just hit a new low. The Red Devils' 1-0 loss to Bayern Munich in the last group-stage matchday of this season's Champions League ensured that United would not only be knocked out of the tournament before the last 16, but would also do so in last place in Group A and thus even missed entry into the Europa League.

Heading into the match, some might have expected Bayern to have fielded more backups than they ordinarily would have as they had already clinched first place in the group. However, this was not the case; Bayern made just one change from the starting 11 that were shockingly destroyed 5-1 by Eintracht Frankfurt in their Bundesliga match over the weekend. Thomas Tuchel's decision against making widespread changes paid off, with Kingsley Coman scoring the only goal of the match shortly after the half-time break.

For United, this was a match which as so often has been the case this season, yielded more questions than answers. While not quite in full-blown crisis mode at the moment, United's future is as murky as it has ever been - and one of the players who has been among the chief culprits served up yet another dud in a season full of them.

Rasmus Højlund was completely out of his depth up front. The Danish striker had by far the worst performance of everyone to step onto the field at Old Trafford. Having been signed for the astonishingly high transfer fee of €75 million - one which even at the time was widely regarded as an overpay by a large margin - Højlund has not even come close to living up to his price tag. To say that Højlund has been dismal this season would be unjust - unjustly generous to Højlund, that is. At this point, the only thing that would likely keep Højlund in the red half of Manchester next season is sunk-cost fallacy.

The controversy surrounding Jadon Sancho has also destabilized the team. Once heralded as one of the most promising young talents in world football, Sancho has since revealed himself to be a head case with more red flags than there are literal ones during his club's home matches. While his ensuing fallout with head coach Erik ten Hag has resulted in the London-born winger's exclusion from even being considered for selection, it's obvious that the many incidents that have led up to this point have thrown off the atmosphere within the team and served as an unwelcome distraction.

While it may be true that United have been dealing with injuries suffered by multiple key players, their lack of depth has clearly been exposed. At the moment, ten Hag is clearly unsure over who to play in the absence of certain regular starters - and understandably so. United have to be one of the clubs which have the largest skill gaps between starters and backups. This is something which could easily have been addressed in the off-season if not for the club's exceptionally strange decisions to shell out such huge amounts to land Højlund and Mason Mount.

The issue for United right now is that there doesn't seem to be a single change which would get them out of this rut. Sell Højlund? Fire ten Hag? Bring in backups in January? Sign a new starting winger? Maybe even a tactical overhaul? While any of those options would be understandable, all would serve as no more than a quick fix. Even if the Glazers do finally choose to sell the club, United's would-be new owner would have quite the puzzle to solve - there would be no guarantee that a solution would be on the horizon even then.

Over the last few seasons, again and again Manchester United have seemed so close to finally taking steps forward and at least becoming consistently competitive once again - only to slip backwards before too long. There just doesn't seem to be an actionable plan to give them that push which re-establishes them as top-four Premier League staples; they have finished there in consecutive seasons just once in the past decade. United clearly understand that there is a major problem; however, they can't even define it, much less plan to solve it - and that's what has been causing so many problems there in recent years.

The Weekly Take, Issue 287: "Lightning in a Bottle" Has Fizzled Out

The 2022-23 season was one which everyone associated with Napoli will never forget. Snapping a 33-year Serie A title drought, Gli Azzurri claimed the Scudetto in utterly dominant fashion. The Campanian club won the league by a staggering 16-point margin over Lazio, while players such as Khvicha Kvaratshkelia, Kim Min-jae, Frank Anguissa, and most notably of all, league top scorer and player of the year Victor Osimhen all had breakout seasons, putting them firmly in the spotlight heading into the off-season.

Napoli's dismal Serie A campaign continued after succumbing to a 1-0 away loss against arch-rivals Juventus. It was Napoli's third loss in their last four league matches. What made this loss even more of an indictment on Napoli's season thus far is the fact that they had 67% of the possession and dictated the flow of the match almost from opening kick-off. Despite this, they somehow only managed to muster one shot on target and ultimately left with nothing following Federico Gatti's 51st-minute goal.

Though it's impossible to pinpoint one singular factor as the main cause underpinning Napoli's struggles this season, there have been several which have taken a cumulative toll on the club. One of them has to be the internal instability caused over Osimhen's future at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. Following Osimhen's spectacular 2022-23 season, the Nigerian striker was subsequently linked with moves to clubs like Arsenal, Chelsea, Paris-Saint Germain, and Liverpool, but none ended up materializing. With no guarantee that Osimhen would remain at the club in 2023-24, targeting key signings over the off-season was made much more difficult.

This in turn leads to the point about the players they did sign. Napoli spent over €100 million to add seven players to their roster, of which two were immediately loaned out. Despite this large expenditure, however, except for Giacomo Raspadori, none of their signings have thus far moved the needle in any notable way. To add to this, Bayern Munich signed centre-back Kim for €50 million; he has since become a mainstay of the starting 11 at the Allianz Arena. Napoli, on the other hand, attempted to shore up the defense with the addition of Natan from Red Bull Bragantino; he has largely underwhelmed during his first few months at Napoli.

Napoli's success last season could also have contributed to their current struggles in two ways. It could be that they became somewhat complacent following one of the most dominant league title victories in recent memory. Napoli's decline this season could also be the result of struggling under the weight of their newfound expectations - perhaps finding it difficult to be the chased instead of the chaser for the first time.

This brings up another question: what's the plan for Napoli moving forward? While there have been transfer rumours surrounding the possibility of players such as Ferdi Kadıoğlu, Quinten Timber, and Arnau Martínez signing for Napoli in January, none are likely to be the catalyst that swings the race for a top-four spot and a Champions League berth in Napoli's favour. That being said, there is one player with whom Napoli have been linked who could play a key role should they land him: 20-year-old centre-back Giorgio Scalvini. However, Napoli would likely have to fend off interest from clubs such as Bayern Munich, Manchester United, and Manchester City to land one of Serie A's most promising young prospects.

It may also be time for Napoli to reconsider who the player they should build around really is. It might very well be the case that Osimhen turns out to be just one of many "one-season wonders" - and that Kvaratshkelia is the true club cornerstone for the future. At just 22, the Georgian winger's ceiling is more than a match for that of just about anyone not named Bellingham, Haaland, or Mbappé. Unlike Osimhen - and indeed, almost all of his teammates - Kvaratshkelia has actually improved instead of regressing this season, becoming a rare bright spot in a difficult campaign.

There were never any guarantees that Napoli's fortunes in 2023-24 would even come close to the iconic season they had before it. That said, very few thought they'd struggle quite like this. The "lightning in a bottle" they captured a year ago has almost completely disappeared.