The Weekly Take, Issue 286: This Is Where They Really Stand

If ever anyone had any questions about how large the skill gap between Europe's strongest domestic football leagues and the rest really was, those questions were undoubtedly put to rest following one fixture in this penultimate Champions League group stage matchday.

Benfica, who had already been eliminated from the tournament, blew a 3-0 half-time lead to finish with a 3-3 draw against Inter Milan. João Mário's hat-trick within the first 34 minutes was only good enough to give the Lisbon club a share of the points, as six minutes after the break Marko Arnautović reduced the gap before Davide Frattesi added another for Inter soon after. In the 72nd minute, veteran striker Alexis Sánchez equalized from the penalty spot following Nicolás Otamendi's foul on Inter substitute Marcus Thuram. Benfica's chances of victory were all but ended four minutes from the end of regulation time when they lost centre-back António Silva to a VAR-aided red card.

The reigning Primeira Liga champions, Benfica have established themselves as something of a Champions League overperformer in recent season. The Lisbon club have reached the tournament's quarterfinals in both of the past two seasons and have advanced from the group stage four times since the 2015-16 season - an impressive set of results given that this is a team which hasn't been battle-tested against truly elite teams domestically.

However, in some ways it was exactly that very lack of high-quality opposition which came back to haunt them against Inter. Despite having won nine of their first 11 league matches, Benfica play in the Primeira Liga, not in one of Europe's four major football leagues. Inter, on the other hand, have to play against Juventus, Napoli, and cross-town rivals AC Milan twice or more every season. While Sporting CP and Porto are no slouches themselves, they're certainly not up to the standard of the top teams from Italy, Germany, England, or Spain.

It's more than likely that a team from a stronger league would have held on to the large half-time lead that Benfica had instead of completely crumbling after the interval. There's something to be said about forging that "big-game mentality" in the furnace of a competitive domestic league. Though it may have been by no fault of their own, Benfica have not had the chance to do so - and that has been evident throughout this Champions League campaign.

When Benfica were drawn into Group D alongside Inter, Real Sociedad, and Red Bull Salzburg, many assumed that they would most likely qualify for the round of 16 in second place in the group. There was even an argument to be made that they had a puncher's chance of topping Group D. Instead, their draw against Inter has ended up being their only point of their campaign thus far. Now, Benfica must win their final group match against Salzburg to even finish third in the group and enter the Europa League.

The importance of playing in a highly competitive domestic league cannot be underestimated as far as Champions League performance is concerned. The prime example, of course, is Paris Saint-Germain. Despite possessing wealth far beyond that of even most other elite clubs and easing to the Ligue 1 title almost every year, PSG have never seriously threatened to win the Champions League apart from the outlier - the pandemic-afflicted 2019-20 season. The fact that in spite of their array of superstars and enormous amounts of money spent, PSG - by far the strongest team not playing in a major European league - find a way to blow it every year unless a freak world-changing event takes place (and even then they lost in the final), certainly says something.

Think of everything that was just mentioned about PSG and apply it to a club like Benfica - one which is still relatively competitive but doesn't have that kind of money. The growing skill gap between the top leagues and the rest is a major reason why we will almost certainly never again see a Champions League title go to a club outside those four powerhouse leagues.

While no one seriously believed that Benfica had a chance to win it all, their Champions League performance this season has nevertheless been tremendously underwhelming. It's a clear indictment of not only them, but the Primeira Liga and the rest of Europe's "lesser" leagues as well.

The Weekly Take, Issue 285: Everything in Place for a League Title Run

The latest edition of the Derby d'Italia saw Inter Milan maintain their two-point lead at the top of Serie A following a 1-1 away draw against Juventus. Dušan Vlahović gave Juve the lead after scoring in the 27th minute, only for Lautaro Martínez to equalize for Inter just six minutes later with his 13th league goal this season. The Argentinian striker is the runaway leader in this season's Capocannoniere race; his equalizing goal extended his lead over his nearest rivals to six.

Last season, Inter's league campaign certainly did not go according to plan. Finishing in third place, 18 points behind league champions Napoli, was a significant decline from the season before when the Nerazzurri were in title contention all the way up to the very last matchday. However, it wasn't all bad for Inter; they did make a somewhat unexpected run to the Champions League final where they lost 1-0 to Manchester City.

During the off-season, Inter underwent a significant squad overhaul. Notable names who left the blue half of the San Siro between seasons included Edin Džeko, Romelu Lukaku, André Onana, and Marcelo Brozović. Although Inter didn't spend heavily over the off-season, they certainly spent wisely. For a cumulative fee of less than €60 million, Inter added players such as Yann Sommer, Benjamin Pavard, and Francesco Acerbi to their roster. On top of that, Inter even landed Marcus Thuram on a free transfer from Borussia Mönchengladbach. This is how a roster overhaul ought to be done: one involving careful, judicious spending with a view towards players who would best suit the team. Inter have done exactly that.

The next point I'll bring up is one which I briefly alluded to earlier but merits further detail: the ascension of Lautaro Martínez to genuine superstar status. Ever since his dismal performance at the 2022 World Cup in which he contributed next to nothing to Argentina's eventual triumph, the man from Buenos Aires has been on a tear. Martínez finished last season with 21 league goals, placing him second behind Napoli's Victor Osimhen. Martínez has not only picked up where he left off; he has taken the next step - one which many assumed he might never have following his underwhelming showing in Qatar.

At this point, Martínez is clearly the best striker and arguably the best player in Serie A. He is now at the level where he could be the ace who not only spearheads a serious challenge for the Scudetto, but also another deep Champions League run - and if things break in Inter's favour, there is a possibility that they might even go all the way this time around. Martínez's exploits have gone somewhat under the radar this season because of the continued outstanding play of Erling Haaland, Harry Kane, and Jude Bellingham; however, at the rate at which he's going, everyone will soon have to take note of what Martínez has been doing at Inter.

That being said, the match against Juve did expose certain issues which could threaten to derail Inter's season. Inter's back three was not the most convincing against their opponents from Turin. Stefan De Vrij and Matteo Darmian were outplayed by Juve's attackers almost right from opening kick-off. It was, in fact, De Vrij's error that led to Vlahović's goal. Although Inter have thus far conceded a league-low seven goals this season, their backline has nonetheless shown the occasional lapse such as that against Juve. They definitely can't afford too many more instances like those as the season progresses.

Despite having had 66% of the possession, one could also fault Inter for being somewhat passive. Inter only attempted eight shots in the entire match despite almost doubling their opponents' time with the ball. There's no point in hogging all the possession if there would be no end product. Inter quite simply have to take charge once they have possession. There wasn't enough of that against Juve.

All that being said, the signs are generally pointing in the right direction for Inter Milan. This team has established itself as the early favourite to win Serie A after building off the momentum from last season's Champions League run. Although it remains to be seen if they can keep it going, these first few months have set the tone for what appears to be a bounce-back season in the league couples with another potential deep run in continental play.

The Weekly Take, Issue 284: Signs of a Possible Let-Up?

The standout fixture of the most recent set of CONMEBOL 2026 World Cup qualifiers served as perfect evidence why as far as rivalry matchups are concerned, a team's form heading into the match as well as the team's outright odds to win take on a diminished importance. As is so often the case, this one came down to "who wanted it more".

Argentina lost a match for the first time since winning the 2022 World Cup after Uruguay notched a 2-0 away victory against them. Barcelona centre-back Ronald Araújo opened the scoring for La Celeste shortly before halftime. Just three minutes before the end of regulation time, Liverpool striker Darwin Núñez scored Uruguay's second to seal the victory and slice Argentina's lead atop the qualifying leaderboard to just two points.

Uruguay displayed tremendous grit and guts to end La Albiceleste's unbeaten streak of 14 matches, keeping Argentina unsettled and on the back foot from almost the opening whistle. Additionally, while this may be just one match, it does raise further questions of this Argentina team - especially with the Copa América to be played at the end of the season.

After reaching the pinnacle of international football, it would only have been natural for Argentina's form to have dipped soon after. Like all other World Cup champions, every player on that Argentina team fulfilled a lifetime goal when they defeated France in Doha to reclaim the world title after 36 years. However, there is another layer to this matter as far as this Argentina team is concerned: the manner by which they won it.

Argentina's World Cup victory last year undoubtedly ranks among the most emotionally- and sentimentally-charged victories not only in World Cup or even football history, but in sports history. Long before the squad even arrived in Qatar, there had always been an undercurrent of "win it for Lionel Messi" that served to drive the team on to greater heights. This was certainly understandable - at the time, only a World Cup victory was needed for Messi to expunge any remaining doubts and cement himself as unquestionably the greatest footballer of all time.

Of course, Messi and Argentina delivered in a climax seemingly taken directly from a sports movie. However, after the tournament's end, one might have wondered about the victory's effects on the players' psyches. The physical exertions of the tournament aside, the sheer mental and emotional drain such a win could have had on the team might have led Argentina to have come out flat in the matches immediately following the World Cup.

This initially appeared not to be the case. Prior to this Uruguay match, Argentina did not lose any of their eight matches since the World Cup. That being said, it had to be noted that in the qualifiers for the next World Cup, Argentina's most difficult matches were yet to come - starting with this match against Uruguay at La Bombonera. Argentina's next match will also be against an arch-rival: next up for them is Brazil away next week.

Going back to the Uruguay match, what stood out most negatively for Argentina was the fact that they were outworked and out-hustled. This is particularly damning given the fact that this was a rivalry match-up - the type of match which one would expect players to enter the field full of vigour, passion, and energy. None of those words described Argentina in this match - and one has to wonder: could this be the first sign of the post-World Cup let-up? The upcoming match against Brazil will surely answer a lot of questions.

If Argentina once again drop points against Brazil after being a step behind from kick-off, serious doubts have to be cast over their Copa chances in half a year's time. While they would not be the first team to have ever experienced a decline after winning the World Cup, to see it happen in this way would certainly be eye-opening.

Of course, to outright dismiss Argentina's prospects going forward would be foolish indeed. That being said, the match against Uruguay proves that the cracks may be starting to show themselves. More performances like that - which would not even be all that unrealistic - would not bode well for their chances of defending their continental title.

The Weekly Take, Issue 283: On the Cusp of a New Low

Ever since Paris Saint-Germain's takeover by Qatar Sports Investments in 2011, their Champions League campaigns have invariably ended in failure - and often in spectacular and shocking fashion to boot. This season, PSG might somehow manage to top themselves once again.

After a 2-1 Champions League group stage loss against AC Milan, PSG find themselves in a precarious spot with regard to qualification for the round of 16. Centre-back Milan Škriniar opened the scoring for PSG in the ninth minute before Rafael Leão scored the Rossoneri's equalizer just three minutes later. Shortly after the half-time break, Olivier Giroud's goal clinched all three points for Milan, whose victory kept them firmly in contention for a place in the last 16.

While PSG are still in second place in Group F behind Borussia Dortmund, they could realistically fail to qualify for the round of 16 and slip into the Europa League or even be eliminated from continental play altogether. PSG have six points with two matches remaining - just one point ahead of Milan and two ahead of Newcastle United.

In spite of their unprecedented run of Champions League knockout stage futility, at the very least PSG have never failed to qualify for it ever since the Qatari acquisition. This might very well change this season. Having been drawn in this season's Group of Death, PSG are arguably just as likely to lose their last two group stage matches as they are to win them. Such a turn of events would eliminate PSG from the tournament - and given their track record, this certainly cannot be ruled out.

As has always been the case, PSG spent an enormous amount of money on transfers during the off-season. The Parisian club added players including Manuel Ugarte, Lucas Hernandez, Ousmane Dembélé, and Randal Kolo Muani; Gonçalo Ramos also arrived at the Parc des Princes by way of a loan deal from Benfica. What must also be noted, however, is the myriad of exits from the club. PSG attempted to undergo a full-scale overhaul in just one off-season after Neymar, Lionel Messi, Marco Verratti, Sergio Ramos, Julian Draxler, and countless others left the club while new signing Xavi Simons went to RB Leipzig on loan - where he has emerged as a star in the making.

With so many squad changes over such a short time period, some team chemistry issues were naturally to have been expected - but not many could have anticipated it to have been on this level. Throughout this Champions League group stage, PSG have often looked disjointed and incoherent. They have often played more like 11 individuals than one unit - this was once again apparent against Milan.

In a post-match interview, PSG midfielder Vitinha noted that PSG allowed Milan to dictate the tempo of the match, especially in the second half. This has been a common theme of PSG's matches this season - in particular when playing as the away team. What really doesn't help PSG is the fact that their last group-stage match is against Dortmund away. PSG will come face-to-face with the iconic "Yellow Wall" - arguably the most intimidating home stand in world football. Couple that with PSG's propensity for choking under pressure and you have a seemingly shocking elimination waiting to happen.

It would, of course, be a fool's errand to completely write PSG off at this point. On their day they are more than capable of out-talenting any other team on the planet, let alone in this group. They also have by far the group's best player in Kylian Mbappé. On paper, one would expect them to live up to their billing, win out, and top the group.

Yet, it has always felt as though PSG are a step away from disaster - and this has perhaps never felt more true as it does now. The biggest issue at this club goes beyond any player, coach, or even owner - it's a systemic issue. For all their money and their glamorous exterior, PSG fear the spotlight and regardless of personnel have invariably shrunk when the time has come to step up.

If Paris Saint-Germain do get knocked out of the Champions League in the group stage, do not be surprised if they once again attempt an overhaul next off-season - only for it to once again amount to nothing.

The Weekly Take, Issue 282: Another Failure to Seize the Moment

This season could easily have been so different for Borussia Dortmund.

Having come closer to a first Bundesliga title in 11 years last season than at any point since - only being denied in the season's final minutes by a goal scored by Bayern Munich midfielder Jamal Musiala - Dortmund could easily have built off that season's momentum, especially their resurgence in the back half of the campaign, to mount another serious league title challenge in 2023-24.

Even after selling superstar midfielder Jude Bellingham to Real Madrid for €103 million, Dortmund were now equipped with a sudden infusion of money which in turn could have bankrolled key signings that would've fuelled a title push. Instead, Dortmund not only did not make any signings that particularly moved the needle; they also did not even come close to using all of the money with which the Bellingham transfer provided them. Felix Nmecha and Marcel Sabitzer, while not scrubs by any means, are nowhere near the level needed to take Die Schwarzgelbe to the next level while Niclas Füllkrug has regressed sharply just one season after being the league's top scorer.

For this as well as several other reasons, Dortmund's 4-0 trouncing at Bayern's hands in the latest edition of Der Klassiker cannot be completely dismissed as a one-off. Harry Kane, Bayern's own big-money off-season signing, continued his molten-hot start to the season by netting a hat-trick. The English striker's three goals took his league tally to the season to a staggering 15 after just 10 matches. Although only about a quarter of the season has passed, it now seems evident that Dortmund do not have what it takes to bring the Bundesliga trophy to Signal Iduna Park this season.

The lack of proper investment over the off-season was not the only issue that made itself evident in Dortmund's crushing loss. For many seasons now, it seems as though Dortmund themselves do not believe that they can actually beat Bayern. This has held true even when players like Bellingham and Erling Haaland played for the club. Time and again, Dortmund have come up short when the pressure has been at its greatest and the stakes have been highest.

Ever since Jürgen Klopp left the Dortmund dugout in 2015 for Liverpool, this "championship mentality" has been conspicuously missing at Dortmund - especially when playing in Der Klassiker. From the beginning of the 2017-18 season to today, Dortmund have played in 13 Bundesliga editions of Der Klassiker. In those 13 matches, they have won just once and drawn just once. The other 11 were all losses. Over those same 13 matches, Dortmund have scored 15 goals while conceding 44 - a statistic which is such an outlier it scarcely seems believable.

This also brings up another pertinent question: what exactly is the end target for Dortmund? Not just for this season - for the next several seasons to come as well. Are they truly willing to settle for being a mere "pipeline club" known for churning out young talent and sending them to top clubs until the next superstar on the level of Bellingham or Haaland turns up? Though they may claim to be in it for the silverware, their actions and subsequent results tell a different story entirely.

On top of all of this, Dortmund are now at heightened risk of losing three more promising youngsters sooner than they'd have liked - Karim Adeyemi, Youssoufa Moukoko, and Giovanni Reyna. One wonders how much longer the three of them would be willing to put up with this and instead head for a club which truly believes in its ability to win big matches and trophies.

Even if Dortmund strengthens the squad by acquiring new players in January, that's not likely to make as much of a difference as one might initially assume. What's been going on at Dortmund goes beyond any individual player - just ask Bellingham or Haaland, for example. Dortmund's consistent failure to step up under pressure is a systemic issue from the top and all the way down. At this point, not even a DFB-Pokal win is likely - even after Bayern's shock elimination against Saarbrucken in the round of 32.

At this point, the question "what's next for Borussia Dortmund?" almost seems pointless. Unless something radically changes, it's likely to be more of the same for at least several more years to come.