The Weekly Take, Issue 357: The Champions League Title Starts to Slip Away

With Bayern Munich likely to reclaim the Bundesliga title which they stunningly surrendered to Bayer Leverkusen last season, the Bavarian powerhouse’s attention was now firmly on their Champions League quarterfinal against Inter Milan. A win would put Bayern in the semifinals for the second season in a row.

However, Bayern will have their work cut out for them when they head to the San Siro next week after losing the first leg 2-1 at home. Inter opened the scoring in the 38th minute via a spectacular trivela goal by Lautaro Martínez that caught Bayern goalkeeper Jonas Urbig completely off-guard. Although Bayern went into the break a goal behind, they were the team largely in control of the flow of the game; it did seem as though at some point, Bayern would find an equalizer.

After continuing to push throughout the second half, Bayern did indeed make it 1-1 deep into the second half. Just over five minutes before the end of regulation time, Thomas Müller finished off Konrad Laimer’s pass with a half-volley. It was fitting that Müller found the net for Bayern after having recently announced that he’d be leaving the Allianz Arena at the end of the season after a legendary 17-year career at Bayern.

However, at least as far as the first leg would be concerned, Bayern and Müller would be denied their fairytale ending. Only about three minutes after Müller’s goal, Davide di Frattesi scored Inter Milan’s winning goal, ensuring that the Nerazzurri would have the advantage heading into the second leg.

There are several key points to pick out as the main reasons behind Bayern’s loss - but among them, the most important has to be the fact that head coach Vincent Kompany completely bungled his tactics. Many have been skeptical of the Belgian ever since he was hired in the most recent off-season; this was understandable given the fact that his most notable achievement to date was reaching the final of the Belgian Cup in 2022 with Anderlecht - not even close to the level that he’d be expected to be at in the Bayern dugout.

There were three obvious errors that Kompany made in his tactical setup. The most notable was his decision to choose Raphaël Guerreiro over Müller as the starting attacking midfielder. There was no reason whatsoever to do so because this specific match-up favored Müller’s playstyle rather than Guerreiro’s - something Kompany obviously missed entirely. Not surprisingly, Guerreiro was among Bayern’s worst players against Inter because, as predicted, Inter’s tactical setup largely neutralized Guerreiro. By the time Guerreiro was replaced by Serge Gnabry in the 74th minute, it was too late - Bayern had already blown several opportunities which they might have taken with someone else on the pitch; they would be made to pay for those later.

While his big-game struggles have been known for a while now, Harry Kane once again failed to deliver under the brightest lights and highest pressure with a dismal showing, squandering multiple major goalscoring chances. Despite being unquestionably the greatest striker to ever come out of England, Kane has time and again wilted under the spotlight; this match against Inter was no exception. Although Kane will likely put an end to his infamous trophyless career record this season unless Bayern somehow fumble the Bundesliga title, this match once again showed why, for all that he has accomplished throughout his career and despite his standing as an all-time great, he still falls short of that highest echelon - the “inner circle” of those all-time greats.

Finally, even if Bayern were to overturn the deficit and beat Inter to advance to the semifinals, the biggest issue that faces them is probably this: they don’t have that one guy who can single-handedly take over the match and put the team on his back. As of right now, the clear title favorites are Barcelona who have Lamine Yamal filling that most important of roles. It’s very difficult to win the Champions League without a bona fide superstar on that tier - and Bayern don’t have one.

Although it’s too soon to completely dismiss Bayern Munich’s chances of winning the Champions League, things certainly don’t look good at the moment. They’re working not only against their recent track record, but also historical precedent. Unless something changes soon, Bayern likely won’t be bringing the Champions League trophy back to Bavaria for the sixth time.

The Weekly Take, Issue 356: Wait, Haven't We Seen This Before?

Chelsea moved a step closer to clinching a spot in next season’s Champions League by beating Tottenham 1-0 in a London derby which went according to the script - after all, the vast majority of people expected this to be won by the Blues, given Tottenham’s dismal season that’s seen them end up all the way down in 14th place in the Premier League.

The only goal of this match at Stamford Bridge came just after half-time. Cole Palmer sent in a perfect cross which Enzo Fernández finished off with a close-range header. Both teams would subsequently have a goal waved off via VAR; Moisés Caicedo wasn’t quite able to put Chelsea two goals ahead after his goal fell afoul of a VAR check. Later on, Pape Matar Sarr’s would-be equalizer experienced the same fate.

When things wrapped up, there was clearly one player who, as he has done on so many occasions this season, stood head and shoulders above the rest - and who else could it have been but Chelsea ace Cole Palmer? The Manchester-born midfielder has been almost single-handedly carrying Chelsea over the course of this season and last; without him, Chelsea wouldn’t have even come close to qualifying for the Europa Conference League. This time around, they’re very much in contention for a Champions  League berth by finishing in the top four.

Out of everyone who’s part of the six clubs who could realistically finish in any of the lower two Champions League qualification spots, Palmer is the best player who doesn’t play for Manchester City by a considerable distance. He has transformed Chelsea ever since breaking out as a bona fide superstar last season, turning them from a mere punchline to a team which actually appears to have a semblance of legitimacy about it. In 2022-23, the season before Palmer was brought to Stamford Bridge, Chelsea finished just 12th in the league - their worst league finish since the 1993-94 campaign when they ended up all the way down in 14th. Their turnaround since then has almost been completely due to Palmer.

As of right now, there’s a case to be made that Palmer is already one of the top 10 players in the world at just 22 years old. Likely still several years away from his absolute peak, Palmer is primed to become a perennial Ballon d’Or contender once he gets there.

This, however, does bring up a question - and it’s one which will be very familiar to many Chelsea fans: just how will the club build around Palmer? Years ago when Chelsea had Eden Hazard on the roster, year after year Chelsea spent money on the wrong guys to surround him with - legendary defensive midfielder N'Golo Kanté being one of the rare exceptions. Having understandably run out of patience by then, it was little surprise that Hazard eventually left Chelsea for Real Madrid in the 2019 off-season after a seven-year stint at Chelsea. While there’s no guarantee that this will be what will eventually happen to Palmer, the signs so far aren’t exactly promising.

With the possible exception of the loan acquisition of Jadon Sancho from Manchester United, none of the players which Chelsea have brought in this season have moved the needle in any way. This is especially galling when one considers the fact that Chelsea have spent over £200 million on player transfers this season. To make matters worse, they even parted with Ian Maatsen, Romelu Lukaku, and Conor Gallagher - all players who would’ve certainly contributed to their top-four push.

Ever since Todd Boehly bought Chelsea in May 2022, it’s been more of the same when compared to the Roman Abramovich years - if not even worse. Again and again, Boehly has spent recklessly on players who don’t fit the direction in which Chelsea ought to be heading; as of right now, Chelsea are completely failing at building a team around Palmer. If this keeps up, it could be very possible that Palmer leaves at some point within the next five years.

Players at Cole Palmer’s level are the rarest commodity in football and the centerpiece around which a truly elite team can be built. However, it appears that history is starting to repeat itself at Chelsea - and based on the last few years, it’s more likely than not that they will double down on their current approach.