The Weekly Take, Issue 263: Flat-Track Bully

The latest set of qualifying matches for the 2024 European Championship did not feature any two continental powerhouses going head-to-head. However, one match which ended up being somewhat notable due to its retrospective implications was a Group F clash in which heavy underdogs Estonia hosted Belgium.

To absolutely nobody's surprise, Belgium claimed a one-sided 3-0 victory. Inter Milan striker Romelu Lukaku scored the first two goals of the match within a three-minute span shortly before half-time. In the closing stages, Johan Bakayoko scored Belgium's third and the first goal of his international football career. Belgium's win allowed them to pull away from Sweden, who lost 2-0 to Austria, and take a major step towards claiming one of the two automatic qualification slots which each group allocates.

Lukaku's two goals have now put him on 75 goals for his country - a remarkable figure considering the fact that he has played just 108 international matches with many of those matches having been against top opposition at World Cups and European Championships. At just 30 years of age, Lukaku is almost certainly a lock to reach three digits before he retires. If he plays until his late 30s, Cristiano Ronaldo's all-time record of 123 international goals could still potentially be in play.

However, closer inspection reveals Lukaku on the international scene to be nothing more than a mere flat-track bully. Of his 75 goals in a Belgium jersey, only six of them have come against genuinely top-tier opponents at the time. To make matters even worse, only two of them came in either a World Cup, European Championship, or Nations League Finals: one goal against Italy in the Euro 2020 quarterfinals and another against France in the semifinals of the 2021 Nations League Finals.

On far too many occasions, Lukaku has failed to deliver when the pressure has been at its highest. At this point, one almost expects him to crumble on the biggest stages because that is what he has done time and again. From his own goal to lose his heavily-favoured Inter team the 2020 Europa League final against Sevilla to missing four relatively simple goalscoring opportunities against Croatia - causing Belgium to be knocked out of the 2022 World Cup group stage - to diverting teammate Federico Dimarco's goal-bound header in the Champions League final earlier this month before missing a wide-open header of his own soon after, Lukaku is the very embodiment of the term "un-clutch".

Lukaku's struggles under pressure are likely to sink Belgium at next year's European Championship. While Belgium are certainly not the favourites to win it all following their dismal performance at last year's World Cup, they do have the star power to at least give themselves a puncher's chance - or they would if someone other than Lukaku were leading the attack. The issue that faces Domenico Tedesco's team, however, is this: if not Lukaku, who else is at the level required to be Belgium's starting centre-forward? Loïs Openda? Michy Batshuayi? Divock Origi? At this point, it's just not going to happen - the primary reason why he has had this many opportunities is simply because, for all of Lukaku's flaws, Belgium do not have any other centre-forward who even remotely approaches his tier.

Whether for club or country, Lukaku is now a shadow of the player who thoroughly dominated Serie A with Inter from 2019 to 2021. Lukaku's decline since then has been stunning to say the least: in the 2021-22 season at the age of just 29, he had by far his worst season in many years; he has not even come close to returning to his prior level since then. He might look good in low-stakes matches against lesser opposition, but that's not nearly enough for this team which, with the exception of the 2018 World Cup, has also underperformed in major tournaments on countless occasions.

Although we have seen players break through such a "barrier" before and finally bring their top form to high-leverage matches after years of doing the opposite, such instances tend to be outliers. Romelu Lukaku's gaudy goalscoring statistics mask the reality: a team that depends on a flat-track bully as the lynchpin of the attack will never reach the highest level - something both Belgium and Lukaku's clubs know all too well by now.

The Weekly Take, Issue 262: A Nail-Biting Victory - But Questions Remain

The final of the 2022-23 UEFA Nations League went down to the wire, with Spain prevailing over Croatia with a 5-4 penalty shootout victory after the match remained goalless at the conclusion of both regulation and extra time. La Furia Roja's win provided some degree of redemption after their shocking round of 16 shootout loss against Morocco at last year's World Cup.

Spain's rebuild following the aging and retirement of their iconic "golden generation" which won two European Championships and a World Cup from 2008 to 2012 is now just about complete; it can now be fairly clearly seen just how they will set up as they prepare for Euro 2024 in Germany.

Probably the most notable feature about Spain right now is their midfield. After a breakout Treble-winning season at Manchester City, Rodri has made the starting defensive midfield spot his own. Alongside him would ordinarily have been Pedri; however, the Barcelona midfielder was kept out of Spain's Nations League Final Four squad by a muscle injury. At the head of the "triangle" in the number 10 slot is Pedri's Barça teammate Gavi. What makes this midfield trio especially notable is the fact that Pedri is still only 20 while Gavi is 18; Spain's starters at central and attacking midfield could very well have already been settled for the next decade or even beyond. In addition to the starters, Spain's midfield is also extremely deep; they can call upon the likes of Mikel Merino, Fabián Ruiz, Sergio Canales, and Carlos Soler as backups if necessary.

A holdover from their dominant era over a decade ago, Spain continue to employ a possession-heavy playstyle with intense pressing. The match against Croatia highlighted this, with Spain dictating the tempo of the match almost from the opening kick-off. This is where Spain tend to be most in their element; the fact that the score was still 0-0 after 120 minutes was somewhat anomalous. This match somewhat echoed Spain's victory in the 2010 World Cup final which played out very similarly. Certainly, although almost all the players of that generation have since retired, its impact not only continues to permeate the current team but also evolve through the presence of Barça players such as Pedri, Gavi, Ansu Fati, and legendary full-back Jordi Alba; Barça's "tiki-taka" playstyle was the primary influence on the 2008-12 team's strategy. Although Barça no longer employ such tactics to their fullest extent, the lasting legacy is readily apparent for both club and country.

On the other hand, one key problem which Spain are already facing is their lack of options up front. Spain do not have a reliable goal threat. It should be evident by now that Álvaro Morata is not the answer at centre-forward. The question is, who else do they have? Fati? Pablo Sarabia? Rodrigo? None of those are exactly names that spark a great deal of confidence. The fact that Spain scored zero goals from 21 shots in the match against Croatia speaks volumes. Additionally, Spain do not have any prolific goalscorers at any other position. It must be kept in mind that a Nations League Final Four run is just two matches long; this is therefore likely unsustainable over an entire Euro campaign.

There is also the realistic possibility that Spain could simply end up being out-strategized at Euro 2024. As far as coaching at this level is concerned, Luis de la Fuente is a relative greenhorn despite having over a quarter of a century of experience in the dugout at lower levels. Although he may have come through the Nations League unscathed, it remains to be seen how he will handle facing off against the likes of Didier Deschamps, Hansi Flick, and Domenico Tedesco, among others.

While this Nations League victory is undoubtedly a positive step for Spain, there is still much uncertainty about their status as bona fide Euro 2024 title contenders. Although a fourth continental title next year is not out of the question by any means, it does appear to be a tall order at the moment, especially if they do not secure direct qualification from Group A. However, depending on how their younger players develop, World Cup 2026 or Euro 2028 could be more realistic title targets.

The Weekly Take, Issue 261: In the Realm of the Gods

Before the beginning of any season, no matter how great a team might look on paper, it's very rare that anyone ever assumes "this team will go on to become perhaps the greatest team in the history of club football". The number of teams that have ever existed at that most elevated of planes could arguably be counted on one hand.

The 2022-23 Manchester City squad completed their ascension to that absolute apex level by completing the Treble following their 1-0 Champions League final victory over Inter Milan. Rodri's second-half goal was enough to ensure that the Citizens would become just the seventh team of the modern era to win their domestic league, domestic cup, and Champions League in the same season. City did, however, survive a close shave on two occasions after taking the lead. Federico Dimarco's goal-bound header bounced back off Inter teammate Romelu Lukaku; a goal would have levelled the score at 1-1. Shortly before the end of regulation time, Lukaku had a golden opportunity to atone for his earlier error, but he botched a simple unguarded header by aiming it straight at City goalkeeper Ederson despite having plenty of room to bury it in the back of the net.

The most impressive part of City's Treble this season was not so much the fact that they won the Treble as it was the manner by which they did. Once they seized the lead from Arsenal in the Premier League, a sweep of the three main trophies available to them seemed inevitable.

Where do we even begin when discussing this legendary, historic squad? This was a team that had it all - captain İlkay Gündoğan's assured, reliable leadership, Kevin De Bruyne's ability to play the game in bullet time, John Stones' seamless pivot from centre-back to central midfield, Jack Grealish and Phil Foden's emergence as key pieces to this remarkable puzzle, and of course, Erling Haaland's polonium-like lethality in front of the net. Tying it all together is the next-level coaching from the 300-IQ strategic mind of Pep Guardiola who, with his third career Champions League title and second Treble, has surely now established himself as the greatest of all time.

City's first clear statement of intent came before the season even got underway with the acquisition of Haaland from Borussia Dortmund. For the abysmally low transfer fee of €60 million, City's signing of the Norwegian centre-forward might already be the greatest transfer signing in football history. In October, City dispatched cross-town rivals United with a convincing 6-3 Manchester derby victory - the first sign that something truly special was in the making at the Etihad Stadium.

City would go on to make a major move in the title race with a 3-1 away win over Arsenal in February, allowing them to go top of the league. Soon after, Guardiola reconfigured the team's primary formation - a previously little-seen 3-2-4-1 which would prove to be a rousing success. Win after win followed, culminating in arguably the greatest single season ever put together by a football club - and certainly the finest by an English club.

Some may rush to point out the immense amount of money that club owner Sheikh Mansour spent to put this team together. While that may be true, long is the list of clubs that have spent colossal amounts of money only to come up short on European football's biggest stage. Additionally, City's signings of their two best players - Haaland and De Bruyne (arguably three if Gündoğan is added) - were vast underpays.

Is this actually the greatest club team of all time? Well, that's a difficult call to make - in the modern era alone, legendary teams like United 2008, Barcelona 2009, and Real Madrid 2017 come to mind. Travel further back in time and teams like Ajax 1972, Bayern Munich 1974, and AC Milan 1990 enter the conversation. That being said, City 2023 simply have to be considered in this discussion; they have just about as strong a claim as any of those other iconic teams.

In 20, 30, or even 50 years, long-time football fans the world over will wax lyrical about the time they saw Manchester City made European football bend to their will. This season's City team has become a permanent part of the football canon.

The Weekly Take, Issue 260: No Fox Remaining

Ever since I began writing these weekly posts, I have always focused on teams which are somewhat relevant at the upper end of their respective leagues. For that reason, I never expected a team about which I once wrote to be relegated within just a few years of that post. However, this is exactly what has happened.

In one of the most shocking relegations in recent memory, Leicester City slipped into next season's Championship after spending nine seasons in the Premier League. Despite claiming a 2-1 home victory over West Ham United, Leicester's victory proved to be in vain. The Foxes' fall into England's second-tier league was confirmed following Everton's 1-0 win over Bournemouth.

Although the match between Leicester and West Ham took place more than a week ago, I avoided making this post until now because one week later, Valencia and Getafe, two other clubs about which I had also previously written, were themselves in danger of relegation heading into the last La Liga matchday. Both survived after Valencia drew 1-1 against Real Betis while Getafe and Valladolid played to a 0-0 draw. The latter result also relegated Valladolid to LaLiga 2.

At the beginning of this season, almost no one could possibly have foreseen Leicester's relegation. The East Midlands club had been coming off three solid seasons which yielded two fifth-place league finishes, an FA Cup victory, and a run to the Europa Conference League semifinals. Leicester had clearly established themselves as a staple within the league's top 10 and entered the season with a decent chance of qualifying for the following season's Europa League - and perhaps even a puncher's chance of a Champions League spot if circumstances broke their way.

To say that this did not materialize would be a severe understatement. Leicester lost seven of their first nine league matches, leaving them in last place. Four wins in five matches soon after put them in 13th; however, this brief glimmer of hope ended up being the outlier. Loss after loss after loss began to pile up; after losing to Crystal Palace in April, Leicester were once again in the relegation zone where they would stay until the end of the season.

On paper, a team containing players like Youri Tielemans, Jamie Vardy, James Maddison, and Wout Faes should have no reason to even be close to a relegation dogfight, let alone succumb to it. That being said, when one takes a closer look at the reality of Leicester's season, it will be seen that some clear problems were overlooked; these unaddressed problems ended up being the club's undoing.

During the 2022 off-season transfer window, Leicester sold starting goalkeeper Kasper Schmeichel to Ligue 1 club Nice. This seemed understandable at first, given the fact that Schmeichel was 35 and in the twilight of his career. However, Leicester made what would prove to be a grievous error by not signing a starting goalkeeper, instead elevating Danny Ward to the starting 11. It soon became evident that Ward was simply not ready and clearly out of his depth between the goalposts. Leicester's 68 conceded goals ranked them joint-16th in the league in that statistic; their lack of a true starter-level goalkeeper was a major reason for their struggles on defense.

Leicester also took far too long to fire Brendan Rodgers. It should have been obvious that the Northern Irishman no longer had what it took to remain as Leicester's head coach if the club were to avoid relegation. By the time Rodgers was dismissed in April and replaced by Dean Smith, it was already too late in the season to make the changes necessary to get Leicester out of the relegation zone. Rodgers' primary failure this past season was his refusal to play a 3-5-2 formation which far better suited Leicester's personnel than his preferred 4-2-3-1.

Even after falling into the Championship, things are likely to get worse for Leicester City. Many key players are expected to leave the King Power Stadium in the coming off-season as a result of their relegation; this will only make their effort to return to the Premier League even more difficult. Leicester's transfer budget has also been hamstrung; the club's owners lost a great deal of money during the Covid-19 pandemic as their primary business activities were in airport duty-free stores. All things considered, Leicester might be in for a long and arduous road back.