Thursday, September 21, 2023

The Weekly Take, Issue 276: Back with a Vengeance

Despite being fresh off winning the Bundesliga title for a record-extending 11th consecutive season, last season could only be described as "tumultuous" for Bayern Munich. Most notably, the pre-season departure of legendary centre-forward Robert Lewandowski to Barcelona left a major gap within the team. Bayern then compounded this issue with the controversial, ill-advised signing of Sadio Mané from Liverpool.

Following the firing of former head coach Julian Nagelsmann and his subsequent replacement with Thomas Tuchel, Die Roten left it until almost literally the last minute to clinch the league title. Without Jamal Musiala's late winning goal against Köln, Bayern would have surrendered the league title to arch-rivals Borussia Dortmund. Additionally, Bayern were soundly beaten in the Champions League quarterfinals, losing 4-1 on aggregate to eventual champions Manchester City.

Heading into this season, Bayern knew they would have to switch things up if they were to make a genuine Champions League title challenge. The Bavarian club made many major roster changes this past off-season. A total of 20 players left Bayern including Lucas Hernandez, Mané, Benjamin Pavard, and Ryan Gravenberch. It was the money generated from these departures that bankrolled the big-money signings of Kim Min-jae from Napoli and Harry Kane from Tottenham Hotspur.

This new-look Bayern squad started their 2023-24 Champions League campaign with a 4-3 home victory over Manchester United. Bayern entered half-time with a 2-0 lead via goals scored by Leroy Sané and Serge Gnabry. United striker Rasmus Højlund and Kane traded goals shortly after the break. Casemiro scored two late goals for United to reduce the deficit, but Mathys Tel added another for Bayern in between to clinch all three points.

Although Bayern were widely expected to win this match, they nevertheless showed that they are at least close to, if not at, their level of two seasons ago. Having decisively outplayed United for the vast majority of the match, Bayern were somewhat unfortunate to win by just one goal. Bayern actually had two shots strike the post.

Bayern's revamped attack appears poised to do significant damage to opposing defenses for the rest of the season. Kane has slotted into the starting centre-forward spot seamlessly and his synergy with Musiala, Gnabry, and Sané has been obvious. Bayern have now regained that attacking punch which left with Lewandowski and had largely been missing throughout last season. The €100 million that Bayern paid Tottenham to sign Kane is quickly turning out to be money wisely spent.

Bayern's impressive depth was also clearly on display. Kingsley Coman and Tel were both highly impressive off the bench, while Matthijs de Ligt did not even enter the match. To win the Champions League, it takes more than just the superstars. This is a seriously loaded Bayern team - very much more so than last season's iteration. On this Bayern team, players like Coman, Tel, de Ligt, Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting, Raphaël Guerreiro, and Thomas Müller - all players who would be regular starters at almost any other club - do not even receive regular playing time. With a bench unit of that calibre, Bayern are well-positioned to endure the war of attrition that is the Champions League.

That being said, almost no one would claim Bayern to be the outright favourites to win it all at the moment. Barça, City, and Real Madrid are the consensus picks in the early going. If there is any area of concern for Bayern, it would be at centre-back. Neither de Ligt nor Dayot Upamecano have been all that impressive thus far. This has been reflected in a key weakness of Bayern's this season - frequent loss of possession in threatening areas. It would not be all that surprising to see Bayern pursue a backup or even starting centre-back to be played alongside Kim during the January transfer window.

Bayern Munich have been a Champions League staple for close to two decades now. Since the 2004-05 season, Bayern have been absent from the Champions League quarterfinals on just four occasions and only twice since 2008-09 - a statistic to which they will almost certainly add this season. The real question, of course, is what will happen once they reach that point. In any case, the match against United as well as the Bundesliga victories before it have made it clear: Bayern are well and truly back.

Saturday, September 16, 2023

The Weekly Take, Issue 275: One and Done?

The first Derby della Madonnina of the season had an added layer of intrigue to it as both Inter Milan and AC Milan came nowhere near last season's Serie A title despite both having been pegged as favourites at the season's outset. Inter finished third in the league, 18 points behind runaway champions Napoli while their cross-town rivals finished a further two points behind.

Despite reaching the Champions League semifinals for the first time since winning it all with their legendary 2006-07 squad, Milan's dismal league campaign was something no one associated with the red half of the San Siro could have seen coming. After all, the Rossoneri had been fresh off winning their first league title in 11 years.

However, a feeble Scudetto defense which saw them finish fourth and a whopping 20 points from top spot compelled Milan to reshuffle the deck this past off-season. Bankrolled by the pricey departure of midfielder Sandro Tonali to Newcastle United, Milan spent heavily in July and August. Milan shelled out over €110 million in transfer fees to bring in seven players including Tijjani Reijnders, Christian Pulisic, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, and Noah Okafor; three others arrived by way of free transfers. A retooled and reloaded Milan team seemed primed to once again mount a serious title challenge.

Such ideas came to a sudden pause after this matchday's derby. Milan were utterly taken apart by Inter, losing 5-1. Inter midfielder Henrikh Mkhitaryan produced a dominant display, scoring two goals, registering an assist, and dictating play throughout the entire match. Milan were outclassed in every aspect of play and looked nothing like a team which was coming off a three-game league win streak.

At this point, one has to wonder if that single league title victory in the 2021-22 season will end up being the solitary high point of this era's Milan team. Despite reaching last season's Champions League semifinals, at no point during the tournament were they regarded as serious contenders to win the whole thing. Based on what was shown in the derby, Milan appear to have taken a step backwards for a second consecutive season.

Milan's performance against Inter could only be described as disjointed and out of sync. Théo Hernandez, Malick Thiaw, and Reijnders were especially dismal. Hernandez and Thiaw came nowhere close to being able to handle Inter's attacking play; Thiaw was also culpable for Inter's second goal scored by Marcus Thuram. Reijnders, along with fellow Milan midfielders Ruben Loftus-Cheek and Rade Krunić, was completely out of his depth when dealing with Inter's pressing.

Questions also have to be asked about head coach Stefano Pioli. By the end of last season, a vocal minority within the club had begin to call for his firing. After this result, those voices will only grow louder. His tactical approach often left Milan devoid of options despite having 60% of the possession. He also prioritized moving inside from the right flanks but completely failed to set up any numerical advantages, adding to the aforementioned low-quality possession.

Pioli has a tendency to out-think himself and try to get "too cute" - a negative trait which once again reared its head here. Last season, in far too many matches Pioli went with tactical approaches which flew in the face of conventional wisdom - only for them to blow up in his team's face, costing them many valuable points. He once again did so against Inter by utilizing a highly inadvisable box midfield setup; the outcome speaks for itself. At this point, one has to wonder just how many chances Pioli has left in the Milan dugout.

Milan's crushing derby loss exposed just how far they have fallen in one season and change. It doesn't get any easier from here - they have their work cut out for them in the Champions League after having been drawn into this season's Group of Death alongside Paris Saint-Germain, Borussia Dortmund, and Newcastle. Finishing dead last in the group and missing out on even the "second chance" of a Europa League spot certainly isn't out of the question.

While it's still way too early to write off AC Milan's prospects this season, the signs at this point are certainly not encouraging. Something will have to seriously change if they are to make a serious push to reclaim the Scudetto and avoid the "one-hit wonder" label.

Saturday, September 9, 2023

The Weekly Take, Issue 274: Their Best Chance Might Have Gone

The latest set of Euro 2024 qualifying fixtures featured a match between Ukraine and England at the Stadion Miejski. Adding to the hype behind this match was the red-hot form of Jude Bellingham, whose outstanding play at Real Madrid in his first matches as a Los Merengues player has put the entire football world on notice.

England ended up surrendering their previously perfect qualifying record with a 1-1 draw. Oleksandr Zinchenko opened the scoring for Ukraine in the 26th minute, only for Kyle Walker to equalize for the Three Lions shortly before halftime. It was the Manchester City full-back's first career goal in international play.

Most would have expected England to have had little trouble in dispatching their Eastern European opponents; however, this was certainly not the case. Despite having by far the bulk of the possession and restricting Ukraine to just two shots, England left with just a share of the points.

Although it's likely too soon to draw any solid conclusions, it would not be all that surprising were it to transpire that this current England squad, in spite of their immense talent, might already have missed the boat as far as winning a major international title is concerned. In the 2022 World Cup, England were handed a relatively easy bracket leading up to a blockbuster quarterfinal clash against arch-rivals France. England's 2-1 loss following a critical Harry Kane penalty miss saw them exit the tournament in the last eight - a hugely disappointing result given that some had tipped them as a possible contender to go all the way.

If the match against Ukraine is anything to go by, England appear to have taken a step backwards since the World Cup - this was not even close to the calibre of play needed if they are to make a serious push to win Euro 2024. The most glaring issue for England right now has to be up front. James Maddison is clearly not the long-term answer out wide, while at this point one has to wonder if Bukayo Saka is truly the sidekick that Kane needs for that additional attacking punch. To put this into perspective, France are fielding Kylian Mbappé and Antoine Griezmann; Portugal, Bernardo Silva and Rafael Leão; and Spain, Marco Asensio, Dani Olmo, and superstar in the making Lamine Yamal. What England have been putting out just won't cut it at this level.

At the moment, England appear to have too many redundancies within the team. Though last year's World Cup team was probably the most talented group that England have ever brought to a World Cup, one key element of their downfall was the fact that the skillsets of far too many players overlapped. Consider the likes of Bellingham, Jack Grealish, Mason Mount, Saka, Marcus Rashford, and Phil Foden. On paper that seems like quite the collection of players. However, on the field itself, it soon became obvious that England's level of play suffered when too many of them were playing at the same time in similar roles.

England's lack of a true starter-quality defensive midfielder has to be a cause for concern as well. Despite the large fee that Arsenal paid to sign him from West Ham, the jury is still out on whether Declan Rice is truly England's future at the position - one which has become increasingly important in the current tactical metagame.

Of course, the elephant in the room has to be addressed: Gareth Southgate. After taking over in the England dugout in 2016, Southgate's early success in the 2018 World Cup followed by his run to the Euro 2020 final seemed to put him in a solid position. However, his stock took a nosedive following the 2022 World Cup and many have developed misgivings over him. It could very well be that this is as far as he can take England and that any more time spent in the head coach's seat might end up holding England back.

It has now been almost 60 years since England last won a major international football tournament. Although they cannot completely be ruled out as potential Euro 2024 champions, the signs at the moment don't look good at all. England might really have had just that one chance and let it slip through their fingers.

Monday, September 4, 2023

The Weekly Take, Issue 273: Served a Reality Check

Heading into this season, sentiments were firmly positive at Union Berlin. Die Eisernen had just come off a historic Bundesliga campaign in which they finished fourth, allowing them to qualify for the UEFA Champions League for the first time in the club's history. On top of that, Union had a relatively successful off-season transfer window, signing the likes of Robin Gosens, Kevin Volland, and Diogo Leite. To cap it all off, Union even landed Italy captain Leonardo Bonucci via a free transfer after a legendary 12-year, two-part stint at Juventus.

Prior to Union's most recent match against RB Leipzig, everything seemed to have been going according to plan with one-sided victories over Mainz and Darmstadt to begin their Bundesliga season. However, in the match against Leipzig, Union were brought back down to earth with a 3-0 loss. Union never stood a chance as their opponents from Saxony dominated proceedings almost right from opening kick-off.

The scoreline arguably did not even accurately reflect how one-sided this match was; with almost twice Union's possession and 14 shots to Union's three, Leipzig could easily have won by a larger margin. That being said, as far as the scoreline itself was concerned, the turning point of the match was Volland's red card in the 65th minute. At the time, Leipzig were leading 1-0 after Xavi Simons scored a spectacular goal from just outside the penalty area shortly after the half-time break. Leipzig added the last two goals, both scored by substitute Benjamin Šeško, well after Union were reduced to 10 men.

Even at this early stage of the season, two issues have already made themselves evident within this team: defensive discipline and lack of possession. The fact that Union have had a player sent off in two of their first three league matches has to be concerning. Additionally, over those same two matches, Union have averaged just over 30% of the possession - a clip which is certainly not sustainable if they are to replicate or even surpass their impressive 2022-23 league campaign.

Some had claimed that this could be the season when Union consolidated their status as a mainstay of the top four in the Bundesliga once and for all by backing up their unprecedented Champions League qualification last season with a similar result. However, the reality of the situation is that at the moment, much like La Liga with Real Madrid, Barcelona, and Atlético Madrid, the Bundesliga appears to have settled into a pattern of a clear-cut top three of Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, and Leipzig. Despite having finished just four points behind Leipzig last season, this match showed that there is still a clear gap between even Dortmund and Leipzig, let alone Bayern, and the "best of the rest".

It must also be kept in mind that two of the teams which Union beat out to the Bundesliga's final Champions League qualification spot last season have themselves made significant upgrades to their rosters. Bankrolled by the lucrative transfers of Moussa Diaby and Randal Kolo Muani to Aston Villa and Paris Saint-Germain respectively, Bayer Leverkusen and Eintracht Frankfurt both spent heavily during transfer window. Not counting players signed for undisclosed transfer fees, the two clubs combined to spend over €140 million this past off-season.

On top of that, many clubs who have qualified for the Champions League for the first time have experienced domestic league drop-offs in the very next season owing to the difficulty of juggling those two separate schedules. While on paper it appears no different to what Union have previously done with the Europa Conference League and Europa League, the Champions League is a different beast entirely. Many Champions League debutants who thought they could handle the grind ended up falling by the wayside - in continental play as well as domestically.

Having been drawn into a difficult Champions League group featuring Napoli and Real Madrid as well as being the hunted rather than the hunter for the first time in their Bundesliga history, at least as far as a top-four spot is concerned, Union Berlin certainly have their work cut out for them this season. That said, the last decade or so has seen them shatter all manner of expectations - however, only time will tell if this next one would be a step too far for now.