Wednesday, October 21, 2020

The Weekly Take, Issue 129: Has the Magic Run Out?

When the draw for this season's UEFA Champions League was released, one of the fixtures which caught the attention of many was the match between reigning champions Bayern Munich and perennial title contenders Atlético Madrid. However, despite the expectations heading into the first matchday of the tournament, not many could have predicted just how one-sided this match would be.

In a dominant display that illustrated why they are the defending champions and clearly the team to beat this season, Bayern utterly torched Atlético, beating the Madrid club 4-0. Kingsley Coman scored two goals, while Leon Goretzka and Corentin Tolisso also made their way onto the scoresheet.

This was an unexpected result because not only are Atlético typically in the mix for the title; they have also been the gold standard for overachievement with limited resources for the past decade. Despite their relative lack of financial might and glamour when compared to many of Europe's other leading clubs, Atlético have been very competitive over the past 10 years and were just minutes away from what would've been a legendary first Champions League title over city rivals Real Madrid in 2014.

During the past off-season, Atlético even managed to land the services of former Barcelona legend Luis Suárez. After a glittering six-year run in Catalonia, the arrival of new head coach Ronald Koeman saw the Uruguayan forced out of Camp Nou, leaving Atlético free to take advantage and make one of the biggest signings in club history.

However, the way that events transpired proved to be worrying for Atlético. Although they have outperformed expectations for many years now, at some point they will no longer be able to keep it up. Sadly for fans of Los Rojiblancos, their heavy loss in Bavaria may have shown that this could be the year when it all comes crashing down.

Atlético were not even remotely a threat throughout the match. While it is true that their German opponents were clearly the superior team, one would nevertheless have expected a far better performance out of Diego Simeone's team. It is clear that this iteration of Atlético Madrid is nowhere near the level of their 2013-17 team.

For years, Atlético have been able to handle departures of players such as Diego Forlán, Sergio Agüero, Fernando Torres, Thibaut Courtois, and Antoine Griezmann without letting these departures have a severely negative impact on the team's performance. However, this may very well be coming to an end soon. Atlético have already begun to show signs of decline, especially over the past two seasons.

Although Atlético finished second in La Liga in the 2018-19 season, they did so with just 76 points. This tally represented their lowest in six years. They also failed to qualify for both the Copa del Rey and Champions League quarterfinals; this had not happened to them since 2007. Last season, their league points total of 70 was their lowest since 2012. They were also eliminated from the Copa del Rey in the round of 32 and the Champions League in the quarterfinals.

This is a team of which much more than what they have produced thus far was expected at the beginning of the season. They have by far the world's best goalkeeper in Jan Oblak. Apart from Suárez, their squad also boasts the likes of Kieran Trippier, Ángel Correa, João Félix, Saúl Ñíguez, and Yannick Carrasco, among others. Add in iconic head coach Simeone in the dugout, and you have a team which should on paper be one of the top seven or eight in Europe.

It might very well appear that the law of averages has finally caught up to Atlético. Their entire club - front office, scouting, coaching staff, players, everyone, really - has been a role model for every other football club in the world in virtually every way. However, given their limited resources when compared to their rivals at the top table, they might no longer be able to defy the odds as they have done so valiantly for so long.

Make no mistake about it - the Atlético Madrid team of 2011 until the present day will be remembered with the greatest fondness even decades from now. If the club is appropriately grateful, someday a statue of Simeone should proudly guard the front gate of the Wanda Metropolitano.

That being said, we might be witnessing the beginning of the end - and maybe a subsequent rebuild.

Saturday, October 17, 2020

The Weekly Take, Issue 128: One Injury Might Change Everything

The latest edition of the Merseyside derby had everything. Heading into the match, this clash already carried more weight than did any other iteration of an Everton-Liverpool match in a long time. Everton's decisions to hire legendary head coach Carlo Ancelotti and sign 2014 World Cup Golden Boot winner James Rodríguez have clearly paid dividends. The Toffees have now established themselves as a genuine force in the league and could potentially have their best league campaign since 2004-05, when they finished fourth.

This time around, the highly eventful encounter between the city rivals ended in a 2-2 draw. Dominic Calvert-Lewin scored Everton's equalizer to keep the club in first place in the Premier League, while what initially seemed to be a winning goal for Liverpool courtesy of Jordan Henderson was waived off by way of VAR. Just to add to the drama, Everton striker Richarlison also received a late red card.

And yet, in spite of all these events, probably the most notable incident of the match took place early in the first half. A dangerous tackle by Everton goalkeeper Jordan Pickford left Liverpool's ace defender Virgil van Dijk severely injured. It would later be found out that van Dijk had suffered a torn ACL and would almost certainly miss the rest of the season.

It cannot be overstated just how devastating a blow this is to Liverpool's season. In 2018-19, van Dijk was clearly the best player on the team and the driving force behind the Reds' victorious Champions League campaign. If not for a miracle shot by Vincent Kompany, Liverpool would have claimed a Premier League and Champions League double that season. Van Dijk, who was almost certainly robbed of a Ballon d'Or despite the finest season by a defender since Fabio Cannavaro's effort in 2006, backed up his breakout season with equally brilliant play at the back during the following season. Liverpool romped to an easy league title victory - their first in 30 years.

Van Dijk has clearly established himself as the best player on this Liverpool team and the best defender in world football. He has been that since around the midway point of the 2018-19 season. As of right now, the gap between the Dutchman and most of his closest competition is massive. Realistically, only Bayern Munich defender Joshua Kimmich and van Dijk's teammate Trent Alexander-Arnold are even in the discussion.

Van Dijk also brings the intangible advantages to Liverpool. Although Henderson may be Liverpool's captain, van Dijk is their unquestioned leader on the field. His leadership, intelligence, and in-game savvy combined with his outstanding play have allowed him to strike fear into any strikers who dares to challenge him.

This injury is a crushing blow to Liverpool's season. Van Dijk is a force who is truly irreplaceable. His injury hands the status of Premier League title favourites to Manchester City. It also knocks them out of the group of leading Champions League contenders alongside Paris Saint-Germain, Bayern Munich, and Real Madrid; I'd have put them in that tier before the injury.

The bad news doesn't stop there for Liverpool fans. There have to be questions raised about how van Dijk will perform upon his return. A torn ACL is arguably the most devastating injury in sports. Long-time Liverpool fans will recall the fact that former Reds superstar Michael Owen was never the same after suffering the same injury. Other players such as Robert Pires, Radamel Falcao, and Jakub Blaszczykowski saw their careers derailed by ACL tears. If van Dijk returns as a shell of himself, Liverpool might not be a Champions League contender for quite some time.

Apart from a 3-0 Champions League semifinal first-leg deficit against Barcelona in 2019, this van Dijk injury is probably the most severe adversity which Liverpool have faced ever since the arrival of Jürgen Klopp as head coach. While the Merseysiders were able to overturn the three-goal deficit against Barça, overcoming the loss of perhaps a top-five player in the world for almost entire season might prove to be a step too far.

This season will be a true test for Liverpool. That said, this Liverpool team have shown that they can never be counted out. If they can summon the spirit of that one magical April night at Anfield over a whole season, don't be surprised to see them once again exceed all expectations.

Sunday, October 11, 2020

The Weekly Take, Issue 127: The Young Lions' Deafening Roar

The latest UEFA Nations League matchday saw England and Belgium facing off in a rematch of the 2018 World Cup third-place playoff. However, this time the result went the other way with England picking up a 2-1 victory. Romelu Lukaku's 16th-minute penalty opened the scoring for Belgium before Marcus Rashford equalized with a spot-kick of his own in the 39th minute. Mason Mount would later score the winning goal for the Three Lions.

This was a confident, assured performance by England. They clearly displayed the mentality of a team which truly belong at the top table of international football. For a team this young, their maturity and poise was evident; not once did they even seem slightly rattled, even after falling one goal behind. What made the victory even more impressive was that their best player, Tottenham star Harry Kane, was restricted to a substitute role due to injury concerns.

The rise and evolution of this England team has been as swift as it has been remarkable.

Two years ago, Gareth Southgate's team had not been expected to make a deep World Cup run but ended up reaching England's first World Cup semifinal since 1990. England took an extremely young and inexperienced team to the tournament; at the beginning of the tournament, only one of their 23 squad members had at that point accumulated 40 caps or more. However, ever since defying the odds in Russia, England have only gone from strength to strength.

In the time since their World Cup run, right-back Trent Alexander-Arnold has clearly established himself as the world's best at his position and the clear second-best player on this team behind Kane. The once widely-criticized Raheem Sterling, who despite being absent from the Belgium match, has silenced his doubters by showing remarkable improvement since 2018. Of course, Kane has continued to perform at his usual excellent level.

You then have to look at the supporting cast, some of whom were not even part of the World Cup squad. England's stars are capably backed up by players such as Rashford, Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Jadon Sancho, Jordan Henderson, Kieran Trippier, and Mason Greenwood. It is also possible that Rashford, Sancho, and Greenwood might eventually rise to the level at which they would be considered truly elite players.

What makes this even more exciting for England is the young age of this team in general; it is likely that they are nowhere near their peak. If they are already arguably a top-three international team in the world now, just imagine how great they could possibly become. No one can deny the obvious any longer - this has to be England's most talented team since their 1966 World Cup-winning roster featuring legends such as Bobby Charlton, Bobby Moore, Alan Ball, and Gordon Banks.

England have all the elements for a possible 2022 World Cup victory in place. Two superstar-level players in Kane and Alexander-Arnold. A well-balanced and young supporting cast. Southgate, a coach who is definitely able to get the best out of this roster. And arguably most importantly of all, something England teams of the past have historically lacked: boatloads of mental strength and fortitude.

However, the biggest obstacle they face might very well be found off the field rather than on it: the notoriously merciless British media. At even the slightest sign of a possible dip in form, they are likely to be eviscerated by the press; often unjustly, too. Even for the toughest and most resilient teams, the media onslaught can end up wearing them down and hindering their performance.

Nevertheless, at the moment, I would place England as the second-most likely team to win the next World Cup, only behind reigning champions and arch-rivals France. They will be even better then when compared to now because more of their players would have reached or be approaching their peak in 2022.

What's more, there is one other factor to consider: will France wilt under the pressure of defending a World Cup title as many teams before them have done? If they do, the door would be wide open for England to claim their second world title and first in 56 years.

Is it coming home? It very well might be.

Sunday, October 4, 2020

The Weekly Take, Issue 126: This Season's Potential Dark Horse Contender

Before I begin, let's rewind the clock to the final of last season's Europa League which saw Sevilla face off against Inter Milan. On paper, the only question before the match was not which team would emerge victorious, but by how many goals Inter would win. After all, this was an Inter team which many had considered to be too good for Europe's secondary club tournament; it was loaded with talent and featured the likes of Alexis Sánchez, Lautaro Martínez, Christian Eriksen, Milan Škriniar, Stefan de Vrij, Christian Eriksen, and player of the tournament Romelu Lukaku.

However, Sevilla defied the odds and emerged victorious by a 3-2 scoreline. Interestingly enough, a Lukaku own goal proved to be the difference between the two teams. The victory should have put more teams on notice than it did; by taking down a powerhouse like the Nerazzurri in a cup final, Sevilla proved that they could probably do some serious damage in the 2020-21 season in the Champions League as well as domestically.

This past La Liga matchday, Sevilla showed that they were able to continue from where they left off last season by holding Barcelona to a 1-1 draw. Sevilla striker Luuk de Jong's opener was cancelled out by Philippe Coutinho's goal; nevertheless, Sevilla showed plenty of heart and grit throughout, stifling Barça's attacking threats on multiple occasions and making life difficult for their Catalan opponents from whistle to whistle.

Sevilla have clearly improved in several ways since their Europa League triumph in August. During the past off-season, Sevilla made some shrewd signings which are likely to bear fruit over the coming season. The Andalusian club signed Óscar Rodríguez from Real Madrid for €13.5 million. Rodríguez had shown some flashes of potential after two solid years on loan at Leganes; however, he and everyone else knew that upon his return to the Bernabéu, he would be unlikely to get much playing time. Sevilla seized their opportunity and made the signing; while not yet a regular starter, do not be surprised if he soon becomes one.

Sevilla also brought back Ivan Rakitić for his second stint at the club after six years at Barça. The Croatian had previously spent three-and-a-half years from 2011 to 2014 at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán. The signing of Rakitić might very well prove to become one of the best signings made by any club this season. It cost Sevilla just €1.5 million to secure his services. Rakitić is already playing as though he never left. He has slotted into the team seamlessly and has clearly been able to elevate this team as the primary creative force in midfield.

Head coach Julen Lopetegui also deserves a lot of credit for the job he has done since taking the reins at Sevilla. After difficult stints in charge of the Spanish national team and subsequently Real Madrid, Lopetegui has completely restored his reputation as a coach and then some. He has shown more tactical nous than most initially assumed he has while also demonstrating the ability to adapt to changing situations mid-match - an area in which far too many coaches of top clubs are lacking. When Lopetegui eventually leaves Sevilla, expect him to be in demand by many of Europe's leading clubs.

However, as shown by both their Europa League victory last season as well as their recent match against Barça, perhaps the greatest attribute of this Sevilla team is their resolve, determination, and fearlessness no matter the odds. It almost seems as though Sevilla thrive on being the underdogs; time and again they have proven that they can never be counted out despite seemingly being overmatched. This attitude has translated to results on the field and with Real, Barça, and Atlético Madrid not being at their very best, there might never be a better opportunity for Sevilla to gatecrash the party and perhaps even clinch their first La Liga title since 1946.

Sevilla were also handed a favourable Champions League draw; they will face Chelsea, Krasnodar, and Rennes. Sevilla should sail into the round of 16 with absolutely no problems at all. From that point forth, it may seem difficult for them to make a deep run, but underestimate Sevilla at your peril - we could be witnessing the beginning of a season which could take many observers by surprise.