Thursday, October 24, 2019

The Weekly Take, Issue 86: How Will They Reach the Next Level?

Among the most intriguing matchups of the most recent Champions League matchday was the clash between Atlético Madrid and Bayer Leverkusen. Although Leverkusen produced a spirited display, it was simply not good enough to overcome the Spanish powerhouse as they succumbed to a 1-0 loss. Álvaro Morata's 78th-minute goal proved to be the difference-maker.

This season is beginning to take on a familiar tone for Leverkusen. In the Bundesliga, although they are only two points behind league leaders Borussia Mönchengladbach, not many are giving them a genuine chance to last the distance and seriously challenge for the league title. In the Champions League, Die Werkself have lost all three matches and face an uphill struggle to even finish third in their group and qualify for the Europa League, let alone advance to the round of 16 of the Champions League.

Every season almost seems to be the same for the club from North Rhine-Westphalia. Ever since the 2009-10, Leverkusen have finished between second and fifth in the Bundesliga in every season except 2016-17, only advanced beyond the quarterfinals of the DFB-Pokal once, and never advanced beyond the Champions League's round of 16.

Over this decade-long stretch, Leverkusen have certainly not been short of quality players. The likes of Toni Kroos, Tin Jedvaj, Stefan Kießling, Javier Hernández, Son Heung-min, and most notably of all, Arturo Vidal have played for Leverkusen during this period. Now, while one might note that all of these players with the exception of Hernández have since left the club, it should also be recognized that over this same period, teams such as Atlético, Napoli, Borussia Dortmund, Tottenham, and reigning European champions Liverpool have been able to overcome the departures of many a star player and establish themselves as genuine forces in domestic and European competition alike.

That being said, the question asked by every Leverkusen fans remains unanswered: how might the club follow in these other teams' footsteps and reach a level at which they are among the fringe, if not the leading, contenders for titles in Germany and in Europe?

The first place to look is, of course, the transfers made by Leverkusen during this past off-season. Leverkusen spent €61 million on player signings during the most recent transfer window. The most notable of these signings was that of central midfielder Kerem Demirbay. The Germany international was signed from Hoffenheim for €32 million, and this represents the first problem - this signing was an obvious overpay; the club seems to have no coherent strategy in place when signing players.

Instead of signing four players for €61 million, Leverkusen could have attempted to go all-in on a big-name player, with perhaps a lesser name to accompany the big-name signing if sufficient funds were to be left over. They already have the supporting pieces in place; Kai Havertz, Lukáš Hrádecký, Sven and Lars Bender, Karim Bellarabi, and Kevin Volland form a solid group. All they need is that one last guy who will make things happen and really get this team firing; however, it appears that they have missed their chance in this regard.

Leverkusen should also consider replacing Peter Bosz as head coach.

Throughout his 17-year coaching career, Bosz has not proven that he is capable of leading a high-level club to the next level. He has never won a title of any sort as a coach, while his most recent job prior to taking over at Leverkusen ended with his dismissal from the position at Dortmund after a dismal start to the 2017-18 season. A new person at the helm would go a long way towards shaking things up and injecting fresh life into the team.

Having said all of this, Leverkusen are not a poorly run club by any means. Given the fact that they are a relatively unglamorous team in a small market, they have done fairly well. Their signings, while sometimes questionable, have not been terrible. The team itself does have a clear identity, and they have been performing at a relatively stable and consistent level.

However, in order to ascend to the next level, some clear but difficult choices have to be made. They will determine if over the next few years, Leverkusen remain at this level or become true title contenders and a real force in European football.

Monday, October 21, 2019

The Weekly Take, Issue 85: The Next Invincibles?

The latest instalment of perhaps the most iconic rivalry in world football ended with an unexpected result.

Manchester United, who up to this point have been in truly awful form this season, managed to hold overwhelming favourites Liverpool to a 1-1 draw. In fact, the Red Devils almost pulled off a stunning upset against the Merseyside juggernaut, but Adam Lallana's 85th-minute goal matched Marcus Rashford's first-half strike for United and earned a share of the points for Liverpool.

The result also meant that Liverpool's unbeaten league streak would continue for yet another game. Although it is still early in the season, this fact is notable because prior to the match, Liverpool midfielder Georginio Wijnaldum claimed that Liverpool could be able to complete the entire Premier League campaign without losing a single match.

Over the last half-century, this achievement has only been accomplished four times by a club in one of Europe's four major leagues: Perugia in the 1978-79 Serie A, AC Milan in the 1991-92 Serie A, Arsenal in the 2003-04 Premier League, and Juventus in the 2011-12 Serie A.

When looking at these four seasons, it becomes clear that all four "Invincibles" campaigns were very different.

There really isn't much to say about Perugia's unbeaten season other than the fact that they did not even win the league, finishing three points behind AC Milan. This team was certainly a one-season wonder; they were seventh in the league the season before and ninth the season after. Perugia have not even been close to anything approaching that level of success since.

AC Milan's season was the most dominant of all four mentioned. With legendary head coach Fabio Capello at the helm, this was an outrageously stacked team containing players such as Franco Baresi, Paolo Maldini, Ruud Gullit, Frank Rijkaard, and Marco van Basten. They won the league by eight points over Juventus; however, it must be remembered that this was a 34-game season in the era when a win was worth two points. After adjusting for scoring system changes and applying the new point ratio to 38 games instead of 34, the Rossoneri would have earned 87 points to Juve's 74. Perhaps even more astonishing was their goal difference of +53, which was a remarkable 30 goals superior to Juve's. In general, this was one of the greatest single-season teams of all time.

Arsenal's unbeaten season was almost as dominant as Milan's. Although the Gunners did not possess the overall star power that the Milan team did, it nevertheless did have some all-time greats including Patrick Vieira, Ashley Cole, Dennis Bergkamp, and of course, Thierry Henry. However, despite the general strength of this team, this particular season could be viewed as something of a carry job. This can be seen in the fact that in the voting for the 1992 FIFA World Player of the Year, three Milan players featured in the top 10 with van Basten taking top honours, while only Henry did so in 2004, finishing second. Henry had a season for the ages as he scored 39 goals in all competitions, including 30 in the league. Arsenal finished the season 11 points ahead of Chelsea to clinch their third league title in seven seasons in emphatic fashion.

Despite completing an unbeaten league campaign, Juventus were not particularly dominant in the season which they did so. The Bianconeri only won the league title over Milan by four points in a closely contested Serie A title race. This was very much a team effort; no Juve player scored more than 10 goals that season. However, individual standouts included Andrea Pirlo who had the best season of his career, as well as Arturo Vidal who had a breakout season in his first campaign in Turin as he became recognized as one of the world's best central midfielders.

It is certainly possible that Liverpool will emulate these teams. They have the world's best coach in Jürgen Klopp as well as several players who seem to be all-time greats in the making such as Virgil van Dijk, Mo Salah, and Alisson. This already seems to be one of the greatest teams of the last decade, will almost certainly win the Premier League, and are probably the favourites to win back-to-back Champions League title. Even taking all of this into consideration, an unbeaten league campaign would send their legacy to a completely new level because of the rarity of such an achievement.

Sunday, October 13, 2019

The Weekly Take, Issue 84: The Straw that Stirs the Drink

In the latest round of qualifying matches for Euro 2020, reigning world champions France took on Iceland at the Laugardalsvöllur stadium in Reykjavík. One would have expected Les Bleus to have had no trouble in dispatching the Icelandic team, but such was not the case. France were well below their best against Iceland, squandering many goalscoring opportunities and playing a rather discombobulated and disjointed game. It took a 66th-minute penalty scored by Olivier Giroud to give France a 1-0 victory.

There were several possible reasons behind France's unimpressive performance. Fatigue, underestimation of their opponent, poor tactical planning - any of those could be cited. However, one of the key reasons behind France's diminished level of play against Iceland was the absence of their best and most influential player.

Although Giroud's Chelsea teammate N'Golo Kanté had initially been named to France's starting 11 before the match, he suffered an injury during the warmups and was replaced by Moussa Sissoko. Kanté's absence was clearly felt as France were nowhere near the level at which they are capable of playing; had they been playing against a better team, they would not have escaped with a 1-0 win.

It's impossible to understate how important Kanté is to this France team.

During France's victorious World Cup run last year, he was arguably the best player on the team. Kanté and Paul Pogba formed a central midfield pairing for the ages; the two midfield superstars' play served as the foundation for France's World Cup victory. It was Kanté who controlled the tempo of each game, ruined many an opponent's offensive foray, played stellar defense on all his opposing matchups, and served as the conduit through which many of France's moves leading to goals went. The tournament clearly established Kanté as the world's best defensive midfielder.

I'll go a step further than that; in my opinion, N'Golo Kanté is the best defensive midfielder since Rino Gattuso was in his prime (who, by the way, is the player whom I consider to be the greatest defensive midfielder ever).

You can give me names such as Xabi Alonso, Claude Makélélé, Sergio Busquets, Yaya Touré, and so many others - at his peak, I'm taking Kanté over all of them.

Perhaps the most obvious example of the "Kanté effect" was shown through what happened to his former club Leicester City after his departure.

With Kanté on the team, the Foxes defied the odds to beat every other leading team in the Premier League and win the league title in the 2015-16 season. In the ensuing off-season, Chelsea paid £32 million to sign Kanté. The effects of the signing were instant; Chelsea easily won the 2016-17 Premier League and also reached the final of the FA Cup. Leicester, on the other hand, finished 12th despite keeping almost everyone else who had been on their league-winning squad from the previous season.

For his efforts that season, Kanté would be named the Premier League's Player of the Season and finished in the top 10 of the 2017 Ballon d'Or rankings. At this point, it was now obvious: Leicester's success during the previous season had not been primarily due to Jamie Vardy, Riyad Mahrez, Kasper Schmeichel, Wes Morgan, or even Claudio Ranieri. That Leicester team was Kanté's team from start to finish, and Leicester's and Kanté's respective performances since his departure from Leicester have proven this fact.

Whether for club or country, Kanté is truly "the straw that stirs the drink" - no matter how great the players around him are, the team simply will not function as it should without Kanté. He is one of a select few players in the world of whom such a compliment can be paid.

With Euro 2020 less than a year away, France have the opportunity to go one better than their runner-up finish in the 2016 edition. If Kanté is once again at the top of his game during the tournament, they have an excellent chance to go all the way and win their third continental crown.

History also beckons in another way for Kanté - should he remain at this level for three more years and anchor a successful defense of France's World Cup title in Qatar in 2022, I believe that the Parisian will go down as the undisputed greatest defensive midfielder of all time.

Friday, October 4, 2019

The Weekly Take, Issue 83: Have They Blown Their Chance to Be Contenders?

One of the standout matches of the Champions League's second matchday saw Inter Milan travel to Camp Nou to take on Barcelona. Lautaro Martínez opened the scoring for Inter in the second minute, but two goals scored by Luis Suárez ensured that the Catalan club would finish the match with the victory.

Despite a generally strong start to the season which has included six consecutive Serie A victories, one cannot help but feel that this past transfer window, Inter had a chance to make the leap and become genuine contenders to win the Champions League. However, it now appears that they may have missed a golden opportunity.

During the previous transfer window, the Nerazzurri spent over €150 million on new signings. The most notable of these was Romelu Lukaku. Inter paid Manchester United €65 million to bring the Belgian centre-forward to the San Siro. Other key additions to Inter's squad included Diego Godín, Alexis Sánchez, and Valentino Lazaro. They also made a coaching change; former Juventus and Chelsea head coach Antonio Conte replaced Luciano Spalletti in the Inter dugout.

Considering all the ways in which Inter upgraded, one might assume that they would have entered this season as one of the leading contenders to win the Champions League. However, such has proven not to be the case.

It is evident that Inter's long-term plan is to build the team around Martínez, and for good reason - the Argentine seems to be a star in the making. If he reaches his ceiling, he could certainly prove to be the foundational piece of a Champions League-winning team.

However, although Inter certainly brought in some solid players who will do well to play supporting roles at the club, one should also consider the immense total sum spent by the Milan club. Inter could easily have added a genuine superstar to their roster.

For example, Matthijs de Ligt was signed from Ajax by Inter's Serie A rivals Juventus for €75 million. In theory, Inter could have signed de Ligt while still making all the signings they actually made with the exception of Lukaku. If they had done so, they would even have spent €5 million less than they actually did. Furthermore, not only is de Ligt a superstar-level player already, but he is still just 20 and not even close to his expected prime. Lukaku is 26 and thus already in the prime of his career. The level at which he is playing now is likely to be his ceiling. De Ligt is not only better than Lukaku now; his ceiling is several levels higher than Lukaku's.

Frenkie de Jong, who was de Ligt's teammate at Ajax last season, also left the Dutch club for the same price; he signed for Barça during the off-season and was in their starting line-up against Inter. Once again, given his age, cost, level of performance, and sky-high potential, Inter once again missed an outstanding opportunity by not signing de Jong. This is especially true given the fact that probably Inter's biggest weakness right now is their central midfield; the signing of de Jong would have remedied that.

Inter could even have chosen to go all-in and made a play for a player who was clearly too good for the team he had around him and would therefore have thrived following a move to a better club. Players such as Harry Kane, N'Golo Kanté, and Lukaku's former United teammate Paul Pogba come to mind. None of these players are likely to be anywhere near a Champions League title at their current club. Considering the surrounding talent that Inter already had at their disposal, such a player could have been the missing piece they needed all along. Either Kanté or Pogba would have been especially helpful to the team because they would have bolstered Inter's weakest position.

Around a year ago, I mentioned in a post I wrote then that a team needs more than one elite-level player to have a realistic chance of winning the Champions League. It looks as though Lautaro Martínez is on his way to becoming such a player. However, if Inter Milan never add another player of comparable quality or potential, it seems unlikely that their current core will ever seriously challenge for the biggest prize in European club football.

Wednesday, October 2, 2019

The Weekly Take, Issue 82: An Unexpected Breakout Performance

Before I begin, I would just like to state that the fact that Issue 82 happens to be about a match between Manchester United and Arsenal is a complete coincidence. I did not plan for this to happen; the schedule just worked out that way.

In a Premier League match which will likely go on to have major implications towards the chase for a top-four league spot this season and thus a place in next season's Champions League, Manchester United and Arsenal played to a 1-1 draw. It was something of a war of attrition - a back-and-forth, scrappy encounter. Scott McTominay scored a spectacular goal to put United in the lead heading into halftime, but a VAR-assisted goal scored by Arsenal's Gabonese superstar Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang earned the Gunners a share of the points.

Before the match, if you had asked most people who would be man of the match, names such as Aubameyang, Paul Pogba, David de Gea, or Granit Xhaka might have been mentioned. Not many, however, would have seen the dominant performance of McTominay coming.

Playing in just the 38th league match of his young career, the Scotsman who is in his first season as a starter for the Red Devils put on a clinic in central midfield. Not only did McTominay score a highlight-reel goal, but he also refused to back off from any tackles, had his passing on point throughout the match, and completely outplayed Arsenal captain Xhaka, who was his opposing matchup. Although he had only been a benchwarmer throughout his career prior to this season, he certainly didn't play like one against the North Londoners.

Ever since Pogba returned to Old Trafford in 2016, he has clearly established himself as arguably the best player on the team (some may claim that United's best player is de Gea, but Pogba does have a case himself). However, United's preferred 4-2-3-1 formation requires that they field two in the middle; usually one defensive midfielder and one central midfielder. Although Pogba is able to play at either the #6 or #8 position, the Frenchman is clearly more suited to the deeper role, as is implied by his jersey number. Thus, United have been searching for a suitable midfield partner whose game is a suitable complement to Pogba's, but to no avail until perhaps now.

Although Nemanja Matić and Ander Herrera are certainly capable players, one issue faced by United lay in the fact that both were more natural defensive midfielders than central ones. Thus, their skillsets often overlapped with Pogba's in certain ways, leading to redundancy in certain areas and weaknesses in others. Marouane Fellaini, meanwhile, was never really able to adapt to United's style of play and ended his troubled five-and-a-half years in Manchester in January 2019 when he left for Shandong Luneng.

From what McTominay showed during the match against the Gunners, it may be the case that he does indeed have what it takes to establish himself as a regular starter for both now and in years to come. He has already taken over Matić's role as a starter. This is a positive sign for United because McTominay is still just 22, while Matić is 31 and is now heading towards the back end of his career.

Manchester United have always had a history of solid British central midfielders from Bryan Robson to Paul Ince to Paul Scholes to Michael Carrick; McTominay may yet go on to be the next of this lineage. While none were truly great enough for a team to be built around them, all proved to be solid second or third options at their best. That is a level which I can foresee McTominay reaching if the rest of his career pans out ideally.

Of course, it's far too early to make any wild predictions about a player who, as I mentioned earlier, has only played 38 league matches in his career. His performance against Arsenal may not necessarily have been a genuine breakout match; it might just have been a one-off and nothing more.

However, that same performance clearly displayed the potential that McTominay has. It is certainly possible that United have found their starting central midfielder for the next five years or more.