Sunday, March 26, 2023

The Weekly Take, Issue 250: A Look Behind the Scenes

With this being Issue 250, I figured that for this one, I'd change it up a little as I usually do for "milestone" issues. This time around, I've decided to pull the curtain back and introduce you to some of the most important tools I use to craft my posts.

The first resource that gets a shout-out from me is Whoscored.com. Whoscored.com has just about everything. Even when I'm not making a blog post, I'll still go to Whoscored to get a rough idea of how each player fared in the matches I did not watch but in which I was nonetheless interested. Its player rating system is probably the most exact on the Internet, going all the way to two decimal places.

Beyond its in-depth player ratings, Whoscored provides detailed statistics on virtually every aspect of a football match. Everything from number of aerial duels won to player and team heatmaps to the trajectory of every shot taken and so much more - it's all there. On top of that, Whoscored even provides information on minor football leagues which almost no one outside their respective countries of origin follows closely.

I almost always take a large about of the quantifiable information in each of my posts from Whoscored because of how comprehensive and complete the website is. Even for someone like myself who already possesses a wealth of football knowledge, I can easily find myself going deep into the rabbit hole once I click on the home page. Although I would recommend Whoscored to just about every football fan, this is especially the case for "casual" fans intent on diving deeper into the favourite teams and players but not quite sure about where to begin.

Every transfer window invariably sees a flurry of activity as well as countless rumours to go with it. This being the case, many fans might not always be sure if a certain player is being overvalued or undervalued - especially if they have never watched that player before. This is where Transfermarkt.com comes in. Transfermarkt.com provides the most reliable estimates of what a player's transfer fee should be based on a combination of several metrics. All transfer fees are standardized because their values are given in euros regardless of the player's nationality or location of the player's club.

Transfermarkt also tracks any player's estimated transfer value over a given timespan. Thus, it serves as one of the ways to determine if a specific player has lived up to his transfer fee or fallen short. Players can also be sorted by position - a highly welcome feature since generally speaking, a player's transfer fee tends to increase the further forward he plays. As is the case with Whoscored, almost all leagues around the world and their players are tracked.

For other information, I usually shun big-name publications and newspapers. The clubs' own websites, sites such as SB Nation, and even Reddit have given me much material with which I can work. Additionally, many of the well-known newspapers and their analysts have been known to be biased for or against certain players and teams. While I won't provide any specific examples here, I'm sure we can all think of more than a few. Conversely, the sources I listed as those which I often visit as I write my posts tend to be much more objective.

Last but certainly not least, I'd like to give a shout-out to the YouTube channel Tifo Football. The videos on this channel cover just about every facet and nuance of today's football sphere. Content is delivered in a highly digestible yet informative manner, and even topics which are only tangentially related to football are covered. Tifo Football releases many tactical analysis videos which I often watch to add depth to my posts, particularly where strategic elements of football are concerned.

Tifo Football isn't just a useful tool for blog posts - anyone with even a passing interest in football should check out the channel. The sheer scope of topics within the football universe that it covers is remarkable. No matter which team you might support, you will come across at least one (and probably more than that) video which will be right up your alley.

Sunday, March 19, 2023

The Weekly Take, Issue 249: Another Champions League Title Incoming?

It's certainly rare that the football club which wears the crown of "best team in the world" at any given point is one which in that same season was knocked out of the Europa League in the round of 24. However, in what is shaping up to be one of the strangest European club football seasons in recent memory (the pandemic-interrupted 2019-20 season notwithstanding), this is arguably the case right now.

The latest iteration of El Clásico saw Barcelona emerge with a 2-1 victory over Real Madrid. Real took an early lead by way of an own goal scored by Ronald Araújo; this goal was very much against the run of play. As was to be expected, the Blaugrana equalized shortly before half-time when Sergi Roberto converted his follow-up chance following Raphinha's blocked shot. Franck Kessié's stoppage-time winning goal would then extend Barça's lead at the top of La Liga to 12 points.

It's difficult to understate just how domestically dominant Barça have been this season. After 26 league matches, the Catalan club have 68 points, winning all but four matches along the way. They have all but clinched the league title for the first time since 2019 and notably, the first time in the post-Lionel Messi era as well. Despite having almost been fired from his head coach position at multiple points during his somewhat tumultuous tenure, Xavi now has this team running like a well-oiled machine. Ever since enduring a difficult October, Barça have arguably been playing at their highest level since their Treble-winning campaign of 2014-15. A domestic double is now not only possible, but likely.

Like several other clubs, Barça spent plenty of money during the off-season transfer window to bring players to Camp Nou. However, unlike some of those other big-spending clubs, Barça's acquisitions have fit seamlessly into the team. Barça spent a total of €158 million during the off-season, acquiring players such as Raphinha, Jules Koundé, Andreas Christensen, and most notably of all, legendary centre-forward Robert Lewandowski. In addition, in a case of "addition by subtraction", they off-loaded Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang to Chelsea. It soon became evident that while Aubameyang had been at Barça, the club had managed to squeeze the last drops of high-level play out of him; he is now well and truly past it.

Barça have always taken tremendous pride in La Masia, the club's iconic, world-renowned youth academy. The influence of La Masia can be seen throughout this team, in particular through 18-year-old midfield phenom Gavi. The Andalusian already looks like a seasoned veteran and has even drawn comparisons to legendary Barça midfield duo Xavi and Andrés Iniesta. While such comparisons may very well be premature, such is the hype that Gavi has already generated. Of course, La Masia's impact goes beyond Gavi alone. Gavi's fellow La Masia alumni Eric García, Sergi Roberto, Ansu Fati, and club icons Sergio Busquets and Jordi Alba have all made significant contributions this season. The presence of such a foundation gives the team a level of continuity and internal structure seldom seen in other elite clubs.

I don't think it would be a stretch to say that at this point, Barça might be the favourites to win next season's Champions League. What's more, given their success this season, they have even put themselves in position to land a marquee signing during the next off-season. Should Barça add such a player to their roster, they will be very difficult to stop as they pursue a sixth Champions League title. In fact, had they not been stunningly knocked out of this season's Champions League in the group stage, Barça would've been among the prime contenders to win it all and finish the season with a Treble for the third time in the club's history.

Perhaps the greatest irony in all of this is the following: when Messi left Barça in 2021, many viewed it as an opportunity for him to add another Champions League triumph at the expense of a club on the decline. Almost two years later, the script has been almost completely flipped. At Paris Saint-Germain, Messi seems further away from a Champions League title than ever before. Barça, on the other hand, could be making room in their trophy cabinet for another one - the one with the huge handles.

Wednesday, March 8, 2023

The Weekly Take, Issue 248: Just PSG Things

At this point, is anyone even surprised anymore?

For the fifth time in the last seven seasons, Paris Saint-Germain were knocked out of the Champions League in the round of 16 - a statistics which looks much worse when considering the colossal amount of money which the club's Qatari owners have spent to bring the biggest prize in European club football to the French capital for the first time. In their second-leg match against Bayern Munich, PSG offered little resistance as they slumped to a 2-0 loss, going out of the competition by an aggregate scoreline of 3-0.

As has become the norm, PSG floundered when the lights were brightest and the pressure was highest. This is the weakest Bayern team in years - one which is at risk of relinquishing the club's decade-long stranglehold over the Bundesliga title. In addition, Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappé are not far removed from iconic, all-time great individual World Cup runs. There may arguably have never been a better opportunity for PSG to claim a signature victory, knock out one of the pre-tournament favourites, and take an enormous step towards the Champions League title.

This latest PSG disasterclass is unique for one notable reason: it took place despite the absence of Neymar. Notice that I said "absence", not "presence"; again and again, the Brazilian striker has failed to show up when his team has most needed him. Additionally, both his club and country clearly play better without him than with him in spite of his immense talent. Nevertheless, even in this scenario, PSG once again capitulated.

Messi, Mbappé, and Achraf Hakimi looked nothing like the players who turned in many dominant performances for their respective countries in Qatar. Along with their teammates, they were utterly stymied by a Bayern team with which they should have at least been able to keep pace.

PSG's complete lack of fighting spirit against the Bavarian club was obvious. At no point over both legs of this fixture did PSG even so much as appear to put up any resistance whatsoever. The substitutions they made only reinforced this point - they brought on unproven youngsters instead of more established players, essentially conceding defeat by doing so.

It's painfully obvious at this point - PSG has been thoroughly "infected" by a losers' mentality. Despite all their big-name players and the eye-popping financial resources available to them, they themselves obviously do not believe that they can actually win it all. The club itself fears the big moments - they fully expect to come up short when in the limelight. Barcelona 2017, Manchester United 2018, Real Madrid 2019 - and many, many more. It almost seems as if the moment any player steps onto the field in a PSG jersey for a crucial match, that player's performance level immediately plummets.

Never has a club squandered so many opportunities to win the Champions League over such a comparatively short timeframe. This is a team that should have been bona fide contenders for the Champions League title every season for the past decade or so. However, ever since their acquisition by Qatar Sports Investments in 2011, PSG have only advanced beyond the tournament's quarterfinals twice. To make matters even worse, one of those two deep runs was the 2019-20 season when the tournament, like everything else in the world, was disrupted and subsequently restructured owing to the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic; that season would inherently have been an outlier no matter the eventual results.

The problems at PSG clearly go far beyond the players, coaching staff, or even ownership and the front office. This club has seemingly accepted the fate of being European club football's perennial underachievers. This not only affects PSG's current squad - every player who they will go on to sign will, for the foreseeable future, be "poisoned" by the mentality that pervades the club.

After the match against Bayern, Mbappé said in an interview that PSG have peaked - that there is no further level they can attain. When a player who is a legitimate Ballon d'Or contender goes from taking apart the world's best to making such an admission after yet another lifeless Champions League performance in such a short timeframe, it really speaks volumes.

We will almost certainly be back next year with the same story but in different words.

Saturday, March 4, 2023

The Weekly Take, Issue 247: The Final Blow to Their Title Hopes?

This season's Bundesliga title race has been one for the ages. As many as six teams have at some point found themselves with a realistic chance to finish the season as champions of Germany. During this matchday, two of those teams faced off with Borussia Dortmund hosting RB Leipzig. Dortmund emerged with a 2-1 victory; it was their eighth consecutive league victory and provisionally took them to the top of the league pending Bayern Munich's later away match against VfB Stuttgart.

Dortmund opened the scoring around the midway point of the first half through a Marco Reus penalty. They would go on to enter the break with a 2-0 lead after Emre Can increased their lead in the 39th minute. In the second half, Leipzig would reduce the deficit with Emil Forsberg getting Die Bullen on the board, but they would not be able to score an equalizer after that.

Leipzig's loss might very well have ended any hope they may have had to win this season's Bundesliga. With just 11 matches left to be played, Leipzig are now seven points off the lead. While that might not necessarily sound like an excessive margin, so tight and hard-fought has the 2022-23 Bundesliga been that this gap could realistically be too much for the Saxony-based club to overcome.

At this point, the question is now "what could Leipzig have done differently this season?" One key area where Leipzig could certainly have done better has to be the off-season transfer window. David Raum and Timo Werner have not lived up to their transfer fees, while Abdou Diallo, a loan acquisition from Paris Saint-Germain, has been ravaged by injury all season long. Ironically, Senegalese centre-back Diallo was brought in as cover for the equally injury-prone Lukas Klostermann.

To make matters even worse, Leipzig sold or loaned out many players who would have likely been of great assistance in this final title run-in. The most notable of these has to be Ademola Lookman, who left the club for the astonishingly paltry fee of €9 million. The Nigerian striker is in the midst of a breakout season, having already notched 12 league goals in 23 Serie A matches. In one season, Lookman has almost matched his prior career tally of 16 goals in major European league play. Compounding this was the fact that Leipzig also lost a slew of capable players including Angeliño, Alexander Sørloth, Brian Brobbey, and Tyler Adams. In return for their many departures, Leipzig received a total of just over €74 million - well below the total value these players should have collectively fetched.

Of course, league titles are never solely won or lost in the boardroom. It can't be denied that several key Leipzig players simply have not lived up to expectations. Perhaps the most notable culprit is centre-back Joško Gvardiol. After an excellent World Cup in which he became one of the tournament's breakout stars, the Croatian has not yet adjusted to his newly heightened expectations. This, of course, does not discount the fact that World Cup fatigue could be taking its toll on him - but it's now been several months. For how much longer can we realistically give him a pass for that?

Adding to this point, players such as Raum, Mohamed Simakan, Marcel Halstenberg, and Kevin Kampl have all seen obvious declines when compared to their performances of last season. What makes this even more worrying is the fact that Raum, Simakan, and Halstenberg accompany Gvardiol in the backline. The numbers bear this fact out: after 23 league matches, Leipzig have conceded 29 goals, tying them for fourth-fewest with VfL Wolfsburg. Last season, however, Leipzig tied league champions Bayern for fewest goals conceded with 37.

Other matters which made things more difficult for Leipzig were the early-season firing of then-head coach Domenico Tedesco as well as the death of controversial club owner Dietrich Mateschitz. Though Leipzig's setup and methods of operation have always been a divisive topic across German football, the club had always been relatively stable internally - until now. Ever since entering the Bundesliga in 2016, this might be the furthest off the rails they have gone. Although by many metrics this has not been a bad season for Leipzig by any means, such is the nature of the Bundesliga this season that even just a few errors could torpedo a team's potential title bid - RB Leipzig might just have experienced this first-hand.