The Weekly Take, Issue 210: The Only Realistic Challengers Next Season

The 2021-22 Bundesliga season has come to its conclusion, and to the surprise of absolutely no one, Bayern Munich once again won the league title by an enormous margin. At this point, Bayern can be all but penciled in for a league title every year for the foreseeable future... or can they?

Not many will have noticed, but there is a team which, if everything goes well during the off-season, might turn out to be Bayern's closest challengers next season. This team is Bayer Leverkusen, who closed out their Bundesliga campaign with a 2-1 victory over Freiburg. Exequiel Palacios scored Leverkusen's winning goal in the seventh minute of stoppage time. With the win, Leverkusen finished third in the league on 64 points, 13 behind Bayern. However, despite the large margin between themselves and Bayern, there is cause for optimism at the BayArena.

Although he will not return until the middle of next season, the play of Florian Wirtz following his return from a torn ACL will be crucial if Leverkusen are to make a serious title push. Prior to his injury, Wirtz was looking like a generational prospect in the making. At just 19, Wirtz seemed to be on a trajectory which would have seen him become not only an elite player at his peak, but even a potential future Ballon d'Or winner. Of course, a torn ACL is the one injury over which there will always be question marks over a player upon his return. That said, if Wirtz comes back at his previous level and continues his ascent accordingly, the sky is the limit - both for his career and his club.

Following a remarkable breakout season in which he established himself as one of the world's leading centre-forwards, Patrik Schick has established himself as the second of the team's two cornerstones alongside Wirtz. Sporting director Simon Rolfes has already confirmed that Leverkusen will not entertain any off-season request to sign the Czech, fending off potential interest from a number of top European clubs. After netting 24 league goals this season, Schick might even be a dark-horse contender for next season's European Golden Shoe. That may in turn make it far more difficult for Leverkusen to continue retaining Schick's services; however, as long as he remains at Leverkusen alongside a fully-fit Wirtz, their window remains open.

One important point about this Leverkusen team is the fact that all their key players are relatively young. This season, almost all of Leverkusen's best players were 26 or younger. In addition to Schick and Wirtz, other young players who were major contributors this season and figure to continue doing so going forward include Jonathan Tah, Moussa Diaby, Jeremie Frimpong, and Edmond Tapsoba. Diaby has already been linked with a move to Arsenal as well as a possible return to hometown club Paris Saint-Germain. This is a roster brimming with potential - if Bayern were to have a rare down year next season, the door might just be ever so slightly open for Leverkusen to take advantage.

There's no question that taking down the juggernaut that is Bayern is probably the mightiest task in the four major domestic leagues. However, now that Borussia Dortmund have lost Erling Haaland to Manchester City and RB Leipzig are still rebuilding after seeing former head coach Julian Nagelsmann leave for Bayern, Leverkusen may just have a puncher's chance to push Bayern all the way next season.

Certainly, no one is having any delusions - Leverkusen will not be favourites over Bayern by a long way. However, if Die Werkself can keep the "sharks" circling their club at bay for just one more transfer window and their young players continue to develop with one or two having a breakout season, something might just come of that. Add in Schick's continued dominance in front of goal and Wirtz coming back as good as before, and now there'd really be something going.

Of course, it has to be noted that for Leverkusen to win the league next season, they'll also need a healthy dose of luck - practically everything has to go perfectly. But as things stand right now, Bayer Leverkusen are quite possibly in position for their best season in many years.

The Weekly Take, Issue 209: One Final Push Coming?

A crucial Premier League match with major implications on both the league title race and the chase for a Champions League spot next season ended in a stalemate. Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur drew 1-1 at Anfield - a result which all but handed yet another league title to Manchester City. Son Heung-min opened the scoring for Spurs in the 56th minute with his 20th league goal of the season. Luis Díaz would later score Liverpool's equalizer. However, despite Liverpool's constant pressure and multitude of goalscoring opportunities, they just could not finish off a resilient Tottenham side.

The result leaves Tottenham four points behind North London rivals Arsenal with three matchdays remaining. While this may seem like an almost insurmountable gap to overcome, it must be kept in mind that Tottenham next play against the Gunners in what will surely be one of the most hotly-contested North London derbies in years. Only a victory will do for Tottenham; fail to do so and they can forget about the Champions League next season. That being said, a victory over Arsenal would not be unrealistic by any means. It would also leave Tottenham just one point behind the Champions League berths with two matches remaining.

Tottenham's future might very well hinge on their qualification for the Champions League. Fail to do so and they might see player after player leave Tottenham Hotspur Stadium during the coming off-season. It isn't out of the question that the likes of Hugo Lloris, Lucas Moura, Eric Dier, Pierre-Emile Højbjerg, and maybe, just maybe, even one or both of their superstar strike duo of Son and Harry Kane could seek an exit following a third consecutive failure to qualify - something that hasn't happened since the 2014-15 season.

As the club regarded as the least "glamorous" of the three major London teams, Tottenham arguably need a Champions League berth more than do Chelsea and Arsenal in order to boost their chances of attracting top players to the club. Tottenham have been linked with players including Marc Cucurella, João Palhinha, and Jordan Pickford. Tottenham are also expected to turn Dejan Kulusevski's loan stint from Juventus into a permanent move. However, these players might just opt out of choosing Tottenham if they cannot participate on the biggest continental stage.

A failure to qualify for the Champions League might also cause head coach Antonio Conte to leave Tottenham at the end of the season. He has presided over a rather tumultuous period ever since taking the position in November last year. Conte even publicly expressed his dissatisfaction with the team in general following a loss to Burnley in a Premier League match in February. Having achieved tremendous success at clubs such as Juventus, Chelsea, and Inter Milan, Conte's Tottenham stint has been a reality check. It would not be a surprise to see the Italian consider his options if Tottenham miss out on next season's Champions League.

Having said all of this, Tottenham nevertheless have at least a puncher's chance at a late rally to snatch fourth place from Arsenal. If they win out, they will finish on 71 points. After the North London derby, Tottenham's final two league matches will be against Burnley and Norwich City - two likely gimmes. Arsenal, on the other hand, still have Newcastle away. Win that and they more or less clinch fourth. However, that match also presents the clearest opportunity for either North London club to drop points after the derby. If Arsenal lose the derby, fail to beat Newcastle, but beat Everton, they will finish on either 69 or 70 points - not enough to deny Tottenham in this scenario.

Given their position in the league, all the pressure will be off Tottenham as they embark on the final stretch. Of course, even a final charge might prove to be too little, too late. Although many clubs won't be overly affected by one missed Champions League qualification, Tottenham Hotspur are not one of them. It really is do or die for Tottenham right now.

Time is running out on Tottenham's top-four hopes. Is it also running out on their spot at England's top table? We don't yet know, but it doesn't look good.

The Weekly Take, Issue 208: Not Just Any Ordinary Spot-Kick

The first leg of the Champions League semifinal between Manchester City and Real Madrid was a pulsating clash which ended up with City claiming a 4-3 victory to put them a step closer to a second consecutive appearance in the tournament's final. Led by outstanding performances from Kevin De Bruyne, Phil Foden, and Gabriel Jesus, City are now arguably the favourites to win the Champions League for the first time in the club's history.

However, the moment which set the football world ablaze during this match did not come from a City player; it was Real's Karim Benzema who more or less "broke the Internet". Late in the match, City defender Aymeric Laporte appeared to have committed a handball inside the penalty area with his team ahead 4-2. Referee István Kovács ruled in Real's favour, giving Los Merengues an opportunity to reduce the deficit heading into the second leg.

Benzema stepped forward to take the penalty kick and scored Real's third goal and his second of the match with a Panenka that left City goalkeeper Ederson with no chance at all. Given the technical skill required to pull off a successful Panenka as well as its extreme rarity and the message it sends to the opposing team, it should come as no surprise that within minutes, Benzema's goal had gone viral on social media the world over.

What truly makes a Panenka special is not merely its complexity. The true power of a Panenka rests in the psychological swing it wields. A converted Panenka is perhaps the ultimate form of trash talk: it clearly sends the message "I don't respect you one bit" while at the same time adding to the team's tally. Some matches that have hung in the balance have sometimes been tipped by a Panenka, while in others, a Panenka sparked a furious surge that led to an unlikely comeback.

Of course, the most legendary Panenka of them all was the original; it was scored by the player for whom this iconic technique would be named. The final of the 1976 European Championship between Czechoslovakia and West Germany came down to a penalty shootout. After West Germany's Uli Hoeneß missed his penalty, Antonín Panenka had the chance to win the tournament for Czechoslovakia. Using a technique which had never been seen up to that point, Panenka faked out West German goalkeeper Sepp Maier, then deftly chipped the ball down the middle to clinch the title.

Since then, countless penalty-takers have attempted this most daring of penalty techniques - some, of course, have experienced better results than have others. The likes of Zinedine Zidane, Andrea Pirlo, and Alexis Sánchez have all converted Panenkas under some of the most pressure-filled situations imaginable. Sánchez's was especially notable because just like Panenka's original, it was the winning penalty in the shootout of a continental tournament final. The Chilean's Panenka sealed a 4-1 shootout victory over arch-rivals Argentina in the 2015 Copa América final and in doing so, sealed his place in the region's football lore.

On the other hand, however, there have been countless instances when a Panenka did not go according to plan - often in humiliating ways. In 1992, Gary Lineker attempted a Panenka when playing for England against Brazil. A goal would have seen Lineker equal Bobby Charlton as England's all-time leading goalscorer. However, Lineker completely botched the execution; the penalty was easily saved.

More recently, former City striker Sergio Agüero missed a Panenka in a 2021 Premier League match against Chelsea. This penalty miss would go on to have far-reaching effects as the Chelsea players soon realized how little the City players thought of them. Thus, when the two teams had a rematch a few weeks later (this time in the Champions League final), Chelsea came out on top - they were almost certainly spurred on by the chip on their shoulder that Agüero's Panenka attempt gave them.

It may be a cliché, but it's true - the split-second before a Panenka attempt is one of the instances in football when it feels as though time is frozen. An iconic moment is almost certainly about to happen. The only question is if it will be iconic in a positive or negative way.

The Weekly Take, Issue 207: Approaching the Collapse

As a Borussia Dortmund fan since 2010, it pains me to write these words, but Dortmund's 3-1 loss to Bayern Munich in the latest edition of Der Klassiker not only handed Bayern a 10th consecutive Bundesliga title; it also all but ensured that unless there are some major changes in the off-season, Dortmund are probably done as a top team or even close to one for the foreseeable future.

Several days before the match, Dortmund's ace striker Erling Haaland all but confirmed that he would be joining Manchester City during the coming off-season. City confirmed that they are willing to pay Haaland's release clause of £63 million - a laughably low amount given the fact that even at just 21, he is already among the world's best centre-forwards and projects to be a perennial Ballon d'Or candidate throughout his prime years.

Dortmund's consent to this astonishingly low price is just more evidence of the incompetence of the club's front office who have completely squandered the two years and change that the Norwegian has spent at Signal Iduna Park. Again and again, he was not provided with the pieces around him which he needed. Though the acquisition of Donyell Malen from PSV Eindhoven almost a year ago was one of the club's better signings, Die Schwarzgelbe did not press ahead with further signings of a similar calibre and largely stayed put. The consequences of this inaction: a stunning group-stage exit in the Champions League, followed by an even more humiliating aggregate loss to Glasgow Rangers in the Europa League's round of 24.

Dortmund's unwillingness to strengthen their defense in particular has come back to bite them this season. Are Manuel Akanji, Thomas Meunier, and Raphaël Guerreiro really the foundation of a top-tier backline? Not even close - Dortmund have conceded 46 goals in the Bundesliga this season. There are nine teams in the Bundesliga alone who have conceded fewer. This is clear evidence that this season, Dortmund were almost single-handedly carried by their generational talent up front.

Ever since the departure of legendary head coach Jürgen Klopp in 2015, Dortmund have consistently shot themselves in the foot during their rebuild attempts. They have not used the money generated by sales of players such as Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Jadon Sancho, and Ousmane Dembélé wisely in the slightest. Although Dortmund hit the jackpot when they beat Juventus and Manchester United to the signing of Haaland in the winter of 2020, as has been shown, they did not capitalize on this at all.

Clearly, Haaland refuses to wait any longer for things to change - and rightly so. He is clearly too good for this Dortmund team which has never truly appreciated his greatness but has instead taken him for granted. The lack of value of his release clause is clear evidence of this fact. There's no good reason for him to stay at an increasingly moribund team in an unglamorous town - the longer Haaland stays at Dortmund, the more his career would suffer because of it.

One would expect Haaland's impending departure to begin to ring alarm bells in North Rhine-Westphalia. However, the past several years have been marked by both complacency and incompetence on the part of CEO Hans-Joachim Watzke as well as the entire front office. It's highly unlikely that Dortmund will change anything they've been doing. Without Haaland, they can thus expect to experience a steep decline on the pitch - if Dortmund do not finish in the top four of the Bundesliga next season and miss out on the following season's Champions League, it would certainly not come as a surprise.

Haaland obviously has a glittering career ahead of him - one which will see him score hundreds of goals and hopefully rack up title after title. By following in the footsteps of his father Alf-Inge and joining City, he has put himself in an excellent position to do exactly that. As for Dortmund, on the other hand, they will once again be left high and dry once Haaland leaves; it will be a situation entirely of their own doing. How long will it take them to be on the road back to the top? It's uncertain, but it could be a very, very long time indeed.

The Weekly Take, Issue 206: The Downward Spiral Carries On

For much of this season, it appeared that Sevilla were on course for their best La Liga campaign in many years and would be Real Madrid's closest challengers for the league title, given the struggles of perennial powerhouses Barcelona and Atlético Madrid. Sevilla have either been second or third in the league for large portions of this season and at some points, even seemed as though they were a serious threat to make a run at a first league title since the 1945-46 season.

However, Los Rojiblancos were handed a severe reality check in their most recent match against Real. The Andalusian club squandered a 2-0 lead and ended up losing 3-2. Karim Benzema continued his hot streak by scoring Real's winning goal in stoppage time and further bolstering his Ballon d'Or credentials in the process.

The loss left Sevilla in third place in the league, 15 points behind Real and with their grip on a Champions League spot next season slipping with each passing matchday. Earlier this season, Sevilla had been keeping pace with Real at the top of the league and appeared to be locks for a top-four finish. This is clearly no longer the case; they are now embroiled in a five-way battle for the last three Champions League spots with Barça, Atlético, Real Betis, and Real Sociedad.

In the last three months, Sevilla have won just three league matches and collected a mere 16 points out of a possible 36 while doing so. They also suffered a shocking elimination in the Europa League round of 16 when they lost to West Ham United 2-1 on aggregate.

The most glaring issue concerning this Sevilla team and the main reason behind their slump is their lack of output on the offensive end. Sevilla's leading league goalscorer thus far is Rafa Mir, who has just nine goals to his name this season. It isn't as though the rest of the team are necessarily picking up the slack, either - Sevilla's team total of 46 league goals ranks them well behind every other club in the top six except Real Sociedad. It should go without saying that such figures will clearly not cut it at this level.

In my most recent post about Sevilla, I mentioned that it would have been in their best interest to pursue a centre-forward in the mid-season transfer window. Sevilla did attempt to address this issue by bringing in Anthony Martial on a loan deal from Manchester United. However, in a turn of events that just about everyone should have seen coming, Martial has made absolutely no positive impact at all since arriving at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán. His career numbers should have been a clear red flag - only once in his career has he averaged more than half a goal per match during the course of a season. Unsurprisingly, many Sevilla fans have already soured on the Frenchman and understandably cannot wait for his loan deal to end. This was an ill-advised acquisition and a waste of an open spot which could've been filled by a far more capable centre-forward.

Ever since January, Sevilla have also struggled to close matches out. Their 12-match slump includes seven draws of which at least three or four could have been wins. Perhaps it was their relative lack of experience in such a position in the league that made the difference, but it was obvious in many of those matches that Sevilla seemed much tighter and tenser, especially as the final whistle approached. This is something they will undoubtedly have to work on for the rest of this season as well as throughout the off-season. Signing one or two players with significant league title race experience might prove to help.

That said, it's not all bad news for Sevilla. Their defense is still as sturdy as ever; the 25 goals it has conceded ranks as the fewest in La Liga and has more or less carried them all season long. Marcos Acuña and Jules Koundé have been especially impressive during this current campaign.

Nevertheless, throughout the second half of this season, Sevilla's frailties have been on full display. Regardless of whether they make it to next season's Champions League, there are obvious problems to be addressed in the off-season. A season which once seemed so promising might just end up being Sevilla's most disappointing in recent memory.

The Weekly Take, Issue 205: Halfway to the Most Astonishing Exit

When the draw for the Champions League quarterfinals was released, no one paid much attention to the fixture pitting Villarreal against Bayern Munich. Villarreal, currently in seventh place in La Liga with just 45 points to their name and not even close to a Champions League spot for next season, were widely expected to be easily swept aside by the prohibitive favourites to win European football's biggest tournament this season.

However, as it turned out, Bayern failed to deliver in a way that almost no one could have seen coming. After losing the first leg 1-0 due to an early goal scored by Arnaut Danjuma, the Bavarian powerhouse will have it all to do when they host the Spanish club at the Allianz Arena in next week's second leg.

To make matters even worse for Bayern, this was not a case of a "smash and grab" victory. Villarreal outplayed Bayern for almost the entirety of the match and arguably should have won by more. Bayern were also clearly inferior on the tactical front - a stunning development given the fact that at the age of 34, head coach Julian Nagelsmann is regarded as one of the best young coaches in world football. Despite this fact, Nagelsmann was easily outwitted by his veteran counterpart Unai Emery.

Looking at the starting lineups, one could argue that Nagelsmann overthought matters by attempting to catch Villarreal off-guard. This could be seen in his decisions to deploy Kingsley Coman on the right as well as Serge Gnabry on the left rather than in their usual spots. One could also make the case that Leroy Sané should have started in place of either Coman or Gnabry as his two-way play as well as his dribbling and passing skills would have done much to open up the field and present Bayern with several clear goalscoring chances.

The decision-making on the part of Bayern's playmakers was also extremely questionable. Again and again, they would choose to freeze out Robert Lewandowski for just about no reason at all. Almost every time he would find himself in position to create a chance for himself, he would not receive the ball. Even on the few occasions when he had the ball in the final third, he would almost always find himself stranded without any help. In short, Bayern were disjointed, discombobulated, and a mere shadow of the team which they had been for the vast majority of this season.

That being said, Bayern are probably still the favourites to advance to the semifinals. It must be kept in mind that in the first leg of the round of 16 tie against Red Bull Salzburg, they only managed a 1-1 draw against the Austrian underdogs in the first leg before storming back to destroy Salzburg 7-1 in the second. This is a Bayern team which has several "gears"; they can seemingly flip the switch and play at the peak of their powers at any given time.

Nevertheless, even if they beat Villarreal in the second leg and advance to the final four, serious changes will need to be made if Bayern are to win the Champions League for the seventh time in the club's history. These tactics and this level of play will simply not cut it against Liverpool, the team Bayern will likely play against in the semifinals.

Could this have been a case of complacency and underestimation of Villarreal? More than likely. Bayern appeared to have bought into their own hype and strode into Estadio de la Cerámica assuming that they would be handed the victory on a plate. Perhaps this mentality was fueled by their unchallenged domination of the Bundesliga - a league in which they are about to win for the 10th consecutive season by a large margin, as they always do.

For Bayern, a quarterfinal elimination at the hands of Villarreal would be one of the most shocking upsets in Champions League history. Yet, that is the reality of the situation that Bayern face right now. While they can (and arguably should) turn it around, their spot in the semifinals which once seemed guaranteed now looks very shaky indeed.

We could be on the verge of witnessing a failure of truly epic proportions.

The Weekly Take, Issue 204: La Xavineta Continues to Roll On

In November 2021, Barcelona's season lay in ruins. The Catalan giants were in ninth place in La Liga and on their way out of the Champions League group stage. The club was in disarray both on the field and off it - not even the firing of former head coach Ronald Koeman did much to stem their horrendous run of form.

Barça proceeded to surprise many by selecting Xavi, the legendary midfielder who spent 17 amazing years as a Blaugrana player, as Koeman's replacement. Prior to his appointment at Camp Nou, Xavi's only prior coaching experience had been two-and-a-half years at Qatari club Al-Sadd - not exactly a stint which would've prepared him for life at the helm of a major European club.

As it turned out, however, the selection of Xavi has paid major dividends - a fact underscored once again in Barça's 1-0 victory over Sevilla during the most recent La Liga matchday. Pedri scored the only goal of the match to elevate Barça to second place in the league - ahead of Atlético Madrid and Sevilla on head-to-head record. Barça have also played one match fewer than both of those teams.

Over the past several years, there have been several glaring examples of players who have struggled after making the transition to the dugout. Names that come to mind include Ole Gunnar Solskjær, Santiago Solari, and most notably of all, Andrea Pirlo. Given this trend, some apprehension surrounding Xavi would have been understandable. However, much to the satisfaction of the Barça faithful, Xavi has bucked this trend without much difficulty thus far.

Xavi's tactical approach is clearly superior to the obsolete methods which his predecessors had utilized. High pressing is the cornerstone of Xavi's tactics; Barça's front three have been pressing far more under Xavi than they did under Koeman. This tactical change has brought Barça's playstyle more in line with the current metagame.

Xavi has also brought back the inversion of the full-backs - something which had not been a fixture at Barça for several years. The interplay between the full-backs, wingers, and central midfielders tends to open up much more space for strikers and wingers to go forward and attack. It should thus come as no surprise that with Xavi at the helm, Barça have become far more lethal in the final third.

Unlike Koeman, Xavi also seems to have won over the players in the locker room. He clearly connects with and relates to just about every player on a personal level. These positive vibes have permeated the team; they are also a reason why mid-season acquisition Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang appears to be a rejuvenated player. When Aubameyang left Arsenal for Catalonia by way of a free transfer, it appeared that the Gabonese striker was well and truly washed up. This no longer seems to be the case - a fact made most evident by his two goals in El Clásico, when Barça beat arch-rivals Real Madrid 4-0. Such a transformation could not have taken place without Xavi.

Barça have always taken immense pride in La Masia - their iconic youth academy. Since Xavi is a proud dyed-in-the-wool Catalan who became one of La Masia's most successful products, some wondered if this would manifest itself in his coaching and team selection by playing favourites and being biased towards the club's academy graduates. Fortunately, this has not been the case. While Xavi has given heavy minutes to La Masia products such as Gavi, Eric García, Nico González, and veteran duo Sergio Busquets and Gerard Piqué, this has not been at the expense of key non-academy players. On top of this, Xavi was one of the key orchestrators of Barça's mid-season signing of Ferran Torres from Manchester City. The Valencia-born striker has slotted himself into the team without a hitch, adding even more firepower to Barça's surprisingly potent frontline.

Although it's still early in Xavi's tenure, the signs are undoubtedly promising. That said, Xavi just seems to "get it" in the way that other ex-players who moved to the other side of the touchline never did. He is already a Barça legend; however, the opportunity to make his name stand alone in the club's pantheon now lies before him. His first steps in the second part of this journey appear to be all the right ones up to this point.