Wednesday, January 27, 2021

The Weekly Take, Issue 143: Plagued by an Inferiority Complex

This season's race for the Premier League's four Champions League spots for the 2021-22 season has to be considered one of the most hotly-contested ever. As of this post, the top seven teams in the league are separated by just eight points with barely over half the season played. One of the teams which needed points desperately in order to maintain their pursuit of a top-four spot just missed out on an opportunity to not only do so, but also put a dent in one of their direct rivals' chances.

Everton and Leicester City played to a 1-1 draw at Goodison Park during this matchday. James Rodríguez opened the scoring for Everton in the 30th minute, but a second-half error by Toffees goalkeeper Jordan Pickford allowed Youri Tielemans to equalize for Leicester. Had Everton won, they would have climbed to fourth in the league and overtaken crosstown rivals Liverpool, albeit temporarily with Liverpool due to play against Tottenham next. However, Everton's failure to pick up maximum points saw them remain in seventh. With how tight the league is at the moment, Pickford's error and the two dropped points because of it could prove costly at season's end.

The very fact that it was Liverpool who Carlo Ancelotti's team would have overtaken certainly could have played a role in Everton's failure to beat Leicester. This is a club which, for virtually the entirety of their existence, have been in the shadow of the more storied, illustrious Merseyside club. Over the past 30 years, only twice have Everton finished ahead of the Reds in the league. Just to rub it in for Everton, one of the seasons in which they did so was in 2004-05. That year, despite Everton placing ahead of Liverpool in the league, Liverpool's iconic come-from-behind Champions League victory ensured that the blue half of Merseyside would once again be overlooked.

Further evidence of this inferiority complex can be seen in these statistics: the last time Everton won a Merseyside derby was in 2010, while the last time Everton won an away derby match without being aided by a Liverpool red card was in 1995. These facts clearly point to an inferiority complex which has permeated Goodison Park for decades.

This season was supposed to have been so different for Everton. The off-season acquisition of Rodríguez from Real Madrid as well as the continued expected improvement of players such as Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Richarlison, and Yerry Mina were expected to provide a significant boost to Everton's top four chances. In addition, this season was to be Ancelotti's first full campaign at the helm; surely, one of the greatest coaches in football history could work his magic and make things happen.

Unfortunately, it hasn't quite panned out thus far. After a hot start to the season which saw them briefly lead the Premier League, they have since struggled for consistency. One reason for this can be seen in the relative weakness of their supporting cast. Players such as Pickford, Alex Iwobi, and Gylfi Sigurðsson have clearly underperformed this season. In addition, although his play apart from his goalscoring has been otherwise solid, Richarlison is currently in the midst of an alarming slump in front of the net. With around half the season over, Richarlison has scored just two league goals thus far; he had managed 13 in both of the past two seasons.

Everton will also definitely be ruing their decision to send Moise Kean on loan to Paris Saint-Germain. The young Italian striker is having a breakout season in the French capital. He has already scored nine league goals; more than any Everton player other than Calvert-Lewin has managed to date. Of course, it must be said that Ligue 1 is a far easier league in comparison to the Premier League. That being said, it can't be denied that Everton could really use Kean's input as they push for a first top-four league finish in 16 years.

Going back to the prior point about Everton's inferiority complex, it is somewhat ironic but probably true that if Liverpool were not underperforming themselves this season, Everton would be doing better than they are right now. They know that they have a slight chance to at last emerge from Liverpool's shadow; this in turn might be heaping additional pressure on Everton.

It isn't impossible for them to make the top four; however, their odds are becoming increasingly slim.

Wednesday, January 20, 2021

The Weekly Take, Issue 142: The Only Ones Who Can Stop Them

At the beginning of each new Bundesliga season, it often seems as though the main question is not about who will win the league title, but instead who will finish second behind Bayern Munich. This is perfectly understandable, given the fact that Bayern have claimed the title for the past eight seasons in a row.

However, it is not out of the question that for the first time since 2012, a new name could end up raising the trophy at the season's end. That team is RB Leipzig. In their most recent league match, Leipzig continued to apply pressure to league leaders Bayern by beating Union Berlin 1-0. Emil Forsberg scored the only goal of the match which saw Die Bullen remain within four points of Bayern.

Even though only half of the season has concluded, every challenger other than Leipzig has fallen by the wayside. Bayer Leverkusen, VfL Wolfsburg, Borussia Dortmund - all three are now too far behind Bayern to mount a serious title challenge. If any team is going to be the one to deny Bayern a ninth consecutive Bundesliga title this season, it would surely have to be Leipzig.

As has so often been the case in recent years, Leipzig's off-season went well. Their most notable signing was Spanish left-back Angeliño, brought in on loan from Manchester City. Remarkably, despite his position, Angeliño is the club's leading goalscorer this season as of this post. After years of either being consigned to City's reserves or being sent out on loan to a host of lesser clubs, he has had a breakout season and become one of the key pieces in Leipzig's title push. Perhaps the only full-backs in the Bundesliga who have been better than him this season have been Bayern duo Alphonso Davies and David Alaba.

Leipzig's front office deserves plaudits for their construction of this team. Despite not having any truly elite players, every piece that they have brought together fits perfectly. A team built around the likes of Angeliño, Dani Olmo, Dayot Upamecano, Marcel Sabitzer, and Nordi Mukiele does not, on paper, seem like one which would be making league title challenges and deep Champions League runs. However, this team's impressive chemistry and cohesion have allowed them to once again exceed expectations. On top of all of this, they do have a player with genuine superstar potential. Although Upamecano did not make the leap to that level as some had expected him to do this season, his ceiling remains sky-high. At just 22, there is no reason why the Frenchman cannot develop into one of the world's best centre-backs before too long.

Of course, the largest part of the credit for Leipzig's success must go to head coach Julian Nagelsmann. Nagelsmann has continued to build his reputation as one of the world's best coaches with another outstanding season. As has been the case in almost every season of his coaching career, Nagelsmann has Leipzig overachieving in relation to what had been expected of them. Despite reaching the semifinals of last season's Champions League, many expected them to be behind teams such as Dortmund, Leverkusen, and Borussia Mönchengladbach this season. While still unlikely, a league title this season would be by far the crowning achievement of a coaching career which has already seen remarkable success even in just a few short years.

All this being said, Leipzig still have to overcome the psychological effect which Bayern exert over all other Bundesliga contenders. Many teams over these past eight seasons have faltered after taking the lead or coming close to Bayern simply because of the mental block which Bayern's sheer dominance has imposed. On top of that, Bayern have the obvious advantage of having the best player on the planet in Robert Lewandowski, who has already scored an astonishing 22 league goals - almost double the tally of nearest competitors André Silva, Wout Weghorst, and Erling Haaland. Clearly, it's going to be an uphill task for Leipzig to unseat the Bavarians and claim a historic first league title.

Leipzig have finished in the top three in three of the last four Bundesliga seasons. However, over those three seasons, they ended the season behind Bayern by an average of 14 points. This season, though, the fact that they are just four points behind at the halfway point is encouraging. It will be difficult, but it could very well be possible.

Sunday, January 17, 2021

The Weekly Take, Issue 141: Are the Wheels Coming Off?

The latest match in English football's most iconic rivalry saw Manchester United and Liverpool play to a 0-0 draw. In a vital clash which will have significant ramifications on this season's Premier League title race, neither side would have left satisfied with the result. While United remained top of the league, cross-town rivals Manchester City recorded a victory which saw them close to within one point of United. It must also be noted that City have played one match fewer than have United.

As for Liverpool, the result kept them three points behind United. They also saw Leicester City overtake them after Leicester won their match during this matchday, leaving Liverpool fourth in the league.

It must now be noted that Liverpool's recent dip in form has now turned into a full-blown slump. The Reds are now winless over their last four league matches, picking up just three points in the process. They have also failed to score in each of their last three. What makes this an even greater cause for concern for Liverpool is the fact that this season's league title race is perhaps the tightest and most wide-open of all time.

Much of the blame for Liverpool's recent run of poor form has to go to their underperforming front three of Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mané, and Roberto Firmino. Over the last four league matches, the trio have combined for just one goal and have been well below their best. This is a group of players who combined for 46 league goals last season, propelling Liverpool to a first league title since 1990 and striking fear into the hearts of defenders all over England and beyond. However, over the past month, they have collectively seemed to have entirely lost their touch in front of goal. It's one thing for this to happen to just one player - for all three to have simultaneous slumps is absolutely devastating for Liverpool.

Another underperformer in recent weeks has been right-back Trent Alexander-Arnold. When he is in top form, the man who was born in the shadow of Anfield is the best full-back on the planet. Unfortunately, he was perhaps the worst player on the field against United. His normally excellent crosses were way off the mark and struggled to contain United's attack - if not for Jordan Henderson and Fabinho, Liverpool would likely have lost this match. Alexander-Arnold also made several glaring defensive errors which could easily have resulted in United goals. This dismal performance follows an equally awful one against Southampton - a match in which he played so poorly that head coach Jürgen Klopp substituted him in the 77th minute. For a player whose stock just six months ago had been at an all-time high, his slump sticks out like a sore thumb.

That being said, Liverpool do have one key trump card in their corner. Very few coaches in the world can steer a team out of a predicament like this. Fortunately for Liverpool, theirs is such a coach. Klopp has proven time and again that he is perhaps the world's best coach. Certainly, four points is not an insurmountable gap; however, with how tight this season's title race has been, it could very well prove to be just that when all is said and done. Nevertheless, there are very few, if any, coaches that you'd pick over Klopp to take Liverpool from their current position to back-to-back league titles for the first time since 1984.

However, even Klopp has begun to grow skeptical about his own team's diminishing title hopes. Following the match against United, the German spoke about how his side's main goal would now be to qualify for next season's Champions League by finishing in the top four in the league. In contrast to his usual confidence (some might even say brashness), Klopp did not sound anything like a coach who expects to be embroiled in a league title race at the season's end.

Though there's still half a season to be played, the unique character of this season's title race means that even one short slump like what Liverpool are going through could prove fatal to a Premier League title bid.

Liverpool have enjoyed a remarkable past three years including a Premier League and Champions League title apiece as well as runner-up finishes in both. They have clearly been England's best club over this span. However, they now face one of their toughest challenges to date; it could be one which they might not be able to overcome.

Thursday, January 7, 2021

The Weekly Take, Issue 140: A Team Built for the Future

Juventus' 3-1 victory over Serie A leaders AC Milan saw the Bianconeri close the gap to their opponents to seven points. Federico Chiesa scored Juve's first two goals either side of a Davide Calabria equalizer. Substitute Weston McKennie went on to make all three points safe with a 78th-minute goal.

Although Juve still face many obstacles in their attempt to claim yet another Serie A title, there is definite cause for optimism in Turin, and not just because of this victory. Despite the fact that they might realistically finish this season empty-handed, Juve are positioned very well with regard to their future.

It will soon be time for Juve to begin the post-Cristiano Ronaldo era. The Portuguese legend will turn 36 next month; as the cliché goes, "Father Time is undefeated". Inevitably, he will soon suffer from a terminal decline in form. That being said, his supporting cast is good enough to take over once he is no longer at his best.

Juve have perhaps the most underrated midfield in world football today. Although they might not be able to boast of a genuinely world-class player in midfield right now, they can choose from a formidable selection including Chiesa, McKennie, Adrien Rabiot, Aaron Ramsey, Rodrigo Bentancur, and Dejan Kulusevski. What's more, every one of these players except for Ramsey is aged 25 or younger. Add to that the fact that Juve are one of the few teams with enough clout to keep this young core intact for the foreseeable future, and it becomes obvious - this could serve as the foundation of a team which could really go places in the future, especially if they can turn Chiesa's loan deal from Fiorentina into a permanent one.

Of course, if Juve are to truly make a challenge for a Champions League title, they need a Ballon d'Or-level superstar who will make all the difference when the stakes are at their highest. Though they might not have such a player other than Ronaldo at the moment, they do have one who I believe will ascend to someday become a Ballon d'Or contender himself: Matthijs de Ligt. Ever since his breakout season for Ajax in 2017-18, the Dutch centre-back has quickly established himself as one of the best defenders in Serie A. At just 21, although de Ligt is still years from reaching his absolute ceiling, he has already been named to the FIFPro World11, won the Golden Boy and Kopa Trophy awards, and placed in the top 10 in FIFA's The Best award rankings. Though it's still very early in his career, we could very well be witnessing the rise of one of the greatest defenders of all time.

If they keep their key players together for two to three more years while also perhaps adding another big signing next year, Juve will be an absolute force when their younger players reach their prime. Though this is probably not their year in Europe (and perhaps even domestically as well), they could be in prime position to break their quarter-century Champions League drought within the next few years.

All of that being said, however, there is one other key point which must be addressed: the man in the dugout. Since taking over as head coach at the start of the season, Andrea Pirlo has had mixed results. While Juve did finish in first place in their Champions League group, the Turin club are also in fourth place in the league even after their victory over the Rossoneri. Pirlo's tactics have not always been on point; furthermore, his reliance on the somewhat obsolete 4-4-2 formation may also be a cause for concern. As Pirlo is still in his first season in charge of Juve, there is still time for him to refine his tactical approach and further familiarize himself with the weapons he has at his disposal. However, it could easily turn out that he is simply not good enough to lead Juve to ultimate glory - only time will tell.

It may sound strange, but in this season which might see Juve miss out on the league title for the first time in a decade, the club's fans have perhaps more reason than ever before to look forward to what could be an extremely bright future.

Friday, January 1, 2021

The Weekly Take, Issue 139: The Catalyst for Their Revival

Manchester United took a major step towards claiming their first Premier League title since 2013 by beating Aston Villa 2-1. This victory was of particular importance for the Red Devils because arch-rivals and league leaders Liverpool only managed to register a 0-0 draw against Newcastle. These results mean that United now only trail Liverpool on goal difference. Ole Gunnar Solskjær's team now have a legitimate chance to claim a title they have not even approached in recent years.

United's current form represents a remarkable turnaround from that of just one year ago. This time last year, United were in the midst of a horrendous slump which saw them pick up just 10 points over eight league matches. They fell as low as eighth in the league; as a result, Solskjær was almost fired. This begs the question: how have United bounced back so well and so rapidly?

The answer is very simple - it is only four words long: Bruno Miguel Borges Fernandes.

Fernandes further underscored his status as the driving force behind United's revival by scoring the winning goal from the penalty spot against Villa. This was just the latest instance of the Portuguese midfielder once again saving United when they needed him most. To put how important he has been for United, consider this fact: thus far this season, United have scored 33 league goals. Fernandes has either scored or assisted 18 of them. It isn't just his scoring and passing, though - his off-ball movement, pressing skills, and ability to dictate the rhythm and pace of play have set the tone for United throughout their current campaign.

Fernandes' intangibles have also been lauded by United fans. His leadership qualities and willingness to hold teammates accountable have caused many to believe that he should be named United's permanent captain - a belief that has seen its traction grow recently after Fernandes' impressive debut with the armband. This came against Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League.

When United signed Fernandes last year, they were still in the slump which was previously mentioned. He was a major reason behind not only their return to form, but an eventual charge up the league table to finish third and seal a spot in this season's Champions League - something which had seemed unlikely before he arrived at Old Trafford.

Almost no one could have expected or predicted Fernandes' sudden ascension after he signed for United. Somewhat of a late bloomer, Fernandes did not emerge on most fans' radars until being named as the Primeira Liga's Player of Year for the second time in 2019. He was already 24 years old at the time and prior to playing for Sporting CP, he had been through uneventful stints at Serie A clubs Udinese and Sampdoria. As a result, when he joined United last January, the prevailing thought was that he would be a solid addition to a team still awaiting its centrepiece. Of course, as it turned out, he would be the centrepiece himself.

So impressive was Fernandes that despite playing less than half of United's 2019-20 season, he was named the club's Player of the Year. Never before in the history of Manchester United had this happened.

Fernandes' rise has been as meteoric as it has been unexpected. A year ago, if you'd been asked to rank Fernandes among all players in the world, he'd have barely made the top 50, if even that at all. Today, he is clearly among the top 20 players on the planet with a possible (though admittedly unlikely) argument for top 10. Clearly, if United do indeed go on to clinch the league title, Fernandes will  be the primary reason for their success.

I'll even say this: Edinson Cavani should not have been given United's iconic #7 jersey upon his arrival during the pre-season. Cavani should have been given Fernandes' current #18, leaving Fernandes to deservedly don perhaps the most iconic football jersey of all time.

It's extremely rare that just one signing can inspire an uptick in form quite like that of Fernandes, but that is exactly what has happened at United. What makes this even better for United fans is the fact that all signs point to Fernandes remaining at Old Trafford for many years to come. If he does and his supporting cast continues to deliver him the help he needs, expect regular silverware to start coming back to Manchester United.