The Weekly Take, Issue 259: Staring Down the Abyss

There can be no question that Juventus have endured a season which could be described as just about anything apart from "ordinary". In January, Juventus received a deduction of 15 points in Serie A after having been found guilty of false accounting. Several of the club's board members, including former club president Andrea Agnelli, were also suspended owing to their respective roles in the related incidents. However, three months later, this point penalty was suspended pending a further trial. The points of which the Bianconeri had been stripped were returned to the Turin club; this caused Juve to rocket up the league table and into firm contention for a top-four spot and thus a Champions League berth.

As it would turn out, there would be another twist to come. On May 22, another charge of false accounting resulted in Juve incurring a 10-point penalty; this point deduction all but ended their chances of qualifying for next season's Champions League. Juve's hopes of making the top four were then extinguished once and for all with a 1-0 home loss to AC Milan. Olivier Giroud scored the only goal of the match. Milan's victory also ensured that it would be the Rossoneri who would join league champions Napoli as well as Lazio and Inter Milan in next season's Champions League.

Over the past three seasons, the general situation at the Allianz Stadium has progressively worsened. The "dominoes" that set Juve's decline into motion was the firing of former head coach Maurizio Sarri and the subsequent replacement of Sarri with Andrea Pirlo. In his first season in Turin, Sarri had led Juve to the league title for an unprecedented ninth consecutive season. Yet, in what can only be described as a knee-jerk move, Sarri was fired at the end of the season after an upset Champions League round of 16 loss to Lyon.

With the incompetent Pirlo in the dugout, Juve did not even come close to retaining their Scudetto. They finished fourth in 2020-21 and ended up a massive 13 points behind league champions Inter. Juve were also once again knocked out of the Champions League in the round of 16. Despite winning the Coppa Italia, Pirlo was rightly dismissed at the end of the season. Juve's dismal season also led to legendary forward Cristiano Ronaldo's departure from the club and stunning return to Manchester United.

Last season, Juve again finished fourth in the league; however, this time they finished 16 points behind league champions Milan and scored just 57 league goals. Paulo Dybala's 10 goals made him the club's only player to break the double-digit barrier in the league. This season, of course, has been even worse. Juventus will miss out on the Champions League for the first time since they finished seventh in the 2010-11 season. Juve are once again in seventh place with one matchday remaining; failure to overtake either Atalanta or AS Roma would mean that Juve would not even qualify for the Europa League but instead have to enter the Conference League.

It may soon get even worse for Juve. Should their point penalty be upheld, Juve will begin the 2023-24 Serie A season with -15 points, greatly hampering their chances of returning to the top four even before the season's opening kickoff. This would also make it almost impossible for Juve to attract any notable names during the upcoming off-season transfer window; at this point, it is somewhat likely that over the off-season, clubs like Napoli, Milan, and Inter will get stronger while Juve either stagnate or perhaps even continue their decline. It's not out of the question that Juve lose key players who are only interested in playing for a Champions League club.

Juventus' downfall has been as stunning as it has been swift and their decline has been becoming steeper and steeper. If Juve were to finish next season outside the top 10 in the league while once again suffering an early exit in their continental tournament, it would not even be all that surprising. Juve's path back to the top table is a long and difficult one indeed. It could be many years before they are once again a bona fide Scudetto contender.

The Weekly Take, Issue 258: A Sign of Things to Come?

The penultimate matchday of this season's Bundesliga saw 10-time reigning league champions Bayern Munich host RB Leipzig. A Bayern victory would all but certainly guarantee them a record-extending 11th consecutive league title. However, this was not to be the case as Leipzig came from behind to register a remarkable 3-1 victory.

Bayern scored first by way of Serge Gnabry and took this one-goal lead into the halftime break. After the interval, Konrad Laimer scored Leipzig's equalizer, adding additional intrigue to not only this match, but the title race as well. In the 76th minute, Leipzig took the lead after Christopher Nkunku scored from the penalty spot after earning the spot-kick. Four minutes before the end of regulation time, Dominik Szoboszlai clinched all three points for Die Bullen by converting a penalty of his own.

Leipzig's victory just about sank Bayern's hopes of winning the league once again. Bayern will now not only have to beat Köln on the final matchday in order to clinch the Bundesliga title; they will also have to do so while Borussia Dortmund do not beat Mainz. Any other permutation of results will cause Dortmund to win the Bundesliga for the first time since the 2011-12 season.

As for Leipzig, this latest victory adds another step forward in their strong finish to what had once seemed as though it would be a season full of struggle. Following an off-season transfer window which included several questionable decisions, Leipzig stumbled out of the gates. After seven league matchdays, the club from Saxony were in 12th place in the league, had lost their first two Champions League matches including a crushing 4-1 defeat at the hands of Shakhtar Donetsk, and had just fired head coach Domenico Tedesco; he was replaced by Marco Rose. It was certainly possible that Leipzig could have been heading for their worst season since their first promotion to the Bundesliga in 2016.

Slowly but surely, however, things began to change at the Red Bull Arena. With Rose in the dugout, the team gradually began to gel. The wins started to pile up and Leipzig embarked on their ascent of the league table. An undefeated streak of 12 league matches put Leipzig in fourth place in early February. Leipzig did not let up; they went on to reach the final of the DFB-Pokal with an impressive victory against Dortmund along the way. Leipzig have also won six of their last seven league matches and will finish the season in the top three of the league for the fifth time in the past seven seasons.

Although Leipzig will not win the Bundesliga for the first time in the club's history, they do have a golden opportunity to do so next season. Bayern are in their weakest and most vulnerable state in more than a decade. Dortmund, meanwhile, are likely to lose several players in the upcoming off-season including, most notably of all, Jude Bellingham. One of world football's most promising young talents, the English midfielder is widely expected to land a move to Real Madrid before the 2023-24 season begins. This is likely to leave a power vacuum at the top of the league - a vacuum into which Leipzig could easily step.

Leipzig have been linked with Real midfielder Dani Ceballos and Arsenal striker Folarin Balogun. While Ceballos is certainly no scrub, Balogun is by far the more intriguing prospect. Leipzig's leading goalscorer in the league this season is Nkunku with 14 goals; no other player has reached double figures. Almost a year ago, Leipzig made the critical error of letting Ademola Lookman leave for Atalanta for just €9 million; the Nigerian striker has since had a breakout season. However, Balogun appears due for a breakout season of his own. At just 21, the American is brimming with potential after an excellent season on loan at Reims. Balogun appears ready to make the step up to a major European league.

Despite early missteps, the energy surrounding RB Leipzig is completely different to that of the beginning of the season. They could now be just a few well-planned moves away from building something truly special. No club other than Bayern or Dortmund has won the Bundesliga since VfL Wolfsburg's stunning triumph in the 2008-09 season. It's certainly not out of the question that Leipzig could end this streak next season.

The Weekly Take, Issue 257: Nobody Could Have Seen This Coming

The Derby della Madonnina is one of world football's most hotly-contested derbies - not least because unlike many other cross-town rivalries, AC Milan and Inter Milan share a stadium. The latest edition of this iconic clash had an added layer of importance to it - both Milan clubs had been drawn against each other in this season's Champions League semifinals.

Designated as the away team, Inter all but guaranteed themselves a spot in European football's showpiece match with a 2-0 victory over Milan in the first leg of this semifinal fixture. Both goals were scored in the opening exchanges of the match; veteran striker Edin Džeko opened the scoring in the eighth minute. Three minutes later, Henrikh Mkhitaryan's goal put Inter two ahead and ensured that the Nerazzurri would take a commanding lead into the second leg. If Inter were to finish the job in the second leg, they would enter the Champions League final for the first time since 2010 - the culmination of their iconic Treble-winning season.

Even as recently as one to two months ago, not even the most die-hard Inter fans could have realistically believed that the club would be in this position today. A Serie A campaign full of struggle has left Inter's chances of a top-four spot in a precarious position with just four matches remaining. Inter have not finished outside the top two in the league since the 2018-19 season; additionally, the last time they missed the top four and the Champions League spot that comes with it was in 2016-17.

Inter's Champions League campaign this season also got off to a slow start, barely surviving a stacked group which also contained Bayern Munich and Barcelona. This was following by a 1-0 aggregate victory over Porto in the round of 16; this victory was not exactly convincing. The same could be said of Inter's quarterfinal victory over Benfica. Yet, in spite of all of this, Inter now find themselves 90 minutes away from the Champions League final.

What's more, Inter's path to this point has not happened in the way many might have thought it would have when the season began. They had a productive off-season transfer window, adding eight players to the blue half of the San Siro including André Onana, Romelu Lukaku, Joaquín Correa, Robin Gosens, and Francesco Acerbi. However, none of their acqusitions have turned out to be among the club's top performers this season. Despite this, players such as Lautaro Martínez, Hakan Çalhanoğlu, and Nicolò Barella have stepped up and played major roles in keeping Inter's top-four league bid afloat as well as spearheading Inter's likely run to the Champions League final.

Additionally, Inter could easily have been derailed after the World Cup. Despite being part of the Argentina team which claimed a first world title in 36 years, Lautaro was clearly a net negative for the Albiceleste. One could easily make the case that his greatest contribution to Argentina's victory was his abysmal performance against Saudi Arabia which caused him to get benched in favour of Manchester City striker Julián Álvarez for the rest of the tournament. Considering this fact, there were certainly questions about Lautaro's form following his return from Qatar. However, Lautaro went on to silence the doubters by returning to his pre-World Cup form as soon as he once again put on an Inter jersey.

Inter's Champions League success so far, unlike their title run 13 years ago, hasn't even been a product of tactical brilliance. While head coach Simone Inzaghi has shown a reasonable level of competence thus far, he is not even close to the highest echelon in which his opposite number in the final - either Real Madrid's Carlo Ancelotti or City's Pep Guardiola - will reside.

On the whole, not a lot about Inter's Champions League run thus far makes much sense on the surface; it has been nothing less than the epitome of "taking it one match at a time" - but will that be enough in the final? Porto, Benfica, and Milan are far from the toughest possible opponents that Inter could have faced. Real or City will be on a completely different level. Conventional wisdom dictates that Inter lack the star power to win it all - but conventional wisdom has been thrown out the window with Inter on the continental stage thus far. For all we know, the biggest twist could be just around the corner.

The Weekly Take, Issue 256: Back After a Decade

Real Sociedad all but punched their ticket to next season's Champions League with an impressive 2-0 La Liga victory over 10-man Real Madrid. Takefusa Kubo opened the scoring for the Basque club shortly after halftime. Real Madrid's task was made even more difficult when full-back Dani Carvajal was sent off after receiving a second yellow card. Five minutes before the end of regulation time, substitute Ander Barrenetxea scored another goal to clinch all three points for Real Sociedad. The result not only almost certainly sealed a top-four finish for Real Sociedad for the first time since the 2012-13 season; it also put Real Madrid at risk of being overtaken by cross-town arch-rivals Atlético Madrid for second place in the league.

The bulk of Real Sociedad's success this season can be traced to their outstanding off-season transfer window almost a year ago. Their signings of Brais Méndez and Kubo as well as their decision to make their loan signing of Alexander Sørloth a permanent one. have turned out to be masterstrokes.

Having left Celta after spending the first five seasons of his career in Galicia, midfielder Méndez is having a breakout season. Méndez has slotted seamlessly into Real Sociedad's midfield alongside Mikel Merino and veteran David Silva; his transfer fee of €14 million is starting to look like quite the bargain. Kubo, meanwhile, came to the Anoeta after spending three years on loan at other La Liga clubs from Real Madrid. The Japanese player looks like a player reborn after finally having found a permanent spot at a top-four La Liga club. At just 21, he has more than likely barely even scratched the surface of his potential and could go on to become one of the faces of Japanese football alongside compatriots Ritsu Dōan and Kaoru Mitoma.

Sørloth's level of play this season was not necessarily expected by most. Many would have thought that the Norwegian striker was simply not good enough for a club of this level, having managed just four league goals last season following an equally paltry result at RB Leipzig before that. Heading into the 2022-23 season, in three prior seasons at clubs in major European leagues, Sørloth had found the net just nine times over 79 league appearances. But this season, something clicked and he's now playing better than he has since his loan stint at Trabzonspor three years ago.

Ever since taking the position for the second time in the 2018-19 season, Real Sociedad head coach Imanol Alguacil has brought much stability and continuity to the club. Now helming the club for which he played for eight years, Alguacil has overseen the club's greatest period of success since its heyday in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Alguacil has turned this Real Sociedad team into one which would have a puncher's chance against just about anyone. The emphasis he has placed on possession and creation of high-quality chances is clearly generating results.

When the season began, there were questions about how Real Sociedad would fare due to the fact that Mikel Oyarzabal, the club's best player, tore his ACL near the end of the 2021-22 season. Real Sociedad's results fell off a cliff after Oyarzabal's injury - a somewhat ominous sign for this season. However, Real Sociedad have defied the critics and put together an impressive season which has somewhat gone under the radar. Furthermore, as is the case with the vast majority of players who have suffered a torn ACL, Oyarzabal has not been close to his prior level this season and quite possibly will never approach it again. In spite of this, Real Sociedad have adeptly overcome it to put together their best league campaign in a decade.

If Real Sociedad make the right moves in the coming off-season, it isn't out of the question that if things break the right way for them next season, they might challenge the oligopoly of Barcelona, Real Madrid, and Atlético as they push for a top-three finish. No club other than those three has finished in the top three of La Liga since Valencia in the 2011-12 season. What's more, since then every Spanish club which has risen to significant heights has fallen away soon after. It's too early to say, but perhaps Real Sociedad might be the team that breaks that streak.