The Weekly Take, Issue 221: Already Surplus to Requirements

Paris Saint-Germain added another name to their defensive corps by bringing RB Leipzig right-back Nordi Mukiele to his hometown club for €10 million. PSG signed Mukiele on a five-year contract which came after he had spent four years in Saxony.

Despite the relatively low transfer fee, this move is a somewhat strange one on PSG's part. It is difficult to picture just how Mukiele would fit into this team and its dynamics. Additionally, PSG's starting right-back, Achraf Hakimi, is arguably one of the top three in the world at that position. Barring a major injury or a sudden major slump, Hakimi will not be leaving his spot in the starting line-up any time soon.

Mukiele is also unlikely to get much playing time at his secondary position of centre-back. Presnel Kimpembe and Marquinhos are vastly superior players and thus will almost certainly avoid being unseated. It isn't as though PSG are lacking as far as backup defenders are concerned, either. Abdou Diallo, Sergio Ramos, Juan Bernat, and Thilo Kehrer form one of the better defensive second units in world football.

PSG's acquisition of Mukiele is yet another example of the club "missing the forest for the trees" in the transfer window. The main area of concern was clearly central midfield; Georginio Wijnaldum is simply not good enough as a regular starter if a club is to have a realistic chance of winning the Champions League. While PSG did sign Vitinha for €41.5 million, it would likely have been a wiser move on their part to have held off on both the Vitinha and Mukiele signings and instead used the money they spent on both transfers to bring in an even better central midfielder. Players such as Mikel Merino, Marcos Llorente, and Matheus Nunes would have likely been better uses of the money that PSG spent.

Additionally, this move is likely to stymie Mukiele's own development as a player. At 24, he had almost certainly not yet reached his absolute peak level. He had already begun to make a name for himself at the Red Bull Arena prior to his transfer. However, his likely lack of playing time at PSG will probably guarantee that he will leave some, if not much, of his potential unfulfilled when he reaches what would ordinarily have been his best years.

To make matters worse, Mukiele joined PSG - the club with a bigger reputation for choking than any other. This mentality has permeated the entire team to such an extent that it makes one wonder if even they truly believe that they are Champions League-winning material. Being at a club like that will undoubtedly have a negative effect on a player who is at the career stage where Mukiele is now.

In spite of their eye-watering wealth, PSG's follies in the transfer window have come back to bite them time and again. This is another key reason why year after year, PSG come up short in the Champions League. From spending a record-breaking transfer fee on Neymar and then attempting to build a team around him to bringing in a version of Lionel Messi well past his prime to signing Mauro Icardi for almost no reason at all - it seems as though every good move PSG make in the transfer market is followed by a bad one.

It can even be argued that PSG were too quick to offload players such as Lucas Moura and Gonçalo Guedes. Both have gone on to experience success at other clubs; this might actually be the best-case scenario for Mukiele as far as his career progression is concerned. Do not be surprised if Mukiele is loaned out before too long.

Is it still possible that this transfer could end up turning out for the best? Of course it is - after all, we've seen more unlikely success stories before. However, based on the evidence to date, the chances of Mukiele's stint at PSG being a positive one are relatively low.

Sometimes, when a young player signs for a new club, it comes with a feeling of "and that's the last we ever heard from him again at this level". Sadly for PSG fans, that's exactly the vibe that this signing has provided.

The Weekly Take, Issue 220: Deflation Has Arrived

In a transfer which not many would have seen coming, Lyon signed Argentine left-back Nicolás Tagliafico from Ajax on a three-year contract. Tagliafico left the Dutch capital after spending four-and-a-half seasons at the Johan Cruyff Arena. During this stint which was highlighted by an underdog run to the 2018-19 Champions League semifinals, Tagliafico established himself as one of the more underrated full-backs in world football and became the starter at that position for his country.

With these facts in mind, it is astonishing to think that Lyon signed Tagliafico for just €4.2 million. One would ordinarily have expected a player of his level to have gone for somewhere in the range of €20 to €30 million.

Those who have been paying attention to the current transfer window will note that Tagliafico's transfer for such a low fee appears to be part of a trend. Transfer fees appear to be dropping all at once. Already in this off-season's transfer window, we have seen Erling Haaland sign for Manchester City from Borussia Dortmund for €60 million, Sadio Mané join Bayern Munich for €32 million following his departure from Liverpool, and Robert Lewandowski acquired by Barcelona from Bayern for €45 million. Clearly, the average transfer fee is on the decline. But why is this so and why has it begun to happen so suddenly?

While no one has outright confirmed or denied anything, I do have two theories regarding this. The first is the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and its associated lockdowns. For many months, clubs missed out on much revenue through lost ticket sales when fan attendance was either banned or limited. This lost revenue made a dent in every club's finances, making many of them less willing to shell out the big money to sign players.

It is somewhat ironic that while Covid-19 served to exacerbate inflation for the everyday person, the inverse appears to be true as far as transfer fees are concerned. However, the pandemic alone does not explain the sudden movement of multiple superstars for essentially discount prices.

This is where the second factor comes in: player empowerment. The term "player empowerment" originated from the NBA but is equally applicable to describe this growing phenomenon in European football. There is more player empowerment with regard to players controlling their own transfer destiny than there has ever been in football history.

Consider the case of Haaland, for example. If Haaland had played 20 or even 10 years ago, it would not have been particularly likely for Dortmund to have dealt him to City at that point of his career, let alone for a transfer fee worth about half of his expected transfer value. However, dissatisfied with the situation at Signal Iduna Park, Haaland played an active role in engineering his departure from Dortmund. This also served to drive his own transfer market value down; Dortmund would have been less inclined to play hardball with regard to a player who clearly wanted to leave.

When combining the effects of the pandemic and player empowerment, it should not be all that surprising that transfer fee values have slumped this off-season. However, those who would hail such an occurrence as a harbinger of greater parity in European football would be sorely mistaken. The clubs which have made an absolute killing in this transfer window have been many of the usual suspects: City, Bayern, Barça. Bayern might not even be done yet - they are reportedly considering making a move for Tottenham striker Harry Kane.

Ever since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, the phrases "unprecedented times" and "new normal" have been thrown around on countless occasions. However, in the context of transfer fees, the two phrases are diametrically opposed - it remains to be seen if transfer fees will end up stabilizing at this level or if this dip is an outlier. If these lower transfer fees do end up being the "new normal", it will fundamentally alter how every club approaches future transfer windows in their pursuit of desired players.

In any case, the trend exists now, and that only means one thing: expect more of the unexpected over the rest of this transfer window, and thus the season itself when play begins next month.

The Weekly Take, Issue 219: The Finishing Touches to an Iconic Career

Robert Lewandowski has achieved just about everything possible over the course of his legendary football career. A two-time European Golden Shoe winner who was unjustly denied the Ballon d'Or in 2020 after leading Bayern Munich to the Champions League title in that year, Lewandowski ranks second among all Bundesliga goalscorers in league history with 312. The Pole scored 238 of those for Bayern including a mind-boggling 41 in the 2020-21 season.

Lewandowski has now begun what might be the final stages of his career by agreeing to sign for Barcelona for a transfer fee of €50 million. Lewandowski signed a three-year contract with an option for a further one-year extension. While the transfer fee may initially seem unusually low, the reality is that at 33, it remains uncertain just how many prime years Lewandowski has remaining. That being said, if Lewandowski can remain at an elite level for two to three more years, Barça are set to be a leading contender for Champions League titles during the entirety of that timespan.

Lewandowski's arrival at Camp Nou further strengthens an already stacked attack. Ferran Torres, Ansu Fati, a rejuvenated Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, and Lewandowski's fellow new arrival Raphinha already make Barça's frontline one of the most potent in world football. The addition of Lewandowski might just give Barça the undisputed best attacking unit on the planet.

Last season, Barça were not even close to winning the league. Although they finished second behind arch-rivals Real Madrid, Barça were second by the enormous margin of 13 points. One key reason for this was their relative lack of a goalscoring threat. In the 2021-22 season, Barça's leading goalscorer in La Liga was Memphis Depay (who is likely to leave the club himself during this off-season) with 12. To put this figure into perspective, Aubameyang came to Catalonia during the mid-season transfer window and had 11 in the league, almost matching Depay's full-season tally. In total, Barça scored just 68 league goals to Real's 80.

This will almost certainly change with Lewandowski in the starting line-up. Of particular note will be Fati's performance if, as expected, he once again becomes a regular starter following his recovery from a torn ACL. It is widely believed that Fati's playstyle is an excellent complement to that of Lewandowski. Should this turn out to be the case, expect another massive goal tally from the Pole - perhaps a third consecutive Golden Shoe could await.

At this point, the only "criticism" that could conceivably be levelled at Lewandowski is the (baseless) claim that "he would never be able to do it in a league other than the Bundesliga". However, those who would claim this are ignoring the fact that this isn't just any player. This is one of the greatest centre-forwards of all time. When Lewandowski is in top form, he is one of the most unstoppable offensive forces to ever step onto a football pitch and will torch any defensive scheme thrown at him.

An underrated yet almost as important element of Lewandowski's arrival at Barça will be his intangible impact on the club's younger players - some of whom may once have idolized him. It's certainly a possibility that promising youngsters such as Fati, Torres, and Pedri might raise their game simply by being in the presence of a legend like Lewandowski every day. It could be because they would not want to let him down or perhaps avoid looking bad in front of him, but either way, these effects cannot be understated and could play key roles in driving Barça towards a first Champions League title since 2015.

Of course, there is one key way in which this transfer could end up backfiring. As was mentioned earlier, Lewandowski is now 33. He is at an age when most strikers begin to decline - some much more dramatically than others. If Lewandowski ends up being one of them, Barça might just end up worse off compared to where they were before.

That being said, Lewandowski is in no way just "any ordinary striker". When a player like Lewandowski is there for the taking, any club with the means to do so should make the move. Barça have done just that and are thus likely to reap the rewards.

It looks as though fun times at Camp Nou lie ahead.

The Weekly Take, Issue 218: A Career-Derailing Move?

After seven years at Manchester City, Raheem Sterling has agreed personal terms regarding a move to Chelsea. The London club will sign Sterling from the Citizens after paying a transfer fee of £45 million. Sterling will become the Blues' first major signing since the club's takeover by Todd Boehly in May following the outcome of British government sanctions which ultimately removed Roman Abramovich from his former position as the club's owner.

Sterling's time at the Etihad Stadium was full of success. During his stint at City, Sterling was a fixture in the starting 11 throughout as he played a key role in City's four Premier League titles as well as their run to the Champions League final in 2021. However, it's entirely conceivable that this run of success could come to a screeching halt upon his arrival at Stamford Bridge.

Chelsea's run of failure as far as their signings of attacking players are concerned is almost certainly unprecedented. Players such as Álvaro Morata, Gonzalo Higuaín, Christian Pulisic, Kai Havertz, Timo Werner, and Romelu Lukaku have been signed to much fanfare and often for enormous transfer fees at various points over the past half-decade. Every single one has not even come close to living up to the hype.

At this point, this is to be expected of Chelsea. Expensive dud after expensive dud in the transfer market. There are no signs whatsoever to indicate that anything will change with regard to Sterling. To make matters worse, Sterling might be one of those players who peaked young and has already started declining.

While still a relatively effective winger as of last season, Sterling has not even been close to his peak in recent years. Over the three-season stretch from 2017-18 to 2019-20, the Kingston-born player scored 55 league goals while emerging as arguably the second-best English player during that span. At the end of the 2019-20 season, Sterling was still just 25; many assumed that his absolute peak was yet to come.

However, what many overlooked was that much of Sterling's success at the time was predicated on his speed and athleticism. These, of course, are traits which will rapidly dwindle with age. Considering the frequency that a younger Sterling would "step on the accelerator", there was always the possibility that he'd begin to wear down more rapidly than would most other players. While he has not suffered any major injuries over the past two seasons, he has nonetheless shown clear signs of decline.

With this in mind, Chelsea's decision to lock Sterling up for the next five years is likely to have been a poor one. After just over half of his contract's duration, he will be 30. A player like Sterling will likely be a shell of himself by that age. By the time Chelsea are ready to ship him out, they will only be able to fetch a small fraction of the transfer fee they paid for a player so clearly on a steep downswing.

Returning to my point about Chelsea themselves: when was the last time Chelsea made a splashy signing of a striker, winger, or number 10 and had it work out? One would have to go all the way back to the summer of 2014 to find examples. Back then, Chelsea signed Diego Costa and Cesc Fàbregas. Since then, Chelsea have swung and missed time and time again. Given Chelsea's track record, there is absolutely no conceivable reason why they can be trusted with any big-money attacking signing, let alone one like Sterling who might "fall off the cliff" sooner than many other wingers.

Now, I do not think Sterling is a scrub by any means. Although I do think he has already peaked, I also believe that he has another two to three seasons as an above-average starter left in him before he really starts falling off. Certainly, he isn't washed up just yet. But when he eventually does fall off, it could really be ugly.

The reality is that all signs point to this being yet another major transfer error on Chelsea's part. It seems as though the change in ownership has not changed anything for Chelsea, at least as far as this area is concerned.