Friday, August 27, 2021

The Weekly Take, Issue 173: Title Contenders Overnight

Just last week, if you had asked me about what I thought of Manchester United's chances of winning a title this season, I'd have said "slim to none". In a best-case scenario, I'd have expected the Red Devils to have reached the Champions League quarterfinals and finished third in the Premier League. Do note that this would've been my prediction for what I thought would've been the absolute best results that this season's United team could've achieved.

Of course, all of this changed with just one transfer. In a stunning move that will have surely changed the landscape of European football, Cristiano Ronaldo signed for Manchester United after having spent three years at Juventus. Ronaldo will begin his second stint at United after having played there from 2003 to 2009. During his first six years at United, Ronaldo won the Champions League and Ballon d'Or in 2008 as well as three Premier League titles.

Remarkably, the transfer was made for the astonishingly low price of €25 million. This figure would ordinarily be understandable, given the fact that Ronaldo will be 37 in February. However, even at his age, the Portuguese legend has shown no signs of slowing down and could easily have commanded triple the price.

Ronaldo's arrival has turned United into genuine contenders for both the Premier League and Champions League titles. With Ronaldo on their roster, United now possess arguably the most potent attacking force in world football. They add Ronaldo to an attacking line which already includes Bruno Fernandes, Jadon Sancho, Marcus Rashford, Mason Greenwood, and Anthony Martial. It's more than likely that this season, there will be an avalanche of goals at Old Trafford.

It almost seems as though this United team was set up for Ronaldo's return at any time. Prior to United's acquisition of Ronaldo, Fernandes had been their best player. However, as great a player as Fernandes is, he seems to have hit his peak at a level just below that of "centrepiece of a Champions League-winning team". That's not a knock on Fernandes by any means. There are fewer than 10, and sometimes five, such players in the world at any given time.

Ronaldo, on the other hand, is one of those players. In addition to the many goals he will undoubtedly score for United, he will bring intangibles to the team - more than any other player in the world could. He is perhaps the most clutch player in the history of football. Where do we even begin with this? His five Champions League titles, four of which came as the best player of 2013-18 Real Madrid - the greatest dynasty in the history of club football? Coming out on top in an epic duel with Zlatan Ibrahimović with a spot in the World Cup on the line? Or the countless times he almost single-handedly willed his United or Real teams to victory? This is the mentality with which he will infuse this United team - it might just be the X-factor that United need.

On top of that, no one can say that this United team is not a balanced one. In addition to their attacking prowess, United can boast of the likes of Harry Maguire, Luke Shaw, Paul Pogba, and Scott McTominay - a solid foundation which will provide their attackers with what they need behind them.

Additionally, it really is now or never for head coach Ole Gunnar Solskjær. After almost three years at the helm, Solskjær has not yet led United to any titles. While this would not have been expected prior to Ronaldo's arrival, everything will certainly have changed now. If United once again finish the season empty-handed, it will be extremely likely that the Norwegian will lose his job.

This is probably United's most talented team since the 2008-09 edition, the last time Ronaldo was on the team. That team also featured Nemanja Vidić, Wayne Rooney, Patrice Evra, and Carlos Tevez; it would only be denied back-to-back Champions League titles by a Barcelona team which, quite simply, went "god mode".

It's much too early in the season to conclusively say anything, but there seems to be no reason why United fans shouldn't consider their team in contention to clinch the fourth Champions League title in the club's history this season.

Sunday, August 22, 2021

The Weekly Take, Issue 172: The Missing Piece

After eight years, one of the most underrated centre-forwards in football history has returned to his old stomping grounds and made an immediate impact. He made the loudest statement imaginable: "this is what you've been missing out on for all these years".

In a London derby at the Emirates Stadium, Chelsea defeated Arsenal 2-0. Making his first league appearance for Chelsea since August 2013, Romelu Lukaku opened the scoring for the Blues. Reece James would add another to seal the victory for the reigning European champions.

When Lukaku first arrived at Stamford Bridge as an 18-year-old in 2011, the Belgian was just fifth in the club's pecking order up front. Didier Drogba, Fernando Torres, Daniel Sturridge, and Salomon Kalou were all getting more playing time than he was. Keep in mind that this was a Drogba long past his prime and a Torres who was a mere shell of the elite striker which he had once been.

The next season, Lukaku would be sent on loan to West Bromwich Albion, where the first signs of the great player he would someday become began to evidence themselves. Lukaku scored 17 league goals for a team which was otherwise devoid of any significant talent whatsoever. After returning to Chelsea the next season, he would play just two league matches before spending four years at Everton, where he would break out and emerge as one of the most promising young stars in world football.

Stints at Manchester United and Inter Milan would follow; it would be at Inter where Lukaku would firmly establish himself as one of, at minimum, the top three centre-forwards on the planet. Scoring goals at an astonishing clip, Lukaku would be the driving force behind Inter's Serie A title in 2021 - their first in 11 years. This compelled Chelsea to bring Lukaku back to London for the extravagant yet fitting sum of €115 million.

The idea of just one signing making the team which just won the Champions League an even bigger threat may sound preposterous at first. Yet, this is exactly the case with Lukaku. Last season, no Chelsea player scored more than seven goals in the league. Lukaku should easily manage more than 20 himself; his return to Chelsea almost certainly makes them favourites for a first league title since 2017. His 24 league goals last season would have been enough to have placed him as the Premier League's leading goalscorer; in fact, had he never left for Inter, he would have claimed this honour in back-to-back seasons.

Lukaku's combination of physicality, athleticism, positional awareness, and finishing is extremely rare; this combination has made him the superstar striker he now is. It is no wonder that he commanded such an extravagant transfer fee - and deservedly so. What's more, Robert Lewandowski is now 33 years old and soon to reach his decline while Erling Haaland probably won't peak for several more years. Lukaku could realistically claim the status of "undisputed best centre-forward in the world" as soon as this season.

Lukaku's signing also reflects a tremendous improvement on the part of Chelsea's front office. In past years, owner Roman Abramovich might have just spent money recklessly, made a splashy signing for no particular reason, then looked on as that new signing failed to fit into the team and underperformed because he'd have been signed without regard for team setup. This is certainly not the case with Lukaku. Chelsea badly needed a true goalscoring threat to not only make a serious Premier League title challenge, but also to contend for back-to-back Champions League titles. With Lukaku back at Chelsea, they now have exactly that.

It is mind-boggling to think about what kind of success Chelsea could've had if they had never let Lukaku leave for Everton all those years ago. Over the past six seasons, Chelsea have averaged just 70 points in the league; a figure bested by four other clubs. This would surely have been different with Lukaku in tow; indeed, when Lukaku was at United, his 16 goals led the Red Devils to their best league campaign in five years.

Very few clubs get this kind of opportunity to atone for a past error. However, Chelsea now have exactly this chance - they can now focus on building their rebuilt team around Lukaku as they could've done way back then.

Sunday, August 15, 2021

The Weekly Take, Issue 171: Lightning in a Bottle

The 2021-22 La Liga season kicked off with one very obvious absence - that of Barcelona legend Lionel Messi, who left the Catalan club after 17 years to join Paris Saint-Germain in hopes of winning a fifth Champions League title. A fifth title would make Messi's tally equal that of arch-rival Cristiano Ronaldo.

Of course, this meant that there would be serious questions asked of Barça heading into this season. The first league match of the season was expected to be of particular intrigue. Not only would it be the club's first match since 2004 without the iconic Argentine on the roster; it would also see the Blaugrana face off against Real Sociedad, an improving club who have genuine ambitions of making the top four this season.

As it turned out, Messi's absence was not significantly felt - at least this time around. In a victory which was more dominant than the final scoreline indicated, Barça beat Real Sociedad 4-2. Both of Real Sociedad's goals only came within the last 10 minutes of the match. The players who had once been Messi's supporting cast stepped up and made key contributions. Jordi Alba, Gerard Pique, and Frenkie de Jong all registered solid performances for Barça. New signing Memphis Depay was also impressive.

However, much to the surprise of almost everyone, the standout performer of the match was Danish striker Martin Braithwaite. Braithwaite scored two goals and also assisted a goal scored by Sergi Roberto. Throughout all 90 minutes, he repeatedly had the Real Sociedad defense in serious trouble. Without question, this was not only Braithwaite's best performance in a Barça jersey; it was probably also the greatest single-match performance of his career to date.

To give you an idea of just how unexpected Braithwaite's display at Camp Nou this weekend was, he only scored two league goals in 29 appearances last season. Over his two-and-a-half prior seasons spent in La Liga, he had scored just 12 goals in 83 matches. A fringe player during his entire time at Barça to date, almost no one could have possibly seen this coming.

Braithwaite is the stereotypical example of the "career journeyman". After leaving hometown club Esbjerg fB in 2013 at the age of 22, Braithwaite spent the next six years at French side Toulouse and English club Middlesbrough; he also had a loan stint at Bordeaux in 2018. He only joined a club in one of Europe's four leading leagues in 2019 when he signed for La Liga club Leganés.

On top of that, he only even joined Barça in the first place as an emergency signing after Ousmane Dembélé suffered a major long-term injury. Upon Dembélé's return, Braithwaite immediately fell behind the Frenchman in Barça's pecking order. When Sergio Agüero returns from his calf injury, Braithwaite will likely find starts even more difficult to come by. Certainly, Braithwaite is a player who has paid his dues - both years ago and more recently.

Admittedly, Braithwaite has had his moments in a Barcelona jersey. Notably, he scored two goals and had an assist when Barcelona beat Dynamo Kyiv 4-0 in the Champions League last season. However, his performance against Real Sociedad is still superior to his effort in Ukraine because at that point of the group stage, Dynamo had already effectively been eliminated from the tournament, making the match a relatively low-impact clash.

It isn't as though his recent performance was likely to be a sign of things to come, either. Now at age 30, Braithwaite has probably already peaked and will soon be in decline. Although it isn't out of the question that Braithwaite might just happen to be a late bloomer whose best years are yet to come, the history of football has shown us that this is a somewhat unlikely scenario.

This season, Barcelona's strikers are tasked with perhaps the most difficult job in world football - somehow, they must compensate for Messi in the wake of his departure. The bulk of this burden will undoubtedly fall on the shoulders of Depay, Antoine Griezmann, and Agüero. However, for just one day, Barça's unlikely hero caught "lightning in a bottle" to give them get their league campaign off to a strong start.

Maybe, just maybe, life after Messi at Barcelona might not be so tough after all.

Thursday, August 5, 2021

The Weekly Take, Issue 170: Perhaps The Worst Signing of All Time

The entire football world was left in absolute shock after Manchester City agreed to sign Jack Grealish from Aston Villa for the eye-popping price of £100 million. Grealish leaves Villa Park after having spent the first eight years of his career there. This transfer makes Grealish the most expensive English player in history. It is also the largest amount of money ever paid by an English club for the signing of a single player.

Over the years, many clubs have made various ill-advised signings; however, I fully believe that this one tops the lot. There is absolutely no reason why the English midfielder should command a transfer fee of even £50 million, let alone double that.

It is true that he is coming off a breakout season for the West Midlands club and performed above expectations at Euro 2020. At 25, Grealish is just beginning to enter his prime. However, his performances to date as well as his potential ceiling do not even come close to warranting his extravagant transfer fee.

To put this figure into perspective, Grealish is now the sixth-most expensive signing ever. He is ahead of players such as Eden Hazard, Paul Pogba, Cristiano Ronaldo, and Gareth Bale. Barring a massive leap, Grealish will not even come close to approaching the levels that those players attained when at their respective peaks.

Here's another statistic to consider: Grealish has become the second-most expensive midfielder in football history, only behind Philippe Coutinho. For that matter, just look at the list of the 10 most expensive football transfers. With the exception of Ousmane Dembélé, Grealish is clearly several tiers below every other player on that list.

And on top of that: what exactly does Grealish bring to City which they don't already have? Raheem Sterling and Bernardo Silva both possess similar skillsets to what Grealish has; both are also clearly better players. Grealish will also have to compete with Kevin De Bruyne and Riyad Mahrez for a starting berth. This means that it could very well have been the case that City just spent £100 million to sign a player who will primarily find himself on the bench.

At this point, I would select Dembélé's move from Borussia Dortmund to Barcelona for €105 million in 2017 as the worst signing ever. Despite all the hype which accompanied the Frenchman's arrival at Camp Nou, a combination of both injuries and underwhelming play have seen him slip down the pecking order at the Catalan club. Certainly, Barça must now be looking back on his purchase with regret, especially considering the fact that while he did seem to have a promising future early in his career, almost no one pegged him as a player worthy of such a high transfer price.

It certainly looks as though a similar scenario is playing out with Grealish's move to City. However, this transfer could end up being even worse than Dembélé's for several reasons. For one thing, Grealish is 25; Dembélé was 20 when he joined Barça. Though extremely unlikely, it was not as unrealistic for some to expect Dembélé to become an elite player due to his younger age. It will be almost impossible for Grealish to live up to his lofty price tag.

Grealish's club of origin also makes his transfer even more damning. Aston Villa finished 11th in the Premier League last season. In his entire time at the club, that was Villa's best league finish. His only taste of a high-stakes top-level match at club level was the 2015 FA Cup final which Villa lost to Arsenal. On the other hand, when Dembélé came to Catalonia from Dortmund, he had been part of a team which had just finished third in the Bundesliga, won the DFB-Pokal, and reached the quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League.

On the face of it, there seems to have been absolutely no logic or thought applied by City's front office when making this signing. It's an extreme overpay for a player who has proven almost nothing, does not appear to have superstar potential, and will likely be confined to the bench most of the time.

I'm certainly willing to be proven wrong, but five years from now, I fully except this signing to have gone down as one of the worst signings, if not the worst signing, of all time.